Core Viewpoint - Trump is increasingly dissatisfied with the Federal Reserve's inaction on interest rate cuts, prompting him to consider announcing his next nominee for the Fed Chair earlier than expected [1] Group 1: Potential Nominees - Trump is contemplating potential candidates for the next Fed Chair, including former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett [1] - Other recommended candidates include Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, former World Bank President David Malpass, and current Fed Governor Christopher Waller [1] Group 2: Timing and Implications - The current Fed Chair Jerome Powell has 11 months remaining in his term, but Trump may announce a successor as early as September or October [1] - Announcing a nominee this summer or fall would be significantly earlier than the usual three to four months before the transition [1] - This early announcement could allow the nominee to influence market expectations regarding future interest rate paths [1]

Core Viewpoint - Trump is considering three to four candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair, expressing dissatisfaction with current Chair Jerome Powell [1] Group 1: Candidates for Federal Reserve Chair - Trump mentioned he knows who he would choose among three to four potential candidates to replace Powell [1] - Main competitors for the position include former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin [1] Group 2: Trump's Criticism of Powell - Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell for not lowering interest rates and has suggested firing him or appointing a successor [1] - Analysts believe Trump's actions may be an attempt to influence monetary policy before Powell's term ends in May 2026 [1]

美国总统特朗普表示，他将很快提名美联储主席的继任者，而鲍威尔的任期还有将近一年才结束。投资 者表示，这可能给市场带来一个危险的命题。 自今年1月开始第二个任期以来，特朗普毫不掩饰他对鲍威尔及美联储不降息的不满。尽管特朗普已收 回今年早些时候可能解雇鲍威尔的言论，且美国最高法院最近的一项裁决也缓解了人们对他这样做的担 忧，但他本月早些时候表示，关于下一任美联储主席的决定将很快做出。 投资者表示，在鲍威尔任期于2026年5月结束前提早这么久就宣布继任者，可能会在市场中引发严重不 安。 瑞银全球财富管理的美洲资产配置主管Jason Draho表示，如果在未来几个月内宣布一个非传统的美联储 人选，将给市场带来一个潜在的风险。他说，"如果人们对这一切可能如何演变过于自满，那么这个风 险是存在的。" 在美联储理事库格勒的任期于明年1月结束前，美联储没有空缺席位可供特朗普临时填补。 话虽如此，美联储主席只是货币政策制定委员会的18名成员之一，其部分职责是在委员会内部建立共 识。 Ritholtz Wealth Management的首席市场策略师Callie Cox表示，市场希望看到的美联储主席是能够"高度 专注"于经济平 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗普表示，他将在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔任期结束前近一年时提名 继任者。投资者认为这可能给市场带来风险。 特朗普毫不掩饰对鲍威尔和美联储自他1月开始第二任期以来未降息的不满。尽管特朗普已收回今年早 些时候可能解雇鲍威尔的言论，且近期美国最高法院的裁决缓解了相关担忧，但他在本月早些时候表 示，将很快决定下任美联储主席人选。 投资者称，在鲍威尔2026年5月任期结束前很久就宣布这一消息，可能会引发市场严重不安。一个与现 任央行领导人在货币政策上观点可能冲突的"影子"美联储主席可能会造成混乱。 鉴于投资者普遍认为美联储的独立性对其正常运作至关重要，任何被视为受特朗普控制的选择都会令华 尔街感到恐慌。 联博首席美国经济学家埃里克·维诺格拉德表示，"无论任命谁，关键是要看他们是否被视为政治任 命，""我指的是那些观点随总统心血来潮而改变的人。" 制定美国货币政策并负责维持充分就业和物价稳定的美联储主席是华尔街最关注的政府官员之一。不 过，美联储主席只是央行货币政策制定委员会18名成员之一，其部分职责是在委员会内建立共识。 瑞银全球财富管理美洲资产配置主管杰森·德拉霍表示，如果在未来几个月内 ...

Group 1 - U.S. interest rate traders are betting that the Federal Reserve will shift to a more dovish monetary policy after the current Chairman Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026, with expectations of rate cuts as early as June 2026 [1] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at its upcoming meeting and may lower its expectations for rate cuts this year due to upward pressure on prices from tariffs [1] - Traders are focusing on futures linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), which has seen a surge in trading volume following Trump's announcement of a forthcoming nomination for the next Fed Chair [1] Group 2 - The strategy for betting on interest rate futures includes shorting SOFR futures expiring in March 2026 while going long on those expiring in June 2026, creating a typical "three-month spread trade" [2] - On Monday, the trading volume for this strategy reached 108,649 contracts, with open interest for March and June contracts hitting the highest levels of the current policy cycle, indicating strong demand for this strategy [2] - The relative price of the March contract has weakened significantly compared to the December 2025 and June 2026 contracts, leading to the highest price spread since January [2] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that Trump may choose a successor who supports loose monetary policy, which could complicate the nomination process in Congress [5] - Concerns have been raised about the potential for a "shadow" Fed Chair if Trump nominates a successor before Powell's term ends, leading to mixed signals that could undermine market confidence in U.S. policy-making [5] - It is important to note that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is collectively decided by the Federal Open Market Committee, and the Chair does not unilaterally set policy rates [5]

美联储主席鲍威尔的第二个任期即将于明年6月画上句号。这位曾以"渐进加息"和"抗击通胀"为标签的 掌舵者，如今正面临来自白宫的前后夹击。 美国总统特朗普与副总统万斯近期频繁敦促美联储降息，与此同时，白宫已经在物色下一任美联储主席 的人选。特朗普近日表示，将很快任命继任者。 现任财长贝森特一度被传为最热门候选人，但白宫迅速否认这一传闻。 随着美国债务规模突破36万亿美元，联邦政府每年需支付1.2万亿美元利息，降息成为缓解财政压力 的"捷径"。 特朗普政府近期频繁敦促美联储降息： 6月6日，美国非农就业数据公布后，特朗普说，"美联储的'太迟先生'是场灾难！欧洲已经降息10次， 我们一次都没有。若通胀卷土重来，加息应对就好。" 6月11日，美国消费者价格指数（CPI）报告公布后，特朗普表示， CPI最新数据表现理想，呼吁美联储 将利率下调一个百分点。如此一来，美国在即将到期的债务利息上将节省大量支出，这非常重要。万斯 当天也以"通胀放缓至0.1%"为由加入施压阵营，将美联储推向政治风暴中心。 这场权力更迭的背后，不仅是候选人个人资历的较量，更是美国货币政策未来方向的抉择：是坚守独立 性，还是向政治压力妥协？ 施压鲍威 ...

隔夜，现货黄金上升近1%，并突破3350美元，日内最高触及3360.44美元，最低触及3315.19美元，最终收报于3355.02美元。今日欧市盘中，黄金小幅上 涨，目前在3361美元附近徘徊。 降息100个基点！ 隔夜，美国三大股指小幅收跌，截至收盘，道指微跌1个点，报42865.77点；标普500指数跌0.27%，报6022.24点；纳指跌0.5%，报19615.88点。 消息面上，美联储的降息前景突生变数。 隔夜，美国总统特朗普表示，美国CPI最新数据表现理想，他呼吁美联储将利率下调一个百分点（100基点）。美国副总统万斯表示，美联储拒绝降息是 货币政策的失职行为。 在此之前，美国劳工统计局公布的5月消费者价格指数(CPI)报告显示，美国5月未季调CPI年率录得2.4%，低于市场预期的2.5%，前值为2.3%；5月季调后 CPI月率录得0.1%，低于预期的0.2%，前值为0.2%。 美国CPI数据公布后，交易员加大对美联储降息的押注，基本预计今年将降息两次，利率互换显示交易员预计美联储在9月份前降息的可能性为75%。 另据CME"美联储观察"，美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为100%（数据公布前为99.8 ...

特朗普 图片来源：新华社记者 胡友松 摄 当地时间6月11日，美国总统特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"上发文表示，美国消费者价格指数（CPI）最新数据表现理想，他呼吁美联储将利率下调1个百 分点（即100个基点）。特朗普说，如此一来，美国在即将到期的债务利息上将节省大量支出。他强调说，"这非常重要"。 6日他在社媒发文说，美联储的"太迟先生"是个灾难。欧洲已经降息10次了，而美国一次也没有。他称，美联储主席鲍威尔应将利率下调整整一个百分点。 而就在当地时间6月10日，德意志银行发布的一份研究报告指出，美国总统特朗普正考虑在美联储现任主席任期尚未结束前，提前透露继任者。这就是财政 部长斯科特・贝森特（Scott Bessent）此前提出的"影子美联储主席"（shadow Fed chair）策略。 据德银分析，"影子主席"有三名热门的潜在人选，分别是美联储前理事凯文·沃什、美国国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特以及美联储现任理事克里斯·沃勒。 除此之外，这一策略的提出者贝森特也被传将成为接替鲍威尔的竞争者之一，不过白宫方面很快进行了否认。 值得注意的是，任命"影子主席"这一举措正值特朗普力推 "Big, Beauti ...

Core Viewpoint - The selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair is becoming a focal point for the market, with increasing speculation around potential candidates and their implications for monetary policy [1][2][4]. Candidate Analysis - Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, is being pushed by advisors within the Trump administration as a leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, although the White House has denied these claims [2][4]. - Current Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026, and there is growing interest in who will succeed him [5]. - Other potential candidates include Kevin Warsh, former Federal Reserve Governor; Kevin Hassett, current Director of the National Economic Council; and Chris Waller, current Federal Reserve Governor [9][10][11]. Market Impact - The concept of a "shadow Federal Reserve Chair" is emerging, indicating that the market may start reacting to the potential candidates as they become more defined [7][8]. - Deutsche Bank's report suggests that Trump's administration may favor a "dovish" candidate who aligns with his calls for interest rate cuts [13]. Candidate Preferences - Kevin Waller is noted for his dovish stance, advocating for ignoring tariff-induced inflation to prioritize interest rate cuts, which aligns with Trump's preferences [13][15]. - The report indicates that while all candidates may promise to lower rates, the real challenge lies in implementing such policies effectively [14]. Challenges Ahead - The next Federal Reserve Chair will need to navigate the complexities of maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve while addressing political pressures [12][15]. - Candidates from within the government may face heightened scrutiny regarding their ability to uphold the Fed's independence and credibility in achieving inflation targets [15].

Group 1 - The article discusses President Trump's potential early maneuvering regarding the next Federal Reserve Chair, indicating that an announcement may come soon despite Jerome Powell's term lasting until May 2026 [1] - Trump may leverage the upcoming vacancy of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler in January 2026 to position a successor, reflecting the administration's emphasis on monetary policy influence [1] - The market's focus is expected to shift towards the selection of the next Fed Chair as the "Big Beautiful Plan" is anticipated to pass in mid-July and trade policies become clearer [1] Group 2 - Deutsche Bank identifies three prominent candidates for the Fed Chair position: Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, and Chris Waller, each with distinct policy inclinations [2] - Kevin Warsh, a former Fed Governor, is viewed as a frontrunner but has a history of hawkish views, criticizing quantitative easing and recent rate cuts [2] - Chris Waller, currently a Fed Governor, has shown a more dovish stance, suggesting that the Fed could overlook inflation driven by tariffs and lower interest rates [2] Group 3 - Deutsche Bank believes that Trump's call for a significant rate cut indicates a preference for a dovish candidate, with Waller being seen as having a higher chance of success [3] - The report emphasizes that merely having a dovish inclination is insufficient; the new Chair must persuade colleagues to adopt a different policy path, which could be challenging for external candidates with past criticisms of the Fed [3] - Waller's current position as a Fed Governor may provide him with an advantage in navigating the internal dynamics of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [3] Group 4 - The article warns that regardless of the final candidate, the market may test the independence of the next Fed Chair and the credibility of their commitment to achieving inflation targets [4] - The challenge of maintaining independence could be more pronounced if the candidate comes from within the government, especially given Trump's threats to dismiss Powell and calls for substantial rate cuts amid strong economic resilience and rising inflation pressures [4] - The new Fed Chair will face the critical decision of whether to uphold the Fed's hard-won anti-inflation credibility in the current economic context [4]