冠通期货-尿素2026年报 --供应压制价格，出口提供驱动 研究咨询部： 王 静 执业资格证号：F0235424/Z0000771 报告时间： 2025年12月29日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 核心观点 总体来说，2025年尿素年内供应压制高度，内需决定支撑，出口提供驱动。受到供应高位的影响，盘面上涨始终承压，而内需上半年整体呈现出 前置的状况，促使五月需求旺季阶段内需疲软出现大幅下跌，下半年受华北地区天气的影响，需求有所延迟，10月底跌至低点后开启一波反弹行情， 另外出口消息贯穿全年，多次出现脉冲式上涨行情，出口配额相继落地后又不及市场预期开启回落，呈现先扬后抑，年底翘尾的趋势。由于新增产能 的陆续投放，尿素供应端依旧承压，预计出口将继续适时以配额的形式继续发布，农需上半年多有前置，预计上半年价格偏强为主，下半年随着旺季 的结束或有回落，年内呈现先扬后抑格局，出口政策或影响阶段行情，但明年十五五开局之年 ...

· 2025 年 12 月 18 日 需求弹性增加，旺季偏强，淡季承压 三 年 ---2026 年尿素期货年度行情展望 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan@gtht.com 报告导读： 国 观点：2026 上半年尿素价格中枢或有上移，农需旺季过后，预计下半年尿素价格中枢逐步回落，震荡格局贯穿全年。全年市场或主要交易 尿素农需旺季驱动、出口驱动、承储驱动的预期及预期差，建议重点关注波段机会。此外，2026 年出口相关政策调整继 2025 年后仍是国内基 本面调节的关键因素。目前由于出口政策较为灵活，市场对于尿素远月价格的预期亦较为多变，交易者更多需要实时应对政策调整对市场预期的 改变。2026 年尿素价格运行区间预计在 1550-1950 元/吨。策略方面建议关注 5-9 逢低正套，9-1 及 1-5 的逢高反套。 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 逻辑：供应方面，尿素 2026 年或以高产量、高库存、低利润为起点。全年来看，尿素供应端或呈现产量增加、库存先抑后扬、利润先扬后 抑的格局。第一，产量端，2026 年尿素行业预计新增产能 651 万吨，全年产能增速约为 7.9%。理论产能 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea market is expected to experience short - term fluctuations. After a brief improvement in spot trading on Friday, the trading weakened over the weekend. In the short term, the spot and futures prices are expected to decline, while in the medium term, before entering the off - season of agricultural demand, urea is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern [3][4]. - The supply side of urea faces large pressure. The expansion of urea production capacity continues in 2025, and the daily output remains at a high level. Although some enterprises have maintenance plans, the overall supply is still abundant [25][30]. - The demand side has support from agricultural demand. Seasonal agricultural demand is strengthening, and the construction of high - standard farmland has increased the demand for urea from corn. Industrial demand shows different trends, with the high - level operation of compound fertilizer production capacity utilization, a decline in melamine production compared with last year, and limited support from real - estate demand for panels [48][51][57]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Valuation: Price and Spread - **International Spot Prices**: The prices of small - particle urea in different regions have different trends. The low - end of China's bulk small - particle FOB price increased by $2/ton, and the high - end decreased by $4/ton. The prices in other regions such as the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea, the Middle East, and Brazil increased to varying degrees, while the CIF price in India remained the same as last week [2]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: After six consecutive days of weak trading, the domestic spot market improved significantly on Friday, but the trading weakened over the weekend. It is expected to experience a short - term decline and show an oscillating pattern in late April [3]. - **Futures**: Affected by the "reciprocal tariffs" between China and the United States, the equity market fluctuates widely. The futures price rebounded on Friday due to improved spot trading and short - term replenishment by traders, but is expected to decline in the short term and oscillate in the medium term [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The report provides historical data charts of urea basis (including ZhengYuan, JinKai, etc.), monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), and warehouse receipts, but no specific analysis is given [8][12]. 3.2 Domestic Supply - **Production Capacity**: The expansion of urea production capacity continues in 2025. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 4270,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 3,460,000 tons. Some enterprises' new production capacity is expected to be put into operation before the 05 contract [25]. - **Maintenance Plan**: Many urea production enterprises have maintenance plans, including Shandong Union Chemical, Shaanxi Weihe Coal Chemical, etc. Some maintenance has been postponed [29]. - **Output**: The production profit is around the break - even point, but the daily output of urea remains at a high level. The report provides historical data charts of daily output, capacity utilization, and the output of coal - based and gas - based urea [30][31]. - **Cost**: The raw material prices are relatively stable, and the cash - flow cost line of factories is around 1,364 yuan/ton. The report also provides the full - cost calculation of urea in different production processes [33]. - **Profit**: The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state. The report provides historical data charts of the cash - flow profit of fixed - bed devices and the production profit of different production processes [34][35]. - **Net Import (Export)**: The "Legal Inspection" policy remains strict, and urea exports remain extremely low. However, the current internal - external price difference is still large, and the theoretical export profit is high [40][42]. 3.3 Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: Seasonal agricultural demand is strengthening, and different regions and crops have different demand patterns at different times. The construction of high - standard farmland has increased the demand for urea from corn [48][51]. - **Industrial Demand**: The capacity utilization of compound fertilizer remains at a high level, the production of melamine has decreased compared with last year, and the real - estate demand for panels has limited support, but panel exports are resilient [57][59][60]. 3.4 Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: As of April 16, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 906,200 tons, an increase of 72,500 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 8.70%. Due to weakened downstream industrial demand and a short - term gap in agricultural demand, the inventory is expected to continue to increase next week [3][66]. - **Port Inventory**: As of April 17, 2025 (week 16), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 112,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 5.88%. The overall port inventory decreased slightly [66]. 3.5 International Urea - **International Urea Prices**: The report provides historical data charts of FOB prices of large - particle urea in China, the Baltic Sea, the Middle East, and CFR prices in Brazil [71][72][73][74]. - **India's Urea Market**: The report provides information on India's urea production, import, inventory, demand, and balance sheets from fiscal year 2018 to 2023, as well as details of India's tendering [76][83].