Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current bottom of urea prices may gradually become clear. Urea's low valuation is a result of market consensus on the pressure of supply - demand surplus, but from a driving perspective, prices are supported at low levels. [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Changes - Urea futures prices: UR01 increased from 1652.00 yuan/ton to 1662.00 yuan/ton, a 0.61% increase; UR05 rose from 1727.00 yuan/ton to 1737.00 yuan/ton, a 0.58% increase; UR09 went up from 1748.00 yuan/ton to 1755.00 yuan/ton, a 0.40% increase. [1] - Domestic spot prices (small - particle): Shandong decreased from 1600.00 yuan/ton to 1590.00 yuan/ton, a - 0.63% change; Henan dropped from 1610.00 yuan/ton to 1600.00 yuan/ton, a - 0.62% change; Hebei fell from 1630.00 yuan/ton to 1610.00 yuan/ton, a - 1.23% change; Jiangsu declined from 1590.00 yuan/ton to 1580.00 yuan/ton, a - 0.63% change. [1] - Upstream costs: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030.00 yuan/ton and 930.00 yuan/ton respectively. [1] - Downstream prices: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong increased from 2980.00 yuan/ton to 3000.00 yuan/ton, a 0.67% increase; the price of melamine in Jiangsu rose from 5150.00 yuan/ton to 5200.00 yuan/ton, a 0.97% increase. [1] Key Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1650 yuan/ton, with a high of 1667 yuan/ton, a low of 1641 yuan/ton, a closing price of 1662 yuan/ton, and a settlement price of 1656 yuan/ton. The持仓 volume was 254752 hands. [1] Trading Strategy - Sell option profit - taking, and pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips in the medium - to - long term. [1]

| | | 尿素早评20251117: 价格底部或逐步明朗 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日度 | 変化值 变化值 | 单位 | 11月14日 | 11月13日 | | | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | UR01 | 元/吨 | 1652.00 | 1658.00 | -6.00 | -0.36% | | 尿素期货价格 | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1727.00 | 1731.00 | -4.00 | -0.23% | | | (收盘价) | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1748.00 | 1754.00 | -6.00 | -0.34% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 1600.00 | 1600.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 期现价格 | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1480.00 | 1480.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1610.00 | 1610.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | ...

| | | 尿素早评20251117: 价格底部或逐步明朗 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日度 | 変化值 变化值 | 单位 | 11月14日 | 11月13日 | | | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | UR01 | 元/吨 | 1652.00 | 1658.00 | -6.00 | -0.36% | | 尿素期货价格 | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1727.00 | 1731.00 | -4.00 | -0.23% | | | (收盘价) | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1748.00 | 1754.00 | -6.00 | -0.34% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 1600.00 | 1600.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 期现价格 | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1480.00 | 1480.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1610.00 | 1610.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The bottom of the current urea price may gradually become clear. Although urea has rebounded recently, the strength is limited, and the valuation is still at a relatively low level, reflecting the current pattern of strong urea supply and weak demand. From a driving perspective, the new round of export quotas will alleviate the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to a certain extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price. Low prices may stimulate storage - enterprises to enter the market. The low valuation of urea is the result of the market's consensus on the pressure of oversupply, but from the driving perspective, the urea price is supported at a low level, and the price bottom may gradually become clear [1] - The trading strategy is to take profit on sold options and pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - and long - term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: - UR01 in Shanxi closed at 1655 yuan/ton on November 12, up 15 yuan (0.91%) from November 11. UR05 closed at 1728 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan (0.64%); UR09 closed at 1748 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (0.58%) [1] - The futures price in Shandong on November 12 was 1600 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (-0.62%) from the previous day [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: - In Henan, it was 1610 yuan/ton on November 12, down 10 yuan (-0.62%); in Hebei, it remained unchanged at 1630 yuan/ton; in the Northeast, it was 1650 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan (2.48%); in Jiangsu, it was 1600 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (-0.62%) [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 128 yuan/ton on November 12, down 21 yuan from November 11 [1] - The spread of 01 - 05 was - 73 yuan/ton on November 12, up 4 yuan from November 11 [1] 3. Upstream and Downstream Prices - **Upstream**: The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Downstream**: - The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2980 yuan/ton and 2530 yuan/ton respectively [1] - The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5076 yuan/ton and 5150 yuan/ton respectively [1] 4. Important Information - The opening price of the main contract 2601 of urea futures was 1643 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1667 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1634 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1655 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1652 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 256120 lots [1]