1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Copper prices fluctuated weakly and plunged in the afternoon, hitting the 100,000 yuan mark before rebounding. There is a growing divergence between domestic and foreign markets in the short - term. The cooling macro - atmosphere, increased profit - taking by funds, and weak industrial reality are pressuring prices. Short - term focus is on the long - short battle at the 100,000 yuan level [6]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices decreased with reduced positions, and the main contract price fell below the 24,000 yuan mark. The cooling macro - atmosphere and weak industrial reality are putting pressure on prices. Technically, aluminum prices face resistance at the 2021 high, leading to strong profit - taking by bulls [7]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices decreased with increased positions, dropping over 10,000 yuan/ton from the previous day's closing price. The cooling macro - atmosphere and large short - term rebound followed by a large correction, along with an oversupplied industrial reality, are pressuring prices. However, news from Indonesia has reversed industry expectations, and subsequent industry dynamics should be continuously monitored [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On January 8th, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 284,700 tons, up 37,600 tons from before the New Year's Day holiday. Spot copper prices dropped over 1,000 yuan/ton, improving point - pricing sentiment, but the actual transaction price of spot premiums continued to fall. SMM's electrolytic copper social inventory has been increasing since December 4, 2025, with a cumulative increase of over 100,000 tons, indicating weak domestic terminal consumption [10]. - **Aluminum**: On January 6, 2026, the aluminum market in Foshan showed a "polarized" situation. The SMM A00 (Foshan) aluminum price jumped 610 yuan/ton to 23,860 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of nearly 1,500 yuan/ton (6.7%) after the New Year's Day holiday. However, the processing fee of φ120 aluminum rods (Guangdong) dropped to - 80 yuan/ton, hitting negative territory for the first time this year. On January 8th, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 718,000 tons, with a pre - holiday inventory increase of 80,000 tons [11][12]. - **Nickel**: On January 8th, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources held a press conference. The Minister did not disclose the specific amount for the 2026 RKAB approval of Indonesian nickel mines, stating that it is still being calculated and will be adjusted according to the total demand of smelting enterprises in 2026 [13]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), SHFE warrant inventory, copper monthly spread, and SHFE inventory and inventory warrants [14][16][17]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, Shanghai - London ratio, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and aluminum rod inventory [25][27][29]. - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [37][39][41].

期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 24 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色普涨，铜铝尾盘拉升明显 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜主力期价在 9.5 万一线震荡运行，尾盘增仓上行明显， 站上9.6万关口。宏观层面，12月美日央行决议落地，流动性回升， 美元指数持续走弱，利好有色。产业层面，下游观望氛围较浓。SMM 报道，早市现货市场买盘极弱，叠加年末回款及资金压力等因素， 持货方早市大量甩货，主流平水铜对沪铜 2601 合约升贴水降至贴水 300 元/吨以下，自 2024 年 5 月下旬以来首次降至 ...

Report Information - Report Date: November 4, 2025 [4] - Report Type: Daily Report on Non-ferrous Metals [4] - Report Industry: Non-ferrous Metals [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - **Copper**: Today, copper prices decreased with a reduction in positions, showing an accelerated downward trend in the afternoon. The domestic macro environment weakened, leading to declines in both commodities and the stock market. At the industrial level, as copper prices dropped significantly, the downstream replenishment willingness may increase. Technically, copper prices fell below the 10-day moving average, indicating strong downward momentum [6]. - **Aluminum**: Today, aluminum prices decreased with a reduction in positions, but rebounded significantly at the end of the session. The domestic macro environment weakened, causing declines in commodities and the stock market. The rebound at the end of the session recovered the afternoon losses, demonstrating its resistance to decline. At the industrial level, electrolytic aluminum showed a slight inventory build-up on Monday. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 5-day moving average [7]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel prices decreased with an increase in positions, and the main contract price fell below the 120,000 yuan mark. The domestic macro environment weakened, resulting in declines in commodities and the stock market. The weakness at the industrial level made funds more inclined to short nickel to hedge long positions in non-ferrous metals. Technically, attention should be paid to the long-short game at the 120,000 yuan mark [8]. Summary by Catalog 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: Glencore plans to gradually shut down its Horne smelter in Quebec, Canada, due to high environmental upgrade and operating costs. Glencore operates the Horne smelter (with a rough smelting capacity of 200,000 tons) and the CCR copper refinery in Quebec. The Horne smelter processes copper concentrate into copper anodes, which are then further processed into copper cathodes by the CCR refinery. On November 3, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 203,000 tons, an increase of 13,800 tons from last Thursday [10]. - **Nickel**: On November 4, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,300 - 123,300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,500 - 2,700 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount quotation range for domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was -200 - 300 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][13][14] - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts on aluminum monthly spread, average price of aluminum premium/discount in the Yangtze River spot market, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [25][26][30] - **Nickel**: The report includes charts on nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][40]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Today, Shanghai copper opened higher in the morning and maintained a strong intraday oscillation, with the open interest rising continuously. After the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee last week, the macro - atmosphere improved significantly. A preliminary consensus was reached in the Sino - US trade talks over the weekend. Against the backdrop of supply contraction in the industry and continuous improvement in both domestic and overseas macro - environments, copper prices continued to rise with increasing positions. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the 2024 high of LME copper [6]. - Today, Shanghai aluminum opened higher in the morning and then retraced, and oscillated upwards during the day, with the open interest rising continuously. After the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee last week and a preliminary consensus in the Sino - US trade talks over the weekend, the domestic macro - environment continued to improve. The decline in domestic electrolytic aluminum and downstream aluminum rod inventories provided industrial support for aluminum prices. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the November 2024 high [7]. - Today, Shanghai nickel oscillated, and the open interest decreased. Although the domestic and overseas macro - environments improved, nickel prices performed significantly weaker than the non - ferrous metal sector, mainly due to persistent industrial pressure and weak rebound momentum. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the low - level technical support [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: As of October 27, the copper inventory in the mainstream regions of China monitored by SMM increased by 0.29 million tons week - on - week to 18.45 million tons. The core reason for the inventory build - up this week was the simultaneous arrival of imported and domestic supplies, combined with weak outbound shipments. Looking ahead, SMM expects a concentrated arrival of imported supplies, and the demand side will be suppressed by the rising copper prices, so the weekly copper inventory is expected to increase [10]. - **Nickel**: On October 27, Mysteel reported that the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2511 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2550 yuan/ton, with a price of 124400 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +650 yuan/ton, with a price of 122500 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +2450 yuan/ton, with a price of 124300 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was +2550 yuan/ton, with a price of 124400 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc [12][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum premium, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), aluminum rod inventory, etc [26][27][29]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel price trend, SHFE nickel inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc [37][39][40].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: Today, Shanghai copper showed a significant increase in positions and prices, especially in the afternoon, with a gain of over 1,000 yuan/ton, approaching the post - holiday high of 88,000 yuan. After the Fourth Plenary Session in China, the macro - environment has clearly improved. Against the background of supply contraction in the industry and continuous improvement in domestic and international macro - environments, copper prices continue to rise with increasing positions. Attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the previous high [6]. - **沪铝**: Today, Shanghai aluminum first declined and then rebounded. The afternoon rebound was largely affected by the improved macro - environment. The inventories of domestic electrolytic aluminum and downstream aluminum rods have decreased, providing industrial support for aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices have broken through the 21,000 - yuan mark with increasing positions. Continuous attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [7]. - **沪镍**: Today, Shanghai nickel first declined and then rebounded, standing above the 122,000 - yuan mark at the close. The afternoon rebound was largely affected by the improved macro - environment. Nickel prices are at a low level since September, but there is still industrial pressure, and the rebound of nickel prices is weak. Continuous attention should be paid to the low - level technical support [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: From the perspective of downstream industries of copper cable enterprises, the State Grid has released scattered orders, with limited scale and mainly for rigid demand; new orders for automobile wiring harnesses are suppressed by high copper prices. In terms of inventory, due to insufficient orders, enterprises only maintain rigid - demand procurement, and the raw material inventory ratio has decreased by 1.78 percentage points; enterprises have slowed down production and adopted a production - on - sales model, and the finished - product inventory ratio has decreased by 2.84 percentage points [10]. - **Nickel**: On October 24, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,400 - 124,400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,900 yuan/ton, a rise of 750 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,500 - 2,600 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,550 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 200 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts of copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc. [12][13][14] - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts of aluminum average price premium and discount, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, aluminum rod inventory, etc. [26][27][31] - **Nickel**: The report includes charts of nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc. [37][39][40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Today, the copper price increased with rising positions, and the main contract price closed above the 86,000 mark. The market sentiment warmed up in the afternoon, with both commodities and stock indices rising. In the short term, the copper price broke through the 86,000 mark with increasing positions and has strong upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [4]. - Today, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly, and the open interest continued to rise. The market sentiment warmed up in the afternoon, with both commodities and stock indices rising. In the short term, the aluminum price broke through the 21,000 mark with increasing positions. Continuous attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [5]. - Today, the nickel price fluctuated and rose slightly at the end of the session, with the open interest rising accordingly. The market sentiment warmed up in the afternoon, with both commodities and stock indices rising. The nickel price is at a low level since September, but the industrial pressure remains, and the rebound of the nickel price is weak. Continuous attention should be paid to the low - level technical support [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: According to SMM, the current high copper price makes it difficult for end - customers to bear the cost pressure caused by the sharp rise in raw material prices. They prefer to consume their own inventories, resulting in a significant reduction in orders. This weak demand situation has been transmitted to the enameled wire sector, leading to insufficient orders in the industry recently and the continuous low operating rate of enterprises [8]. - **Nickel**: On October 23, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,800 - 123,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,150 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,500 - 2,600 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,550 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 200 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper注销仓单比例, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [10][11][12]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and aluminum rod inventory [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and注销仓单比例, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper price increased with higher trading volume last night, and the main contract price broke through the high point in March this year, followed by intraday volatile adjustment. Since Freeport announced a copper mine production cut on September 24th, the copper price has shown a significant increase with higher trading volume, attracting rapid attention from capital and showing strong upward momentum. As China is about to enter the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, attention should be paid to overseas market volatility risks [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price fluctuated downward today, with a continuous decline in open interest. Last week, affected by the sharp rise in copper prices, the aluminum price stabilized and rebounded, but the overall rebound was weak. Before the domestic holiday, there were signs of inventory reduction in electrolytic aluminum, providing support for the aluminum price. With a loose macro - environment and a marginal improvement in the supply - demand balance during the peak industrial season, there was an obvious outflow of funds before the holiday. Attention should be paid to the industrial demand situation after the holiday [5]. - **Nickel**: The Shanghai nickel price fluctuated downward today, with a slight decline in open interest. The sector - wide effect of the non - ferrous metals sector driven by copper prices has faded, and the nickel price has dropped back to the level at the beginning of last week. At the industrial level, the long - term oversupply of nickel elements continues to suppress the nickel price. In the short term, the slowdown in the accumulation of nickel ore at ports and the reduction of nickel inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange provide support for the nickel price. Continuous attention should be paid to the technical support at the 121,000 yuan mark [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: In September, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued improvement in the manufacturing industry's prosperity level. On September 30th, SMM reported that as the National Day holiday approached, the downstream procurement sentiment of refined copper rod enterprises was weak. The high copper price and the short price - fixing period for downstream customers near the contract roll - over jointly suppressed new orders [8]. - **Nickel**: On September 30th, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 121,000 - 123,900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,450 yuan/ton, a rise of 450 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,300 - 2,400 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,350 yuan/ton, a rise of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range for domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 150 - 100 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant inventory [9][11][12][14][17][18]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts on aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum bar inventory [21][23][25][27][29][31]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts on nickel basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel price trend, nickel monthly spread, and nickel ore port inventory [33][37][40][42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Today, the main contract price of Shanghai copper fluctuated narrowly around 78,500 yuan. This week, the market digested news about the Middle - East situation, risk appetite rebounded, and the gold price continued to fall. On the industrial level, on June 16th, the weekly inventory of electrolytic copper in social warehouses slightly decreased, and the spread between July and August contracts rebounded. With a warming macro - atmosphere and strong industrial support, the copper price may continue to rise [5]. - **Aluminum**: Today, the aluminum price increased in volume and open interest, and the main contract price approached the 20,500 - yuan mark. This week, the market digested news about the Middle - East situation, and risk appetite rebounded. On the industrial level, domestic demand was good, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to decline. As the futures price rises, downstream demand may be affected, and the spread between July and August contracts has declined. It is expected that the futures price will remain strong, and attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, the nickel price decreased in volume and open interest, breaking below the 119,000 - yuan mark. Since last week, nickel has shown weakness in the non - ferrous metals sector, mainly due to its industrial weakness and news - related impacts. Since last Wednesday, the market has expected that the Philippines may cancel the ban on ore export policies, and the support previously provided to the futures price by the strong nickel ore market has weakened. Technically, this week, the futures price broke below the 120,000 - yuan mark, with strong downward momentum [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Aluminum**: On June 16th, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in May 2025, the added value of the non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 8.1% year - on - year, and the cumulative added value from January to May increased by 7.1% year - on - year. The output of ten non - ferrous metals in May was 6.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%; the cumulative output from January to May was 33.4 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.8%. Among them, the output of electrolytic aluminum in May was 3.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%; the output of electrolytic aluminum from January to May was 18.59 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.0% [9]. - **Nickel**: On June 17th, the main reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2507 contract. The mainstream premium for Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,500 yuan/ton, with a price of 120,990 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium for Russian nickel was +600 yuan/ton, with a price of 119,090 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium for Norwegian nickel was +2,750 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,240 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium for nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 117,590 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social warehouses + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE copper warrant inventory [11][13][14] - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), alumina trend, and alumina inventory [23][25][27] - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME nickel inventory, LME nickel price trend, SHFE nickel inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [34][36][38]

Group 1: Core Views Copper - The copper price is expected to be strong, with attention on the long - short battle at the May high [4] - The overnight call between Chinese and US leaders is expected to ease Sino - US relations, which is positive for copper prices [4] - The marginal increase in the social inventory of electrolytic copper drags down the copper price [4] Aluminum - The aluminum price is expected to stabilize and fluctuate above 20,000, with narrowing amplitude, and pay attention to inter - monthly arbitrage opportunities [5] - The overnight call between Chinese and US leaders is expected to ease Sino - US relations, which is positive for aluminum prices [5] - High profits of upstream electrolytic aluminum plants bring hedging pressure, while strong downstream demand supports the price [5] Nickel - The nickel price is expected to rebound, with attention on the long - short battle at the 122,000 mark [6] - Strong short - term supply from Philippine mines supports the price, while weak downstream demand for stainless steel exerts pressure [6] Group 2: Industry Dynamics Copper - The expected copper rod开工率 in June will drop to 47.11%, with a month - on - month decline of 3.51 percentage points [8] - On June 5, Mysteel's electrolytic copper spot inventory was 157,500 tons, an increase of 18,200 tons compared to the 29th and 2,100 tons compared to the 3rd [8] Aluminum - On June 6, the total inventory of bauxite at 9 domestic ports was 21.2 million tons, a decrease of 360,000 tons compared to the previous week [9] - On June 5, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 508,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons compared to the 29th and 18,000 tons compared to the 3rd [9] Nickel - On June 6, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the Shanghai Nickel 2507 contract [10] - The mainstream premium for Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was + 2,400 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,390 yuan/ton [10] - The mainstream premium for Russian nickel was + 700 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,690 yuan/ton [10] Group 3: Related Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][16][23] Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [24][26][28] Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][46]

Group 1: Copper Market - LME copper prices increased by 0.24% to $9,638.5 per ton, while SHFE copper rose by 0.5% to ¥78,180 per ton, with the domestic import window closed [1] - LME copper inventory decreased by 4,600 tons to 143,850 tons, while domestic mainstream copper inventory increased by 14,300 tons compared to the pre-holiday period [1] - The current copper price is facing a directional choice, with resistance observed in the ¥78,000 - ¥80,000 per ton range [1] Group 2: Nickel Market - LME nickel prices fell by 0.23% to $15,475 per ton, while SHFE nickel rose by 0.25% to ¥121,860 per ton [1] - LME nickel inventory increased by 1,152 tons to 201,462 tons, while domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 19 tons to 22,038 tons [1] - Nickel prices may experience short-term recovery but are expected to remain volatile due to weak demand [1] Group 3: Aluminum and Alumina Market - On the first trading day after the holiday, alumina prices showed a slight increase, with AO2509 closing at ¥3,036 per ton, up 1.27% [1] - SHFE aluminum also showed a slight increase, with AL2507 closing at ¥19,990 per ton, up 0.25% [1] - The supply and demand for alumina are both increasing, with support from the mining sector, while the demand for electrolytic aluminum remains under pressure [1] Group 4: Silicon Market - On the first trading day after the holiday, polysilicon prices showed a downward trend, with the main contract 2507 closing at ¥34,360 per ton, down 2.65% [1] - Industrial silicon prices also declined, with the main contract 2507 closing at ¥7,070 per ton, down 1.39% [1] - The reduction in electricity prices during the southwest flood season is leading to production resumption, while downstream procurement is decreasing [1] Group 5: Lithium Market - Carbonate lithium futures for contract 2507 increased by 0.33% to ¥59,940 per ton, while spot prices decreased and warehouse receipts fell by 60 tons [1] - Lithium ore prices are declining with increased supply, while demand from the positive electrode production is average but terminal sales are strong [1] - The fundamentals appear bearish, but price volatility is heightened due to capital market dynamics [1]