特朗普政府考虑从11名候选人中寻找下任美联储主席，而现任主席鲍威尔在央行年会上发表的"鸽 派"言论正影响华尔街的情绪。 美国财政部长贝森特将于9月5日展开一连串面试，寻找下一任美联储主席的人选，面试过程将持续 到下周。 贝森特此前表示，寻找鲍威尔继任者的进程将在劳动节（每年9月的第一个星期一），即今年9月1 日后不久开始。 11名候选人 《华尔街日报》引述知情人士的说法报道称，贝森特可能面对面或通过视频与候选人交谈。 杰富瑞首席市场策略师戴维·泽沃斯 8月，CNBC报道称，特朗普政府正考虑从11名候选人中寻找合适人选接替鲍威尔，其中包括： 美联储监管副主席米歇尔·鲍曼 美联储理事克里斯·沃勒 美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊 布什政府经济顾问马克·萨默林 达拉斯联储主席洛里·洛根 圣路易斯联储前主席詹姆斯·布拉德 美国国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特 美联储前理事凯文·沃什 美联储前理事拉里·林赛 贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官里克·里德 所有候选人先由贝森特面试，筛选后将最终名单提交给总统决定。 名单的规模和所描述的流程表明，决定不会很快作出，而且可能需要相当长的时间。但官员们不愿 透露具体的时间表。 这个过程越长， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that President Trump is considering a diverse list of candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair, which may include individuals from top Wall Street asset management firms, indicating a shift in the selection process [1][2] - The list of candidates currently includes 11 individuals, such as David Zervos from Jefferies, Rick Rieder from BlackRock, and Larry Lindsey, among others, suggesting a broadening of options for the upcoming appointment [1] - The current Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026, and Trump has stated he will not renew Powell's term, indicating a significant change in leadership is forthcoming [2] Group 2 - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will interview each candidate to refine the list before presenting it to President Trump, highlighting a structured approach to the selection process [2] - The expansion of the candidate list suggests that Trump's decision on the nomination is not urgent, allowing for a more deliberate selection process [2] - The concept of a "shadow Fed Chair," proposed by Bessent, aims to allow the next chair to influence policy discussions during Powell's remaining term, potentially diminishing Powell's authority [3]

Group 1 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that current interest rates are "restrictively high" and suggested a reduction of 150-175 basis points [1] - Bessent predicts that the Federal Reserve may initiate a series of rate cuts in the coming months, with a 50 basis point cut likely in September [1] - The current target range for the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate is 4.25%-4.5% [1] Group 2 - Following lower-than-expected inflation data in July, market expectations for a September rate cut surged to 96% [2] - Bessent advocates for an aggressive 50 basis point cut, while analysts warn that rising core inflation at 3.1% and upcoming employment data may delay decisions [2] - Political pressure from the White House, particularly from President Trump, is influencing the Fed's decision-making process [2] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley's investment strategy head Elyse Ausenbaugh suggests that the Fed is more likely to act in the fourth quarter unless there is a significant deterioration in future data [3] - The upcoming employment data is expected to play a crucial role in determining the Fed's policy direction [3] - Bessent emphasized the need for reliable data in employment reports and supports the continuation of these reports [3]

"特朗普政府方面这种极不专业的表现，体现出其对于美联储的水平以及工作原理并不是很了解，也不够尊重。" 特朗普政府及其盟友对美联储主席鲍威尔持续发难。 当地时间21日，美国财长贝森特表示，作为一个机构，美联储需要接受全面审视，并评估其是否运作成功。言语之中他对美联储在通胀方面的判断多有批 评。 同日，美国佛罗里达州共和党籍联邦众议员安娜·保利娜·卢纳已向美国司法部指认鲍威尔作伪证，要求对他提出刑事指控。 据新华社转引外媒报道，卢纳致信司法部，指认鲍威尔在两个场合作伪证。上述指认正值美国总统特朗普及其盟友持续施压鲍威尔下台。 此前，特朗普还在6月末主动提及美联储下任主席候选人议题，当被问及他是否正在面试接替鲍威尔的候选人时，特朗普表示："我知道在三四个人之内我 会选谁。" 但他表示，目前美国几乎没有出现任何通胀影响，而美联储在特朗普政府对进口商品征收高额关税问题上"制造恐慌"。 他还称，有那么多博士都在那里（美联储），"我不知道他们都在干什么。" 对于这一试图通过"影子美联储主席"影响货币政策的做法，曾经在美联储担任高级经济学家的上海交通大学上海高级金融学院教授胡捷在接受第一财经专 访时表示，特朗普政府方面这种极 ...

Core Viewpoint - The risk of stagflation in the U.S. economy is re-emerging, with inflation expected to rise and economic growth to slow down in the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation Drivers - Tariff impacts are not fully realized yet, as U.S. companies imported heavily in Q1 to avoid high tariffs, leading to high inventories. Once these inventories are depleted, companies will have to resume imports, likely passing tariff costs onto consumers [2]. - Immigration policies have tightened, leading to labor shortages in key sectors such as construction, agriculture, and elder care, which may push up wage levels and contribute to inflationary pressures [2]. - Moderate fiscal policy expansion is anticipated to contribute 0.4 to 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth over the next 12 months, increasing inflation risks [2]. Group 2: Economic Growth Projections - U.S. GDP growth is projected to be below trend levels, with estimates of 1.3% for this year and 1.2% for next year [3]. Group 3: Long-term Fiscal Concerns - The rapid passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which makes the temporary personal income tax cuts from 2017 permanent, is expected to increase the budget deficit by over $3 trillion over the next decade. This is unusual given the already low unemployment rate [5]. - The U.S. budget deficit is projected to remain above 6% of GDP in the coming years, with government debt reaching about 100% of GDP, and interest payments consuming 3% to 4% of GDP, which is unsustainable [5]. - Changes in the buyer structure of U.S. debt, with reduced purchases from foreign central banks and increased sensitivity from private investors, may lead to greater volatility in bond yields [5]. Group 4: Global Economic Outlook - Other regions are expected to experience slower growth but easing inflation, providing more room for central banks to cut rates. Asian exports are anticipated to decline further in the second half of the year, while Germany's fiscal and infrastructure spending may take time to support economic growth [6]. Group 5: Currency and Monetary Policy - The Nomura team holds a "soft dollar" stance due to stagflation pressures in the U.S., despite current interest rate differentials favoring the U.S. The dollar is considered significantly overvalued, and the persistent trade deficit may limit its performance [7]. - Concerns about the potential appointment of a "shadow Fed chair" by Trump could add uncertainty to monetary policy, as this individual might influence market expectations and complicate the current Fed chair's policy-making [8].

Core Viewpoint - The risk of stagflation in the U.S. economy is re-emerging, with inflation expected to rise and economic growth slowing down in the second half of the year. The Federal Reserve is likely to be cautious regarding interest rate cuts, which may occur later and be smaller than market expectations [2][3]. Group 1: Causes of Rising Inflation - The impact of tariffs is not fully realized yet, as U.S. companies imported significantly in the first quarter to avoid high tariffs, leading to high inventory levels. Once these inventories are depleted, companies will need to import again, potentially passing on tariff costs to consumers [4]. - Stricter immigration policies have led to labor shortages in key sectors such as construction, agriculture, and elder care, which may drive up wage levels and contribute to inflationary pressures [4]. - Moderate fiscal policies are expected to contribute 0.4 to 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth in the next 12 months, increasing inflation risks [4]. Group 2: Economic Growth Projections - U.S. GDP growth is projected to be below trend levels, with estimates of 1.3% for this year and 1.2% for next year [5]. Group 3: Long-term Fiscal Concerns - The rapid passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which makes the 2017 temporary personal income tax cuts permanent, is expected to increase the budget deficit by over $3 trillion in the next decade. This level of fiscal stimulus is unusual given the already low unemployment rate [8]. - The U.S. government debt has reached about 100% of GDP, with interest payments consuming 3% to 4% of GDP, which is unsustainable. The buyer structure of U.S. debt has shifted, with foreign central banks reducing their purchases, leading to increased volatility in bond yields [8]. - Long-term solutions to the debt issue may require fiscal consolidation, which could involve spending cuts, tax increases, or new tax sources. Alternatively, forced purchases of more government bonds or quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve could lead to inflation [8]. Group 4: Global Economic Outlook - Outside the U.S., other regions are expected to experience slower growth but easing inflation, providing more room for central banks to cut rates. Asian exports are anticipated to decline further in the second half of the year, while Germany's fiscal and infrastructure spending may take time to support economic growth [9]. - The Nomura team holds a "soft dollar" stance due to stagflation pressures in the U.S., despite current interest rate differentials favoring the U.S. The dollar is considered significantly overvalued, and the persistent trade deficit will constrain its performance [9]. Group 5: Monetary Policy Uncertainty - The potential for the Federal Reserve to maintain low interest rates could lead to rising inflation, causing foreign investors to lose confidence in U.S. assets, which may result in higher long-term interest rates and a weaker dollar [11]. - The possibility of appointing a "shadow Federal Reserve Chair" by Trump could create additional uncertainty in monetary policy, complicating the current Fed Chair Powell's role and the FOMC's decision-making process [11].

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra suggests that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell should resign from the Board of Governors when his term as chairman ends in May 2026 to avoid market confusion [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership - Becerra emphasizes that traditionally, the Fed chair resigns from the Board upon leaving the chair position, indicating that Powell's potential continued presence could lead to market chaos [1] - Powell's current term as a Fed governor extends until January 2028, which raises questions about his future role after his chairmanship ends [1] - The process for nominating the next Fed chair has already begun, with many strong candidates both inside and outside the Fed [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, addressed rumors regarding the "shadow Federal Reserve Chair," indicating that such speculation could lead to confusion in the financial markets [1] Group 1 - The term "shadow Federal Reserve Chair" has been circulating, which may create misunderstandings about the Federal Reserve's leadership and decision-making processes [1] - Yellen emphasized the importance of clear communication from the Federal Reserve to avoid misinterpretations that could affect market stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and has called for an investigation into Chairman Powell, suggesting he should resign due to alleged misleading testimony [1][3][4]. Group 1: Pressure on the Federal Reserve - Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell for not lowering interest rates, claiming that the government is incurring high interest costs due to the Fed's inaction [4][6]. - The Federal Reserve has maintained its benchmark interest rate since December, despite Trump's pressure, with Powell stating that future rate cuts depend on upcoming economic data [6][8]. Group 2: Allegations Against Powell - The Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, Bill Pulte, has called for Congress to investigate Powell, accusing him of providing deceptive testimony regarding the Fed's headquarters renovation costs [3][4]. - Powell has defended himself against these allegations, stating that the reports about the renovation were misleading and inaccurate [3][6]. Group 3: Potential Successors for Powell - Trump has mentioned having "two or three candidates" in mind to replace Powell as Fed Chairman, although he has not disclosed their identities [9][10]. - Speculation includes former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh and current White House officials, but the White House has not confirmed any names [10][11]. Group 4: Impact on Market and Dollar - The potential for a "shadow Fed Chair" could undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve and create market instability due to conflicting policy signals [13][15]. - Concerns over the U.S. economic slowdown and rising debt interest costs have led to a significant depreciation of the dollar, which has fallen over 12% against a basket of currencies since January [19].

Core Points - The article discusses the abrupt termination of trade negotiations between the U.S. and Canada by Trump, coinciding with his call for Fed Chair Powell to resign, highlighting escalating trade tensions and political interference in economic matters [1][21][34] Trade Relations - Canada plans to implement a 3% digital services tax on U.S. tech companies, expected to generate approximately CAD 2 billion annually, which Trump perceives as a direct attack on the U.S. [3][6] - Trump's reaction included a complete halt to trade negotiations and a threat to impose tariffs on Canadian goods within a week, leading to a significant drop in the Canadian dollar [5][6] - Canada has previously responded to U.S. tariffs by imposing a 25% tariff on U.S. automobiles not compliant with the USMCA and has also levied tariffs on U.S. goods worth about $43 billion [11][13] Economic Impact - The breakdown of U.S.-Canada trade talks is expected to negatively impact the Canadian economy, particularly the labor market, as indicated by Barclays forex strategist Skylar Montgomery Koning [7] - The Canadian trucking industry, which relies on cross-border trade for about 70% of its cargo, is experiencing a decline in orders, leading to layoffs [19] Federal Reserve Dynamics - Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Powell's leadership, labeling him as "stupid" and "stubborn," and indicated a preference for a successor who is more inclined to lower interest rates [21][23] - Powell's term has 11 months remaining, but Trump may announce a replacement sooner, which could undermine the Fed's independence and create uncertainty in U.S. monetary policy [25][36] Global Economic Uncertainty - The escalation of the U.S.-Canada trade conflict could disrupt global supply chains, leading to shortages and price increases, affecting U.S. exports and employment [34][36] - Other countries, including the EU and Mexico, may respond with their own tariffs, further intensifying global trade tensions [36][38]