Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The copper price opened higher in the morning and showed an overall trend of increasing positions and rising prices during the day, with the main contract price breaking through the 78,000 mark. Favorable factors include a good market atmosphere, a decline in the US dollar index, and a slight decrease in social inventories. It is expected to maintain a strong performance in the short - term, and investors can consider selling out - of - the - money put options [5]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price opened higher in the morning and maintained a strong performance during the day. The position increased slightly, and the main contract price broke through the 20,200 mark. Benefiting from good downstream demand, social inventories of electrolytic aluminum continued to decline at a low level. It is expected to maintain a strong performance in the short - term, and investors can consider selling out - of - the - money put options [6]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price rebounded after hitting the bottom last night. The main contract price once fell below the 119,000 mark, but then continued to rise with decreasing positions during the day, indicating a strong willingness of short - sellers to close their positions. It is expected that the price will continue to rebound [7]. 3. Section Summaries Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On May 29, ICSG reported that the global refined copper market had a surplus of 17,000 tons in March 2025, down from 180,000 tons in February. The production was 2.43 million tons and consumption was 2.41 million tons. From January to March 2025, the global copper market had a surplus of 289,000 tons, compared with 268,000 tons in the same period last year. After adjustment, the surplus in March was 38,000 tons. Also, Chile raised its copper price forecasts for 2025 and 2026, expecting an average price of $4.30 per pound this year [9]. - **Nickel**: On May 29, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE Ni2507 contract. The prices of different types of nickel with their respective premiums were provided, such as Jinchuan electrolytic nickel at 122,910 yuan/ton with a premium of +2,600 yuan/ton [10]. Related Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: Charts cover aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: Charts involve nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][37][39].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The main copper futures price fluctuated narrowly below 78,000 today. After the peak season, the short - term social inventory of electrolytic copper started to accumulate, putting pressure on copper prices. It may also be due to the decline in market demand expectations. However, the domestic social inventory is still at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, and with domestic macro - stimulus, the consumption expectation is good. Additionally, the low processing fees of upstream smelters continue, and the supply is expected to decline. Overall, the futures price has strong fundamental support and is expected to fluctuate [5]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices increased in volume and maintained a strong upward trend. At the industrial level, recent disturbances in the alumina ore end led to the rise of futures prices, providing some support for aluminum prices. The social inventory of aluminum ingots is normalizing and is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, and the downstream aluminum rod inventory is also low. The futures price is expected to remain strong, and attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices rebounded to 124,000 last night and weakened during the day. The nickel price center has been continuously moving down, and the amplitude has narrowed. Currently, the nickel industry is neutral in the short - term and bearish in the long - term. The futures price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the technical support at 123,000 [7]. 3. Industry Dynamics Copper - On May 22, the social inventory of electrolytic copper was 143,700 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons compared to May 19 and 8,000 tons compared to May 15 [9]. - The Kakula underground mine in the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo suspended mining operations on May 18 due to multiple mine tremors in the eastern area of the Kakula mine last week [9]. Aluminum - On May 22, the electrolytic aluminum inventory was 557,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared to May 19 and 31,000 tons compared to May 15 [10]. - In April 2025, the global primary aluminum production was 6.033 million tons, compared with 5.901 million tons in the same period last year, and the revised value of the previous month was 6.237 million tons. The primary aluminum production in China in April is estimated to be 3.621 million tons, and the revised value of the previous month was 3.742 million tons [10]. Nickel - On May 22, for the refined nickel Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract, the Jinchuan electrolytic nickel had a mainstream premium of +2,150 yuan/ton at a price of 125,500 yuan/ton; Russian nickel had a mainstream premium of +300 yuan/ton at a price of 123,650 yuan/ton; Norwegian nickel had a mainstream premium of +2,600 yuan/ton at a price of 125,950 yuan/ton; and nickel beans had a mainstream premium of - 900 yuan/ton at a price of 122,450 yuan/ton [11]. 4. Relevant Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancellation warrant ratio, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [12][14][15] Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [24][25][27] Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][40]