Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of thermal coal will remain relatively loose, and prices will show a weakly fluctuating trend. The market pessimism at the mine - mouth has intensified, with reduced purchasing enthusiasm from coal plants and terminal traders, leading to poor sales and high inventory pressure at most coal mines. At ports, there is also high inventory pressure, and the terminal demand is weak with unchanged daily consumption, resulting in mainly small - order purchases and strong wait - and - see sentiment among large players. Therefore, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, and price drivers are limited. It is necessary to continuously monitor the recovery of non - power industry demand and the progress of port inventory reduction [2][16] - The recommended operation is to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [16] Summary by Related Catalogs Last Week's Market Review Futures Market - Last Friday, the thermal coal contract ZC2507 had no transactions. On the 28th, it opened at 931.6000 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 931.6000 yuan/ton, a minimum of 840.0000 yuan/ton, and closed at 840.0000 yuan/ton. The settlement price decreased by 51.4 yuan/ton. There were 18.0000 lots traded and 0.0000 lots held [5] Domestic Thermal Coal Origin Quotes - In Erdos Dalate Banner, the pit - mouth tax - included price of 4000 - kcal thermal coal is 263 yuan/ton, and that of 4500 - kcal thermal coal is 278 yuan/ton. In Erdos Ejin Horo Banner, the pit - mouth tax - included price of 5500 - kcal thermal coal is 431 yuan/ton. In Erdos Jungar Banner, the pit - mouth tax - included price of 6000 - kcal thermal coal is 532 yuan/ton [5] Port Inventory - As of June 7, 2025, the total coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port is 645.00 million tons; at Caofeidian Port, it is 565.00 million tons; at Jingtang Port, it is 826.80 million tons; and at Xingang of Guangzhou Port, it is 47.40 million tons [7] Southern Port Foreign - Trade Thermal Coal Quotes - At Guangzhou Port, the warehouse - pick - up tax - included price of 5500 - kcal Australian coal is 700 yuan/ton, that of 5000 - kcal Australian coal is 615 yuan/ton, that of 3800 - kcal Indonesian coal is 444 yuan/ton, that of 4200 - kcal Indonesian coal is 486 yuan/ton, and that of 4800 - kcal Indonesian coal is 596 yuan/ton. At Fangchenggang, the warehouse - pick - up tax - included price of 3800 - kcal Indonesian coal is 448 yuan/ton, and that of 4700 - kcal Indonesian coal is 581 yuan/ton [7] International Coal Prices - As of June 6, 2025, the China Coastal Coal Freight Index (CBCFI) is 693.19, the Panamax Freight Index (BPI) is 1,246.00, the Capesize Freight Index (BCI) is 2,842.00, the Supramax Freight Index (BSI) is 933.00, and the Handysize Freight Index (BHSI) is 472.00 [11][13] Freight Rate Fluctuations - As of June 6, 2025, the China Coastal Coal Freight Index (CBCFI) is 693.19, the Panamax Freight Index (BPI) is 1,246.00, the Capesize Freight Index (BCI) is 2,842.00, the Supramax Freight Index (BSI) is 933.00, and the Handysize Freight Index (BHSI) is 472.00 [11][13]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report predicts that thermal coal will continue to trade at low levels in the near term due to the high - supply and high - inventory situation, with a subdued atmosphere in the industry chain and strong wait - and - see sentiment [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Intraday and Medium - term View**: The reference view for thermal coal is "oscillating". In the medium - term, it is expected to remain at a low level [4]. - **Core Logic**: This week, the supply - demand pattern of thermal coal has changed little, with high production and stable imports. The positive factor is that China and the US reached an important consensus in Switzerland to significantly reduce tariff rates within 90 days, which will ease the drag on coal prices from non - power industries to some extent. However, the supply - demand contradiction is still prominent. Domestic coal mines in major production areas have a stable safety supervision environment, and production remains high. May is the off - season for thermal coal, and low residential electricity consumption drags down coal consumption in power plants. As of May 8, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces and 17 inland provinces is at a low level for the year. With strong supply and weak demand, market bearish sentiment spreads, downstream procurement enthusiasm is average, and thermal coal accumulates at ports [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Report's Core View - The power coal market is expected to remain at a low level in the near future due to the continuation of high supply and high inventory, along with a sluggish industrial chain atmosphere and strong wait - and - see sentiment [4] Summary by Related Content Price and Market Conditions - The intraday and mid - term view of power coal spot is "oscillation". The current supply - demand pattern of power coal has little change, with high production and stable imports [4] Driving Factors - Positive factor: The China - US trade friction has eased, which will delay the dragging effect of non - power industries on coal prices to some extent. The terminal products involved in the China - US trade mainly include electromechanical products, textiles and clothing, toys, plastic products, etc., which are related to non - power terminal industries such as non - ferrous metals, steel, and chemicals [4] - Negative factors: The coal safety supervision environment in domestic main production areas is stable, and power coal production remains at a high level. May is the off - season for thermal coal, and the daily coal consumption of power plants in coastal 8 provinces and inland 17 provinces is at a low level as of May 8. The market bearish sentiment spreads, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is general, leading to a large accumulation of power coal at ports [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of thermal coal spot are all "oscillation", and it is expected to remain in a weak operation due to the high - supply and high - inventory pattern [1][4] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety View Reference - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of thermal coal spot are "oscillation", and the core logic is that the North Port inventory has reached a new high, and thermal coal maintains a weak operation [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Core Logic**: This week, the supply - demand pattern of thermal coal has changed little, with high production and stable imports. The positive factor is that China and the US reached an important consensus in Switzerland to significantly reduce tariff rates within 90 days, which will ease the drag effect of non - power industries on coal prices to some extent. However, the supply - demand contradiction is still prominent. The coal production in domestic main producing areas remains high, and May is the off - season for thermal coal, with low power consumption by residents and power plants. As of May 8, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces and 17 inland provinces was at a relatively low level. With strong supply and weak demand, the market is bearish, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is general, leading to a large accumulation of thermal coal at ports. Therefore, the high - supply and high - inventory pattern continues, and thermal coal is expected to run at a low level in the near future [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The supply - demand pattern of thermal coal will remain loosely balanced, and the price will show a weak and volatile trend. In the pit - mouth area, market pessimism intensifies, the procurement enthusiasm of coal plants and platform traders declines, and most coal mines face inventory pressure. At ports, there is also high inventory pressure, terminal demand is weak, and market procurement is mainly small - scale orders. During the current off - season, it is expected to operate weakly. Attention should be paid to the recovery of non - power industry demand and the progress of port inventory reduction [2][18]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Last Week's Market Review - **Futures Market**: Last Friday, the thermal coal contract ZC2506 had no trading. On the 28th, it opened at 931.6000 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 931.6000 yuan/ton, a minimum of 840.0000 yuan/ton, and closed at 840.0000 yuan/ton. The settlement price decreased by 51.4 yuan/ton, with 18.0000 lots traded and 0.0000 lots held [5]. - **Domestic Thermal Coal Origin Quotations**: In Ordos, the pit - mouth tax - included prices are 285 yuan/ton for 4000 - kcal thermal coal in Dalate Banner, 300 yuan/ton for 4500 - kcal in Dalate Banner, 450 yuan/ton for 5500 - kcal in Ejin Horo Banner, and 542 yuan/ton for 6000 - kcal in Jungar Banner [5]. - **Port Inventory**: As of May 10, 2025, the total coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 7.5 million tons, at Caofeidian Port was 5.65 million tons, at Jingtang Port was 0 tons, and at Xingang of Guangzhou Port was 451,000 tons [7]. - **Southern Port Foreign - Trade Thermal Coal Quotations**: In Guangzhou Port, the tax - included warehouse - pickup prices are 734 yuan/ton for 5500 - kcal Australian coal, 649 yuan/ton for 5000 - kcal Australian coal, 480 yuan/ton for 3800 - kcal Indonesian coal, 525 yuan/ton for 4200 - kcal Indonesian coal, and 623 yuan/ton for 4800 - kcal Indonesian coal. In Fangchenggang, the tax - included warehouse - pickup prices are 485 yuan/ton for 3800 - kcal Indonesian coal and 607 yuan/ton for 4700 - kcal Indonesian coal [7]. - **International Coal Prices and Freight Rates**: As of May 9, 2025, the China Coastal Coal Freight Index CBCFI was 640.35, the Panama - type Freight Index (BPI) was 1353.00, the Cape - type Freight Index (BCI) was 1709.00, the Super Handysize Freight Index (BSI) was 969.00, and the Handysize Freight Index (BHSI) was 472.00 [11][13]. b) Viewpoints and Operation Suggestions - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern of thermal coal will remain loosely balanced, and the price will show a weak and volatile trend. In the pit - mouth area, market pessimism intensifies, the procurement enthusiasm of coal plants and platform traders declines, and most coal mines face inventory pressure. At ports, there is also high inventory pressure, terminal demand is weak, and market procurement is mainly small - scale orders. During the current off - season, it is expected to operate weakly. Attention should be paid to the recovery of non - power industry demand and the progress of port inventory reduction [2][18]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that the price of thermal coal is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term. Although there is a possibility of the price stabilizing due to the inventory replenishment during the peak summer season, the current supply-demand pattern remains loose with accumulating bearish factors [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Reference View**: The intraday and medium - term view for thermal coal spot is "oscillation" [4]. - **Core Logic**: In April, the decline of domestic coal prices slowed down, but the market sentiment remained bearish. The supply - side pressure persisted as domestic coal production increased despite a year - on - year decline in coal imports. The intensification of Sino - US trade frictions from late March to April raised concerns about non - power terminal exports of thermal coal. The rapid growth of new wind and photovoltaic units and the seasonal strengthening of four types of clean energy in May and June will keep the demand for thermal coal at a low level in May. The current high inventory at northern ports and sufficient coal availability days for power plants will limit the price rebound during the inventory replenishment period [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests that the domestic coal price decline slowed in April, but the market sentiment remained bearish with accumulating negative factors. The supply - side pressure of thermal coal has not eased due to increased domestic production despite a year - on - year decline in coal imports. The demand is expected to remain low in May as non - power terminal exports are worried about Sino - US trade frictions, and clean energy is seasonally strengthening. The high inventory at northern ports and sufficient coal availability days at power plants will limit the rebound of coal prices during the replenishment period. Although the peak - summer replenishment may stop the price decline, the thermal coal price is likely to remain weakly volatile in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content - **Price and Market Condition**: In April, the decline of domestic coal prices slowed, but the market atmosphere was still bearish, and negative factors were piling up [4]. - **Supply - side Factors**: Coal imports decreased year - on - year, but domestic production increased, so the supply - side pressure of thermal coal did not ease [4]. - **Demand - side Factors**: Domestic demand was mediocre, and Sino - US trade frictions from late March to April raised concerns about non - power terminal exports. The growth of new wind and photovoltaic units was rapid, and the total amount of four clean energies will seasonally strengthen from May to June. In May, the demand for thermal coal for power generation will remain low [4]. - **Inventory Factors**: The total inventory at northern ports is much higher than the same period in previous years, and the available coal days at power plants are generally sufficient, which will significantly limit the coal price rebound during the replenishment period [4]. - **Price Outlook**: The peak - summer replenishment in the industrial chain may stop the coal price decline, but the thermal coal price is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April 2025, domestic thermal coal prices declined slightly. As of April 22, the quotation for 5500K at Qinhuangdao Port was 662 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan month - on - month and 157 yuan lower than the same period last year [1][8][69]. - The supply side of thermal coal faces strong pressure. In March 2025, the national raw coal output was 440 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%, setting a new record for the highest monthly output. The total supply was 479 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%. After entering April, the coal output in the main producing areas still increased slightly, and the import volume was expected to be close to that in March [1][17][69]. - The demand side is weak. April and May are the traditional off - seasons for thermal coal. As of April 17, the daily consumption of thermal coal in 8 coastal provinces and 17 inland provinces decreased week - on - week. The non - power industry coal demand is also suppressed by Sino - US trade frictions [2][20][70]. - In the intermediate link, the coal inventory in the Bohai Rim ports and terminal power plants is at a high level. As of April 22, the total inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim reached 3.1332 million tons, accumulating 664,000 tons in April, and was 792,300 tons higher than the same period last year [2][31][70]. - Overall, the bearish factors for thermal coal are piling up, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose. The relatively positive factor is that the inventory replenishment market in the industry chain for peak summer may drive the coal price to stop falling and stabilize, but the expected rebound space is limited, and the overall coal price trend is still downward [3][9][72] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Market Review 1.1 Price Review - Domestic thermal coal prices declined slightly in April 2025. The bearish factors are still accumulating, including increased domestic production, Sino - US trade frictions, the growth of clean energy, and high inventory levels restricting the rebound of coal prices during the replenishment period [8]. - Internationally, the global coal supply is also in surplus, and international coal prices are running weakly. In April, most terminals were waiting and watching, and the price of Indonesian coal in South China ports was relatively high compared to domestic coal [9]. 1.2 Futures - Spot Price Difference As of April 22, the price of the main thermal coal futures contract was 139.4 yuan/ton higher than the spot price of 5500 - kcal thermal coal produced in Shanxi at Qinhuangdao Port [14] Chapter 2: Analysis of Factors Affecting Prices 2.1 Supply Side 2.1.1 Origin Situation - In March 2025, the national raw coal output was 441 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. From January to March, the cumulative output was 1.203 billion tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.1%. The production increase in March was mainly concentrated in Shanxi and Xinjiang, with year - on - year increases of 19.1% and 20.6% respectively [17][18]. - In Shanxi, coal mines maintained a high operating level after the Two Sessions. In March, the output was 11.3831 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.6%. In Inner Mongolia, the new safety standard policy restricted the production capacity of some small and medium - sized coal mines. In Shaanxi and Xinjiang, coal production also increased [18][19]. 2.1.2 Import Volume - In March 2025, China imported 38.73 million tons of coal and lignite, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%. From January to March, the cumulative import was 114.85 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. In April, the coal import volume was expected to increase slightly compared to March but still decrease significantly year - on - year [24]. 2.2 Intermediate - Link Shipment 2.2.1 Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway In March 2025, the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway transported 35.27 million tons of coal, a year - on - year decrease of 2.08%. During the spring maintenance in April, the daily transportation limit was reduced to 1 million tons, but the port coal inventory still increased [27][28]. 2.2.2 Bohai Rim Ports - In March 2025, the total railway coal inflow of seven major ports in the Bohai Rim was 52.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.19%. The total outflow was 51.037 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.71%. In April, the inflow was still higher than the outflow, and the inventory increased [30][31]. 2.2.3 Shipping Situation - In April, the international dry bulk shipping market weakened seasonally. The BDI index decreased month - on - month and year - on - year, mainly dragged down by the Capesize ship (BCI) index. The domestic shipping market was relatively active, and the freight rate remained high - level volatile [37][38][41] 2.3 Demand Side 2.3.1 Total Social Electricity Consumption - In March 2025, the total social electricity consumption was 828.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. From January to March, the cumulative consumption was 2384.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The growth rate of electricity consumption slowed down due to the warm winter and non - power industries [45][47][48]. 2.3.2 Power Generation Structure - In March 2025, the national industrial power generation above designated size was 778 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. From January to March, the cumulative power generation was 2269.9 billion kWh, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. The proportion of thermal power decreased, while the proportion of clean energy increased [52][53]. 2.3.3 Non - Power Industry Coal Demand - From January to March, the real estate industry was still in adjustment, and infrastructure project reviews were strict. The non - power industry's support for coal demand was insufficient. The Sino - US trade friction had an indirect impact on non - power terminal exports, and non - power industry coal demand was expected to be weak [62][63] Chapter 3: Conclusion - The supply of thermal coal remains high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a high level. The bearish factors are piling up, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. The coal price may stop falling and stabilize during the peak - summer replenishment period, but the rebound space is limited, and the overall trend is downward [69][70][72]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The short - term and medium - term view of动力煤现货is "震荡" (sideways). The coal price decline in April slowed down, but the market atmosphere remained bearish. The supply - side pressure persisted due to increased domestic production despite a year - on - year decline in coal imports. Weak domestic demand and Sino - US trade frictions raised concerns about non - power terminal exports. The growth of wind and solar power and the seasonal strength of clean energy would keep coal demand low in May. High inventory levels at northern ports and sufficient coal available days at power plants would limit the rebound of coal prices during the inventory replenishment period. Although the inventory replenishment before peak summer demand might stop the price decline, the rebound space was expected to be limited, and the coal price would likely continue to trade in a weak sideways pattern [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content - **Price Calculation Method**: For futures with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it's the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price. A decline of more than 1% is considered a "下跌" (fall), 0 - 1% is "震荡偏弱" (weak sideways), a rise of 0 - 1% is "震荡偏强" (strong sideways), and a rise of more than 1% is "上涨" (rise). The "震荡偏强/偏弱" view is only for the intraday perspective [2][3] - **Time - Cycle Definition**: Short - term refers to within a week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The pattern of loose supply and demand for thermal coal will continue, and prices may fluctuate at the bottom. Some medium and low - calorie coal mines with high cost - effectiveness in the production areas have good sales and relatively firm prices. However, as the off - season for power plants approaches, the demand expectation weakens, and the restocking demand of non - power industries has not been significantly released, restricting the upward momentum of prices. In the off - season, prices are expected to operate weakly. Attention should be paid to the recovery of non - power industry demand and the progress of port inventory reduction [1][15] Summary by Relevant Contents Market Review - **Futures Market**: On the last trading day of last week, the thermal coal contract ZC2505 had no trading. On the 28th, it opened at 931.6000 yuan/ton, with the highest at 931.6000 yuan/ton, the lowest at 840.0000 yuan/ton, and closed at 840.0000 yuan/ton. The settlement price decreased by 51.4 yuan/ton, with 18.0000 lots traded and 0.0000 lots held [3] - **Domestic Production Area Quotes**: In Erdos, the pit - mouth tax - included prices are 300 yuan/ton for 4000 - calorie thermal coal in Dalate Banner, 315 yuan/ton for 4500 - calorie in Dalate Banner, 470 yuan/ton for 5500 - calorie in Ejin Horo Banner, and 556 yuan/ton for 6000 - calorie in Jungar Banner [3] - **Port Inventory**: As of April 26, 2025, the total coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 6.85 million tons, at Caofeidian Port was 5.65 million tons, at Jingtang Port was 7.797 million tons, and at Xingang of Guangzhou Port was 0.458 million tons [5] - **Southern Port Foreign - Trade Thermal Coal Quotes**: In Guangzhou Port, the tax - included ex - warehouse prices are 744 yuan/ton for 5500 - calorie Australian coal, 659 yuan/ton for 5000 - calorie Australian coal, 495 yuan/ton for 3800 - calorie Indonesian coal, 541 yuan/ton for 4200 - calorie Indonesian coal, and 653 yuan/ton for 4800 - calorie Indonesian coal. In Fangchenggang, the tax - included ex - warehouse prices are 500 yuan/ton for 3800 - calorie Indonesian coal and 636 yuan/ton for 4700 - calorie Indonesian coal [5] - **International Coal Prices and Freight Rates**: As of April 25, 2025, the China Coastal Coal Freight Index (CBCFI) was 749.41, the Panamax Freight Index (BPI) was 1,392.00, the Capesize Freight Index (BCI) was 1,889.00, the Supramax Freight Index (BSI) was 977.00, and the Handysize Freight Index (BHSI) was 472.00 [9][11] Viewpoints and Operation Suggestions - **Viewpoint**: The loose supply - demand pattern of thermal coal will continue, with prices likely to fluctuate at the bottom. In the off - season, prices are expected to operate weakly, and attention should be paid to non - power industry demand recovery and port inventory reduction [15] - **Operation Suggestion**: Mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [15]