Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Gold**: Fed personnel changes boost easing expectations, gold tariff news causes price fluctuations. With a new dovish Fed outlook, gold prices are expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to -2.2 yuan/gram [4]. - **Silver**: Silver prices follow gold prices, showing a short - term decline and then a rebound. With the recovery of risk appetite and the improvement of domestic commodity sentiment, silver prices are expected to be bullish [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 前日回顾 (Previous Day's Review) - **Gold**: U.S. stock indexes rose, European indexes were mixed, U.S. bond yields increased, the dollar index rose, and COMEX gold futures rose 0.13% to $3458.2 per ounce. The Fed's personnel change pushed up easing expectations, and the gold tariff news led to price oscillations [4]. - **Silver**: Silver prices followed gold prices, rebounding after a short - term decline. COMEX silver futures rose 0.56% to $38.51 per ounce [6]. 3.2 每日提示 (Daily Tips) - **Gold**: The basis is - 3.38, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures remains unchanged at 36045 kg; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above it; the main net position is long, but the main long position decreased [4][5]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 40, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 8049 kg to 1158387 kg; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above it; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased [6][7]. 3.3 今日关注 (Today's Focus) - Japan's stock market is closed for "Mountain Day". - At 16:00, Italy's July CPI final value and June trade balance will be released. - China's July M2 and other money supply, January - July social financing scale increment, and new RMB loans may be released [16]. 3.4 基本面数据 (Fundamental Data) - **Gold**: Bullish factors include global turmoil, rising U.S. stagflation expectations, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East, and tariff concerns. Bearish factors involve Trump's new policies, improved U.S. economic expectations, significant interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and black swan events [11][15]. - **Silver**: Bullish factors are similar to those of gold, and the tariff on non - ferrous metals supports silver prices. Bearish factors are also similar to those of gold [14][15]. 3.5 持仓数据 (Position Data) - **Gold**: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 2.86% to 231,526 on August 8 compared to August 7, the short position increased by 0.28% to 61,173, and the net position increased by 3.82% to 170,353 [29]. - **Silver**: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 1.78% to 353,481 on August 8 compared to August 7, the short position decreased by 3.11% to 261,474, and the net position increased by 18.83% to 92,007 [32].

Group 1 - Russian President Putin expressed interest in a summit with US President Trump, suggesting the UAE as a suitable location for the meeting [1][3] - Putin indicated he is open to meeting Ukrainian President Zelensky but stated that conditions for such a meeting are not yet met [1][3] - US officials, including Trump, have indicated a potential meeting could occur soon, with discussions about a possible trilateral meeting involving Ukraine [1][4] Group 2 - Trump's recent discussions with European leaders and Zelensky suggest he is optimistic about the possibility of a ceasefire agreement [4][5] - US Secretary of State Rubio mentioned that Russia has provided some specific examples of conditions for a ceasefire, which are now being compared with actions from Ukraine and European allies [4][6] - There are concerns that a meeting between Trump and Putin may not yield substantial results, as experts believe it could serve as a political tool for Putin [6][9] Group 3 - The potential for continued US sanctions against Russia remains uncertain, with Trump previously issuing an ultimatum for Russia to end hostilities by August 8 [8] - Analysts suggest that any sanctions imposed by Trump may be symbolic, as the effectiveness of previous sanctions has diminished [8][9] - There is speculation that Putin may use the summit to negotiate terms that would solidify Russia's territorial gains in Ukraine [9]

Core Viewpoint - German Chancellor Merz stated that if Russia is unwilling to accept mediation from the Vatican, it indicates that Russia has no intention of reaching a ceasefire agreement or even a peace agreement [1] Group 1 - The statement reflects the current geopolitical tensions and the challenges in achieving peace in the region [1] - The mention of the Vatican's role in mediation highlights the involvement of religious and neutral entities in international conflict resolution [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Ukraine is continuously violating the ceasefire agreement, while Russia claims to be adhering to it [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. President Trump expresses hope for a mutually acceptable ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine, indicating that failure to adhere to such an agreement will lead to further sanctions from the U.S. and its partners [1] Group 1 - The U.S. administration is actively monitoring the situation between Russia and Ukraine regarding ceasefire agreements [1] - There is a clear warning that non-compliance with the ceasefire could result in escalated sanctions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Kremlin has stated that it will respond if Ukraine violates the ceasefire agreement [1] Group 1 - The Kremlin's warning indicates a potential escalation in tensions between Russia and Ukraine [1]

俄乌局势又有了新变化。 据多家媒体报道，基于美持续施压、乌克兰总统泽连斯基对美方停火协议框架中包括领土问题及乌不加 入北约等内容的明确拒绝等原因，原计划于23日在伦敦举行的乌克兰问题会谈已推迟。另外，美国国务 卿鲁比奥缺席原定于23日在伦敦举行的乌克兰问题会谈。 而美国总统特朗普23日再向乌克兰施压，指责泽连斯基日前的"煽动性言论"阻碍解决俄乌冲突。 泽连斯基拒绝美方停火协议框架内容 乌克兰、英国、法国和美国代表原计划于23日在伦敦举行会谈，讨论俄乌停火等问题；但据多家英国和 美国媒体报道，此次会谈已经被推迟。 根据此前透露出来的消息，各方对于会谈内容仍然存在分歧。 据乌克兰国家通讯社22日报道，泽连斯基当天向媒体表示，在达成停火后，乌方愿意以"任何形式"坐到 谈判桌前，但永远不会承认被占领土属于俄罗斯。"乌克兰不会承认(俄方)对克里米亚的合法占领，在 这个问题上没什么好谈的，这超出了我们的宪法规定"。 特朗普指责泽连斯基这番言论对与俄罗斯的和平谈判"非常有害"，称这种"煽动性言论"使得俄乌冲突难 以解决，只会延长杀戮。 特朗普还说，现在离达成协议已经很近了，泽连斯基应该立刻把协议搞定。 美媒：美官员首次直白 ...

据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普3 0日在接受美国媒体采访时表示， 他对俄罗斯总统普京"非常生气"，如果因俄罗斯的原因导致俄乌不能达成 停火协议，美国可能对俄罗斯石油买家征收"二级关税"。 特朗普当天在接受美国全国广播公司电话采访时说， 他对于普京最近批评乌克兰总统泽连斯基的可信度等言论"非常生气"和"恼火"。 如果他 与俄方无法就停止在乌克兰的流血冲突达成协议，并且他认定是俄罗斯的责任，那美国将对所有来自俄罗斯的石油征收"二级关税"。"这意味 着如果你从俄罗斯购买石油，你就不能在美国做生意了……所有石油将被征收2 5%的关税，所有石油将被征收2 5%到5 0%的关税。" 特朗普说，如果俄乌停火协议没有达成，这一关税措施将在一个月内生效。 特朗普还表示，普京知道他很生气，但他与普京"关系很好"， 两人计划下周再次进行沟通。 对于特朗普这些说法，目前俄方暂无回应。 图/央视新闻 普京提议在联合国监督下在乌设立机构组织民主选举 普京提议可以讨论在联合国的监督下与美国、欧洲和俄罗斯的伙伴国家在乌克兰建立临时管理机构，以在乌克兰进行民主选举并产生具有法律 效力的政府。 俄外交部称，建立这一临时管理机构的 首要条件是冲突各 ...

最新消息。 目前俄乌双方仍在库尔斯克方向展开激战。库尔斯克州位于俄罗斯西南部，与乌克兰接壤，其地理位置使得这一地区成为俄乌冲突中的重要战场。 特朗普3月14日早些时候发文说，数千名乌克兰士兵正被俄罗斯军队"完全包围"，处境非常糟糕，"我强烈要求普京总统饶他们一命"。俄罗斯总统普京14日晚 说，在库尔斯克州的乌克兰士兵如果选择投降，俄方将确保其生命安全。当天，乌克兰武装部队总参谋部否认库尔斯克乌军被包围。 特朗普：要求普京饶乌军一命 普京：乌军投降将性命无忧 当地时间3月14日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体上发文表示，美方于13日与俄罗斯总统普京进行了"非常好且富有成效的"讨论，俄乌冲突很有可能最终结 束。 特朗普称，此时此刻，数千名乌克兰士兵正被俄罗斯军队"完全包围"，处境非常糟糕，"我强烈要求普京总统饶他们一命"。 俄罗斯总统普京14日晚说，在库尔斯克州的乌克兰士兵如果选择投降，俄方将确保其生命安全。 普京与俄罗斯联邦安全会议成员举行视频会议时说，俄方理解美国总统特朗普呼吁对这些士兵给予人道主义考虑的立场。为此，俄方想强调，如果他们投 降，俄方将依据国际法准则和俄联邦法律保证他们性命无忧和获得体面待遇。乌军高 ...