Core Viewpoint - The Vice Governor of Guangdong, Zhang Shaokang, emphasized the strong ties between Guangdong and Switzerland, highlighting the fruitful cooperation in trade, investment, and technology innovation as well as cultural exchanges [1] Group 1: Economic and Trade Relations - Guangdong is committed to high-quality development and is actively promoting the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [1] - The province aims to deepen reforms and expand high-level opening up to enhance economic collaboration with Switzerland [1] Group 2: Strategic Partnerships - The 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and Switzerland is seen as an opportunity to strengthen partnerships and foster innovation [1] - Guangdong expresses a willingness to collaborate with Swiss partners to build bridges of friendship and share opportunities for open development [1]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting between Jiangsu provincial leaders and the chairman of China Export-Import Bank emphasizes the importance of financial support for Jiangsu's development and its integration into national strategies, particularly in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative [1]. Group 1: Financial Support and Cooperation - Jiangsu provincial leaders expressed gratitude for the long-term support from China Export-Import Bank in facilitating the province's development [1]. - The provincial leaders highlighted the need for enhanced financial backing in areas such as foreign trade, international cooperation, and major project construction to support Jiangsu's new development pattern [1]. Group 2: Strategic Focus - The chairman of China Export-Import Bank acknowledged Jiangsu's status as a major economic and open province, indicating significant potential for cooperation [1]. - The bank aims to align its services with national strategies and Jiangsu's development needs, focusing on improving the quality and efficiency of financial services to contribute to high-quality development and open-up initiatives in Jiangsu [1].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming economic policies and planning for the 15th Five-Year Plan are crucial as the Central Committee prepares for the fourth plenary session in October, focusing on economic and social development strategies [2][3]. Economic Policy Direction - The macroeconomic policies will continue to exert influence, with an emphasis on releasing domestic demand potential, deepening reforms, expanding high-level opening-up, and ensuring risk prevention in key areas [3][4]. - Key points from Xi Jinping's speech include maintaining stability while seeking progress, enhancing consumer confidence, and promoting domestic circulation to achieve economic goals for the year [3][4]. Consumer Stimulus and Policy Innovations - A significant focus is on boosting consumption and breaking the cycle of "involution," which aims to enhance the quality of supply and shift economic growth towards domestic consumption [4][5]. - The introduction of a new child-rearing subsidy policy, effective from January 1, 2025, will provide annual subsidies of 3,600 yuan per child for families with children under three years old, marking a significant shift in public policy towards direct cash support for families [5][6]. Anticipated Economic Impact - Economists estimate that the child-rearing subsidy could increase retail sales by approximately 0.2 percentage points nationwide, indicating a potential boost in consumer spending [6]. - The political bureau's meeting highlighted plans for implementing consumption-boosting actions and expanding service consumption, suggesting that improving livelihoods will be a key driver for consumption policies in the 15th Five-Year Plan [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Politburo meeting on July 30, 2025, emphasized the key node of the "15th Five - Year Plan" and continued the "Four Stabilities" policy line. The macro - policy was updated to "continue to exert force and add force in a timely manner", and for the first time proposed to "strengthen the consistency of macro - policy orientation" [1]. - Fiscal policy continued with a more proactive stance, with a more precise requirement on the pace of force exertion. The fiscal acceleration had shown multi - dimensional boosting effects on the economic fundamentals, and the GDP growth rate in the second quarter reached 5.2%. Monetary policy maintained a "moderately loose" stance and focused on precise investment through structural policy tools [2]. - In terms of domestic demand, it emphasized the linkage between people's livelihood and consumption and the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption. In the aspect of deepening reform, it continued to focus on "anti - involution" and related work. The meeting's tone on the bond market was focused on policy continuity and structural optimization, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield was expected to return to rationality, possibly back to the 1.7% central level [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Policy Background and General Tone - The meeting on July 30, 2025, not only deployed the economic work for the second half of the year but also emphasized the key node of the "15th Five - Year Plan". It continued the "Four Stabilities" policy line of the April meeting and emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability. The macro - policy was updated from "continue to exert force and be more powerful" to "continue to exert force and add force in a timely manner" and proposed to strengthen the consistency of macro - policy orientation [1]. 3.2 Fiscal Policy - Continued the "more proactive fiscal policy" tone, and required to speed up the issuance and use of government bonds and improve capital use efficiency. From January to June 2025, the national issuance of new local government bonds was 2.6 trillion yuan, of which 2.16 trillion yuan was special bonds; the total issuance of local government bonds was 5.49 trillion yuan, of which 4.31 trillion yuan was special bonds. The progress of the 4.4 - trillion - yuan special bond quota arranged in the "Government Work Report" had exceeded 90%. The fiscal acceleration had boosted the economic fundamentals, and the second - quarter GDP growth rate reached 5.2% [2]. 3.3 Monetary Policy - Maintained a "moderately loose" stance, aiming to keep liquidity abundant and drive down the comprehensive social financing cost, especially supporting industries such as "technological innovation, boosting consumption, small and micro - enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade". This year, it relied more on structural policy tools for more precise investment [2]. 3.4 Domestic Demand and Reform - In terms of domestic demand, it emphasized the linkage between people's livelihood and consumption, and the need to "cultivate new growth points in service consumption". In the aspect of deepening reform, it continued to focus on "anti - involution", requiring in - depth promotion of the construction of a unified national market, improvement of market competition order, and governance of disorderly competition among enterprises and over - capacity in key industries [3]. 3.5 Impact on the Bond Market - The meeting's tone was focused on policy continuity and structural optimization, and the incremental stimulus layout met market expectations. The short - term expectation disturbance to the bond market might come to an end, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield was expected to return to rationality. Without new interest - rate cut expectations, it might return to the 1.7% central level, or even be in the range of 1.65% - 1.7% when funds were loose [3].

Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasized the need to maintain stability while seeking progress in economic work for the second half of the year, focusing on employment, enterprises, markets, and consumer confidence, while promoting domestic and international dual circulation [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Situation and Policy - The meeting highlighted that the economic operation in the first half of the year showed stability and progress, with a strong foundation and potential for high-quality development [2][3]. - There is a recognition of existing risks and challenges in the economy, necessitating a proactive approach in macroeconomic policies to expand domestic demand and deepen reforms [3][4]. Group 2: Suggestions from Political Parties and Organizations - Various political party leaders and representatives expressed support for the central government's analysis of the economic situation and provided suggestions on promoting technological and industrial innovation, enhancing service consumption, and improving social security for flexible employment groups [2][3]. - The emphasis was placed on the importance of collaboration and political responsibility under the leadership of the Communist Party [3]. Group 3: Future Directions - The central government called for unity in understanding the economic situation and encouraged the use of resources and expertise to propose actionable suggestions for high-quality development [4]. - The need for the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce to guide private economic actors towards high-quality development was also highlighted [4].

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasizes the importance of the 14th Five-Year Plan period for achieving socialist modernization and addressing complex economic challenges while leveraging China's advantages and strengths [2][3]. Economic Development Strategy - The meeting outlines the need to adhere to Marxism, Mao Zedong Thought, Deng Xiaoping Theory, and Xi Jinping's Thought, focusing on building a modern socialist country and achieving the second centenary goal [3]. - It stresses the importance of a new development pattern, balancing domestic and international dynamics, and ensuring quality and reasonable growth in the economy [4]. Macroeconomic Policies - The meeting calls for sustained macroeconomic policies, including proactive fiscal measures and moderately loose monetary policies to enhance policy effectiveness [4]. - Emphasis is placed on stabilizing employment, businesses, markets, and expectations while promoting domestic and international dual circulation [4]. Reform and Innovation - The meeting highlights the need for deepening reforms, fostering technological innovation, and developing competitive emerging industries [5]. - It advocates for a unified national market and optimizing market competition while ensuring compliance with regulations [5]. External Trade and Investment - The meeting stresses the importance of maintaining a stable external trade and investment environment, supporting foreign trade enterprises, and promoting integrated development of domestic and foreign trade [5]. - It also calls for high-level opening-up and enhancing the attractiveness of the domestic capital market [5]. Social Welfare and Employment - The meeting prioritizes employment policies, particularly for key groups such as graduates and veterans, and emphasizes the importance of social safety nets [6]. - It aims to ensure food security and prevent large-scale poverty while maintaining public safety and emergency response capabilities [6]. Engagement and Implementation - The meeting encourages active participation from all sectors, urging leaders and entrepreneurs to adopt a correct view of performance and contribute to high-quality development [6].

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasizes the importance of the 14th Five-Year Plan period for achieving significant progress in socialist modernization, amidst complex economic challenges and opportunities [1][2]. Economic Analysis - The meeting highlights that the current economic environment is characterized by both risks and opportunities, necessitating a focus on maintaining economic recovery momentum [3]. - It acknowledges that under the leadership of the Central Committee, various regions and departments have implemented proactive macroeconomic policies, resulting in stable economic performance and new achievements in high-quality development [2][3]. Policy Recommendations - The meeting stresses the need for continuous and flexible macroeconomic policies, including active fiscal measures and moderately loose monetary policies, to support economic stability and growth [3][4]. - It calls for effective measures to unleash domestic demand, enhance consumption, and stimulate private investment [3][4]. Reform and Innovation - The meeting underscores the commitment to deepening reforms, particularly in fostering technological innovation and developing competitive emerging industries [4][5]. - It emphasizes the importance of optimizing market competition and regulating local investment behaviors to enhance overall market efficiency [4]. External Trade and Investment - The meeting advocates for high-level opening up to stabilize foreign trade and investment, providing support to affected foreign trade enterprises [5]. - It suggests optimizing export tax rebate policies and enhancing the construction of free trade zones [5]. Risk Management - The meeting highlights the necessity of preventing and mitigating risks in key areas, including local government debt and capital market stability [5]. - It stresses the importance of maintaining a robust social safety net and ensuring food security [5]. Employment and Social Welfare - The meeting prioritizes employment policies, particularly for vulnerable groups such as graduates and migrant workers, while ensuring the implementation of social assistance programs [5][6]. - It emphasizes the need to consolidate poverty alleviation efforts and maintain reasonable prices for essential agricultural products [5]. Engagement and Motivation - The meeting calls for motivating all stakeholders, including leaders and entrepreneurs, to align with the new development philosophy and contribute to high-quality economic growth [6].

Economic Policy & Development - The meeting decided to convene the 20th Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee to study current economic situation and work [1] - The meeting will focus on studying the proposal for the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development [1] - Macro policies should be strengthened continuously and appropriately, implementing more proactive fiscal policies and moderately easing monetary policies to fully release policy effects [1] - Structural monetary policy tools should be used to increase support for technological innovation, boost consumption, support small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade [1] Industry & Trade - High-quality promotion of "two major" constructions to stimulate private investment and expand effective investment [2] - Accelerate the cultivation of emerging pillar industries with international competitiveness, and promote the deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation [2] - Advance capacity governance in key industries [2] - Help foreign trade enterprises that are heavily impacted, strengthen financial support, and promote the integrated development of domestic and foreign trade [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Municipal Financial Committee emphasizes the need to align thoughts and actions with the important speech by General Secretary Xi Jinping, focusing on economic development and high-quality growth in the second half of the year [1][2] Group 1: Economic Development Strategy - The meeting highlighted the importance of actively serving the construction of a unified national market and enhancing the role of the Yangtze River Delta in driving economic growth [1] - There is a call to accelerate the high-quality development of the marine economy, leveraging leading enterprises and enhancing the competitiveness of the shipping service industry [1] - The focus is on deepening the market-oriented allocation of factors, improving regulatory enforcement, and addressing "involution" competition [1] Group 2: Policy Implementation and New Growth Drivers - The meeting stressed the need to recognize and grasp the economic development situation, ensuring stability in employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [2] - There is an emphasis on capturing major policy opportunities and concentrating efforts on implementing various policy measures effectively [2] - The importance of cultivating new growth drivers and maintaining strategic agility in niche markets was also highlighted [2] Group 3: Enhancing Economic Work Capabilities - The need to improve the ability to conduct economic work by integrating macro and micro perspectives was emphasized [2] - The meeting called for a problem-oriented approach to identify trends and opportunities from emerging issues [2] - A spirit of striving for excellence and self-pressure was encouraged to foster a proactive and enterprising atmosphere across the city [2]

策略报告 | 投资策略 静待 7 月政治局会议 证券研究报告 政策与大类资产配置周观察 海内外政策要闻 国务院常务会议研究做强国内大循环重点政策举措落实工作。国务院总理李强7 月16日主持召开国务院常务会议，研究做强国内大循环重点政策举措落实工作。 会议指出，做强国内大循环是推动经济行稳致远的战略之举。会议强调，有关部 门要进一步优化政策设计，认真听取各方面意见建议，积极帮助地方和企业解决 困难、促进发展，齐心协力推动经济持续向好。 全国政协召开2025年上半年宏观经济形势分析座谈会。政协主席王沪宁表示，今 年以来，面对国际环境复杂多变、不稳定性不确定性增加的复杂局面，以习近平 同志为核心的中共中央加强对经济工作的全面领导，坚持稳中求进工作总基调， 全面贯彻新发展理念，坚定不移办好自己的事，坚定不移扩大高水平对外开放， 着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期。 美国国会通过"稳定币"法案。当地时间7月17日，美国国会众议院以308票赞 成、122票反对的结果通过了《指导与建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》（Genius Act），旨在对加密货币监管进行重大立法改革。随后7月18日，美国总统特朗普 在白宫正式签署，标志着 ...