纵观2025年，证券行业在波动的市场中绘就了一幅"大象起舞，黑马奔袭"图景：头部券商凭借全业务链 优势稳健领跑，中小券商则依靠差异化战略突围而出。业内人士认为，高活跃度的市场环境为券商业绩 增长提供了肥沃土壤，业务结构的优化与转型则铸就持续增长的内核。 超九成实现净利润增长 业绩增长成为券商2025年的核心主题。截至1月28日，共有21家券商披露2025年度业绩预告或快报，预 计合计实现净利润约1075.87亿元，同比增长近60%。其中，19家券商实现净利润增长，12家券商净利 润增长超50%，5家券商净利润增长超1倍。 从净利润增幅来看，合并后的国联民生证券2025年实现净利润20.08亿元，以同比超4倍的增幅居首位。 国联民生证券表示，公司探索科技、金融与产业的深度融合，以"协同赋能"和"内生增长"为主线提升综 合金融服务能力，证券投资、经纪及财富管理等业务条线实现显著增长。 湘财证券、麦高证券、华西证券及国泰海通证券紧随其后，构成了业绩倍增"阵营"。其中，华西证券把 握市场机遇，推动财富管理业务和投资业务均实现较高增长，预计实现净利润12.70亿元至16.50亿元， 同比增长74.76%至126.66% ...

Group 1 - Several listed brokerages have collectively forecast strong performance for 2025, with net profit growth rates ranging from 18.43% to 115% for firms like Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities [1] - Analysts predict an overall net profit increase of 40% to 60% for listed brokerages in 2025, indicating a significant recovery in industry sentiment [1] - The impressive performance of leading brokerages is expected to enhance investor confidence in the overall liquidity and profitability of the stock market, contributing to a sustained recovery in the capital market [1] Group 2 - A leadership change is occurring at China Tai Investment Management, with Jiang Tianfang set to replace Huang Wenqing as chairman, indicating a potential strategic shift in the company's operations [2] - Jiang Tianfang has a strong background in investment banking and has been with the company since 2015, suggesting continuity in expertise while possibly introducing new strategies [2] - The asset management business of China Tai Investment Management reported a total scale of 1057.51 billion yuan as of June 30, 2025, highlighting its significant market presence [2] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has listed the first China Securities A500 ETF, marking a significant step in the internationalization of Chinese assets [3] - The A500 ETF, managed by Huatai-PB, has a scale of 466.84 billion yuan, making it the largest of its kind in the market [3] - The listing of this ETF is expected to enhance the pricing power and influence of A-shares in the global capital market, attracting more international investment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The brokerage industry is experiencing significant profit growth, with many firms reporting substantial increases in net profits for 2025, indicating a strong recovery and potential for further gains in the sector [1][3]. Group 1: Performance Highlights - Guotai Haitong Securities expects a net profit of 27.53 billion to 28.01 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 111% to 115% [1]. - CITIC Securities reported a net profit exceeding 30 billion yuan for the first time, with a year-on-year increase of 38.64% [1]. - A total of 21 brokerages have disclosed their 2025 performance, with a combined net profit of approximately 104.82 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 58.14% [1]. Group 2: Industry Trends - 90.48% of the brokerages reported positive year-on-year growth, with five firms, including Guotai Haitong and Guolian Minsheng, achieving a doubling of net profit growth [1]. - The active trading environment has driven significant increases in market turnover and margin financing balances, supporting retail business growth and the recovery of proprietary trading [3]. - The brokerage sector is currently undervalued, with the CSI All Share Securities Companies Index showing only a 2.54% increase in 2025, lagging behind broader market indices [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict continued profit growth in 2026, driven by favorable policies and the potential for a revaluation of the sector [3]. - The current market conditions suggest that the brokerage sector, characterized by strong performance and low valuations, may see a rebound once trading constraints are lifted [4]. - The average daily trading volume and other high-frequency indicators indicate a positive trend for earnings growth in the near future [6].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 申万宏源集团股份有限公司（下称"申万宏源"，000166.SZ、06806.HK）去年净利润同比（与前一年同 期相较）增逾六成。 1月27日，申万宏源发布的《2025年度业绩预告》显示，报告期内，公司净利润为101.00亿元至111.00亿 元，比上年同期增长61.59%至77.59%。 2025年，申万宏源预计归属于上市公司股东的净利润91.00亿元至101.00亿元，比上年同期增长74.64% 至93.83%；归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益后的净利润90.30亿元至100.30亿元，比上年同期 增长78.05%至97.77%。 公告进一步指出，申万宏源全资子公司申万宏源证券有限公司（下称"申万宏源证券"）本报告期净利润 预计为100.00亿元至110.00亿元，比上年同期增长62.04%至78.24%；归属于母公司净利润预计为99.00亿 元至109.00亿元，比上年同期增长60.29%至76.48%。 | 股东名称 | 股东性质 | 持股 比例 | 持股数量 | 持有有限 售条件的 | | 质押、标记或冻结 情况 | | - ...

Core Viewpoint - Multiple listed securities firms are expected to report positive performance for 2025, with significant year-on-year profit growth anticipated across the sector [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Forecasts - Several securities firms, including China Merchants Securities, Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, Dongfang Securities, and Hongta Securities, have released performance forecasts indicating net profit growth of 18.43%, 74.64%-93.83%, 67.8%, and 59.05% respectively for 2025 [1][3]. - Citic Securities, a leading firm, reported a projected revenue of 748.3 billion yuan and a net profit of 300.51 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting year-on-year increases of 28.75% and 38.46% respectively [5][7]. - Dongfang Securities anticipates a revenue of 153.4 billion yuan, up 26.0%, and a net profit of 56.2 billion yuan, up 67.8% [4][7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend, with daily trading volume increasing significantly, reaching an average of 19.8 trillion yuan, a 67% year-on-year increase [8]. - The balance of margin financing and securities lending is projected to reach 2.5 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, marking a 36% increase [8]. - Analysts attribute the strong performance of securities firms to three main factors: a stable macroeconomic environment, increased market activity, and strategic upgrades within firms [8][9]. Group 3: Analyst Predictions - Analysts predict that the overall net profit of listed securities firms will grow by over 50% in 2025, driven by robust trading activity and improved brokerage income [9][10]. - Financial Street Securities forecasts a 53.24% year-on-year increase in daily trading volume, with brokerage income expected to rise by over 40% [9]. - According to analysts, the growth in net profit is primarily driven by brokerage and investment business performance [10].

| 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 6866.35 | | 52 周最高 | 7730.11 | | 52 周最低 | 5627.38 | 证券研究报告：证券Ⅱ|行业周报 发布时间：2026-01-26 行业投资评级 中性|维持 行业相对指数表现 -13% -9% -5% -1% 3% 7% 11% 15% 19% 23% 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 2025-08 2025-11 2026-01 证券Ⅱ 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:王泽军 SAC 登记编号:S1340525110003 Email:wangzejun@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《公告券商核心业务全面发力，印证 行业全面复苏》 - 2026.01.19 证券行业报告（2026.01.19-2026.01.23） 业绩高增落地，多驱动因素支撑盈利改善 ⚫ 投资要点 本周又有 3 家券商发布业绩公告，综合上周发布公告的两家券商 来看，2025 年券商业绩表现亮眼，头部及区域券商均实现显著盈利增 长，印证资本市场活力提升与行业转型成效。本周光大证券、国 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the wealth effect from medium to long-term capital entering the market will continue to drive retail funds into the market, leading to improved performance in the brokerage sector, supported by both allocation power and performance improvement [1] - The report recommends increasing holdings in quality leading brokerages that benefit from incremental capital entering the market, specifically mentioning Huatai Securities (601688.SH) and China International Capital Corporation (03908) [1] - The expected significant improvement in the performance of listed brokerages includes a year-on-year increase of 46.4% in net profit attributable to shareholders, with projected adjusted operating revenue rising by 34.1% to 565.7 billion yuan by 2025 [1] Group 2 - Active trading has driven a high increase in market transaction volume and margin financing balance, which supports the growth of retail business and self-operated business, contributing to the overall performance growth of brokerages [2] - For 2025, the brokerage and credit business is expected to contribute 50.4% to revenue growth, while investment business is projected to contribute 45.5% [2] - In retail business, the average daily trading volume of stock funds is expected to reach 20,576 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70%, and the average daily margin financing balance is projected to reach 20,793 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33% [2]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 【文/羽扇观金工作室】号称"牛市旗手"的券商板块，去年业绩陆续宣布。 此前中信证券于1月14日发布《2025年度业绩快报》。快报显示，2025年，中信证券实现营业收入 748.30亿元，同比（与前一年同期相较）增加28.75%；归属于母公司股东的净利润（下称"净利润"） 300.51亿元，同比增加38.46%。这也是中信证券历史首次全年净利润突破300亿元。同时，截至2025年 末，中信证券总资产2.08万亿元，较上一年同期增加了21.79%。 此外，西南证券16日发布的业绩预告也显示，2025年度预计实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润10.28亿 元至10.98亿元，同比增幅达47%至57%。对于业绩预增的核心原因，西南证券称主要是财富管理业务、 证券投资业务、投资银行业务同比大幅增长。 本文系观察者网独家稿件，未经授权，不得转载。 昨日（1月18日），国联民生发布公告，宣布预计公司2025年实现归母净利润20.08亿元，同比大增约 406%；扣除非经常性损益的净利润人民币也将达到19.44亿元，同比增长410%左右。 MACD金叉信号形 ...

近日，上市券商陆续披露2025年业绩预告或快报，"牛市旗手"上一年度的表现也逐一揭开谜底。 根据相关券商发布的公告，国联民生（601456）预计2025年实现归母净利润20.08亿元，同比大增约 406%；中信证券（600030）预计2025年实现归母净利润超300亿元，同比增长38.46%。 2025年，中国资本市场整体呈现上行趋势，市场交投活跃，A股主要指数均实现上涨，这无疑让投资者 对券商的整体业绩表现多了几分期待。有券商分析师预计，2025年43家上市券商扣非净利润合计或高达 2167亿元，同比增长55%。 净利大增逾4倍太抢眼 1月18日，国联民生公告称，经公司财务部门初步测算，预计2025年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利 润20.08亿元，与上年同期（法定披露数据）相比，将增加人民币16.11亿元，同比增长406%左右。 招商证券（600999）非银首席分析师郑积沙预计，2025年43家上市券商扣非净利润合计或高达2167亿 元，同比增长55%。分业务来看，根据2025年全年日均股基成交额及两融成交额来看，预计经纪和信用 业务收入或分别同比增长50%、43%；投行方面，2025年A股IPO/再融资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant performance growth of major securities firms in China, indicating a bullish trend in the market, with expectations of continued strong earnings in 2025 due to various factors including market conditions and strategic business integrations [1][5]. Group 1: Company Performance - Guolian Minsheng Securities announced an expected net profit of 2.008 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 406% [2][3]. - CITIC Securities reported a net profit of 30.051 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year growth of 38.46% [4]. - Southwest Securities anticipates a net profit between 1.028 billion yuan and 1.098 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 47% to 57% [4]. Group 2: Market Trends - The overall capital market in China is experiencing an upward trend, with increased trading activity and investor confidence, contributing to the strong performance of listed securities firms [3]. - Analysts predict that the combined net profit of 43 listed securities firms could reach 216.7 billion yuan in 2025, marking a 55% year-on-year increase [5]. Group 3: Business Segments - The growth in earnings is attributed to significant increases in brokerage, investment banking, and wealth management services, with brokerage and credit business revenues expected to grow by 50% and 43% respectively [5]. - Investment banking revenues are projected to increase by approximately 27% in 2025 due to a rise in A-share IPOs and refinancing activities [5]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment - Recent regulatory changes, including the introduction of a new derivative trading supervision management approach, are expected to enhance the development of derivative products and improve market stability [7]. - Adjustments to financing margin ratios are anticipated to bolster market resilience and support the long-term growth of securities firms' credit businesses [7][8].