Report Information - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [2] - Date: November 17, 2025 [3] - Researcher: Wang Guodong [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply and demand of carbonate lithium maintain a tight balance. The downstream demand is strong, and it is expected that the subsequent imports of lithium salts from South America will supplement the supply. The price is expected to continue a strong and volatile trend, and it is recommended to build positions at low prices. Attention should be paid to the progress of the mining certificates of Yichun mines and the resumption of production of the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [6]. Summary by Section 1. Weekly Viewpoint Supply Side - Last week, the production of carbonate lithium increased by 385 tons week-on-week to 23,850 tons, and the production in October increased by 10% month-on-month to 105,040 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has been shut down for 3 months, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices for the re - review of mining rights transfers, affecting supply. In the third quarter, Australian mines achieved cost control, and the room for further cost reduction is extremely limited, with most mainstream Australian mines reducing their capital expenditure for fiscal year 25. In September 2025, China imported 711,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 14.7% month - on - month increase. The top three countries in terms of import volume were Australia, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe. The import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 64.1% month - on - month, from Zimbabwe decreased by 7.8% to 109,000 tons, from Nigeria increased by 14.4% to 120,000 tons, and from South Africa increased by 109,000 tons. In September, the import of carbonate lithium was 19,597 tons, a 10.3% month - on - month decrease, with 11,000 tons from Chile, accounting for 55% [5]. - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, and some manufacturers producing carbonate lithium with purchased lithium ore faced cost inversion. Enterprises with their own ore and salt lakes had some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [5]. Demand Side - The overall production schedule in October increased month - on - month, and the production schedule of large battery cell manufacturers in September increased by 8% month - on - month. In October, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 170.6 GWh, a 12.9% month - on - month increase and a 50.5% year - on - year increase. The total export of power and other batteries was 28.2 GWh, a 5.5% month - on - month increase and a 33.5% year - on - year increase. The sales volume of power and other batteries was 166.0 GWh, a 13.3% month - on - month increase and a 50.8% year - on - year increase. The trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax at the policy level are also expected to continue to support the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle market sales in China [6]. Inventory - This week, the inventory of carbonate lithium showed a destocking state, with the factory inventory of carbonate lithium decreasing by 160 tons and the futures inventory decreasing by 162 tons [6]. Strategy Suggestion - From the supply side, the Ningde Jianxiawo mine is still shut down. In October, the domestic production of carbonate lithium increased by 10% month - on - month. In September, the import of lithium concentrate was 711,000 tons, a 14.7% month - on - month increase, and the total import of carbonate lithium in September was about 19,597 tons, a 10% month - on - month decrease and a 20% year - on - year increase. The downstream demand is strong, and the domestic supply and demand maintain a tight balance. It is expected that the subsequent imports of lithium salts from South America will supplement the supply. From the demand side, the terminal demand for energy storage continues to be good. The production schedule of cathode materials in October is expected to increase by 4% month - on - month, and the production schedule in September increased by 8% month - on - month. The risk of mining certificates in Yichun, Jiangxi persists. With the profit recovery, the production of lithium from ore continues to increase, and the cost center moves up. At present, there is still no conclusion on the submission and review of the reserve verification reports of Yichun mining enterprises. The downstream production schedule exceeds expectations, and attention should be paid to the disturbances at the Yichun mine end. During the peak season, downstream enterprises actively purchase carbonate lithium, and the destocking trend continues. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to build positions at low prices and continue to pay attention to the progress of the mining certificates of Yichun mines and the resumption of production of the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [6]. 2. Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot含税均价 of carbonate lithium, weekly and monthly production of carbonate lithium, weekly and factory monthly inventory of carbonate lithium, average prices of carbonate lithium and lithium concentrate, production of power and other batteries, production of different raw - material - based carbonate lithium, differences between domestic power battery production and loading volume, production of cathode materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, average production cost of carbonate lithium, import volume of carbonate lithium and lithium spodumene, and market prices of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials [8][11][13][18][20][23][24][26][30][32][36][38][40][42]. - In October 2024, the production of carbonate lithium from different raw materials accounted for 19.56% from salt lakes, 23.55% from lithium mica, and 44.87% from lithium spodumene [24][25].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand of domestic lithium carbonate remains in a tight balance before the issue of lithium mining licenses in Jiangxi is clearly resolved. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be supported, and it is likely to continue a moderately strong and volatile trend. Traders are advised to be cautious and pay attention to the progress of mining licenses in Yichun mines and the resumption of production at the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Views - **Supply Side** - According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, last week's lithium carbonate production increased by 150 tons week - on - week to 23,320 tons, and October's production increased by 10% month - on - month to 105,040 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has been confirmed to be shut down for 3 months, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices for the re - review of mining rights transfers, affecting supply. In Q3, Australian mines achieved cost control, and the room for further cost reduction is extremely limited, with most mainstream Australian mines reducing their capital expenditure for fiscal year 25. In September 2025, China imported 711,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 14.7% month - on - month increase. The top three importing countries were Australia, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe. Lithium carbonate imports in September were 19,597 tons, a 10.3% month - on - month decrease [5]. - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, causing cost inversion for some manufacturers producing lithium carbonate from externally purchased lithium ore. Enterprises with their own ore and salt lakes have some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers face greater cost pressure [5]. - **Demand Side** - Overall production scheduling in October increased month - on - month, and in September, the production scheduling of large battery cell factories increased by 8% month - on - month. In September, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 151.2 GWh, an 8.3% month - on - month and 35.4% year - on - year increase. The total export of power and other batteries was 26.7 GWh, an 18.2% month - on - month and 28.3% year - on - year increase. The sales volume of power and other batteries was 146.5 GWh, a 9.0% month - on - month and 42.2% year - on - year increase. The trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax at the policy level are also expected to continuously support the rapid growth of China's new energy vehicle market sales [6]. - **Inventory** - This week, lithium carbonate inventory showed a destocking state. Factory inventory decreased by 1,245 tons, market inventory decreased by 59 tons, and futures inventory decreased by 1,078 tons [6]. 3.2. Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple sets of data on lithium carbonate, including historical price trends of spot -含税 average price of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly production, weekly and monthly inventory, average production cost, and production proportion of lithium carbonate from different raw materials in October 2024. It also shows data on battery production (including power and other batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries), production and loading volume differences of domestic power batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries, and production of cathode materials such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, cobalt - acid lithium, and manganese - acid lithium. In addition, it includes price data of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, as well as import volume data of lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene [8][9][11][13][23][24][26][30][31][36][38][42].

Core Insights - The overall sales of the Russian automotive market are projected to reach 1.83 million units in 2024, marking a 91% year-on-year increase, the highest annual sales in recent years [1][8] - In 2025, sales are expected to decline to 136,000 units in September, a 21% year-on-year decrease, while cumulative sales from January to September 2025 are projected at 1.01 million units, down 25% year-on-year [1][9] Market Trends - The Russian automotive market has experienced significant fluctuations, with sales dropping to around 30,000 units per month during the peak of the Ukraine crisis in 2022, but recovering to approximately 100,000 units per month in 2023 [6][8] - The market is expected to stabilize at around 150,000 units per month in 2024, although it may weaken towards the end of the year due to new vehicle purchase policies [6][8] Chinese Automotive Presence - Chinese automotive companies have significantly increased their market share in Russia, achieving over 50% in 2023 and surpassing 60% in monthly market share from June to September 2024 [1][16] - By 2025, the market share of Chinese brands is expected to rebound to 57% in the first nine months, with a slight increase to 59% in September [1][16] Export and Local Sales - In 2023, China exported 1 million vehicles to Russia, with local sales of 480,000 units, representing 48% of the export volume [2][11] - By 2024, exports are projected to rise to 1.28 million units, with local sales reaching 1.07 million units, accounting for 84% of the export volume [2][11] Localization Strategies - Chinese automakers are accelerating localization efforts in Russia, including establishing regional production bases and enhancing local supply chains to mitigate tariff impacts and delivery times [3][12] - Strategies include increasing local component sourcing to over 60%, improving service networks, and adapting products for extreme weather conditions [3][12] Challenges and Risks - The Russian automotive market faces challenges such as increased import taxes, economic recession, high interest rates, and consumer hesitance due to potential returns of international brands [9][12] - The introduction of a significant increase in vehicle scrappage taxes and other protective measures may hinder the competitiveness of Chinese automakers in the Russian market [9][16] Brand Performance - In 2024, the top-performing brands in Russia include AvtoVAZ, Chery, and Geely, while traditional international brands like Toyota and Volkswagen are also present but facing challenges [18][19] - The overall market dynamics are shifting, with local brands gaining ground due to the exit of many international competitors [14][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is affected by factors such as the suspension of the Ningde Jianxiawo mine, the notice of re - examination of mining rights transfer in Yichun and Qinghai, and the reduction in the import of lithium concentrate in August 2025. The cost of some external lithium - ore - purchasing manufacturers is inverted, while self - owned ore and salt - lake enterprises have certain profit support, and lithium hydroxide manufacturers face greater cost pressure [5]. - On the demand side, the overall production schedule in September increased month - on - month, and the production schedule of large battery cell factories increased by 8% month - on - month. The production, export, and sales of power and other batteries in August showed different trends, and policies are expected to support the growth of the new energy vehicle market. This week, lithium carbonate inventory showed a slight destocking state [6]. - Before a clear result on the lithium mining license issue in Jiangxi, the domestic supply - demand remains in a tight balance. The terminal demand for energy storage is good, and the production schedule in October continues to grow. There are continuous risks with mining licenses, and lithium production from ore continues to increase under the background of profit repair, with the cost center rising. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations, and cautious trading is recommended. Attention should be paid to the progress of mining licenses in Yichun mines and the resumption of production at the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Weekly Views Supply - side Situation - According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, last week's lithium carbonate production increased by 505 tons week - on - week to 22,439 tons, and the production in September increased by 3.3% month - on - month to 95,442 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine was confirmed to be shut down for 3 months, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai received notices of re - examination of mining rights transfer [5]. - In the first half of the year, Australian mines achieved cost control, and the space for further cost reduction is extremely limited. Most mainstream Australian mines have reduced their capital expenditures for fiscal year 25. In August 2025, China imported 619,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a month - on - month decrease of 17.5%. The top three importing countries were Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria. The import of lithium concentrate from Australia decreased by 50.5% month - on - month, that from Zimbabwe increased by 83.9% to 118,000 tons, that from Nigeria decreased by 9.5% to 105,000 tons, and the import from Mali increased by 73,000 tons. In August, 21,847 tons of lithium carbonate were imported, a month - on - month increase of 57.8%, with 15,608 tons from Chile, accounting for 71% [5]. - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate decreased week - on - week. Some manufacturers producing lithium carbonate by purchasing external lithium ore faced cost inversion. Self - owned ore and salt - lake enterprises had certain profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [5]. Demand - side Situation - The overall production schedule in September increased month - on - month, and the production schedule of large battery cell factories increased by 8% month - on - month. In August, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 139.6 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.4% and a year - on - year increase of 37.3%. The total export of power and other batteries was 22.6 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6% but a year - on - year increase of 23.9%. The sales volume of power and other batteries was 134.5 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 5.7% and a year - on - year increase of 45.6%. Policies such as the trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax are expected to support the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle market in China [6]. Inventory Situation - This week, lithium carbonate inventory showed a slight destocking state. The inventory of lithium carbonate factories decreased by 905 tons, the market inventory decreased by 1,003 tons, and the futures inventory increased by 960 tons [6]. Strategy Recommendations - Before a clear result on the lithium mining license issue in Jiangxi, the domestic supply - demand remains in a tight balance. The terminal demand for energy storage is good, and the production schedule in October continues to grow. There are continuous risks with mining licenses, and lithium production from ore continues to increase under the background of profit repair, with the cost center rising. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations, and cautious trading is recommended. Attention should be paid to the progress of mining licenses in Yichun mines and the resumption of production at the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [6]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot tax - inclusive average price of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate, average price of lithium concentrate imports, average price of lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial grade), production value of power batteries, production value of lithium iron phosphate power batteries, production - loading volume differences of domestic power batteries and lithium iron phosphate, average production cost of lithium carbonate, monthly production of lithium iron phosphate, monthly production of ternary materials, monthly production of cobalt - acid lithium and manganese - acid lithium, import volume of lithium spodumene, average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate, import volume of lithium carbonate, market price of ternary material 8 - series NCA type, etc. These data cover the time span from 2019 to 2025, reflecting the long - term trends and changes in the lithium carbonate market [8][9][10][14][15][17][18][20][21][23][26][27][30][32][33][35][37].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term lithium carbonate market may maintain low - level fluctuations. The supply side remains rigid under the dominance of the spodumene route, and the resumption of production expectations suppresses the medium - term bullish sentiment. The demand side is supported by pre - holiday stockpiling and rising cell costs, but the peak in retail penetration restricts the upward space. The inventory depletion rhythm may be the key variable. If the weekly inventory reduction continues until the end of September, it may drive the futures price to test the 74,000 yuan/ton resistance level, but the breakthrough momentum is limited [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Market Data Changes**: On September 15, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract slightly declined to 71,160 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 2.4%. The basis weakened to 1,140 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest decreased from 351,000 lots to 309,000 lots, a decrease of 12%, and the trading volume shrank from 592,000 lots to 411,000 lots [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The domestic lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained stable at 66.41%. The resumption of production at CATL's Jianxiawo lithium mine has limited impact before November. The supply mainly depends on the spodumene route, and the proportion of the lepidolite route has dropped to 15%. The demand growth rate has slowed down marginally. The retail volume of new energy vehicles decreased by 3% year - on - year in the first two weeks of September, although the wholesale volume increased by 5%. The lithium carbonate social inventory decreased from 140,000 tons to 139,000 tons, a decrease of 1.1% [2]. - **Market Conclusion**: The short - term lithium carbonate market may maintain low - level fluctuations. The inventory depletion rhythm may be the key variable. If the weekly inventory reduction continues until the end of September, it may drive the futures price to test the 74,000 yuan/ton resistance level, but the breakthrough power is limited [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Price Changes**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 2.14% from September 12 to September 15. The basis decreased by 150.88%. The open interest of the main contract increased by 0.01%, and the trading volume increased by 17.47%. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.28%. The prices of some downstream products such as ternary materials and some types of cells increased [5]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market**: On September 15, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased by 18 yuan/ton. The market trading weakened. The proportion of lithium carbonate produced from spodumene has exceeded 60%, while that from lepidolite has dropped to 15%. The market in September shows a situation of simultaneous growth in supply and demand, with demand growing faster, and there may be a temporary supply shortage [6]. - **Downstream Consumption**: From September 1 - 7, the national retail volume of new energy passenger vehicles decreased by 3% year - on - year, and the wholesale volume increased by 5% year - on - year [7]. - **Industry News**: The price of cobalt intermediates continued to rise. Due to the Congo (Kinshasa) policy, there may be a shortage of cobalt intermediate raw materials in China in the future. On September 10, there were reports of the resumption of production at CATL's Jianxiawo lithium mine, but the resumption time is uncertain [9][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is affected by factors such as mine shutdowns and license reviews, while demand is supported by increased production schedules in August. The market is expected to remain in a tight - balance state, with prices likely to continue wide - range fluctuations. It is recommended to trade cautiously and keep an eye on upstream production cuts and cathode material plant production schedules [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Viewpoint Supply - Last week, lithium carbonate production decreased by 88 tons to 20,350 tons, and July production increased by 5.8% month - on - month to 85,690 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine will be shut down for 3 months, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices for mine - right transfer reviews. In Q1, Australian mines achieved cost control, and there is limited room for further cost reduction. Most mainstream Australian mines have reduced their capital expenditure for FY25. In July 2025, China imported 751,000 tons of lithium ore, a 30.3% month - on - month increase. The top three importing countries were Australia, Nigeria, and South Africa. The import volume from Australia was about 427,000 tons, a 67% month - on - month and 12.8% year - on - year increase. The import volume from Zimbabwe decreased by 36% month - on - month to about 64,000 tons, and from Nigeria it increased by 47% month - on - month to 116,000 tons. The import volume of lithium carbonate in July was 14,000 tons, a 22% month - on - month decrease, with 9,000 tons from Chile, accounting for 62% [5] - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, causing cost inversion for some lithium carbonate manufacturers using purchased lithium ore. Enterprises with their own ore and salt lakes have some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers face greater cost pressure [5] Demand - In August, the overall production schedule increased month - on - month, with large battery cell manufacturers' production schedules increasing by 7% month - on - month. In July, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 133.8 GWh, a 3.6% month - on - month and 44.3% year - on - year increase. The total export of power and other batteries was 23.2 GWh, a 4.7% month - on - month decrease but a 35.4% year - on - year increase. The sales volume of power and other batteries was 127.2 GWh, a 3.2% month - on - month decrease but a 47.8% year - on - year increase. The trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax are expected to support the sales growth of the new energy vehicle market in China [6] Inventory - This week, lithium carbonate inventory decreased. Factory inventory decreased by 590 tons, market inventory decreased by 4,631 tons, and futures inventory increased by 4,897 tons [6] Strategy Suggestion - Considering the supply side, with the Ningde Jianxiawo mine shutdown and the mine - right review in Yichun and Qinghai, the supply is affected. Although July domestic lithium carbonate production increased month - on - month and lithium concentrate imports also rose, lithium salt imports decreased. It is expected that South American lithium salt imports will supplement the supply. On the demand side, the terminal demand for energy storage is good, and the production schedule of large battery cell manufacturers increased in August. Due to the uncertainty of the mining license issue in Yichun, Jiangxi, and the frequent impact of mine - end production cuts on the overall supply, downstream purchases of lithium carbonate are relatively cautious. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to trade cautiously and pay attention to upstream enterprise production cuts and cathode material plant production schedules [6] 3.2 Key Data Tracking - The content mainly presents various data charts related to lithium carbonate, including historical price trends, weekly and monthly production, weekly and monthly inventory, average prices of lithium concentrate and related products, production and import volumes of lithium - related products, etc. These data cover different time periods from 2019 to 2025, providing a comprehensive view of the lithium carbonate market's historical and current situation [9][10][11][12][13][14][15][18][19][20][21][22][24][25][26][27][28][29][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][40][41][42][43][44][45][46]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 4.06 yuan [7]. Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2025 showed a revenue of 17.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.63 billion yuan, up 20.0% year-on-year. However, Q2 2025 saw a revenue decline of 1.8% year-on-year and a significant net profit drop of 31.1% year-on-year, primarily due to falling alumina prices [1][2]. - The company is progressing steadily with its Indonesian projects, including the commissioning of the first phase of a 1 million-ton alumina capacity and ongoing construction of additional capacities [3][4]. - The growth potential in the automotive aluminum sheet market is highlighted, with expectations of increased demand due to stricter energy consumption requirements and the company's leading position in this segment [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 17.27 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.63 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.0%. The Q2 2025 results showed a revenue of 8.29 billion yuan, down 1.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.92 billion yuan, down 31.1% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 28.5%, up 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 19.2%, up 2.4 percentage points year-on-year. However, Q2 2025 saw a gross margin drop to 23.7%, down 9.2 percentage points from the previous quarter [2]. Project Development - The Indonesian alumina project has a total capacity of 2 million tons, with the first phase of 1 million tons already in production. The second phase is progressing as planned, alongside the construction of a 250,000-ton electrolytic aluminum and 260,000-ton carbon product capacity [3][4]. Market Outlook - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the automotive aluminum sheet market, driven by increasing demand for lightweight materials. The company is positioned to benefit from this trend, with part of its 200,000-ton capacity already in production [4]. - The company plans to invest 6.06 billion yuan in Indonesia for the construction of additional capacities, which is expected to enhance its growth prospects in the region [4]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.93 billion yuan in 2025, 5.20 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.68 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 10x, 9x, and 8x respectively [4][6].

Report Overview - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report: Cooling Production Cut Expectations, Price Under Pressure to Correct - Report Date: August 4, 2025 - Report Author: Li Ni from Yangtze River Futures' Industrial Service Headquarters - Non - ferrous Metals Center 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of carbonate lithium is affected by factors such as mine project restarts and mine - right transfer reviews. Although the production in June increased, the future supply situation remains uncertain. The import volume of lithium ore and lithium salt decreased in June [4]. - The demand for carbonate lithium shows an upward trend. The overall production schedule in July increased, and the production, export, and sales of power and other batteries in June all increased. Policies are expected to support the growth of the new energy vehicle market [5]. - The inventory of carbonate lithium showed a cumulative state this week. The factory inventory decreased, while the market inventory increased, and the futures inventory decreased [5]. - It is expected that the short - term price of carbonate lithium has support, but the downstream procurement is relatively cautious. The price is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations. It is recommended to trade cautiously and pay attention to the upstream enterprise production cut situation and the cathode material factory production schedule [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Viewpoints Supply - Last week, the production of carbonate lithium decreased by 310 tons to 18,238 tons. In June, the production increased by 10.9% to 80,962 tons. Recently, many mine projects have restarted, but the production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received mine - right transfer review notices, affecting the supply [4]. - In the first quarter, Australian mines achieved cost control, and the further cost - reduction space is extremely limited. Most mainstream Australian mines have reduced their capital expenditure in fiscal year 2025 [4]. - In June 2025, the import volume of lithium ore in China was 576,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.8%. The top three import countries were Australia, Zimbabwe, and South Africa. The import volume from Australia decreased by 31% month - on - month, while that from Zimbabwe increased by 3% and from South Africa increased by 87%. The import volume of carbonate lithium in June was 18,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16%, with 12,000 tons imported from Chile, accounting for 56% [4]. - The CIF price of imported spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week. Some manufacturers producing carbonate lithium with purchased lithium ore faced cost inversion. Self - owned ore and salt - lake enterprises had certain profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [4]. Demand - The overall production schedule in July increased month - on - month, with large - scale cell factories' production schedule increasing by 10% [5]. - In June, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 129.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.6% and a year - on - year increase of 51.4%. The total export of power and other batteries was 24.4 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 27.9% and a year - on - year increase of 22.5%. The sales volume of power and other batteries was 131.4 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 6.3% and a year - on - year increase of 41.7% [5]. - The introduction of the trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax at the policy level are expected to continuously support the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle market sales in China [5]. Inventory - This week, the inventory of carbonate lithium showed a cumulative state. The factory inventory decreased by 130 tons, the market inventory increased by 5,784 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 5,391 tons [5]. Strategy Suggestions - From the supply side, the renewal of mica mine certificates in Yichun has no further impact. The domestic production of carbonate lithium increased by 10.9% in June. Recently, lithium salt factories have been producing stably. The import volume of lithium concentrate decreased by 5% in June, and the import of lithium salt decreased by 16% month - on - month. It is expected that the future import volume of lithium salt from South America will supplement the supply [5]. - From the demand side, the terminal demand for energy storage is good, and the production schedule of large - scale cell factories increased by 10% in July. Although many mine projects have restarted, the production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received mine - right transfer review notices, and the mine rights of leading enterprises will expire in August, affecting the supply. Under the background of profit repair, the production of lithium extracted from ore continues to increase, and the overall supply is stable. CATL said that the mining work is normal and has submitted materials for approval [5]. - It is recommended to trade cautiously and continuously pay attention to the upstream enterprise production cut situation and the cathode material factory production schedule [5]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking - Multiple sets of trend charts are provided, including the weekly and monthly production of carbonate lithium, weekly and monthly inventory, average price of lithium concentrate, average price of industrial - grade carbonate lithium, monthly factory inventory of carbonate lithium, average production cost of carbonate lithium, production of power batteries, production of different raw - material carbonate lithium, production of cathode materials (phosphate iron lithium, ternary materials), import volume of spodumene, import volume of carbonate lithium, and prices of related materials (phosphate iron lithium, ternary materials 8 - series NCA type) from 2019 to 2025 [7][8][9][13][14][17][18][20][24][25][28][32][33][35][37]. - In 2024, the production of carbonate lithium from different raw materials accounted for 22.56% from salt lakes, 22.05% from lithium mica, and 43.87% from spodumene [19][20].

Group 1: Market Overview - In the first five months of the year, the retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 8.811 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [1] - In May, the retail sales of passenger cars were 1.932 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 13.3% and a month-on-month increase of 10.1% [1] - The retail sales in May exceeded the highest level of 1.81 million units in May 2018, indicating a strong growth trend [1] Group 2: Brand Performance - Domestic brands achieved a retail sales volume of 1.26 million units in May, a year-on-year increase of 29% and a market share of 65.2%, up 8 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Traditional luxury brands faced a decline in sales, with luxury car retail sales in May dropping by 18% year-on-year, while the market share decreased by 3.9 percentage points [2][3] - The market share of mainstream joint venture brands was 15.3% for German brands, 12.6% for Japanese brands, and 5.2% for American brands, all showing year-on-year declines [2] Group 3: Export and New Energy Vehicles - In May, China's passenger car exports reached 448,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.5% [3] - The export volume of new energy vehicles accounted for 44.5% of total exports, an increase of 16.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year [3] - The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in May reached 1.021 million units, a year-on-year increase of 28.2%, with a penetration rate of 52.9% [6] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Policies - The automotive industry revenue for January to April was 3.25 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, but the profit margin was 4.1%, down 5.1% year-on-year [3] - The industry is experiencing a shift towards more stable development, with a focus on avoiding "involutionary" price wars to maintain fair competition [4][5] - The current inventory level in the automotive industry is at 3.5 million units, indicating a high level of stock and a phase of destocking [8] Group 5: Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its growth trend in June, although the growth rate may slow down due to high base effects from the previous year [8] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles among domestic brands is significantly higher at 74.6%, compared to 25.0% for luxury brands and only 6.4% for mainstream joint venture brands [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 3.92 CNY [7]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.83 billion CNY for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 39.03%. The non-recurring net profit was 4.91 billion CNY, up 80.77% year-on-year [1]. - The company expects significant growth from its Indonesian operations, with plans to invest 60.6 billion CNY in a 250,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project and 63.3 billion CNY for a 2 million-ton alumina capacity [4]. - The automotive sheet market is anticipated to grow rapidly, with the company being a leader in this segment, currently having a production capacity of 200,000 tons and plans for an additional 200,000 tons [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company's net profit was 1.34 billion CNY, a slight increase of 0.59% year-on-year and 2.96% quarter-on-quarter. The non-recurring net profit for the same period was 1.50 billion CNY, up 134.50% year-on-year and 19.70% quarter-on-quarter [1][3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.9 CNY per 10 shares, leading to a total dividend payout of 1.976 billion CNY for 2024, with a payout ratio of 40.92% [3]. Production and Pricing - The company achieved full production capacity of 680,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum domestically, with an expected production of 678,200 tons in 2024. The Indonesian alumina production is projected to reach 500,000 tons in Q4 2024 [2]. - The market prices for aluminum and alumina increased significantly in Q4 2024, with aluminum prices rising by 973 CNY/ton and alumina prices by 1,397 CNY/ton [2]. Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 4.96 billion CNY, 5.15 billion CNY, and 5.35 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a consistent PE ratio of 9x during these years [4][6].