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泸州老窖(000568):顺势而为稳下来 蓄势攻坚再出发
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-29 06:42
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a steady revenue growth in 2024, with a focus on high-end product upgrades and digital marketing strategies to enhance brand influence and consumer engagement [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 31.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.47 billion, up 1.7% year-on-year [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 6.89 billion, a decline of 16.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.88 billion, down 29.9% year-on-year [1]. - For the first quarter of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.35 billion, an increase of 1.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.59 billion, up 0.4% year-on-year [1]. Market and Product Development - The market size is steadily progressing, with mid-to-high-end liquor revenue increasing by 2.8% to 27.59 billion and sales volume rising by 14.4% to 43,000 tons in 2024 [1]. - The company’s brand, Guojiao, remains in the 20 billion category, while Luzhou Laojiao has surpassed the 10 billion mark [1]. - The company is transitioning to a digital marketing strategy, launching a five-code product to reshape consumer channels and promote sales through consumer engagement [1]. Brand Strategy and Cultural Engagement - The company is enhancing brand influence through various cultural activities centered around the theme "700 Years of Chinese Strong Aroma," leveraging major events like the Olympics and the 60th anniversary of Sino-French diplomatic relations [2]. - In 2024, Guojiao 1573 was listed among the top 10 most valuable Chinese brands by Hurun [2]. Strategic Outlook - The company is adopting a pragmatic approach to growth, focusing on high-quality development and stabilizing channel dynamics and pricing [2]. - The 2025 operational goal is to achieve steady revenue growth, with a projected EPS of 9.36, 10.34, and 11.21 for 2025-2027 [2].
泸州老窖(000568):稳中求进 静待修复
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-29 02:37
Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2024 annual results and Q1 2025 results, showing stable revenue growth but challenges in profit margins and channel collections [1][2][5]. Revenue Summary - Q1 2025 revenue reached 9.352 billion, a 1.8% increase year-on-year, while Q4 2024 revenue was 6.893 billion, a 16.9% decrease [1]. - For the year 2024, total revenue was 31.196 billion, reflecting a 3.2% increase [1]. - The product performance showed that the low-alcohol product segment outperformed high-alcohol products, which are still undergoing inventory adjustments [3]. Profit Summary - In Q1 2025, the company's gross margin decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 86.5%, primarily due to product mix changes [4]. - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 49.1%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, influenced significantly by the decline in gross margin [4]. - For 2024, the gross margin was 87.5%, down 0.8 percentage points, with mid-to-high-end and other liquor margins also declining [4]. Financial Quality Summary - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue plus contract liabilities decreased by 6.7%, and cash sales fell by 7.3%, indicating challenges in channel collections [5]. Dividend Policy Summary - The company announced a dividend plan for 2024-2026, with cash dividends not less than 65%/70%/75% of profits, and a minimum of 8.5 billion (including tax) each year, slightly exceeding market expectations [6]. Investment Outlook - The company aims for steady progress in 2025, focusing on the stable development of its core product, Guojiao 1573, and deepening its market presence in Sichuan and North China [7]. - The company is expected to navigate the industry adjustment cycle smoothly [8]. Profit Forecast - The company forecasts total revenues of 32.345 billion, 33.968 billion, and 36.605 billion for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.7%, 5.0%, and 7.8% respectively [10]. - Expected net profits for the same period are 13.815 billion, 14.792 billion, and 16.193 billion, with growth rates of 2.5%, 7.1%, and 9.5% respectively [10].