Core Viewpoint - The RBC report indicates that the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict could lead to a significant decline in the U.S. stock market, potentially dragging the S&P 500 index down to the range of 4800-5200 points, representing a possible drop of up to 20% [1][2] Group 1: Risks to the Stock Market - Valuation Risk: The S&P 500 index's price-to-earnings ratio tends to contract during periods of rising geopolitical uncertainty, and current valuations are close to historical highs, making them susceptible to negative news [1][2] - Market Sentiment Impact: The escalation of the Middle East situation may negatively affect consumer, investor, and corporate sentiment, which has been a key driver of recent stock market gains [2][3] - Oil Price Surge: If the conflict disrupts supply in the Middle East, oil prices may rise further, potentially increasing inflation and limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates in 2025 [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Consumer Confidence: Recent surveys indicate that CEO confidence has dropped to a three-year low, reflecting heightened caution among businesses and consumers [2] - Inflation Projections: RBC estimates that the conflict could push the preferred inflation measure of the Federal Reserve, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation, up by as much as 4%, which may restrict the Fed to only two rate cuts in the latter half of the year [3] - Year-End Target Adjustments: RBC has raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index to 5730 points, indicating a potential downside of 4% from current levels [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - Northcoast Research has downgraded GE Aerospace's stock rating from "Buy" to "Neutral" due to concerns over current valuation levels after a significant price increase of 36% in recent weeks, surpassing the $235 mark [1][2] Group 1: Stock Performance and Valuation - GE Aerospace's stock price has risen significantly, attributed to easing global trade tensions, manageable impacts of import tariffs on the aerospace supply chain, improved transparency in commercial aircraft production, and positive signals from the industry [1] - The stock has exceeded Northcoast's previously set target price, with the recent gains primarily driven by short-term trading sentiment [1] - The rapid expansion of valuation has diminished long-term investment appeal, especially given the notable divergence in perceptions of the industry's outlook between aerospace suppliers and capital markets [1] Group 2: Key Concerns and Recommendations - The core contradictions leading to the rating adjustment include: 1. The stock price increase has already factored in benefits from reduced trade friction and improved production expectations, limiting further upside potential [2] 2. Profitability expectations within the aerospace supply chain still face macro risks from the stalemate in U.S. trade policy and fluctuations in end-user demand [2] 3. There is a lack of consensus within the industry regarding the stability of the supply chain and the sustainability of orders [2] - Investors are advised to adopt a wait-and-see approach until trade conditions become clearer and the risks of declining profitability in the aerospace sector are fully addressed [2]