Group 1: Market Overview - In the first five months of the year, the retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 8.811 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [1] - In May, the retail sales of passenger cars were 1.932 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 13.3% and a month-on-month increase of 10.1% [1] - The retail sales in May exceeded the highest level of 1.81 million units in May 2018, indicating a strong growth trend [1] Group 2: Brand Performance - Domestic brands achieved a retail sales volume of 1.26 million units in May, a year-on-year increase of 29% and a market share of 65.2%, up 8 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Traditional luxury brands faced a decline in sales, with luxury car retail sales in May dropping by 18% year-on-year, while the market share decreased by 3.9 percentage points [2][3] - The market share of mainstream joint venture brands was 15.3% for German brands, 12.6% for Japanese brands, and 5.2% for American brands, all showing year-on-year declines [2] Group 3: Export and New Energy Vehicles - In May, China's passenger car exports reached 448,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.5% [3] - The export volume of new energy vehicles accounted for 44.5% of total exports, an increase of 16.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year [3] - The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in May reached 1.021 million units, a year-on-year increase of 28.2%, with a penetration rate of 52.9% [6] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Policies - The automotive industry revenue for January to April was 3.25 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, but the profit margin was 4.1%, down 5.1% year-on-year [3] - The industry is experiencing a shift towards more stable development, with a focus on avoiding "involutionary" price wars to maintain fair competition [4][5] - The current inventory level in the automotive industry is at 3.5 million units, indicating a high level of stock and a phase of destocking [8] Group 5: Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its growth trend in June, although the growth rate may slow down due to high base effects from the previous year [8] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles among domestic brands is significantly higher at 74.6%, compared to 25.0% for luxury brands and only 6.4% for mainstream joint venture brands [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 3.92 CNY [7]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.83 billion CNY for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 39.03%. The non-recurring net profit was 4.91 billion CNY, up 80.77% year-on-year [1]. - The company expects significant growth from its Indonesian operations, with plans to invest 60.6 billion CNY in a 250,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project and 63.3 billion CNY for a 2 million-ton alumina capacity [4]. - The automotive sheet market is anticipated to grow rapidly, with the company being a leader in this segment, currently having a production capacity of 200,000 tons and plans for an additional 200,000 tons [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company's net profit was 1.34 billion CNY, a slight increase of 0.59% year-on-year and 2.96% quarter-on-quarter. The non-recurring net profit for the same period was 1.50 billion CNY, up 134.50% year-on-year and 19.70% quarter-on-quarter [1][3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.9 CNY per 10 shares, leading to a total dividend payout of 1.976 billion CNY for 2024, with a payout ratio of 40.92% [3]. Production and Pricing - The company achieved full production capacity of 680,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum domestically, with an expected production of 678,200 tons in 2024. The Indonesian alumina production is projected to reach 500,000 tons in Q4 2024 [2]. - The market prices for aluminum and alumina increased significantly in Q4 2024, with aluminum prices rising by 973 CNY/ton and alumina prices by 1,397 CNY/ton [2]. Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 4.96 billion CNY, 5.15 billion CNY, and 5.35 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a consistent PE ratio of 9x during these years [4][6].