Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea market is expected to experience short - term fluctuations. After a brief improvement in spot trading on Friday, the trading weakened over the weekend. In the short term, the spot and futures prices are expected to decline, while in the medium term, before entering the off - season of agricultural demand, urea is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern [3][4]. - The supply side of urea faces large pressure. The expansion of urea production capacity continues in 2025, and the daily output remains at a high level. Although some enterprises have maintenance plans, the overall supply is still abundant [25][30]. - The demand side has support from agricultural demand. Seasonal agricultural demand is strengthening, and the construction of high - standard farmland has increased the demand for urea from corn. Industrial demand shows different trends, with the high - level operation of compound fertilizer production capacity utilization, a decline in melamine production compared with last year, and limited support from real - estate demand for panels [48][51][57]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Valuation: Price and Spread - **International Spot Prices**: The prices of small - particle urea in different regions have different trends. The low - end of China's bulk small - particle FOB price increased by $2/ton, and the high - end decreased by $4/ton. The prices in other regions such as the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea, the Middle East, and Brazil increased to varying degrees, while the CIF price in India remained the same as last week [2]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: After six consecutive days of weak trading, the domestic spot market improved significantly on Friday, but the trading weakened over the weekend. It is expected to experience a short - term decline and show an oscillating pattern in late April [3]. - **Futures**: Affected by the "reciprocal tariffs" between China and the United States, the equity market fluctuates widely. The futures price rebounded on Friday due to improved spot trading and short - term replenishment by traders, but is expected to decline in the short term and oscillate in the medium term [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The report provides historical data charts of urea basis (including ZhengYuan, JinKai, etc.), monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), and warehouse receipts, but no specific analysis is given [8][12]. 3.2 Domestic Supply - **Production Capacity**: The expansion of urea production capacity continues in 2025. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 4270,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 3,460,000 tons. Some enterprises' new production capacity is expected to be put into operation before the 05 contract [25]. - **Maintenance Plan**: Many urea production enterprises have maintenance plans, including Shandong Union Chemical, Shaanxi Weihe Coal Chemical, etc. Some maintenance has been postponed [29]. - **Output**: The production profit is around the break - even point, but the daily output of urea remains at a high level. The report provides historical data charts of daily output, capacity utilization, and the output of coal - based and gas - based urea [30][31]. - **Cost**: The raw material prices are relatively stable, and the cash - flow cost line of factories is around 1,364 yuan/ton. The report also provides the full - cost calculation of urea in different production processes [33]. - **Profit**: The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state. The report provides historical data charts of the cash - flow profit of fixed - bed devices and the production profit of different production processes [34][35]. - **Net Import (Export)**: The "Legal Inspection" policy remains strict, and urea exports remain extremely low. However, the current internal - external price difference is still large, and the theoretical export profit is high [40][42]. 3.3 Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: Seasonal agricultural demand is strengthening, and different regions and crops have different demand patterns at different times. The construction of high - standard farmland has increased the demand for urea from corn [48][51]. - **Industrial Demand**: The capacity utilization of compound fertilizer remains at a high level, the production of melamine has decreased compared with last year, and the real - estate demand for panels has limited support, but panel exports are resilient [57][59][60]. 3.4 Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: As of April 16, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 906,200 tons, an increase of 72,500 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 8.70%. Due to weakened downstream industrial demand and a short - term gap in agricultural demand, the inventory is expected to continue to increase next week [3][66]. - **Port Inventory**: As of April 17, 2025 (week 16), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 112,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 5.88%. The overall port inventory decreased slightly [66]. 3.5 International Urea - **International Urea Prices**: The report provides historical data charts of FOB prices of large - particle urea in China, the Baltic Sea, the Middle East, and CFR prices in Brazil [71][72][73][74]. - **India's Urea Market**: The report provides information on India's urea production, import, inventory, demand, and balance sheets from fiscal year 2018 to 2023, as well as details of India's tendering [76][83].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the "macro - narrative", there is room for imagination in the bond market, but it requires time to observe the transmission of external shocks and the response of domestic policies. The bond market is affected by external shocks, domestic economic conditions, and policy responses. The key lies in the impact of external shocks on domestic demand, balance sheets, and prices, as well as whether they stimulate more explicit demand - expanding policies [3][12]. - In the "micro - narrative", the bond market is recovering. The liquidity and yield logics are both being repaired. The intrinsic repair trend of large - bank liabilities and the central bank's possible re - loan to Central Huijin indicate liquidity improvement. The decline in the yield of coupon - bearing bonds and the reduction of the corporate credit bond stock scale are beneficial for the bond market. Time is on the side of the bond market [4][14]. - Overall, the bond market's yield may break through the previous low, but it still needs to wait for the implementation of monetary easing. It is recommended to prioritize income repair and accumulation, choose coupon - bearing varieties, and lay out long - end opportunities on the left side during volatile operations [5][18]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 1. Bond's Macro and Micro Narratives - **Current Situation of Bond Market Strategy Selection**: After the rapid decline in yields, the operation difficulty of the bond market has increased significantly. The space for coupon - bearing varieties has been compressed, and the operation of the duration strategy is difficult [3][11]. - **Macro - narrative**: There are opportunities in the bond market under the macro - narrative. The deflation story in trading is unlikely to return as long as the domestic real - estate cycle shows signs of stabilization. However, it is necessary to observe the impact of external shocks on domestic demand, balance - sheet repair, and price pressure, as well as the response of domestic policies [3][12]. - **Micro - narrative**: The bond market is recovering. The liquidity logic is being repaired as large - bank liabilities have an intrinsic repair trend, and the central bank's possible re - loan to Central Huijin is a signal of liquidity supplementation. The yield logic is also being repaired as the yield of coupon - bearing bonds has declined, and the credit - bond investment yield has basically leveled off since the beginning of the year. For self - operated accounts with stable liabilities, the only option is to increase duration [4][14]. - **Exchange - rate Issue**: The external shock has accelerated the choice of the RMB exchange - rate policy. In the short term, maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate is the primary choice of monetary policy. In the medium term, the central bank needs to decide whether to choose an orderly depreciation of the RMB to maintain trade advantages or stability/appreciation to enhance capital - account attractiveness. The weakening of the US dollar provides an option for RMB appreciation in the long - term, which will restructure the relationship between interest rates and exchange rates [4][16]. - **Investment Strategy**: The bond market's yield may break through the previous low, but it needs to wait for the implementation of monetary easing. It is recommended to focus on income repair and accumulation, select coupon - bearing varieties, and look for long - end opportunities on the left side during market fluctuations [5][18].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The overall outlook for the urea market is one of oscillatory pressure. International and domestic price disparities persist due to strict export inspection policies. In the short - term, the spot market is expected to be weak, influenced by macro - level factors such as the "reciprocal tariffs" between China and the United States and the pessimistic sentiment in the equity market. In the medium - term, the market will depend on the improvement of macro - sentiment and the release of fundamental demand. The futures market is also expected to follow the general trend of commodities, with the UR2505 contract likely to show a high - level oscillatory pattern [2][4]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Valuation: Price and Spread - **International Spot Prices**: Prices in various regions have generally increased, except for the Indian CIF price which remained stable. The price differences between the international and domestic markets continue due to strict export inspection policies [2]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: Affected by the "reciprocal tariffs" between China and the United States, the market is driven by macro - narratives. In the short - term, the spot market is expected to be weak, while the medium - term trend depends on macro - sentiment and demand [2]. - **Futures**: In the short - term, the futures market is expected to decline along with commodities. In the medium - term, the UR2505 contract is expected to oscillate at a high level, with supply from upstream and mid - stream restricting the upside and agricultural demand providing support [4]. 3.2 Domestic Supply - **Capacity**: The expansion of urea production capacity continues in 2025. In 2024, a total of 427 million tons of new capacity was added, and in 2025, an additional 346 million tons of new capacity is expected [25]. - **Production**: Production profit is around the break - even point, and daily urea production remains at a high level [30]. - **Cost**: Raw material prices are relatively stable, and the factory's cash - flow cost is around 1,486 yuan/ton [32]. - **Profit**: The profit corresponding to the urea cash - flow cost is close to the break - even line [33]. - **Net Import (Export)**: Due to the strict "Legal Inspection" policy, urea exports remain extremely low, although the theoretical export profit is high due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets [39][42]. 3.3 Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: Seasonal demand is increasing, and the construction of high - standard farmland has led to an increased demand for urea from corn [48][51]. - **Industrial Demand**: The production of compound fertilizers is operating at a high capacity utilization rate, while the production of melamine has decreased compared to last year. The demand for panels from the real estate sector is limited, but panel exports show resilience [57][59][60]. 3.4 Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: As of April 2, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 754,200 tons, a decrease of 113,600 tons from the previous week, a 13.09% week - on - week decrease. The inventory reduction rate has slowed down [3][66]. - **Port Inventory**: As of April 3, 2025 (week 14), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 120,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous week, a 7.69% week - on - week decrease [67]. 3.5 International Urea - **Prices**: International urea prices are firm, with prices in various regions showing an upward trend [2]. - **India**: Information on India's urea production, imports, demand, and balance sheets from fiscal years 2018 - 2025 is provided, showing trends in supply, demand, and inventory changes [84].