丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨公用事业 [Table_Title] 异常高温带动电量加速增长，水电延续强势火电 显著修复 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 10 月份全国统计口径发电机组发电量同比增长 7.9%，受 10 月中上旬南方异常高温影响，创 下年内单月最高增速。细分来看，用电需求高增叠加清洁能源挤压减弱，火电单月增速大幅转 正，10 月份火电发电量同比增长 7.3%，带动 1-10 月降幅收窄至 0.4%。水电方面，来水持续 改善叠加去年同期基数偏低，水电延续强势表现，10 月发电量同比提升 28.2%。非水清洁能源 方面，10 月风况延续偏弱叠加基数偏高，风电发电量同比减少 11.9%，降幅扩大 4.3pct，光伏 发电量同比增长 5.9%，增速环比回落 15.2pct；核电发电量同比增长 4.2%，保持稳健增长。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490520120001 SAC：S0490520110001 SAC：S0490523080003 SFC：BQT627 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% % ...

Core Insights - In the first three quarters, Xinjiang's industrial enterprises generated 4,191.98 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.0% [1] Power Generation Breakdown - Thermal power generation decreased by 0.2% year-on-year [1] - Hydropower generation increased by 1.0% year-on-year [1] - Wind power generation saw a growth of 5.4% year-on-year [1] - Solar power generation experienced a significant increase of 41.3% year-on-year [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the announcement is that Shanghai Electric Power Co., Ltd. reported a total power generation of 601.70 billion kWh for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.98% [2] - Coal power generation reached 393.13 billion kWh, showing a slight decline of 0.54% year-on-year, while gas power generation decreased by 14.93% to 61.78 billion kWh [2] - Renewable energy sources showed significant growth, with wind power generation increasing by 15.90% to 83.72 billion kWh and solar power generation rising by 26.43% to 63.07 billion kWh [2] Group 2 - The total grid electricity sold was 576.34 billion kWh, which is a 2.11% increase compared to the previous year, with an average grid electricity price of 0.58 yuan per kWh [2] - The company's market transaction settlement electricity volume for the first three quarters was 438.60 billion kWh, with 383.83 billion kWh from domestic market transactions and 54.77 billion kWh from inter-provincial transactions [2] - As of the end of September 2025, the company's installed capacity was 25.7792 million kW, with clean energy accounting for 61.80% of the total capacity [3]

Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in power generation for Q3 2025, achieving 5.855 billion kilowatt-hours, which represents a year-on-year growth of 86.46% [2] - Cumulatively, the company generated 15.154 billion kilowatt-hours in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 95.41% [2] - Wind power generation reached 6.070 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.41% [2] - Solar power generation surged to 8.915 billion kilowatt-hours, showing an impressive year-on-year increase of 289.30% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Electric (600021.SH) reported an increase in consolidated power generation for the first nine months of 2025, driven by growth in clean energy generation capacity and output [1] Group 1: Power Generation Performance - The company achieved a consolidated power generation of 60.17 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) from January to September 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.98% [1] - Coal power generation amounted to 39.31 billion kWh during the same period, showing a slight decline of 0.5% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Market Transaction Volume - The total market transaction settlement volume for the company reached 43.86 billion kWh from January to September 2025 [1] - Within this, the intra-provincial market transaction settlement volume (including medium to long-term and spot transactions) was 38.38 billion kWh, while inter-provincial transaction settlement volume was 5.48 billion kWh [1] Group 3: Growth Drivers - The primary reason for the increase in power generation was the growth in clean energy generation capacity and output [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Electric reported a total consolidated power generation of 60.17 billion kWh in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.98% [1] Summary by Category Power Generation Performance - Coal power generation reached 39.31 billion kWh, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.54% [1] - Gas power generation totaled 6.18 billion kWh, reflecting a significant year-on-year decline of 14.93% [1] - Wind power generation achieved 8.37 billion kWh, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.90% [1] - Solar power generation amounted to 6.31 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 26.43% [1] Electricity Supply and Pricing - The total on-grid electricity volume was 57.63 billion kWh, which is a year-on-year increase of 2.11% [1] - The average on-grid electricity price was 0.58 yuan per kWh [1] Market Transactions - The company engaged in market transaction settlements totaling 43.86 billion kWh [1] - Within this, the provincial market transaction settlement accounted for 38.38 billion kWh, while inter-provincial transaction settlements were 5.48 billion kWh [1] Clean Energy Growth - The installed capacity and generation of clean energy have both seen growth [1]

Core Insights - The company announced a total power generation of 5.2922 million MWh by September 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 5.35% [1] - Wind power generation saw a year-on-year decline of 12.47%, while solar power generation experienced a significant increase of 85.51% [1] - As of September 30, 2025, the cumulative power generation reached 56.5467 million MWh, reflecting a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.53% [1] Wind Power Performance - Cumulative wind power generation increased by 5.30% year-on-year [1] - The decline in wind power generation for the current period indicates potential challenges in this segment [1] Solar Power Performance - Cumulative solar power generation showed a remarkable year-on-year growth of 77.98% [1] - The significant increase in solar power generation highlights a strong upward trend in this sector [1]

Group 1 - Guangdong Construction won a major bid for the "Financial City East District Chebei Village Collective Property Reconstruction Project" with a bid price of 1.924 billion yuan [2] - Following the bid announcement, Guangdong Construction's stock hit the daily limit, closing at 4.16 yuan per share on September 23 [3] - The company's main business segments include engineering construction, clean energy generation, and equipment manufacturing, but it has faced declining profits in recent years [3] Group 2 - In 2023 and 2024, Guangdong Construction's projected revenues are 80.863 billion yuan and 68.315 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of 2.07% and 15.52% respectively [3] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease to 1.534 billion yuan and 1.168 billion yuan in 2023 and 2024, with declines of 10.27% and 23.84% respectively [3] - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 29.312 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.64%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 350 million yuan, down 23.44% [3] Group 3 - To enhance its clean energy business and alleviate operational pressure, Guangdong Construction plans to acquire five project companies with a total investment of 471 million yuan [4] - The acquisition involves 9 ground photovoltaic projects with a total direct current installed capacity of 249.78 MWp [4] - The company aims to effectively integrate resources and enhance its comprehensive strength in clean energy generation through this acquisition [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6][9]. Core Views - The company is a listed platform under Shudao Group, focusing on the clean energy generation business through asset restructuring [8][11]. - The acquisition of Shudao Clean Energy Group aims to enhance the company's focus on clean energy generation, transitioning away from traditional businesses [19][37]. - The company is expected to benefit from the resource advantages of Shudao Group, which is actively involved in the development of multiple hydropower projects and renewable energy resources [32][37]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company’s projected revenue for 2023 is 2,509 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 52.14%. However, a decline in revenue is expected in subsequent years, with 2024 projected at 2,483 million RMB, a decrease of 1.05% [7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be -342 million RMB in 2023, worsening to -409 million RMB in 2024, before improving to -127 million RMB in 2025 [7][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be -0.45 RMB in 2023, improving to -0.16 RMB by 2025 [7]. Business Strategy and Development - The company plans to divest from its traditional businesses in rail transit and bridge components, focusing instead on clean energy generation [19][33]. - Shudao Clean Energy is projected to have an operational and under-construction installed capacity of 10.5 million kW by the end of 2024, with significant contributions from hydropower projects [11][37]. - The company is also exploring new models that integrate transportation and energy, as well as renewable energy and mining [11][32]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is positioned as one of the five major listed platforms under Shudao Group, which is a significant player in the transportation and energy sectors in Sichuan Province [32][33]. - The average price-to-book (P/B) ratio of comparable companies is approximately 7.5, while the company's current P/B ratio is about 5.6, indicating potential for growth post-restructuring [9][11].

Group 1: Energy Supply and Demand - National electricity load has reached record highs, with the highest load recorded four times this year and five times for the State Grid [1][2] - Coal remains a critical component for stable electricity supply, with coal production in Shanxi maintaining high output levels [1][2] - Natural gas consumption has also increased, with the highest daily throughput reaching 645 million cubic meters, a 2.7% year-on-year increase [2] Group 2: Renewable Energy Contribution - Renewable energy sources such as hydropower, wind, and solar are increasingly contributing to electricity supply, with daily generation exceeding 1.1 billion kilowatt-hours during peak summer [3] - New energy projects from the State Energy Group have a total installed capacity of over 150 million kilowatts, supporting electricity supply for over 360,000 households [3] - New Tian Green Energy reported a 9.32% year-on-year increase in total power generation, with solar energy generation up by 149.53% [3][4] Group 3: Energy Storage Technologies - New energy storage technologies are becoming essential for electricity supply, with multiple provinces implementing large-scale storage solutions to manage peak demand [6] - The largest string-type energy storage station in China, located in Jiangsu, can release up to 800,000 kilowatt-hours of clean energy daily [6] - On August 1, 2023, energy storage stations and virtual power plants in Shanxi contributed a maximum power of 2.25 million kilowatts to balance supply and demand [7]