Core Viewpoint - China's soybean imports from January to June reached 49.37 million tons, indicating significant demand in the agricultural sector [1] Group 1: Import Data - The total soybean import volume for China in the first half of the year is reported at 49.37 million tons [1]

Core Insights - In May, China's soybean imports reached 13.918 million tons, a significant increase from 6.081 million tons in April [1] Group 1 - The increase in soybean imports indicates a strong demand in the Chinese market [1] - The data reflects a month-over-month growth of approximately 129% in soybean imports [1]

农产品日报 | 2025-05-09 现货供应宽松，豆粕窄幅震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约2919元/吨，较前日变动-1元/吨，幅度-0.03%；菜粕2509合约2563元/吨，较前日 变动-2元/吨，幅度-0.08%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3340元/吨，较前日变动+40元/吨，现货基差M09+421， 较前日变动+41；江苏地区豆粕现货3100元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M09+181，较前日变动+11；广东 地区豆粕现货价格3120元/吨，较前日变动跌-80元/吨，现货基差M09+201，较前日变动-79。福建地区菜粕现货价 格2500元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差RM09-63，较前日变动+12。 近期市场资讯，5月7日巴西全国谷物出口商协会预计，尽管巴西刚刚收获了创纪录的大豆，但巴西5月份的大豆出 口量可能降至1260万吨。Anec目前对5月份的出口预估显示，与今年4月份和去年5月份相比，出口量可能减少90 万吨。巴西对外贸易秘书处公布的出口数据显示，巴西4月出口大豆15,271,913.82吨，日均出口量为763,595.69吨 ...

海关总署：中国4月大豆进口608.1万吨，3月为350.3万吨。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is "cautiously bearish" [4][7] Core Viewpoints - In the soybean meal market, due to the large - scale arrival of new - season Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean supply will be relatively abundant in the coming months. The tight supply situation of soybean meal is expected to ease, and the oil mill operating rate and inventory will increase. The support of import costs for soybean meal prices is expected to weaken. Attention should be paid to policy changes, domestic soybean arrivals, and the planting and weather conditions of new - season US soybeans [3] - In the corn market, the domestic supply is tight as the grassroots grain sources are exhausted and traders are reluctant to sell. The demand side shows that deep - processing enterprises have sufficient inventory, and feed enterprises sign long - term contracts and purchase on - demand. With the approaching of the new wheat harvest in May, the substitution pressure on corn will increase. Attention should be paid to tariff policies and the release policy of substitute grains [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Soybean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 2920 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.17%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2565 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (+0.67%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3300 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 3090 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3200 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2490 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] Recent Market News - As of May 4, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil's 2024/25 season was 97.7%, higher than 94.3% in the same period last year. The harvest in some states has ended, and the progress in Rio Grande do Sul was 92%. In Argentina, the soybean harvest was only 25%, 9 percentage points slower than last year [2] Market Analysis - With the arrival of new - season Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean supply will be abundant, the tight situation of soybean meal will ease, and the oil mill operating rate and inventory will recover. The decline in soybean premiums will weaken the support of import costs for soybean meal prices. The current tariff policy has limited impact on soybean meal prices, but policy changes still need attention [3] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [4] 2. Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2507 contract was 2369 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (+0.17%); the corn starch 2507 contract was 2745 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (+0.15%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2650 yuan/ton [4] Recent Market News - As of May 4, the US corn planting progress was 40%, slightly lower than the market expectation of 41%, but higher than 35% in the same period last year and the five - year average of 39% [5] Market Analysis - Domestically, the supply is tight as grassroots grain sources are exhausted and traders are reluctant to sell. The demand side shows that deep - processing enterprises have sufficient inventory, and feed enterprises sign long - term contracts and purchase on - demand. With the approaching of the new wheat harvest in May, the substitution pressure on corn will increase. Attention should be paid to tariff policies and the release policy of substitute grains [6] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [7]