笔记财经晨会 . 有观点的财经晨会 点击上方 蓝字"笔记财经晨会" 关注我们 亲爱的笔友们，今天可是 2025 年最后一天啦！提前祝大家元旦快乐，新年行大运！感谢各位一整年的陪伴和支持，咱们揣着今年的收获，带着对明年的期待，一起 蹦进 2026 ～ 【20251231笔记晨会】 以下文章来源于笔记财经晨会 ，作者笔记小助手 一、权益市场：人形机器人成"顶流"，市场分化震荡还在继续 1. 人形机器人赛道： （1）核心传言：两个大信号把赛道炒热了 政策端： 特朗普政府正琢磨着2026年搞个机器人专项行政命令，专门扶持人形机器人产业。 现在政策框架已经在讨论了，大概率是"组合拳"出击，力度 不会小。 产业端： 特斯拉的Optimus（擎朗）要开始对外发包了，眼瞅着就到日子了。最近国内外的核心供应商都组团往北美跑，跟特斯拉团队对接 ——确认技 术、规划产能、谈订单，这可是项目从"实验室里的花架子"变成"批量生产的真家伙"最明确的信号！ （2）政策逻辑：美国"制造业回流"，没人可用只能靠机器人 核心痛点：美国制造业现在难到家了——一方面工人工资贼高（工厂平均时薪快38美元了），另一方面还招不到人（缺工超80万）。 光靠 ...

Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as the greatest investment opportunity of the current era, with a strong emphasis on the urgent need for energy to support its growth [1][2][3] - A specific company is highlighted as a key player in the AI energy sector, owning critical energy infrastructure assets that are essential for meeting the increasing energy demands of AI technologies [3][7] Investment Opportunity - Wall Street is investing heavily in AI, with hundreds of billions directed towards developing smarter technologies, but there is a looming question regarding the energy supply needed to sustain this growth [2] - The company in focus is positioned to benefit from the surge in demand for electricity driven by AI data centers, making it a potentially lucrative investment opportunity [3][8] Company Profile - The company is described as a "toll booth" operator in the AI energy boom, collecting fees from energy exports and poised to capitalize on the onshoring trend due to tariffs [5][6] - It possesses significant nuclear energy infrastructure assets, making it a central player in the future of clean and reliable power in the U.S. [7] Financial Position - The company is noted for being debt-free and holding a substantial cash reserve, which is approximately one-third of its market capitalization, providing it with a strong financial foundation [8][10] - It is trading at a low valuation of less than 7 times earnings, indicating potential for significant upside as it is linked to both AI and energy sectors [10][11] Market Trends - The article discusses the broader trends of AI disruption across industries, emphasizing that companies embracing AI will thrive while those resistant to change may struggle [11][12] - The influx of talent into the AI sector is expected to drive continuous innovation and advancements, reinforcing the importance of investing in this field [12][13] Future Outlook - The article suggests that the future is heavily reliant on AI, and the time to invest is immediate, with potential returns exceeding 100% within 12 to 24 months [13][15] - The combination of AI infrastructure needs, energy demands, and the onshoring boom presents a unique investment landscape that the company is well-positioned to navigate [14]

Artificial intelligence is the greatest investment opportunity of our lifetime. The time to invest in groundbreaking AI is now, and this stock is a steal! AI is eating the world—and the machines behind it are ravenous. Each ChatGPT query, each model update, each robotic breakthrough consumes massive amounts of energy. In fact, AI is already pushing global power grids to the brink. Wall Street is pouring hundreds of billions into artificial intelligence—training smarter chatbots, automating industries, and b ...

Group 1 - The article discusses an unusual phenomenon in the international financial and commodity markets, specifically the panic-driven accumulation of copper inventories in the US, which now accounts for nearly half of the global copper stock [1][3] - The US's copper consumption is limited, and the current inventory levels indicate a strategic panic rather than normal business operations, with Europe also aggressively purchasing aluminum [3][6] - The appreciation of the offshore RMB against the USD, projected to break the 7.0 mark by December 2025, is linked to the unusual copper inventory situation, suggesting a broader struggle for global pricing power [5][6] Group 2 - The article argues that the traditional understanding of currency fluctuations benefiting exports and imports is outdated, as the current situation reflects a strategic maneuver in a global power struggle [8][10] - The US has recognized the limitations of relying solely on financial power, especially when supply chain disruptions occur, prompting a shift in strategy towards "decoupling" and "reshoring" manufacturing [11][13] - The strengthening of the RMB is seen as a tactical response to pressure from the West, with China opting to appreciate its currency rather than devalue it, which could lead to a price increase for Chinese goods [15][17] Group 3 - The concept of "anti-involution" is introduced as a response to the RMB appreciation, aiming to prevent destructive price competition among businesses and encouraging price increases to maintain profitability [19][21] - The strategy involves a "cleaning up" of the industry, where weaker companies relying on low prices will struggle to survive, allowing market share to concentrate among stronger firms [25][27] - The article emphasizes that only by ensuring the survival of leading companies can China transition from being a large manufacturing base to a strong one, capable of investing in advanced technologies [29][31] Group 4 - China's trade surplus has reached a historic high, indicating that despite tariffs and currency appreciation, Western countries continue to rely on Chinese goods, highlighting the latter's indispensable role in global supply chains [31][33] - The article posits that this situation reflects a strategic advantage for China, as it maintains control over essential supply chains in various sectors, including renewable energy and high-tech components [33][34] - The overarching narrative suggests that understanding these trends is crucial for navigating the investment landscape, as the future wealth logic is being shaped by these dynamics [36]

Artificial intelligence is the greatest investment opportunity of our lifetime. The time to invest in groundbreaking AI is now, and this stock is a steal! AI is eating the world—and the machines behind it are ravenous. Each ChatGPT query, each model update, each robotic breakthrough consumes massive amounts of energy. In fact, AI is already pushing global power grids to the brink. Wall Street is pouring hundreds of billions into artificial intelligence—training smarter chatbots, automating industries, and b ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the complex realities behind the global restructuring of supply chains, driven by geopolitical factors, which has led to higher costs, slower processes, and increased fragility in manufacturing [1][2]. Group 1: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Manufacturing is not simply "returning" but is becoming "more expensive, slower, and more fragile" due to geopolitical influences [2]. - The interplay of technology, finance, labor, and resources is creating a multi-faceted competition that is reshaping global supply chains [2]. - The rise of regionalization and fragmentation in global supply chains is a significant trend that companies must prepare for [2]. Group 2: Technological Decoupling - The costs of technological decoupling include fragmentation of global innovation and standards, as well as a decline in supply chain integration capabilities [4]. - Increased technological barriers among countries complicate industry cooperation and hinder efforts for standardization [4]. - Geopolitical risks are driving companies to increase liquidity assets, which in turn reduces domestic R&D investments and raises intermediate goods trade costs [4]. Group 3: Labor Market Challenges - Labor rights disputes and structural imbalances in labor markets are significant challenges in the reconfiguration of supply chains [5]. - In traditional outsourcing locations like Mexico, rising strike rates in key industries highlight labor dissatisfaction, which disrupts supply chain continuity [5]. - The mismatch between labor skills and industry demands in economies advocating for manufacturing return is slowing down the restructuring process [5]. Group 4: High Costs of Manufacturing Return - The high costs associated with manufacturing return are undermining the effectiveness of policy incentives [6]. - Structural issues such as high local manufacturing costs and inflation are exacerbating the challenges of returning manufacturing to the U.S. [6]. - The rising cost of capital and declining confidence in long-term U.S. Treasury bonds reflect a broader concern about the investment environment [6]. Group 5: Trade Policy Impacts - High trade barriers can provide short-term benefits but lead to long-term negative consequences for industries [7]. - The reintroduction of tariffs under the Trump administration aimed to reshape global supply chains but had limited effectiveness [7]. - The restructuring of global supply chains involves not only capacity reallocation but also significant adjustments in financial order and settlement systems [7]. Group 6: De-dollarization Trends - Emerging markets are increasingly adopting local currency settlements in trade, reflecting a shift away from reliance on the U.S. dollar [8]. - The weakening of the U.S. credit mechanism is accelerating the de-dollarization process, with countries seeking alternatives to mitigate currency risks [8]. - The share of the U.S. dollar in global central bank reserves has decreased significantly, indicating a long-term trend towards de-dollarization [8]. Group 7: Regional Currency Networks - The establishment of regional currency settlement networks is becoming a complementary effort to the regionalization of supply chains [9]. - Initiatives like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership are promoting local currency exchange mechanisms to enhance trade efficiency [9]. - Central bank digital currencies, such as the digital yuan, are emerging as potential new vehicles for cross-border settlements [9]. Group 8: New Competitive Dynamics - The formation of a new competitive landscape reflects the division of standards between the Global North and South, particularly in technology and resources [10]. - The disparity in technological capabilities is creating a polarized global supply chain, complicating innovation and cooperation [10]. - Resource nationalism is becoming a critical factor in global supply chain dynamics, as countries seek to protect their strategic resources [10].

Artificial intelligence is the greatest investment opportunity of our lifetime. The time to invest in groundbreaking AI is now, and this stock is a steal! AI is eating the world—and the machines behind it are ravenous. Each ChatGPT query, each model update, each robotic breakthrough consumes massive amounts of energy. In fact, AI is already pushing global power grids to the brink. Wall Street is pouring hundreds of billions into artificial intelligence—training smarter chatbots, automating industries, and b ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The European Union announced a comprehensive plan for grid upgrades, expecting to invest €1.2 trillion by 2040, with €730 billion allocated for distribution networks and €240 billion for hydrogen networks. The plan anticipates an average annual investment of €80 billion, compared to the current annual investment of €50-60 billion. This investment will cover power interconnection, energy storage, and hydrogen sectors. The EU aims to reduce industrial electricity prices to enhance the export competitiveness of its industrial products [2][3] Summary by Sections Investment Opportunities - Domestic manufacturers are well-positioned in high-voltage transmission, smart meters, and wind power, with advanced technologies. China's high-voltage technology enables large-scale, long-distance power transmission, effectively addressing energy distribution issues, making it highly competitive in overseas grid construction. The global power grid upgrade cycle is expected to significantly benefit these companies [4] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in power equipment exports and recommends companies such as Siyi Electric, Igor, Jinpan Technology, TBEA, China XD Electric, Huaming Equipment, Shunma Power, Mingyang Electric, and Samsung Medical [4]

Artificial intelligence is the greatest investment opportunity of our lifetime. The time to invest in groundbreaking AI is now, and this stock is a steal! AI is eating the world—and the machines behind it are ravenous. Each ChatGPT query, each model update, each robotic breakthrough consumes massive amounts of energy. In fact, AI is already pushing global power grids to the brink. Wall Street is pouring hundreds of billions into artificial intelligence—training smarter chatbots, automating industries, and b ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 海外市场年度报告 2025 年 12 月 16 日 海外市场年度报告 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 先抑后扬 2026 年海外市场展望 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2026 年美国的经济可能会以中期选举和货币政策为主线，呈现先抑后扬的节奏。 中期选举：博弈加剧，内政为先。美国两党博弈仍在加剧，特朗普能否继续横扫面 临较大不确定性。1938 年以来，总统所在政党在 22 次选举中有 20 次都在众议院 选举中失利，唯二的两次例外都源于特殊情况。从中期选举的角度来看，2026 年 特朗普的政策倾向性有四方面：1）继续给大型科技企业提供税收优惠等方面的支 持。2）可能会针对中小企业和低收入人群进行一定支持，以平衡社会分化的问题。 3）加大力度推动"制造业回流"，但必要性并不高。4）关税政策预计会持续，但 整体力度会降低。整体的思路是在《大美丽法案》的基础 ...