Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The new cotton cost is fixed, which supports the cotton price, but the upside is pressured by supply. It is expected that the cotton price will mainly fluctuate. The downstream demand has not fully started, orders are less than expected, and the market lacks confidence in future demand. Cotton textile enterprises mostly adopt a wait - and - see attitude and replenish inventory based on rigid demand. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 13,605 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price is 19,870 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan. - Cotton futures' top 20 net positions are - 113,512 lots, a decrease of 4,096 lots; cotton yarn futures' top 20 net positions are - 155 lots, an increase of 5 lots. - The main contract positions of cotton are 579,138 lots, a decrease of 1,553 lots; the main contract positions of cotton yarn are 25,040 lots, an increase of 19 lots. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts is 2,769 sheets, an increase of 17 sheets; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts is 6 sheets, unchanged. [2] Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 14,820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,196 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 21,221 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - scale tariff) is 14,096 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 22,655 yuan/ton, an increase of 76 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 540,000 tons. [2] Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 861,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons. - The monthly import volume of cotton is 100,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 130,000 tons, unchanged. - The daily import cotton profit is 729 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 1.0217 million tons, a decrease of 460,000 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 25.24 days, an increase of 0.39 days; the坯布 inventory days are 31.43 days, an increase of 0.31 days. - The monthly cloth output is 2.811 billion meters, an increase of 110 million meters; the monthly yarn output is 2.0738 million tons, an increase of 45,900 tons. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1245.3247 million US dollars, a decrease of 169.2657 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1196.6516 million US dollars, a decrease of 42.6686 million US dollars. [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 8.61%, an increase of 3.05%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 8.62%, an increase of 3.12%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 5.68%, a decrease of 1.1%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.87%, an increase of 0.1%. [2] Industry News - As of 24:00 on November 3, 2025, the cumulative notarized inspection of cotton processed by national cotton processing enterprises in the 2025/26 season is 8,812,496 bales, totaling 1.990242 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 42.83%. The cumulative notarized inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton is 1.955048 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 44.01%. - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures were stable on Wednesday. Investors focused on the supply - demand report to be released next week. The ICE December cotton futures contract rose 0.03 cents, or 0.10%, to settle at 65.23 cents per pound. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic cotton market has low commercial inventory, but the new - year harvest is significant, increasing supply pressure. The demand side shows no obvious improvement in textile factory orders, with the operating rate lower than the same period last year, and the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season did not occur. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to post - holiday restocking and the listing rhythm [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closed at 13,265 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closed at 19,290 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 66,624 lots, up 551 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures was - 560 lots, down 214 lots. - The position volume of the main cotton contract was 567,989 lots, up 4,581 lots; the position volume of the main cotton yarn contract was 16,412 lots, up 2,780 lots. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 2,823, down 44; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged [2] Spot Market - China's imported cotton price index (1% tariff) was 14,755 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the landed price of imported cotton yarn (pure - combed 32 - count) was 20,440 yuan/ton, unchanged. - China's imported cotton price index (sliding - scale duty) was 13,866 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the landed price of imported cotton yarn (pure - combed 32 - count) was 22,524 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, up 0.54 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,685 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton was 870,000 tons, up 13,000 tons. - The monthly import volume of cotton was 70,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 130,000 tons, up 20,000 tons. - The profit of imported cotton was 903 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national commercial inventory of cotton was 1.4817 million tons, down 708,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days were 26.58 days, down 0.65 days; the inventory days of grey cloth were 33.87 days, down 1.31 days. - The monthly output of cloth was 2.701 billion meters, up 0.01 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn was 2.0279 million tons, up 36,400 tons. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 14,145,904,000 US dollars, down 1,015,855,000 US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 12,393,202,000 US dollars, up 789,193,000 US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton was 9.72%, up 0.95%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton was 9.71%, up 0.98%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 7.29%, down 0.03%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 7.76%, unchanged [2] Industry News - In September 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 24.4197 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.50% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.99%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative textile and clothing exports were 221.6863 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. - The ICE cotton futures closed down on Monday due to lingering demand concerns caused by trade tensions [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term bearish approach for cotton prices [2] Core Viewpoints - The new cotton season shows a significant increase in production, with the expected total cotton output in 2025 reaching 721.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3% and an upward adjustment of 32.1 million tons from the previous period, hitting a new high since 2013. With only a small amount of new cotton on the market and the lack of a peak season in the downstream, the short - term support for cotton prices has weakened [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 13,530 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price is 19,780 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures is - 23,381 lots, an increase of 1,105 lots; for cotton yarn futures, it is 87 lots, an increase of 134 lots. The main contract positions for cotton are 525,141 lots, down 3,151 lots; for cotton yarn, it is 9,561 lots, down 2,220 lots. The cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 3,583 sheets, down 133 sheets; the cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity is 0 sheets, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,083 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,336 yuan/ton, up 69 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding duty) is 14,181 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan. The China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,615 yuan/ton, unchanged; the arrival price of imported pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 21,464 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; for imported pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn, it is 22,652 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 616 million tons, an increase of 54 million tons. The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,532 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 87 million tons, an increase of 1.3 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton is 7 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 130,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons. The daily import cotton profit is 881 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 148.17 million tons, down 70.81 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 26.58 days, down 0.65 days; the grey fabric inventory days are 33.87 days, down 1.31 days. The monthly cloth output is 2.701 billion meters, an increase of 0.01 billion meters; the monthly yarn output is 202.79 million tons, an increase of 3.64 million tons. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1,414,590.4 million US dollars, down 101,585.5 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1,239,320.2 million US dollars, up 78,919.3 million US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 8.95%, down 1.49%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 8.95%, down 1.49%. The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 9.29%, up 0.26%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.17%, down 0.01% [2] Industry News - As of September 18, the operating load of mainstream textile enterprises is 66.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.15%, but the recovery of the operating rate has slowed down. Although it is the peak season, the downstream orders have limited growth. Most inland textile enterprises maintain a balance between procurement and sales, with an operating rate of 50% - 60% in inland areas and about 90% in Xinjiang. ICE cotton futures closed down on Wednesday, pressured by the strengthening US dollar [2] Viewpoint Summary - The 2025 national cotton is expected to have a total output of 721.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, hitting a new high since 2013. With a small amount of new cotton on the market and the lack of a peak season in the downstream, the short - term support for cotton prices has weakened [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term bearish approach for cotton prices [2] 2. Core View of the Report - With a small amount of new cotton on the market, a significant increase in production in the new season, and the lack of a peak season in the downstream market, the short - term support for cotton prices has weakened. Therefore, short - term operations are recommended to be bearish [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 13,555, up 15; cotton futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 24,486, down 5,549; main contract open interest for cotton (daily, lots): 528,292, down 4,509; cotton warehouse receipt quantity (daily, sheets): 3,716, down 199 - Cotton yarn main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 19,860, up 200; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 47, up 121; main contract open interest for cotton yarn (daily, lots): 11,781, down 2,500; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity (daily, sheets): 0, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index: CCIndex: 3128B (daily, yuan/ton): 15,062, down 71; China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: 1% tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 13,336, up 69; China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: sliding - scale duty (daily, yuan/ton): 14,181, up 34 - China Yarn Price Index: pure - cotton carded yarn 32s (daily, yuan/ton): 20,615, unchanged; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index: pure - cotton carded yarn 32s (daily, yuan/ton): 21,442, up 10; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index: pure - cotton combed yarn 32s (daily, yuan/ton): 22,628, up 10 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sown area (annual, thousand hectares): 2,838.3, up 48.3; national cotton output (annual, million tons): 616, up 54 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B, yuan/ton): 5,553, up 71; industrial inventory of cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 87, up 1.3 - Cotton import quantity: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 7, up 2; cotton yarn import quantity: monthly value (monthly, tons): 130,000, up 20,000 - Imported cotton profit (daily, yuan/ton): 986, down 86; commercial inventory of cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 148.17, down 70.81 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days (monthly, days): 26.58, down 0.65; inventory days of grey cloth (monthly, days): 33.87, down 1.31 - Cloth production: monthly value (monthly, billion meters): 27.01, up 0.01; yarn production: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 202.79, up 3.64 - Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value (monthly, million US dollars): 1,414,590.4, down 101,585.5; monthly textile yarn, fabric and product export value (monthly, million US dollars): 1,239,320.2, up 78,919.3 [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton (%): 10.44, down 1.04; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton (%): 10.44, down 1.03 - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 9.03, up 0.09; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 7.18, up 0.17 [2] 3.7 Industry News - According to Mysteel research, the national commercial inventory of cotton is decreasing. As of September 19, 2025, the total commercial inventory of cotton was 1.1426 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1292 million tons (a decrease of 10.16%). Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 0.5646 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0852 million tons (a decrease of 13.11%); the commercial cotton in the inland area was 0.292 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0395 million tons (a decrease of 11.92%) - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures rose on Tuesday, ending a four - day losing streak, driven by strong demand. The ICE December cotton futures contract rose 0.42 cents, or 0.50%, to settle at 66.64 cents per pound [2] 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - In August 2025, the China Cotton Association's cotton grower branch surveyed the cotton growth situation and the second - estimated output of 1,930 fixed - point farmers in 10 provincial - level regions and the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. The survey shows that the national estimated total cotton output in 2025 is 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, an upward adjustment of 0.321 million tons from the previous period, reaching a new high since 2013 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term bearish approach for cotton investment [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - New cotton has started to be available in small quantities, with a significant increase in production in the new season. Given the lack of a peak season in the downstream market, the short - term support for cotton prices has weakened [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closed at 13,610 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closed at 19,675 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2] - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 20,395 lots, down 804 lots; for cotton yarn futures, it was - 467 lots, up 10 lots [2] - The position volume of the main cotton contract was 522,277 lots, up 13,028 lots; for cotton yarn, it was 16,034 lots, down 1,410 lots [2] - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 4,096, down 136; for cotton yarn, it was 0, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,224 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 20,705 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 13,284 yuan/ton, down 104 yuan; the FCIndexM with sliding - scale duty was 14,152 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan [2] - The arrival price of imported pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 21,433 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; for pure - cotton combed 32 - count yarn, it was 22,703 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6160 thousand tons, an increase of 540 thousand tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,481 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton was 870 thousand tons, up 13 thousand tons [2] - The monthly import volume of cotton was 50 thousand tons, up 20 thousand tons; for cotton yarn, it was 110 thousand tons, unchanged [2] - The profit from importing cotton was 1,059 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton was 1481.7 thousand tons, down 708.1 thousand tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days were 26.58 days, down 0.65 days; the坯布 inventory days were 33.87 days, down 1.31 days [2] - The monthly cloth output was 2.701 billion meters, up 0.01 billion meters; the monthly yarn output was 2027.9 thousand tons, up 36.4 thousand tons [2] - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1414.59 million US dollars, down 101.5855 million US dollars; for textile yarns, fabrics and products, it was 1239.32 million US dollars, up 78.9193 million US dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton was 11.83%, up 0.37%; for at - the - money put options, it was 11.8%, up 0.35% [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 9.14%, down 1.19%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 6.96%, down 0.25% [2] 3.7 Industry News - In August 2025, the China Cotton Association's cotton farmers' branch surveyed 1,930 fixed - point farmers in 10 provinces and the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. The national cotton sown area was 44.823 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% [2] - As of the week ending September 16, about 41% of US cotton - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 32% the previous week [2] - From September 5 - 11, 2025, the net export signing volume of US 2025/26 upland cotton was 42.2 thousand tons, a 44% increase from the previous week and a 13% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. China signed to import 998 tons [2] - The shipment volume of US 2025/26 upland cotton was 27.3 thousand tons, an 8% decrease from the previous week and an 8% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks [2] - The survey showed that the national cotton output in 2025 was expected to be 7216 thousand tons, an 8.3% year - on - year increase, 321 thousand tons higher than the previous forecast, reaching a new high since 2013 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. [1][2] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall trend of cotton is expected to be slightly bullish with oscillations. The market is supported by the de - stocking of cotton and the high risk of heat damage in some Xinjiang regions, but is dragged by the off - season consumption in the downstream. Attention should be paid to weather and macro factors. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 13,875 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 20,120 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 17,706 lots, down 2,643 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are 105 lots, up 76 lots. - Cotton main contract position is 557,732 lots, up 2,175 lots; cotton yarn main contract position is 22,210 lots, down 395 lots. - Cotton warehouse receipts are 9,807 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 98 sheets. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex: 3128B) is 15,295 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 20,520 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: 1% tariff) is 13,597 yuan/ton; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty) is 14,353 yuan/ton. - The arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 22,095 yuan/ton, up 81 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 23,887 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons. - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,225 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 850,000 tons, up 24,000 tons. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton is 40,000 tons, down 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 100,000 tons, down 20,000 tons. - The daily profit of imported cotton is 913 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 3.4587 million tons, down 0.6939 million tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 23.86 days, up 1.52 days; the grey fabric inventory days are 35.46 days, up 2.57 days. - The monthly cloth output is 2.67 billion meters, down 0.05 billion meters; the monthly yarn output is 1.951 million tons, down 36,000 tons. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1.3577737 billion US dollars, an increase of 0.1971179 billion US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1.2631773 billion US dollars, an increase of 0.0052109 billion US dollars. [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 8.25%, up 0.8%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 8.24%, up 0.79%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 4.97%, down 0.13%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 8.58%, unchanged. [2] 3.7 Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture's July supply - demand report shows that the estimated cotton output in the US for the 2025/26 season is 14.6 million bales, up from 14 million bales in June, and the ending inventory is 4.6 million bales, up from 4.3 million bales in June. The report has a slightly bearish impact. [2] 3.8 View Summary - The textile industry is in the off - season of consumption, with poor new orders and a slow decline in the overall operating rate. As of July 10, the operating load of spinning enterprises in mainstream areas is 70.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.84%. [2]

Report Overview - Report Date: July 7, 2025 - Report Title: Cotton (Yarn) Industry Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - The cotton market is in a state of destocking, but the off - season consumption slows down the destocking speed. The overall trend is slightly bullish with oscillations. Weather and macro factors should be continuously monitored. The textile industry shows off - season consumption characteristics, with poor new orders, a slow decline in the overall operating rate, and cautious raw material procurement by enterprises [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Price**: The closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract is 13,760 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the closing price of the main cotton yarn futures contract is 19,955 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan [2]. - **Net Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in cotton futures are - 23,095 lots, an increase of 4,152 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures are - 93 lots, an increase of 222 lots [2]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the main cotton futures contract is 543,865 lots, a decrease of 2,264 lots; the open interest of the main cotton yarn futures contract is 23,566 lots, an increase of 694 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of cotton warehouse receipts is 10,039 sheets, a decrease of 28 sheets; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts is 2 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Cotton Price Index**: The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,201 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,736 yuan/ton, unchanged; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 14,447 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Yarn Price Index**: The China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32s) is 20,420 yuan/ton, unchanged; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32s) is 21,915 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32s) is 23,703 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Planting and Production**: The national cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6160 thousand tons, an increase of 540 thousand tons [2]. - **Price Spread and Inventory**: The cotton - yarn price spread is 5,219 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan; the industrial inventory of cotton nationwide is 850 thousand tons, an increase of 24 thousand tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Import Volume**: The monthly import volume of cotton is 40 thousand tons, a decrease of 20 thousand tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 100 thousand tons, a decrease of 20 thousand tons [2]. - **Profit and Inventory**: The daily profit of imported cotton is 753 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the monthly commercial inventory of cotton nationwide is 345.87 thousand tons, a decrease of 69.39 thousand tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Inventory Days**: The yarn inventory days are 21.12 days, an increase of 0.14 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 32.54 days, an increase of 1.37 days [2]. - **Output**: The monthly output of cloth is 2.67 billion meters, a decrease of 0.05 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn is 195.1 thousand tons, a decrease of 3.6 thousand tons [2]. - **Export Volume**: The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1,357,773.7 thousand US dollars, an increase of 197,117.9 thousand US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1,263,177.3 thousand US dollars, an increase of 5,210.9 thousand US dollars [2]. 3.6 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 8.85%, a decrease of 0.92%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 8.85%, a decrease of 0.92% [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 5.95%, a decrease of 0.46%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 10.87%, a decrease of 1.73% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - **Domestic Inventory**: As of July 4, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory in China is 2.7476 million tons, a decrease of 132.3 thousand tons (a decrease of 4.59%) from the previous week. Among them, the commercial cotton inventory in Xinjiang is 1.9128 million tons, a decrease of 117.1 thousand tons (a decrease of 5.77%) from the previous week; the commercial cotton inventory in the inland area is 435.5 thousand tons, a decrease of 2.5 thousand tons (a decrease of 0.57%) from the previous week [2]. - **US Export**: For the week ending June 26, the net increase in US cotton export sales in the current market year is 23,700 bales, a decrease of 13% from the previous week and a decrease of 66% from the average of the previous four weeks. The net increase in US cotton export sales in the next market year is 106,600 bales. The US cotton export shipments are 255,800 bales, an increase of 39% from the previous week and an increase of 9% from the average of the previous four weeks [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic textile industry shows characteristics of the off - season, with poor new orders, a slow decline in the overall operating rate, and some spinning enterprises in a state of inventory accumulation and poor profitability, which affects raw material procurement willingness [2]. - Cotton is in a de - stocking state, but the de - stocking speed is slow due to the off - season. The market is generally oscillating slightly stronger, and continuous attention should be paid to weather and macro factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 13,805 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price is 20,075 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures is - 30,048 lots, a decrease of 2,088 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures is - 269 lots, a decrease of 59 lots [2]. - The main contract position of cotton is 560,465 lots, a decrease of 2,771 lots; the main contract position of cotton yarn is 22,405 lots, an increase of 382 lots [2]. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts is 10,190, a decrease of 21; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts is 2, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,163 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,420 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,688 yuan/ton, down 221 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 21,925 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [2]. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale tariff) is 14,409 yuan/ton, down 152 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 23,714 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2]. - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,257 yuan/ton, an increase of 49 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 826,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton is 40,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 100,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons [2]. - The daily profit of imported cotton is 803 yuan/ton, an increase of 210 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 3.4587 million tons, a decrease of 693,900 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 21.12 days, an increase of 0.14 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 32.54 days, an increase of 1.37 days [2]. - The monthly cloth output is 2.67 billion meters, a decrease of 0.05 billion meters; the monthly yarn output is 1.951 million tons, a decrease of 36,000 tons [2]. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1,357,773,700 US dollars, an increase of 197,117,900 US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1,263,177,300 US dollars, an increase of 5,210,900 US dollars [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton is 7.1%, a decrease of 2.76%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton is 7.1%, a decrease of 2.76% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 6.37%, a decrease of 0.07%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 12.8%, a decrease of 0.02% [2]. Industry News - As of the week ending June 29, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 51%, compared with 47% the previous week and 50% in the same period last year [2]. - The US Department of Agriculture's planting intention report shows that the expected cotton planting area in the US in 2025 is 10.12 million acres, higher than the previous market forecast of 9.735 million acres. The actual cotton planting area in the US in 2024 was 11.183 million acres [2].

棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-06-30 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 但是消费淡季导致去库存速度缓慢，整体震荡略偏强，持续关注天气和宏观因素。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13740 | -20 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19990 | -115 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -33777 | 2608 棉纱期货前20名净持仓( ...