棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-08-26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 14100 | -20 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20130 | -35 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -57567 | -3023 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | -516 | 193 | | | 主力合约持仓量:棉花(日,手) | 508064 | 3455 主力合约持仓量:棉纱(日,手) | 22263 | -13 | | | 仓单数量:棉花(日,张) | 6977 | -127 仓单数量:棉纱(日,张) | 63 | 0 | | | 中国棉花价格指数:CCIndex:3128B(日,元 | 15334 | 99 中国纱线价格指数:纯棉普梳纱32支(日, | 20760 | 20 | | | /吨) 中国进口棉价格指数:FCIndexM:1%关税( | | 元/吨) | | | | 现货市场 | | 13610 | 104 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ICE cotton futures price will fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the USDA weekly export sales report [2] - Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, supply is tight before the new cotton is on the market, and the spot price and basis are firm [2] - The textile industry is in the off - season of consumption, mainland spinning mills have no profit, the overall operating rate continues to decline, and enterprises mainly purchase raw materials as needed, hoping that the "Golden September and Silver October" will bring an opportunity for demand improvement [2] - In 2025, the overall cotton planting area in China has increased, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on the growth of new crops [2] - Currently, the domestic old - crop supply is tight, which supports the cotton price fluctuations, but the weak downstream demand limits the upside space. The price will maintain a high - level shock in the short - term. If the future demand improves marginally, the price center may move up slightly. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price: 14,030 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net position: - 48,506 lots, down 639 lots; main contract holding volume of cotton: 481,950 lots, up 3,484 lots; cotton warehouse receipt quantity: 7,335 lots, down 120 lots; China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 15,210 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2] - Cotton yarn main contract closing price: 20,060 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; cotton yarn futures top 20 net position: - 363 lots, down 97 lots; main contract holding volume of cotton yarn: 22,074 lots, down 75 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity: 69 lots, unchanged; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S): 20,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 13,541 yuan/ton, unchanged; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty tax): 14,320 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S): 22,035 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32S): 23,912 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,460 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan; industrial inventory of cotton nationwide: 857,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons; monthly import volume of cotton: 50,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons; monthly import volume of cotton yarn: 110,000 tons, unchanged [2] - Imported cotton profit: 894 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; commercial inventory of cotton nationwide: 2.1898 million tons, down 0.64 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 27.67 days, down 0.69 days; inventory days of grey cloth: 36.14 days, down 1.1 days; monthly cloth output: 2.7 billion meters, down 0.079 billion meters; monthly yarn output: 2.065 million tons, an increase of 0.114 million tons [2] - Monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories: 151,617.59 million US dollars, down 10,495.5 thousand US dollars; monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products: 116,040.09 million US dollars, down 44,419.8 thousand US dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option for cotton: 10.53%, an increase of 0.09%; implied volatility of at - the - money put option for cotton: 10.53%, an increase of 0.07%; 20 - day historical volatility of cotton: 7.78%, an increase of 0.2%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton: 5.65%, a decrease of 0.04% [2] 3.7 Industry News - On August 21, the spinning profit was - 1,354.2 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton. The raw material cotton price decreased, and the spinning mills' spot - on - hand profit increased slightly [2] - On Wednesday, the ICE cotton December contract closed flat. On Thursday, the cotton 2601 contract rose 0.11%, and the cotton yarn 2511 contract rose 0.05% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Internationally, ICE cotton futures prices are rising with short - term volatility. Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, supply is tight before the new cotton is on the market, and spot prices and basis are firm. On the demand side, it's the off - season for textile consumption, spinning mills have no profit, the overall operating rate is declining, and raw material purchases are mainly for rigid demand, hoping for demand improvement in the "Golden September and Silver October". In 2025, China's cotton planting area has increased, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on new crops. Overall, tight supply of old crops supports price fluctuations, but expected increase in new crop output and weak downstream demand limit the upside. The market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 14,055 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 20,065 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 47,867 lots, an increase of 11,592 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 266 lots, an increase of 194 lots. - Cotton main contract open interest is 478,466 lots, down 10,082 lots; cotton yarn main contract open interest is 22,149 lots, an increase of 235 lots. - Cotton warehouse receipts are 7,455 lots, down 141 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 69 lots, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,240 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; China Yarn Price Index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32s is 20,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,593 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty) is 14,349 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan. - Arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32s is 22,045 yuan/ton, down 88 yuan; for pure - cotton combed yarn 32s is 23,923 yuan/ton, down 89 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - National cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 540,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference is 5,460 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; national industrial inventory of cotton is 857,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons. - Monthly import volume of cotton is 50,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons; monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 110,000 tons, unchanged. - Imported cotton profit is 894 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; national commercial inventory of cotton is 2.1898 million tons, down 640,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days are 27.67 days, down 0.69 days;坯布 inventory days are 36.14 days, down 1.1 days. - Monthly cloth output is 2.7 billion meters, down 79 million meters; monthly yarn output is 2.065 million tons, an increase of 114,000 tons. - Monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1.5161759 billion US dollars, down 10.4955 million US dollars; monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1.1604009 billion US dollars, down 44.4198 million US dollars [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money cotton call options is 10.44%, down 0.4%; implied volatility of at - the - money cotton put options is 10.46%, down 0.36%. - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.57%, up 0.17%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 5.68%, up 0.02% [2] Industry News - India has suspended the 11% import tariff on cotton until September 30. On Tuesday, the ICE December cotton contract closed down 0.46%. On Wednesday, the cotton 2601 contract closed down 0.5%, and the cotton yarn 2511 contract closed down 0.45% [2]

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View The domestic old - crop cotton supply is tight, which supports price fluctuations, but weak downstream demand restricts the upside. The cotton market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of Zhengzhou cotton's main contract was 14,125 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan), and that of the main cotton yarn contract was 20,155 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan). The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 63,829 lots (down 3,972 lots), and for cotton yarn futures it was - 421 lots (up 34 lots). The main - contract positions of cotton and cotton yarn were 486,067 lots (up 8,447 lots) and 21,948 lots (up 612 lots) respectively. The cotton and cotton - yarn warehouse receipt numbers were 7,762 (down 67) and 69 (down 5) respectively [2]. - **Spot Market**: The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,234 yuan/ton (up 18 yuan), and the China Yarn Price Index for pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 20,720 yuan/ton (unchanged). The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 13,558 yuan/ton (down 18 yuan), and the arrival price of imported pure - cotton carded 32 - count yarn was 22,128 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan) [2]. - **Upstream Situation**: The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares (up 48.3 thousand hectares), and the national cotton output was 616 tons (up 54 tons) [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,486 yuan/ton (down 18 yuan). The national industrial inventory of cotton was 85 tons (up 2.4 tons), and the national commercial inventory of cotton was 282.98 tons (down 62.89 tons). The import volume of cotton was 5 tons (up 2 tons), and that of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons (up 10,000 tons). The profit of imported cotton was 890 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan) [2]. - **Downstream Situation**: The yarn inventory days were 23.86 days (up 1.52 days), and the grey - cloth inventory days were 35.46 days (up 2.57 days). The monthly cloth output was 2.779 billion meters (up 0.109 billion meters), and the monthly yarn output was 206.5 tons (up 11.4 tons). The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1,526,671,400 US dollars (up 168,897,700 US dollars), and that of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1,204,820,700 US dollars (down 58,356,600 US dollars) [2]. - **Option Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton was 10.9% (down 0.19%), and that of at - the - money put options was 10.88% (down 0.18%). The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 7.2% (up 0.19%), and the 60 - day historical volatility was 5.64% (up 0.04%) [2]. 2. Industry News - China's cotton imports in July were 5 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%. From January to July, the cumulative import of cotton was 52 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.2% [2]. - As of August 15, 2025, the total commercial inventory of cotton was 1.8561 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 150,600 tons (a decrease of 7.50%). In Xinjiang, the commercial inventory of cotton was 1.1319 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 150,000 tons (a decrease of 11.70%); in inland areas, it was 418,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14,900 tons (an increase of 3.69%) [2]. - The December ICE cotton contract closed down 0.16% last Friday. The January 2026 cotton contract closed up 0.11% on Monday, and the November 2025 cotton - yarn contract closed down 0.22%. The US Department of Agriculture's export sales report showed that for the week ending August 7, the net increase in US cotton export sales for the current market year was 242,000 bales, and that for the next year was 1,100 bales [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report Affected by the rise in the grain market and the decline in the good - quality rate of US cotton, US cotton rose slightly. Waiting for the USDA monthly supply - demand report. The joint statement of the China - US Stockholm economic and trade talks indicates that both sides have suspended the implementation of mutual 24% tariffs for another 90 days. Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, and the supply is tight before the new cotton is on the market, with a firm basis. On the demand side, the off - season consumption characteristics of the textile industry are evident. Mainland textile enterprises have no profit, and the overall operating rate continues to decline. Enterprises' procurement of raw materials is mainly for rigid demand. In terms of new crops, China's total cotton planting area increased in 2025. High temperatures in Xinjiang in the next few days require attention to the impact of weather on new crop growth. Overall, although the current tight supply supports cotton prices, weak downstream demand and market expectations for quotas limit the upside space. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price was 13,980 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price was 20,015 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan. - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 30,886 hands, a decrease of 6,095 hands; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures was - 175 hands, a decrease of 272 hands. - The main contract position of cotton was 412,957 hands, an increase of 166,751 hands; the main contract position of cotton yarn was 18,627 hands, an increase of 745 hands. - The cotton warehouse receipt quantity was 8,087 sheets, a decrease of 85 sheets; the cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity was 74 sheets, a decrease of 1 sheet [2]. 3.2. Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,177 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,620 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 13,402 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) was 14,226 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. - The arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 22,149 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 24,030 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan [2]. 3.3. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2]. 3.4. Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,443 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan. - The industrial inventory of cotton nationwide was 850,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons. - The monthly import volume of cotton was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. - The profit of imported cotton was 941 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan. - The commercial inventory of cotton nationwide was 2.8298 million tons, a decrease of 0.6289 million tons [2]. 3.5. Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days were 23.86 days, an increase of 1.52 days; the inventory days of grey cloth were 35.46 days, an increase of 2.57 days. - The monthly cloth output was 2.779 billion meters, an increase of 0.109 billion meters; the monthly yarn output was 2.065 million tons, an increase of 0.114 million tons. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5266714 billion US dollars, an increase of 0.1688977 billion US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.2048207 billion US dollars, a decrease of 0.0583566 billion US dollars [2]. 3.6. Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options was 13.48%, an increase of 4.81 percentage points; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options was 13.48%, an increase of 4.81 percentage points. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 11.24%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 7.79%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points [2]. 3.7. Industry News - The joint statement of the China - US Stockholm economic and trade talks indicates that both sides have suspended the implementation of mutual 24% tariffs for another 90 days. - As of the week ending August 10, 2025, the good - quality rate of US cotton was 53%, down from 55% the previous week and up from 46% in the same period last year. - On Monday, the ICE cotton December contract rose 0.3%. On Tuesday, the cotton 2601 contract rose 0.79%, and the cotton yarn 2511 contract rose 1.52% [2].

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 。虽然当前供应偏紧，但是下游需求疲软，新作面积产量增加、天气题材降温，加上市场对配额有预期， 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-08-06 预计反弹空间有限，整体震荡波动。操作上，暂时观望。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13690 | 35 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19710 | 40 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持 ...

业对原材料的采购更加谨慎。新作方面，2025年中国棉花总体种植面积增长，下周新疆最高气温有所下降 数据来源第三方(wind、同花顺、棉花信息网、棉花协会网)，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ ，天气题材降温。总体来说，虽然棉花2509合约减仓反弹，但是下游需求持续疲软，新作面积产量增加、 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 天气题材降温，加上市场对配额有预期，棉花2509合约维持低位偏弱行情。操作上建议逢反弹短空交易， 棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-08-04 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13675 | 90 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19825 | 85 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -23840 | -5776 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | 19 | -2 | | | 主力合约持仓量:棉花(日,手) | 304033 | -2178 ...

谨慎。新作方面，2025年中国棉花总体种植面积增长，本周稍晚时候新疆气温有所下降，天气题材降温。 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 总体来说，虽然新棉上市前供应偏紧，但是下游需求持续疲软，天气题材降温，加上市场对配额有预期， 免责声明 棉花2509合约收跌，维持偏弱行情。操作上建议逢高短空交易，注意控制风险。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-07-31 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13650 | -105 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19770 | -100 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -26047 | -3301 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | -36 | 141 | | | 主力合约持仓量:棉花(日,手) | 349549 | -26 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Although the supply of cotton is tight before the new cotton is on the market, the downstream demand remains weak, the weather - related factors have cooled down, and the market has expectations for quotas. Therefore, the cotton 2509 contract will continue its weak trend. It is recommended to conduct short - selling transactions on rallies and pay attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of Zhengzhou cotton's main contract is 13,755 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of cotton yarn is 19,870 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures is - 22,746 lots, an increase of 4,260 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures is - 177 lots, an increase of 87 lots - The position of the main contract of cotton is 375,938 lots, a decrease of 37,724 lots; the position of the main contract of cotton yarn is 5,384 lots, a decrease of 2,257 lots - The number of cotton warehouse receipts is 9,055 sheets, a decrease of 101 sheets; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts is 91 sheets, unchanged [2] 3.2. Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,470 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,680 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,616 yuan/ton, down 122 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 22,033 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - scale duty) is 14,360 yuan/ton, down 89 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count fine - combed cotton yarn is 23,994 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons - The cotton - cotton yarn price difference is 5,210 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 850,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons [2] 3.4. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton is 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons - The daily profit from importing cotton is 1,131 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 2.8298 million tons, a decrease of 0.6289 million tons [2] 3.5. Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 23.86 days, an increase of 1.52 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 35.46 days, an increase of 2.57 days - The monthly output of cloth is 2.779 billion meters, an increase of 0.109 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn is 2.065 million tons, an increase of 0.114 million tons - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1.5266714 billion US dollars, an increase of 0.1688977 billion US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1.2048207 billion US dollars, a decrease of 0.0583566 billion US dollars [2] 3.6. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton is 13.39%, a decrease of 2.76 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton is 13.39%, a decrease of 2.75 percentage points - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 9.63%, an increase of 0.98 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 8.71%, an increase of 0.19 percentage points [2] 3.7. Industry News - According to Mysteel research, the national commercial inventory of cotton is decreasing. As of July 25, 2025, the total commercial inventory of cotton is 2.3056 million tons, a decrease of 0.1519 million tons (a decrease of 6.18%) from the previous week. Among them, the commercial inventory of cotton in Xinjiang is 1.5433 million tons, a decrease of 0.1298 million tons (a decrease of 7.76%) from the previous week; the commercial inventory of cotton in the inland area is 0.409 million tons, a decrease of 0.0101 million tons (a decrease of 2.41%) from the previous week - On Tuesday, the December contract of ICE cotton closed down 0.94%. The cotton 2509 contract fell 1.89%, and the cotton yarn 2509 contract closed down 1.34% - Internationally, affected by the decline in the grain market, the strengthening of the US dollar, and the extension of Sino - US tariff measures, the price of US cotton futures has been continuously falling. The Sino - US talks in Stockholm, Sweden have ended. After the talks, relevant Chinese officials said that according to the consensus of the new round of Sino - US economic and trade talks, both sides will continue to promote the extension of the 24% part of the US reciprocal tariffs that have been suspended and China's counter - measures as scheduled. Currently, there is no change in the tariffs between the two countries, and no final trade agreement has been reached [2] 3.8. Domestic Situation - Cotton is in the process of destocking, and there is no news about quotas. The supply is tight before the new cotton is on the market. On the demand side, the textile industry is in the off - season of consumption. Inland textile enterprises have no profit, the overall operating rate continues to decline, and due to the recent rise in raw material prices, enterprises are more cautious in purchasing raw materials - In terms of new crops, the overall cotton planting area in China increased in 2025. The temperature in Xinjiang decreased slightly later this week, and the weather - related factors have cooled down [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton market is in a destocking state, with tight supply before the new cotton is on the market. The demand side shows characteristics of the off - season in the textile industry, with low profitability and a decreasing operating rate of spinning enterprises. The new cotton planting area has increased, but there are high - temperature risks in some areas of Xinjiang. As prices rise, downstream procurement is cautious, demand is weak, and the upward momentum of the market is gradually weakening. The cotton 2509 contract has recently declined, showing an adjustment trend. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on weather and the results of Sino - US trade negotiations. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13,925 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closed at 19,995 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan. - Cotton futures' top 20 net positions were - 27,006 hands, an increase of 6,225 hands; cotton yarn futures' top 20 net positions were - 264 hands, an increase of 293 hands. - The main contract positions of cotton were 413,662 hands, a decrease of 55,334 hands; those of cotton yarn were 7,641 hands, a decrease of 1,770 hands. - Cotton warehouse receipts were 9,156 sheets, a decrease of 70 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 91 sheets, unchanged. - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,580 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) was 20,720 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. [2] 现货市场 - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 13,721 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) was 22,116 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan. - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale tariff) was 14,430 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) was 23,994 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons. - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,140 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan; the industrial inventory of cotton nationwide was 850,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons. [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. - The profit of imported cotton was 1,179 yuan/ton, an increase of 119 yuan; the commercial inventory of cotton nationwide was 2.8298 million tons, a decrease of 0.6289 million tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days were 23.86 days, an increase of 1.52 days; the inventory days of grey cloth were 35.46 days, an increase of 2.57 days. - The monthly output of cloth was 2.779 billion meters, an increase of 0.109 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn was 2.065 million tons, an increase of 0.114 million tons. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5266714 billion US dollars, an increase of 0.1688977 billion US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.2048207 billion US dollars, a decrease of 0.0583566 billion US dollars. [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options was 16.15%, an increase of 1.88 percentage points; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options was 16.14%, an increase of 1.87 percentage points. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 8.65%, an increase of 0.45 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 8.52%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points. [2] Industry News - As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 55%, compared with 57% the previous week and 49% the same period last year. - On Monday, the December contract of ICE cotton closed up 0.1%, the cotton 2509 contract fell 1.87%, and the cotton yarn 2509 contract fell 1.91%. [2]