1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Today, the main contract price of Shanghai copper fluctuated narrowly around 78,500 yuan. This week, the market digested news about the Middle - East situation, risk appetite rebounded, and the gold price continued to fall. On the industrial level, on June 16th, the weekly inventory of electrolytic copper in social warehouses slightly decreased, and the spread between July and August contracts rebounded. With a warming macro - atmosphere and strong industrial support, the copper price may continue to rise [5]. - **Aluminum**: Today, the aluminum price increased in volume and open interest, and the main contract price approached the 20,500 - yuan mark. This week, the market digested news about the Middle - East situation, and risk appetite rebounded. On the industrial level, domestic demand was good, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to decline. As the futures price rises, downstream demand may be affected, and the spread between July and August contracts has declined. It is expected that the futures price will remain strong, and attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, the nickel price decreased in volume and open interest, breaking below the 119,000 - yuan mark. Since last week, nickel has shown weakness in the non - ferrous metals sector, mainly due to its industrial weakness and news - related impacts. Since last Wednesday, the market has expected that the Philippines may cancel the ban on ore export policies, and the support previously provided to the futures price by the strong nickel ore market has weakened. Technically, this week, the futures price broke below the 120,000 - yuan mark, with strong downward momentum [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Aluminum**: On June 16th, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in May 2025, the added value of the non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 8.1% year - on - year, and the cumulative added value from January to May increased by 7.1% year - on - year. The output of ten non - ferrous metals in May was 6.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%; the cumulative output from January to May was 33.4 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.8%. Among them, the output of electrolytic aluminum in May was 3.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%; the output of electrolytic aluminum from January to May was 18.59 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.0% [9]. - **Nickel**: On June 17th, the main reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2507 contract. The mainstream premium for Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,500 yuan/ton, with a price of 120,990 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium for Russian nickel was +600 yuan/ton, with a price of 119,090 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium for Norwegian nickel was +2,750 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,240 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium for nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 117,590 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social warehouses + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE copper warrant inventory [11][13][14] - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), alumina trend, and alumina inventory [23][25][27] - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME nickel inventory, LME nickel price trend, SHFE nickel inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [34][36][38]

Group 1: Core Views Copper - The copper price is expected to be strong, with attention on the long - short battle at the May high [4] - The overnight call between Chinese and US leaders is expected to ease Sino - US relations, which is positive for copper prices [4] - The marginal increase in the social inventory of electrolytic copper drags down the copper price [4] Aluminum - The aluminum price is expected to stabilize and fluctuate above 20,000, with narrowing amplitude, and pay attention to inter - monthly arbitrage opportunities [5] - The overnight call between Chinese and US leaders is expected to ease Sino - US relations, which is positive for aluminum prices [5] - High profits of upstream electrolytic aluminum plants bring hedging pressure, while strong downstream demand supports the price [5] Nickel - The nickel price is expected to rebound, with attention on the long - short battle at the 122,000 mark [6] - Strong short - term supply from Philippine mines supports the price, while weak downstream demand for stainless steel exerts pressure [6] Group 2: Industry Dynamics Copper - The expected copper rod开工率 in June will drop to 47.11%, with a month - on - month decline of 3.51 percentage points [8] - On June 5, Mysteel's electrolytic copper spot inventory was 157,500 tons, an increase of 18,200 tons compared to the 29th and 2,100 tons compared to the 3rd [8] Aluminum - On June 6, the total inventory of bauxite at 9 domestic ports was 21.2 million tons, a decrease of 360,000 tons compared to the previous week [9] - On June 5, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 508,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons compared to the 29th and 18,000 tons compared to the 3rd [9] Nickel - On June 6, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the Shanghai Nickel 2507 contract [10] - The mainstream premium for Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was + 2,400 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,390 yuan/ton [10] - The mainstream premium for Russian nickel was + 700 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,690 yuan/ton [10] Group 3: Related Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][16][23] Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [24][26][28] Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][46]

Group 1: Copper Market - LME copper prices increased by 0.24% to $9,638.5 per ton, while SHFE copper rose by 0.5% to ¥78,180 per ton, with the domestic import window closed [1] - LME copper inventory decreased by 4,600 tons to 143,850 tons, while domestic mainstream copper inventory increased by 14,300 tons compared to the pre-holiday period [1] - The current copper price is facing a directional choice, with resistance observed in the ¥78,000 - ¥80,000 per ton range [1] Group 2: Nickel Market - LME nickel prices fell by 0.23% to $15,475 per ton, while SHFE nickel rose by 0.25% to ¥121,860 per ton [1] - LME nickel inventory increased by 1,152 tons to 201,462 tons, while domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 19 tons to 22,038 tons [1] - Nickel prices may experience short-term recovery but are expected to remain volatile due to weak demand [1] Group 3: Aluminum and Alumina Market - On the first trading day after the holiday, alumina prices showed a slight increase, with AO2509 closing at ¥3,036 per ton, up 1.27% [1] - SHFE aluminum also showed a slight increase, with AL2507 closing at ¥19,990 per ton, up 0.25% [1] - The supply and demand for alumina are both increasing, with support from the mining sector, while the demand for electrolytic aluminum remains under pressure [1] Group 4: Silicon Market - On the first trading day after the holiday, polysilicon prices showed a downward trend, with the main contract 2507 closing at ¥34,360 per ton, down 2.65% [1] - Industrial silicon prices also declined, with the main contract 2507 closing at ¥7,070 per ton, down 1.39% [1] - The reduction in electricity prices during the southwest flood season is leading to production resumption, while downstream procurement is decreasing [1] Group 5: Lithium Market - Carbonate lithium futures for contract 2507 increased by 0.33% to ¥59,940 per ton, while spot prices decreased and warehouse receipts fell by 60 tons [1] - Lithium ore prices are declining with increased supply, while demand from the positive electrode production is average but terminal sales are strong [1] - The fundamentals appear bearish, but price volatility is heightened due to capital market dynamics [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The copper price opened higher in the morning and showed an overall trend of increasing positions and rising prices during the day, with the main contract price breaking through the 78,000 mark. Favorable factors include a good market atmosphere, a decline in the US dollar index, and a slight decrease in social inventories. It is expected to maintain a strong performance in the short - term, and investors can consider selling out - of - the - money put options [5]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price opened higher in the morning and maintained a strong performance during the day. The position increased slightly, and the main contract price broke through the 20,200 mark. Benefiting from good downstream demand, social inventories of electrolytic aluminum continued to decline at a low level. It is expected to maintain a strong performance in the short - term, and investors can consider selling out - of - the - money put options [6]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price rebounded after hitting the bottom last night. The main contract price once fell below the 119,000 mark, but then continued to rise with decreasing positions during the day, indicating a strong willingness of short - sellers to close their positions. It is expected that the price will continue to rebound [7]. 3. Section Summaries Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On May 29, ICSG reported that the global refined copper market had a surplus of 17,000 tons in March 2025, down from 180,000 tons in February. The production was 2.43 million tons and consumption was 2.41 million tons. From January to March 2025, the global copper market had a surplus of 289,000 tons, compared with 268,000 tons in the same period last year. After adjustment, the surplus in March was 38,000 tons. Also, Chile raised its copper price forecasts for 2025 and 2026, expecting an average price of $4.30 per pound this year [9]. - **Nickel**: On May 29, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE Ni2507 contract. The prices of different types of nickel with their respective premiums were provided, such as Jinchuan electrolytic nickel at 122,910 yuan/ton with a premium of +2,600 yuan/ton [10]. Related Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: Charts cover aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: Charts involve nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][37][39].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The main copper futures price fluctuated narrowly below 78,000 today. After the peak season, the short - term social inventory of electrolytic copper started to accumulate, putting pressure on copper prices. It may also be due to the decline in market demand expectations. However, the domestic social inventory is still at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, and with domestic macro - stimulus, the consumption expectation is good. Additionally, the low processing fees of upstream smelters continue, and the supply is expected to decline. Overall, the futures price has strong fundamental support and is expected to fluctuate [5]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices increased in volume and maintained a strong upward trend. At the industrial level, recent disturbances in the alumina ore end led to the rise of futures prices, providing some support for aluminum prices. The social inventory of aluminum ingots is normalizing and is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, and the downstream aluminum rod inventory is also low. The futures price is expected to remain strong, and attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices rebounded to 124,000 last night and weakened during the day. The nickel price center has been continuously moving down, and the amplitude has narrowed. Currently, the nickel industry is neutral in the short - term and bearish in the long - term. The futures price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the technical support at 123,000 [7]. 3. Industry Dynamics Copper - On May 22, the social inventory of electrolytic copper was 143,700 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons compared to May 19 and 8,000 tons compared to May 15 [9]. - The Kakula underground mine in the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo suspended mining operations on May 18 due to multiple mine tremors in the eastern area of the Kakula mine last week [9]. Aluminum - On May 22, the electrolytic aluminum inventory was 557,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared to May 19 and 31,000 tons compared to May 15 [10]. - In April 2025, the global primary aluminum production was 6.033 million tons, compared with 5.901 million tons in the same period last year, and the revised value of the previous month was 6.237 million tons. The primary aluminum production in China in April is estimated to be 3.621 million tons, and the revised value of the previous month was 3.742 million tons [10]. Nickel - On May 22, for the refined nickel Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract, the Jinchuan electrolytic nickel had a mainstream premium of +2,150 yuan/ton at a price of 125,500 yuan/ton; Russian nickel had a mainstream premium of +300 yuan/ton at a price of 123,650 yuan/ton; Norwegian nickel had a mainstream premium of +2,600 yuan/ton at a price of 125,950 yuan/ton; and nickel beans had a mainstream premium of - 900 yuan/ton at a price of 122,450 yuan/ton [11]. 4. Relevant Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancellation warrant ratio, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [12][14][15] Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [24][25][27] Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][40]