【产业服务总部|有色中心】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 碳酸锂周报 2025/9/1 01 周度观点 l 供需状况： 供应端：据百川盈孚统计，上周碳酸锂产量环比减少88吨至20350吨，7月产量环比增加5.8%至85690吨。宁德枧下窝矿山确认停产3 个月，宜春和青海地区生产企业均收到矿权转让重审的通知，供应受到影响。一季度澳矿实现对成本的管控，澳矿进一步降本空间极 为有限，主流澳矿基本均已下调25财年资本开支。海外进口方面，2025年7月中国锂矿石进口数量为75.1万吨，环比增加30.3%，其 中进口量前三的国家分别为澳大利亚、尼日利亚、南非，从澳大利亚进口约为42.7万吨，环比增加67%，同比增加12.8%。从津巴布 韦进口锂矿量约6.4万吨，环比减少36%，从尼日利亚进口锂矿11.6万，环比增加47%。7月碳酸锂进口量为1.4万吨，环比减少22%， 自智利进口碳酸锂0.9万吨，占比62%。 成本：进口锂辉石精矿CIF价周度环比上涨，部分外购锂矿生产碳酸锂厂家出现成本倒挂。自有矿石及盐湖企业利润有一定支撑，氢 氧化锂厂商成 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 4.06 yuan [7]. Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2025 showed a revenue of 17.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.63 billion yuan, up 20.0% year-on-year. However, Q2 2025 saw a revenue decline of 1.8% year-on-year and a significant net profit drop of 31.1% year-on-year, primarily due to falling alumina prices [1][2]. - The company is progressing steadily with its Indonesian projects, including the commissioning of the first phase of a 1 million-ton alumina capacity and ongoing construction of additional capacities [3][4]. - The growth potential in the automotive aluminum sheet market is highlighted, with expectations of increased demand due to stricter energy consumption requirements and the company's leading position in this segment [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 17.27 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.63 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.0%. The Q2 2025 results showed a revenue of 8.29 billion yuan, down 1.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.92 billion yuan, down 31.1% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 28.5%, up 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 19.2%, up 2.4 percentage points year-on-year. However, Q2 2025 saw a gross margin drop to 23.7%, down 9.2 percentage points from the previous quarter [2]. Project Development - The Indonesian alumina project has a total capacity of 2 million tons, with the first phase of 1 million tons already in production. The second phase is progressing as planned, alongside the construction of a 250,000-ton electrolytic aluminum and 260,000-ton carbon product capacity [3][4]. Market Outlook - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the automotive aluminum sheet market, driven by increasing demand for lightweight materials. The company is positioned to benefit from this trend, with part of its 200,000-ton capacity already in production [4]. - The company plans to invest 6.06 billion yuan in Indonesia for the construction of additional capacities, which is expected to enhance its growth prospects in the region [4]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.93 billion yuan in 2025, 5.20 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.68 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 10x, 9x, and 8x respectively [4][6].

Report Overview - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report: Cooling Production Cut Expectations, Price Under Pressure to Correct - Report Date: August 4, 2025 - Report Author: Li Ni from Yangtze River Futures' Industrial Service Headquarters - Non - ferrous Metals Center 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of carbonate lithium is affected by factors such as mine project restarts and mine - right transfer reviews. Although the production in June increased, the future supply situation remains uncertain. The import volume of lithium ore and lithium salt decreased in June [4]. - The demand for carbonate lithium shows an upward trend. The overall production schedule in July increased, and the production, export, and sales of power and other batteries in June all increased. Policies are expected to support the growth of the new energy vehicle market [5]. - The inventory of carbonate lithium showed a cumulative state this week. The factory inventory decreased, while the market inventory increased, and the futures inventory decreased [5]. - It is expected that the short - term price of carbonate lithium has support, but the downstream procurement is relatively cautious. The price is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations. It is recommended to trade cautiously and pay attention to the upstream enterprise production cut situation and the cathode material factory production schedule [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Viewpoints Supply - Last week, the production of carbonate lithium decreased by 310 tons to 18,238 tons. In June, the production increased by 10.9% to 80,962 tons. Recently, many mine projects have restarted, but the production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received mine - right transfer review notices, affecting the supply [4]. - In the first quarter, Australian mines achieved cost control, and the further cost - reduction space is extremely limited. Most mainstream Australian mines have reduced their capital expenditure in fiscal year 2025 [4]. - In June 2025, the import volume of lithium ore in China was 576,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.8%. The top three import countries were Australia, Zimbabwe, and South Africa. The import volume from Australia decreased by 31% month - on - month, while that from Zimbabwe increased by 3% and from South Africa increased by 87%. The import volume of carbonate lithium in June was 18,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16%, with 12,000 tons imported from Chile, accounting for 56% [4]. - The CIF price of imported spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week. Some manufacturers producing carbonate lithium with purchased lithium ore faced cost inversion. Self - owned ore and salt - lake enterprises had certain profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [4]. Demand - The overall production schedule in July increased month - on - month, with large - scale cell factories' production schedule increasing by 10% [5]. - In June, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 129.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.6% and a year - on - year increase of 51.4%. The total export of power and other batteries was 24.4 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 27.9% and a year - on - year increase of 22.5%. The sales volume of power and other batteries was 131.4 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 6.3% and a year - on - year increase of 41.7% [5]. - The introduction of the trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax at the policy level are expected to continuously support the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle market sales in China [5]. Inventory - This week, the inventory of carbonate lithium showed a cumulative state. The factory inventory decreased by 130 tons, the market inventory increased by 5,784 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 5,391 tons [5]. Strategy Suggestions - From the supply side, the renewal of mica mine certificates in Yichun has no further impact. The domestic production of carbonate lithium increased by 10.9% in June. Recently, lithium salt factories have been producing stably. The import volume of lithium concentrate decreased by 5% in June, and the import of lithium salt decreased by 16% month - on - month. It is expected that the future import volume of lithium salt from South America will supplement the supply [5]. - From the demand side, the terminal demand for energy storage is good, and the production schedule of large - scale cell factories increased by 10% in July. Although many mine projects have restarted, the production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received mine - right transfer review notices, and the mine rights of leading enterprises will expire in August, affecting the supply. Under the background of profit repair, the production of lithium extracted from ore continues to increase, and the overall supply is stable. CATL said that the mining work is normal and has submitted materials for approval [5]. - It is recommended to trade cautiously and continuously pay attention to the upstream enterprise production cut situation and the cathode material factory production schedule [5]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking - Multiple sets of trend charts are provided, including the weekly and monthly production of carbonate lithium, weekly and monthly inventory, average price of lithium concentrate, average price of industrial - grade carbonate lithium, monthly factory inventory of carbonate lithium, average production cost of carbonate lithium, production of power batteries, production of different raw - material carbonate lithium, production of cathode materials (phosphate iron lithium, ternary materials), import volume of spodumene, import volume of carbonate lithium, and prices of related materials (phosphate iron lithium, ternary materials 8 - series NCA type) from 2019 to 2025 [7][8][9][13][14][17][18][20][24][25][28][32][33][35][37]. - In 2024, the production of carbonate lithium from different raw materials accounted for 22.56% from salt lakes, 22.05% from lithium mica, and 43.87% from spodumene [19][20].

Group 1: Market Overview - In the first five months of the year, the retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 8.811 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [1] - In May, the retail sales of passenger cars were 1.932 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 13.3% and a month-on-month increase of 10.1% [1] - The retail sales in May exceeded the highest level of 1.81 million units in May 2018, indicating a strong growth trend [1] Group 2: Brand Performance - Domestic brands achieved a retail sales volume of 1.26 million units in May, a year-on-year increase of 29% and a market share of 65.2%, up 8 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Traditional luxury brands faced a decline in sales, with luxury car retail sales in May dropping by 18% year-on-year, while the market share decreased by 3.9 percentage points [2][3] - The market share of mainstream joint venture brands was 15.3% for German brands, 12.6% for Japanese brands, and 5.2% for American brands, all showing year-on-year declines [2] Group 3: Export and New Energy Vehicles - In May, China's passenger car exports reached 448,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.5% [3] - The export volume of new energy vehicles accounted for 44.5% of total exports, an increase of 16.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year [3] - The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in May reached 1.021 million units, a year-on-year increase of 28.2%, with a penetration rate of 52.9% [6] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Policies - The automotive industry revenue for January to April was 3.25 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, but the profit margin was 4.1%, down 5.1% year-on-year [3] - The industry is experiencing a shift towards more stable development, with a focus on avoiding "involutionary" price wars to maintain fair competition [4][5] - The current inventory level in the automotive industry is at 3.5 million units, indicating a high level of stock and a phase of destocking [8] Group 5: Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its growth trend in June, although the growth rate may slow down due to high base effects from the previous year [8] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles among domestic brands is significantly higher at 74.6%, compared to 25.0% for luxury brands and only 6.4% for mainstream joint venture brands [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 3.92 CNY [7]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.83 billion CNY for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 39.03%. The non-recurring net profit was 4.91 billion CNY, up 80.77% year-on-year [1]. - The company expects significant growth from its Indonesian operations, with plans to invest 60.6 billion CNY in a 250,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project and 63.3 billion CNY for a 2 million-ton alumina capacity [4]. - The automotive sheet market is anticipated to grow rapidly, with the company being a leader in this segment, currently having a production capacity of 200,000 tons and plans for an additional 200,000 tons [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company's net profit was 1.34 billion CNY, a slight increase of 0.59% year-on-year and 2.96% quarter-on-quarter. The non-recurring net profit for the same period was 1.50 billion CNY, up 134.50% year-on-year and 19.70% quarter-on-quarter [1][3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.9 CNY per 10 shares, leading to a total dividend payout of 1.976 billion CNY for 2024, with a payout ratio of 40.92% [3]. Production and Pricing - The company achieved full production capacity of 680,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum domestically, with an expected production of 678,200 tons in 2024. The Indonesian alumina production is projected to reach 500,000 tons in Q4 2024 [2]. - The market prices for aluminum and alumina increased significantly in Q4 2024, with aluminum prices rising by 973 CNY/ton and alumina prices by 1,397 CNY/ton [2]. Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 4.96 billion CNY, 5.15 billion CNY, and 5.35 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a consistent PE ratio of 9x during these years [4][6].