1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April 2025, domestic thermal coal prices declined slightly. As of April 22, the quotation for 5500K at Qinhuangdao Port was 662 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan month - on - month and 157 yuan lower than the same period last year [1][8][69]. - The supply side of thermal coal faces strong pressure. In March 2025, the national raw coal output was 440 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%, setting a new record for the highest monthly output. The total supply was 479 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%. After entering April, the coal output in the main producing areas still increased slightly, and the import volume was expected to be close to that in March [1][17][69]. - The demand side is weak. April and May are the traditional off - seasons for thermal coal. As of April 17, the daily consumption of thermal coal in 8 coastal provinces and 17 inland provinces decreased week - on - week. The non - power industry coal demand is also suppressed by Sino - US trade frictions [2][20][70]. - In the intermediate link, the coal inventory in the Bohai Rim ports and terminal power plants is at a high level. As of April 22, the total inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim reached 3.1332 million tons, accumulating 664,000 tons in April, and was 792,300 tons higher than the same period last year [2][31][70]. - Overall, the bearish factors for thermal coal are piling up, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose. The relatively positive factor is that the inventory replenishment market in the industry chain for peak summer may drive the coal price to stop falling and stabilize, but the expected rebound space is limited, and the overall coal price trend is still downward [3][9][72] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Market Review 1.1 Price Review - Domestic thermal coal prices declined slightly in April 2025. The bearish factors are still accumulating, including increased domestic production, Sino - US trade frictions, the growth of clean energy, and high inventory levels restricting the rebound of coal prices during the replenishment period [8]. - Internationally, the global coal supply is also in surplus, and international coal prices are running weakly. In April, most terminals were waiting and watching, and the price of Indonesian coal in South China ports was relatively high compared to domestic coal [9]. 1.2 Futures - Spot Price Difference As of April 22, the price of the main thermal coal futures contract was 139.4 yuan/ton higher than the spot price of 5500 - kcal thermal coal produced in Shanxi at Qinhuangdao Port [14] Chapter 2: Analysis of Factors Affecting Prices 2.1 Supply Side 2.1.1 Origin Situation - In March 2025, the national raw coal output was 441 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. From January to March, the cumulative output was 1.203 billion tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.1%. The production increase in March was mainly concentrated in Shanxi and Xinjiang, with year - on - year increases of 19.1% and 20.6% respectively [17][18]. - In Shanxi, coal mines maintained a high operating level after the Two Sessions. In March, the output was 11.3831 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.6%. In Inner Mongolia, the new safety standard policy restricted the production capacity of some small and medium - sized coal mines. In Shaanxi and Xinjiang, coal production also increased [18][19]. 2.1.2 Import Volume - In March 2025, China imported 38.73 million tons of coal and lignite, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%. From January to March, the cumulative import was 114.85 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. In April, the coal import volume was expected to increase slightly compared to March but still decrease significantly year - on - year [24]. 2.2 Intermediate - Link Shipment 2.2.1 Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway In March 2025, the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway transported 35.27 million tons of coal, a year - on - year decrease of 2.08%. During the spring maintenance in April, the daily transportation limit was reduced to 1 million tons, but the port coal inventory still increased [27][28]. 2.2.2 Bohai Rim Ports - In March 2025, the total railway coal inflow of seven major ports in the Bohai Rim was 52.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.19%. The total outflow was 51.037 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.71%. In April, the inflow was still higher than the outflow, and the inventory increased [30][31]. 2.2.3 Shipping Situation - In April, the international dry bulk shipping market weakened seasonally. The BDI index decreased month - on - month and year - on - year, mainly dragged down by the Capesize ship (BCI) index. The domestic shipping market was relatively active, and the freight rate remained high - level volatile [37][38][41] 2.3 Demand Side 2.3.1 Total Social Electricity Consumption - In March 2025, the total social electricity consumption was 828.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. From January to March, the cumulative consumption was 2384.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The growth rate of electricity consumption slowed down due to the warm winter and non - power industries [45][47][48]. 2.3.2 Power Generation Structure - In March 2025, the national industrial power generation above designated size was 778 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. From January to March, the cumulative power generation was 2269.9 billion kWh, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. The proportion of thermal power decreased, while the proportion of clean energy increased [52][53]. 2.3.3 Non - Power Industry Coal Demand - From January to March, the real estate industry was still in adjustment, and infrastructure project reviews were strict. The non - power industry's support for coal demand was insufficient. The Sino - US trade friction had an indirect impact on non - power terminal exports, and non - power industry coal demand was expected to be weak [62][63] Chapter 3: Conclusion - The supply of thermal coal remains high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a high level. The bearish factors are piling up, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. The coal price may stop falling and stabilize during the peak - summer replenishment period, but the rebound space is limited, and the overall trend is downward [69][70][72]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The short - term and medium - term view of动力煤现货is "震荡" (sideways). The coal price decline in April slowed down, but the market atmosphere remained bearish. The supply - side pressure persisted due to increased domestic production despite a year - on - year decline in coal imports. Weak domestic demand and Sino - US trade frictions raised concerns about non - power terminal exports. The growth of wind and solar power and the seasonal strength of clean energy would keep coal demand low in May. High inventory levels at northern ports and sufficient coal available days at power plants would limit the rebound of coal prices during the inventory replenishment period. Although the inventory replenishment before peak summer demand might stop the price decline, the rebound space was expected to be limited, and the coal price would likely continue to trade in a weak sideways pattern [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content - **Price Calculation Method**: For futures with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it's the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price. A decline of more than 1% is considered a "下跌" (fall), 0 - 1% is "震荡偏弱" (weak sideways), a rise of 0 - 1% is "震荡偏强" (strong sideways), and a rise of more than 1% is "上涨" (rise). The "震荡偏强/偏弱" view is only for the intraday perspective [2][3] - **Time - Cycle Definition**: Short - term refers to within a week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The pattern of loose supply and demand for thermal coal will continue, and prices may fluctuate at the bottom. Some medium and low - calorie coal mines with high cost - effectiveness in the production areas have good sales and relatively firm prices. However, as the off - season for power plants approaches, the demand expectation weakens, and the restocking demand of non - power industries has not been significantly released, restricting the upward momentum of prices. In the off - season, prices are expected to operate weakly. Attention should be paid to the recovery of non - power industry demand and the progress of port inventory reduction [1][15] Summary by Relevant Contents Market Review - **Futures Market**: On the last trading day of last week, the thermal coal contract ZC2505 had no trading. On the 28th, it opened at 931.6000 yuan/ton, with the highest at 931.6000 yuan/ton, the lowest at 840.0000 yuan/ton, and closed at 840.0000 yuan/ton. The settlement price decreased by 51.4 yuan/ton, with 18.0000 lots traded and 0.0000 lots held [3] - **Domestic Production Area Quotes**: In Erdos, the pit - mouth tax - included prices are 300 yuan/ton for 4000 - calorie thermal coal in Dalate Banner, 315 yuan/ton for 4500 - calorie in Dalate Banner, 470 yuan/ton for 5500 - calorie in Ejin Horo Banner, and 556 yuan/ton for 6000 - calorie in Jungar Banner [3] - **Port Inventory**: As of April 26, 2025, the total coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 6.85 million tons, at Caofeidian Port was 5.65 million tons, at Jingtang Port was 7.797 million tons, and at Xingang of Guangzhou Port was 0.458 million tons [5] - **Southern Port Foreign - Trade Thermal Coal Quotes**: In Guangzhou Port, the tax - included ex - warehouse prices are 744 yuan/ton for 5500 - calorie Australian coal, 659 yuan/ton for 5000 - calorie Australian coal, 495 yuan/ton for 3800 - calorie Indonesian coal, 541 yuan/ton for 4200 - calorie Indonesian coal, and 653 yuan/ton for 4800 - calorie Indonesian coal. In Fangchenggang, the tax - included ex - warehouse prices are 500 yuan/ton for 3800 - calorie Indonesian coal and 636 yuan/ton for 4700 - calorie Indonesian coal [5] - **International Coal Prices and Freight Rates**: As of April 25, 2025, the China Coastal Coal Freight Index (CBCFI) was 749.41, the Panamax Freight Index (BPI) was 1,392.00, the Capesize Freight Index (BCI) was 1,889.00, the Supramax Freight Index (BSI) was 977.00, and the Handysize Freight Index (BHSI) was 472.00 [9][11] Viewpoints and Operation Suggestions - **Viewpoint**: The loose supply - demand pattern of thermal coal will continue, with prices likely to fluctuate at the bottom. In the off - season, prices are expected to operate weakly, and attention should be paid to non - power industry demand recovery and port inventory reduction [15] - **Operation Suggestion**: Mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [15]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The price of thermal coal is expected to remain weak in the near term due to the continuation of high supply and high inventory, along with the seasonal decline in thermal coal demand [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Core Logic**: Since April, the decline of domestic coal prices has slowed down, but the coal market atmosphere is not about to reverse. With the arrival of the off - season, bearish factors are accumulating. On the supply side, in March 2025, China's raw coal output reached 441 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. Although coal prices have been falling, domestic coal production remains at a high level. In terms of imports, in March, China imported 38.733 million tons of coal and lignite, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%, but the import volume is still at a relatively high level in the same period of the past five years. From April 1st to 10th, the total number of Mongolian coal customs clearance vehicles at the Ganqimao Port was 8168, compared with 7697 in the same period last year, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal imported by rail is considerable. On the demand side, with the end of the heating season in the north, the non - power industry cannot make up for the seasonal decline in thermal coal demand, and the supply - demand pattern of thermal coal is relatively loose, suppressing the market atmosphere. In addition, as May and June approach, the hydropower generation will improve, which may further dilute the demand for thermal coal. In terms of inventory, as of April 17th, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 32.059 million tons, with a significant weekly inventory increase of 2.1443 million tons, 9.86 million tons higher than the same period last year. The spring inspection of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway did not achieve effective inventory reduction at the northern ports [4]. - **Reference View**: The intraday and medium - term view of thermal coal spot is to oscillate [4].