周二沪铜城仓回吐昨日涨幅，现铜报79585元，沪粤分别升水130、65元/吨。美国将铜列入2025关键矿物清单， 可使相关项目更有资格获得联邦资金支持或适用简化许可程序,同时银、铝和硅也被列入该清单。沪铜整数关 阻力强,高位空单持有。 | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月26日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铝 | なな☆ | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 氧化铝 | ななな | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 锌 | ☆☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 铝 | な女女 | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 碳酸锂 | ★☆☆ | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 工业硅 | ☆☆☆ | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 多晶硅 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essenc ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Jin Hui Co., Ltd. (603132.SH) reported its semi-annual results for 2025, highlighting significant institutional ownership in the company [1] - As of August 15, 2025, a total of 8 institutional investors disclosed holding shares in Jin Hui Co., Ltd., with a combined holding of 891 million shares, representing 91.15% of the total share capital [1] - The institutional investors include Gansu Yate Investment Group Co., Ltd., Zhongming International Holdings Group Co., Ltd., and others, with a slight decrease of 0.05 percentage points in institutional holding compared to the previous quarter [1] Group 2 - One new public fund was disclosed in this period, namely the Zhongshan Zhongzheng Nonferrous Metals Mining Theme ETF [1] - Two public funds were not disclosed in this period compared to the previous quarter, including Shenwan Hongyuan Quantitative Small Cap Stock (LOF) A and Jinying Xinyi Mixed A [1]

2025/8/5 16:22 d6bfaa2eb2fc85df424101a7b1708628.png (4808×9816) | | | 有色金属周度观点 国发期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 国授期货 | 研究院有色全属团队 | 2025/8/5 | | 序号 | 品产 | 主要观点(最新逻辑变化) | | | | 衡向铜价震高下调。1) 情绪:美国浸防段232铜芙股征收对象大超预期,夹伦街老瑟利逻排破裂. 夹盘暴跌, 恰老目归到100美元:伦导沪 铜廷徐震荡。7月主要经济体制造业IIII萎缩为主:IIF表示受益关极不确定带来的进口图货需求,上调今年经济增速预期。25至35, 如预期"按兵不动",且然美国6月核心死后同比上激2.8%,创四个月新高,但英国过去两个月非袁就业人数大幅下滑,市场认为8月下调利 | | 1 | | 率为大概率事件,降息交易情绪升温。2)团内供藏:沪桐减仓明显,跌破460日均线后,在7.8万暂获支撑,市况仍属该季。周二观阴报 | | 월 | | 78615元,上科钢开水130元,广东贴水55元,周一胡风铜社库增加300吨至13.43万吨,因产货源与进口铜到货均有 ...

【铜】 周五沪铜MA60日均线收阳,智利Codelco矿场出现人员伤亡事故。市场也在评估特朗普关税政策。空单持有。 | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月01日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铝 | な女女 | F3047773 Z0014087 | | | | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 锌 | 铸造铝合金 文文文 な女女 | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 铝 | な女女 | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 碳酸锂 | ★☆☆ | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 工业硅 | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | な女女 | | | 多晶硅 | な女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铝&氧化铝&铝合金】 今日沪铝震荡,华东现货贴水20元。近期铝锭延续累库,淡季表 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Nonferrous Mining (01258) experienced a stock price increase of over 3% following a profit forecast, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company's financial outlook [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a profit attributable to shareholders of approximately $258 million for the six months ending June 30, 2025, representing an increase of about 18% compared to the same period ending June 30, 2024 [1] - The increase in profit is primarily driven by rising international copper prices and an increase in copper production from the company's own mines compared to the same period in 2024 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The emphasis is on leveraging technological innovation to drive industrial innovation and build a world-class mining enterprise, focusing on national strategic resource security and the safety of non-ferrous metal new materials [1] Group 1 - The need to align with national strategic resource security and focus on core responsibilities and main business areas [1] - The importance of value creation as a guiding principle for the company's operations [1] - The commitment to continuous reform, innovation, and enhancing core competitiveness [1] Group 2 - The call for international business expansion and optimizing structural layout [1] - The role of technological innovation and industry control in supporting safety and operational effectiveness [1] - The goal of better social contribution through cooperative and shared efforts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Indian Minister of Mines emphasizes the need to double the production of aluminum and copper by 2030 [1] Group 1: Industry Goals - The Indian government aims to significantly increase the output of aluminum and copper, indicating a strong focus on enhancing the mining sector [1] - Doubling production targets reflects the government's commitment to boosting domestic mineral resources and meeting future demand [1] Group 2: Strategic Importance - The initiative to increase aluminum and copper production is crucial for supporting various industries, including construction and electronics, which rely heavily on these metals [1] - This move is expected to strengthen India's position in the global metals market and reduce dependency on imports [1]

Group 1 - China Nonferrous Mining (01258) shares increased by nearly 3%, trading at HKD 7.27 with a transaction volume of HKD 55.36 million [1] - The company announced a preliminary agreement to transfer 5% of SM Minerals' shares for USD 5 million, with specific dates for the transactions set for November 20, 2024, January 24, 2025, and April 25, 2025 [1] - By June 16, 2025, SM Minerals will issue shares to the company, which will acquire 10.5% of SM Minerals' issued share capital, primarily funding the Karala mining project for technical exploration and development [1] Group 2 - SM Minerals is registered in the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC) and holds mining rights for the North Karala and South Karala assets [2] - The North Karala mining rights contain approximately 1.5 million tons of copper metal, providing sufficient resources for large-scale mining operations [2]

Group 1: Overview of Events - The "2025 Investor Reception Day and 2024 Annual Performance Briefing" was held in Qinghai, focusing on enhancing compliance and investor relations among listed companies [1][4] - The event included a training session for directors and senior executives of listed companies, emphasizing compliance and governance [1][5] Group 2: Financial Performance of Listed Companies - In 2024, ten listed companies in Qinghai achieved a total revenue of 103.69 billion yuan and a net profit of 10.49 billion yuan, with total dividends amounting to 2.85 billion yuan [1] - Qinghai Mutual Tianyoude Qinjiao Wine Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 1.26 billion yuan, net profit of 42.17 million yuan, and dividends exceeding 50% of its net profit [2] - Western Mining Co., Ltd. achieved a record revenue of 50.03 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.93 billion yuan in 2024, with a dividend payout of 10 yuan per 10 shares [3] Group 3: Investor Engagement and Training - The event facilitated real-time communication between listed companies and investors, with 516 questions raised and an 80.62% response rate [4] - Training sessions covered regulatory updates and compliance requirements, focusing on asset restructuring and information disclosure [4][5] Group 4: Regulatory and Development Initiatives - The Qinghai Securities Regulatory Bureau emphasized the importance of enhancing management capabilities and protecting investor interests as part of the new "National Nine Articles" [5][6] - Future initiatives will focus on improving asset quality and operational performance through market management and mergers and acquisitions [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards a bullish trend, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆, suggesting a bias towards a bullish trend, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term bullish and bearish trends are in a relatively balanced state, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards a bearish trend, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆, suggesting a bias towards a bearish trend, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards a bearish trend, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆, suggesting a bias towards a bearish trend, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards a bearish trend, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆, suggesting a bias towards a bearish trend, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The copper market is affected by the reduction of production targets at the Congo's KK mine, which will reduce the increase in copper concentrate this year. Short - term bears can hold positions after roll - over [2] - The aluminum market has a strong short - term upward trend, but there are concerns about negative feedback in the off - season. There may be opportunities to buy AD and short AL in the casting aluminum alloy market. Alumina futures are weak and should be shorted on rebounds [3] - The zinc market is under pressure due to geopolitical tensions and a supply - demand imbalance. High - level short positions should be held [4] - The nickel and stainless - steel market is bearish, and short positions should be followed [7] - The tin market is in a situation of tight supply of concentrates and weak supply - demand. Some short positions can be reduced or moved to far - month contracts [8] - The lithium carbonate market is in a short - term shock due to slowed price decline of Australian ore and increased production in the middle - stream [9] - The industrial silicon market has increased supply pressure and weak demand, and short positions can be lightly established [10] - The polysilicon market has increased inventory pressure and is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend [11] Summary by Metal Copper - On Friday, the afternoon session of Shanghai copper futures saw an expanded decline, with the main contract falling to 78,000 yuan. The spot copper price was 7,895 yuan, and the premium in Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed. The G7 meeting over the weekend focused on US - allied tariff news. Ivanhoe lowered the production target of the Congo's KK mine to 37 - 420,000 tons, reducing the increase in copper concentrate by at least 100,000 tons. Short - term bears should hold positions after roll - over [2] Aluminum and Alumina - The squeeze - out market of Shanghai aluminum has intensified, with a large increase in the monthly spread. The strong inventory reduction in the aluminum market supports the near - month contracts, while concerns about seasonal demand decline and pre - export suppress the far - month contracts. After filling the previous gap, Shanghai aluminum has broken through. Attention should be paid to when the off - season negative feedback will be realized. The far - month contracts of casting aluminum alloy remain volatile. The price of Baotai ADC12 has been raised by 100 yuan to 19,600 yuan. The supply of alumina has high elasticity after profit recovery, and the futures market remains weak. The price of Guinea ore is stable at $75, corresponding to a cost of about 3,000 yuan in Shanxi. It's not advisable to chase short positions due to a large futures discount [3] Zinc - Due to geopolitical tensions, the external market has weakened significantly. The spot import loss has narrowed, and low - priced imported ingots have impacted the domestic spot market. Coupled with the domestic supply - demand imbalance, Shanghai zinc has experienced a sharp decline. The weighted position has increased by 22,900 lots to 300,000 lots, and the settled funds have reached 5.833 billion yuan. The average price of SMM 0 zinc has dropped by 70 yuan to 22,240 yuan/ton, with a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. As the delivery approaches, the exchange warehouse receipts have increased to 8,972 tons. High - level short positions should be held [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel has declined slowly, and market trading is dull. The spot premium is stable, with the far - month contracts being stronger. The Philippine Congress has removed the ban on raw ore exports from the final version of the mining fiscal system bill. The loading progress of Philippine nickel mines has been delayed. The price of downstream NPI has stopped falling and stabilized, but domestic NPI smelters are still seriously in deficit. The high - nickel iron is priced at 953 yuan per nickel point, showing some resistance at low levels. Nickel iron inventory has increased, and the surplus is mainly concentrated in the stainless - steel segment. Technically, Shanghai nickel is under pressure, and short positions should be followed [7] Tin - Shanghai tin has fluctuated and declined. The spot tin price is 265,600 yuan, with a premium of 740 yuan to the 2506 contract as the delivery approaches. The supply of tin concentrates is expected to remain tight for a longer time. In the context of weak supply - demand, attention should be paid to the current price and wait for the social inventory data. Some short positions can be reduced or moved to far - month contracts [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate has shown narrow - range fluctuations, and market trading is average. The overall market inventory is stable at a high level. The inventory in the intermediate link has increased, but the downstream restocking and upstream destocking have not been sustained. The price decline of Australian ore has slowed down, and the production in the middle - stream has increased by 7% month - on - month. Technically, the decline of lithium carbonate futures has slowed down, and it is in a short - term shock [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures have declined with reduced positions, closing at 7,345 yuan/ton. The spot price has stabilized. After the resumption of production of large enterprises in Xinjiang, the subsequent production may increase, and the monthly supply pressure has increased. Although the downstream demand has improved marginally, the high - level social inventory pattern is difficult to change. Technically, the bullish sentiment has cooled down, and short positions can be lightly established [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures have declined with increased positions, closing at 33,695 yuan/ton. The spot price has been lowered, with the average price of SMM's N - type re - feed material at 36,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from the previous day. Some polysilicon enterprises have resumed production, and the total production in June has increased to 101,000 tons, while the downstream silicon wafer production has been reduced by about 2GW. The inventory pressure has increased, and the market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend [11]