【导读】 巴菲特发布第三季度的公司财报 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，一起来关注一下股神巴菲特旗下公司—— 伯克希尔哈撒韦 发布的最新财报。 | | Third Quarter | | | First Nine Months | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025 | 2024 | 2025 | | 2024 | | Net earnings attributable to Berkshire shareholders | $ 30,796 | $ 26,251 | $ 47,769 | | $ 69,301 | | Net earnings includes: | | | | | | | Investment gains (losses) | 17,311 | 16,161 | 17,243 | | 36,391 | | Other-than-temporary impairment of investment in | | | | | | | Kraft Heinz | | | (3,760) | | | | Operating earning ...

Core Insights - Warren Buffett, the legendary CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, is set to retire at the end of the year, marking a significant transition for the company as it faces challenges in maintaining investor confidence and corporate culture without his leadership [1][4]. Stock Performance - Since Buffett announced the transition of CEO responsibilities to Greg Abel in May, Berkshire Hathaway's Class B shares have dropped by 12%, contrasting sharply with the S&P 500's 21% increase during the same period, indicating market concerns about the post-Buffett era [4]. Market Sentiment - The rapid decline of the "Buffett premium," which allowed investors to pay a higher valuation for Berkshire shares due to Buffett's reputation, is a central concern. Analysts have downgraded the company's rating to "underperform," citing pressures such as declining pricing in property catastrophe reinsurance and the impact of lower interest rates on cash returns [4][5]. Cultural Shift - Buffett's retirement signifies the end of cherished traditions that have shaped Berkshire's unique corporate culture. Greg Abel will take over the writing of the annual shareholder letter and will lead the annual meeting, while Buffett will step back to a chairman role [5]. Transparency Concerns - Berkshire's unconventional operational methods, such as not holding quarterly earnings calls or providing earnings guidance, may face scrutiny as the company transitions to new leadership. Analysts worry that without Buffett's influence, investor tolerance for these practices may diminish, leading to potential changes in disclosure practices [5]. Long-term Value Perspective - Despite short-term stock price pressures and cultural challenges, the fundamental business of Berkshire Hathaway remains strong. Long-term investors express confidence in the company's underlying value, viewing recent stock declines as a technical correction rather than a fundamental issue [6]. Cash Flow Stability - The core value of Berkshire lies in its diverse portfolio of businesses that generate stable cash flows, which are expected to continue regardless of Buffett's presence. Investors believe that the operational capabilities of these businesses will sustain their value over time [6].

Group 1 - Berkshire Hathaway has received a rare "sell" rating from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, with the stock's target price lowered from $740,000 to $700,000, indicating a potential decline of about 5% from its recent closing price of $732,650 [1] - The report highlights unique challenges facing Berkshire, including concerns over Warren Buffett's succession and weak performance in key businesses, which are impacting investor sentiment [1][2] - The so-called "Buffett premium," which has historically provided Berkshire with additional valuation due to Buffett's leadership, appears to be diminishing [1] Group 2 - The insurance sector is expected to see a decline in profitability, particularly for Geico, which is reducing personal auto rates to regain market share, while the reinsurance group faces a tougher environment [2] - Berkshire's operating profit fell by 4% year-over-year to $11.16 billion in Q2 due to declining insurance underwriting income, with expectations that this trend will continue as reinsurance conditions remain weak [2] - The company's cash reserves reached $344.1 billion as of June, close to a historical high, indicating a strong liquidity position [3] Group 3 - The railroad division, Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF), may face growth limitations due to ongoing tariff pressures and weak trade flows, which historically correlate with its inflation-adjusted revenue [3] - In the energy sector, profitability may decline as the Biden administration's "Build Back Better" plan accelerates the phase-out of clean energy tax credits, reducing returns on future renewable energy projects [3] - Investors are closely watching the upcoming Q3 earnings report to assess how the company navigates economic headwinds and leadership transition concerns while maintaining its resilience [3]

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway has received a rare "sell" rating due to concerns over Warren Buffett's impending retirement and macroeconomic risks, with its stock price declining since reaching a historical high in May 2023 [1] Group 1: Leadership Transition Concerns - Analyst Meyer Shields from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods downgraded Berkshire Hathaway's Class A stock rating from "in line with the market" to "underperform," citing that "many factors are moving in the wrong direction" [1] - The uncertainty surrounding Buffett's successor is a major factor dampening investor sentiment, as investors may hesitate to rely on the company without Buffett's presence [1][2] - The report indicates that the so-called "Buffett premium," which reflects the additional valuation investors have assigned to Berkshire due to Buffett's leadership, appears to be diminishing [1] Group 2: Operational Pressures - Berkshire faces operational pressures across its diversified portfolio, particularly in insurance, railroads, and energy sectors [2] - In the insurance sector, profitability is expected to weaken, especially for Geico, which is lowering personal auto rates to regain market share [2] - The reinsurance segment is also under pressure, with a mild hurricane season affecting property catastrophe reinsurance pricing, potentially leading to lower premiums and profitability in upcoming quarters [2] Group 3: Financial Performance Indicators - As of June, Berkshire's cash reserves stood at $344.1 billion, nearing a historical high [3] - The railroad division, Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF), may face challenges due to inflation-adjusted revenues tracking U.S.-China trade activities, with ongoing tariff pressures and weak trade flows limiting growth [3] - In the energy sector, profitability may decline due to the gradual phase-out of clean energy tax credits under the Biden administration's "Build Back Better" plan, which could reduce returns on future renewable energy projects [3]

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway has received a rare "sell" rating due to concerns over Warren Buffett's impending retirement and macroeconomic risks, with its stock price declining since reaching a historical high in May 2023 [1] Group 1: Leadership Transition Concerns - The downgrade of Berkshire Hathaway's A shares from "in line with the market" to "underperform" reflects unique challenges related to the uncertainty surrounding Buffett's successor and the performance of key businesses [1][2] - Analyst Meyer Shields emphasized that the uncertainty regarding Buffett's successor is a major factor dampening investor sentiment, as investors may hesitate to rely on the company without Buffett's presence [1][2] Group 2: Operational Pressures - The report highlights operational pressures within Berkshire's diversified portfolio, particularly in insurance, railroads, and energy sectors [2] - In the insurance sector, profitability is expected to weaken, especially for Geico, which is lowering personal auto rates to regain market share, while the reinsurance group faces a challenging environment [2] - Berkshire's operating profit fell by 4% year-on-year to $11.16 billion in Q2 due to declining underwriting income, with expectations of continued pressure on profitability [2] Group 3: Investment Returns and Economic Environment - Berkshire's substantial cash and treasury bond portfolio may see reduced returns as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle, impacting the stability of income sources that have supported recent performance [2][3] - The railroad division, Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF), may experience limited growth due to ongoing tariff pressures and weak trade flows, which historically correlate with inflation-adjusted revenues [3] - In the energy sector, profitability may decline due to the gradual phase-out of clean energy tax credits under the Biden administration's "Build Back Better" plan, affecting future returns on renewable energy projects [3]

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway's stock price has experienced a significant drop due to investment losses in Kraft Heinz and the suspension of share buybacks [1][5]. Group 1: Investment Actions - Notable investor Duan Yongping has sold put options on Berkshire Hathaway, indicating that he believes the current price is attractive for buying [2][4]. - Duan Yongping has a history of using the strategy of selling put options to build positions and capitalize on market dips, as seen in his previous actions with companies like Nvidia and Apple [2][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Berkshire Hathaway reported second-quarter revenue of $92.515 billion, exceeding market expectations, but net profit fell to $12.37 billion, a 59% year-over-year decline [5]. - The investment income for the quarter was $4.97 billion, down over 73% compared to the previous year [5][6]. - The company confirmed a $3.8 billion impairment loss on its investment in Kraft Heinz, marking it as one of Buffett's few investment missteps [6]. Group 3: Market Reaction - Despite the solid operational performance of its subsidiaries, the market reacted negatively to Berkshire's financial results, leading to a 2.65% drop in its A-shares [6]. - Since the leadership transition in May, Berkshire's A-shares have declined over 13%, contrasting with an 11% rise in the S&P 500 during the same period [6][7]. Group 4: Investor Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the weak stock performance reflects investor concerns about the diminishing "Buffett premium" and uncertainty regarding the company's future without Warren Buffett [7]. - Duan Yongping emphasizes the value of Berkshire's corporate culture and its extensive business empire, which he believes will continue to thrive [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, has experienced its largest underperformance against the S&P 500 in decades, attributed to Buffett's impending retirement and investor sell-offs [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Since May 2, when Buffett announced the transfer of control to Greg Abel, Berkshire's Class A shares have dropped by 14%, contrasting sharply with the S&P 500's 11% increase [2]. - The gap in performance is one of the largest since 1990, with only the early pandemic period showing worse quarterly results for Berkshire [3]. - Berkshire's Class A shares reached a record price of $812,855 in May, but there is uncertainty about who is selling these high-vote shares [3]. Group 2: Business Operations - Despite the stock sell-off, Berkshire's subsidiaries, including BNSF Railway and several utility companies, reported profit growth in Q2, with overall operating profit increasing by 8% year-over-year when excluding currency fluctuations [3]. - Berkshire's market valuation has risen to a price-to-book ratio of nearly 1.8, the highest since October 2008 [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Buffett has ceased stock buybacks since May 2024, only repurchasing shares when he believes the price is below intrinsic value [5]. - Recent comments from shareholders suggest that the stock may be overvalued, with expectations that a market correction could prompt Buffett to resume buybacks [6]. - Berkshire has been a net seller of stocks for 11 consecutive quarters, with cash levels reaching 30% of total assets by the end of June [6].

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway's Class A shares have experienced a historic underperformance relative to the market, indicating that the "Buffett premium" may not be immediately passed on to successors [1][6]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Since the leadership transition in early May, Berkshire Hathaway's Class A shares have declined by 14%, marking one of the worst performances relative to the S&P 500 in decades, while the S&P 500 has risen by 11% during the same period [3][5]. - This underperformance is one of the worst three-month periods for Berkshire relative to the S&P 500 since 1990 [5]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Fundamentals - Despite the poor stock performance, Berkshire's operational performance remains strong, with profit growth in its BNSF railroad, utilities, and manufacturing, service, and retail sectors in Q2 [8]. - Excluding currency fluctuations, Berkshire's operating profit grew by 8% year-over-year in Q2, but this positive data has not prevented investor sell-offs [8]. - Earlier this year, investors viewed Berkshire as a safe haven amid market turbulence, but as recession fears eased, funds have shifted back to rapidly growing tech stocks [8]. Group 3: Valuation and Buyback Opportunities - Berkshire's stock buyback plan was halted by Buffett in May 2024, with buybacks only occurring if the repurchase price is believed to be below the company's intrinsic value [9]. - The recent stock price correction may create an opportunity for Buffett to resume buying, as the stock was previously considered overvalued [9].

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway's A shares have declined by 14% since the leadership transition in May, marking one of the worst performances relative to the S&P 500 in decades, prompting investors to reassess the company's value post-Buffett [1][4] Group 1: Performance Comparison - Since Buffett announced the transfer of control to Greg Abel, Berkshire's A shares have dropped 14%, while the S&P 500 has risen by 11%, highlighting a stark contrast [1] - This period represents one of the worst relative performances for Berkshire against the S&P 500 since 1990 [3] Group 2: Historical Context - The current underperformance is historically significant, with only the early pandemic period showing worse results, as investors sold off stocks heavily impacting Berkshire's core holdings in insurance and financial services [4] - Buffett's investment strategy has historically yielded a remarkable 55,000% return for Berkshire since 1965, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 by 140 times [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Fundamentals - Despite the poor stock performance, Berkshire's operational performance remains strong, with profit growth reported across its BNSF railroad, utilities, and manufacturing sectors in Q2 [5] - Excluding currency fluctuations, Berkshire's operating profit grew by 8% year-over-year in Q2, but this positive data has not prevented investor sell-offs [6] Group 4: Valuation and Buyback Strategy - Berkshire's stock buyback plan was halted by Buffett in May 2024, with future repurchases contingent on the stock price being below its intrinsic value [7] - Some investors believe the recent stock price correction may create an opportunity for Buffett to resume buying shares, as the stock was previously considered overvalued [7]

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway's A shares have declined by 14% since the leadership transition in May, marking one of the worst performances relative to the S&P 500 in decades, as investors reassess the company's value post-Buffett [1][3]. Group 1: Performance Analysis - The recent decline is the worst relative performance against the S&P 500 for Berkshire since 1990, highlighting the potential challenges in leadership succession [3][4]. - Historically, Berkshire's stock has created a "Buffett premium," with a cumulative return of 55,000 times since 1965, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 by 140 times [4]. - The stock's valuation reached a rare high, with a price-to-book ratio of nearly 1.8, the highest since October 2008, before the recent downturn [5]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - Despite solid operational performance, with an 8% increase in operating profit year-over-year in Q2, market sentiment has led to significant sell-offs [5]. - Investors previously viewed Berkshire as a safe haven during market turbulence, but as recession fears eased, funds have shifted towards high-growth tech stocks [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The recent stock price correction may create a buying opportunity, as Berkshire's CEO Buffett has indicated he will only repurchase shares if the price is below the company's intrinsic value [6]. - There is speculation that Buffett may soon resume stock buybacks following the recent valuation adjustments [6].