Group 1 - The core point of the news is that the GBP/USD pair experienced a decline despite a surprising increase in UK retail sales, which rose by 0.5% in September against an expected decrease of 0.2% [1] - The focus is now shifting towards the upcoming UK PMI and US CPI data, with the market awaiting the release of the US Consumer Price Index for September [1] - The GBP/USD pair has been trading in a narrow range around 1.3350, with four consecutive days of negative closing, indicating a prevailing bearish trend [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis shows that GBP/USD is trading around 1.3348, slightly lower than the opening price of 1.3351, indicating a lack of significant daily movement [2] - The short-term trend remains bearish as the spot price is below the declining moving averages, with the 20-period EMA at 1.3368, 50-period EMA at 1.3381, and 100-period EMA at 1.3398 [2] - Initial resistance levels are identified at the moving averages, while key support levels are at 1.3292, 1.3244, and 1.3196-1.3200, which coincide with Fibonacci retracement levels [2]

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. is expected to rise for the second consecutive month in September, with a projected increase of 0.4% from August, driven by higher gasoline prices and tariff-related costs on clothing, beef, and coffee [1][1][1] - Year-over-year, the CPI is estimated to increase by 3.1%, marking the highest level in 16 months, while the core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year [1][1][1] - Economists predict that consumers will bear up to 60% of the total tariff costs over the next six months, as companies gradually pass on costs while sacrificing hiring [1][1][1] Inflation Trends - Inflation in the services sector, particularly rent, may cool down, potentially offsetting the impact of rising goods prices [1][1][1] - Despite the strengthening inflation, the Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates by 25 basis points next week [1][1][1] Data Collection Concerns - The CPI report is released during a government shutdown, raising concerns about the quality of October's data due to disruptions in data collection and resource pressures on the Bureau of Labor Statistics [1][1][1]

Core Insights - The focus of Wall Street is on the upcoming September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due to the impact of the government shutdown, which has led to a lack of key economic data, increasing the potential for market volatility with any deviations from expectations [1][5]. Market Expectations - Analysts expect the September CPI data to show a month-over-month increase of 0.4%, consistent with August's growth, and a year-over-year increase of 3.1%, slightly higher than August [4]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, is also anticipated to remain stable with a month-over-month increase of 0.3% and a year-over-year increase of 3.1%, potentially marking the highest level since January [4]. Investor Sentiment - The absence of complete economic data has heightened investor reliance on the CPI report, which is seen as a critical indicator of market sentiment [3]. - Despite the uncertainty caused by the government shutdown, investors remain cautiously optimistic, with major stock indices near historical highs, although geopolitical uncertainties and fluctuating tariff situations continue to be a concern [5]. Federal Reserve Implications - The CPI report is crucial for market reactions and Federal Reserve policy decisions, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming meeting unless the CPI data significantly exceeds expectations [6].

Market Overview - The futures market shows a bullish sentiment with 65 contracts rising and 14 contracts falling today, indicating increased trading activity in upward-moving commodities [2] - Significant increases were observed in the prices of coking coal (+5.14%), coke (+4.21%), lithium carbonate (+4.17%), crude oil (+4.05%), and fuel oil (+3.42%) [5] - Conversely, the largest declines were seen in rapeseed (-1.22%), palm oil (-1.0%), and soybean oil (-0.7%), likely due to increased bearish pressure or negative fundamentals [6] Capital Flow - The most significant capital inflows were into the CSI 1000 (+7.413 billion), CSI 500 (+3.16 billion), and CSI 300 (+3.043 billion), indicating strong interest from major funds [8] - The largest capital outflows were from gold (-1.741 billion), soybean meal (-553 million), and silver (-379 million), suggesting notable withdrawals from these commodities [8] Position Changes - Notable increases in open interest were seen in lithium carbonate (+18.66%), coking coal (+14.44%), and CSI 1000 (+11.70%), indicating new funds entering these markets [11] - Significant decreases in open interest were recorded in lead (-12.28%), tin (-13.84%), and industrial silicon (-21.09%), suggesting potential exits by major funds [11] Key Events - In September, the total electricity consumption in China increased by 4.5% year-on-year, with the total reaching 888.6 billion kWh [12] - Domestic soda ash manufacturers reported a total inventory of 1.7021 million tons, a decrease of 0.86 thousand tons from the previous week [12] - Analysts suggest that Indonesia's B50 biodiesel blending policy may be delayed until 2027 due to funding constraints and unfavorable price differentials [13] Industry Insights - The urea industry is experiencing a significant decline in operating rates, with new high inventory levels reported [14] - As of October 23, rebar production has increased, while both factory and social inventories have decreased, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [15] - Glass inventory has reached a three-month high, with a notable increase in stock levels across most regions [15] Future Focus - Upcoming data releases include U.S. initial jobless claims and September CPI, which are expected to influence market sentiment and economic outlook [17][18]

Group 1 - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September 2025 on October 24, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET, which is significant for market and policy considerations [1][2] - The release was delayed by 9 days from the original schedule due to the U.S. government shutdown that began on October 1, affecting the operations of the BLS [2] - The report is crucial for the Social Security Administration to adjust benefits for the next fiscal year, highlighting its special purpose amid the government shutdown [2] Group 2 - The data collection for the September CPI was completed before the government shutdown, but ongoing shutdown impacts may affect the accuracy of future data, particularly for October [2] - The timing of the CPI report is critical as it precedes the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on October 28-29, where inflation data will be a key reference for potential interest rate discussions [2]

【最新伦敦金行情解析】 在过往的交易周期中，市场已然连续九周呈现周线收阳的良好态势。而本周的周K线走势，初步可判断 其进入了调整阶段。尤为值得关注的是，周五市场出现强势下跌行情，这一跌势不仅将当日早些时候的 上涨成果尽数抹去，还使得整体行情暂时陷入滞涨局面。 摘要今日周一（10月20日）亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4270美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报 4259.68美元/盎司，涨幅00.26%，最高上探4273.26美元/盎司，最低触及4218.19美元/盎司。目前来看， 伦敦金短线偏向震荡走势。 今日周一（10月20日）亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4270美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报4259.68 美元/盎司，涨幅00.26%，最高上探4273.26美元/盎司，最低触及4218.19美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金 短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 在当前经济形势下，劳动力及零售领域的最新数据缺失，给政策制定者带来了不小的挑战。当他们试图 判断通胀放缓的程度能否支撑持续宽松的货币政策时，往往只能依据那些不够全面或是已然过时的信 息。而周五即将公布的消费者价格指数（CPI），极有可能成为美联储在下一周做出关键 ...

美联储周三公布的褐皮书显示，特朗普政府加征的关税正推动整体通胀上升，企业在自行消化成本与将成本转嫁给客户之间艰难权衡。 美联储每年发布8次"褐皮书"，褐皮书汇总了12家地区联储对全美经济形势进行摸底的结果，该报告是美联储货币政策例会的重要参考资料。 报告显示，自9月3日上一份报告发布以来，美国整体经济增长"变化不大"。劳动力市场基本保持稳定，而大多数联储辖区的需求依然低迷。 不过，受近期移民政策变化影响，多个辖区反映酒店、农业、建筑和制造等行业的劳动力供应依然紧张。 这份报告发布之际，美国政府因预算僵局进入第三周停摆，导致相关经济数据缺失，包括劳工部和商务部在内的主要机构仍处于关门状态。这导致最新褐 皮书在决策者的考量中可能会被赋予更大权重。 不过，美国劳工统计局的部分员工已被召回，以发布关键的消费者价格指数(CPI)报告。CPI是衡量通胀的核心指标，原定于周三公布的CPI数据将推迟至 10月24日发布，这将是美联储在10月28日至29日政策会议前获取的最后一份通胀数据。 褐皮书还指出，近期消费者支出略有下降，不过高收入群体的奢侈品与旅游支出依然"强劲"；而中低收入群体则更多依赖折扣与促销活动。 部分地区的未 ...

Core Points - The U.S. Labor Department has delayed the release of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report originally scheduled for the 15th due to the federal government shutdown [1] - The Labor Department had previously postponed the release of the September employment data report that was due on the 3rd [1] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is part of the Labor Department, is responsible for several important statistical data releases that are now affected by the government shutdown [1]

从同比看，法国9月CPI涨幅略高于8月，主要由于服务价格涨势加快，同比上升2.4%；能源价格跌幅收 窄至4.4%，上月为6.2%。能源价格中，石油价格较去年同期小幅反弹，同比上涨0.2%，而去年则同比 下跌3.6%。食品价格和烟草价格同比均略有上升，而工业制成品价格跌幅则略有扩大。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经巴黎10月15日电（记者李文昕）法国国家统计和经济研究所（INSEE）15日公布的最终数据显 示，法国9月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨1.2%，较8月0.9%的增速略有加快；环比则下降1.0%，扭 转了上月0.4%的涨势。 报告指出，法国9月CPI环比下降，主要受服务价格季节性回落带动。服务价格当月环比下降1.9%，其 中住宿价格和交通服务价格增速明显放缓。此外，食品价格和工业制成品价格当月亦有所下降，烟草价 格则保持稳定。 ...

新华财经北京10月15日电瑞典、波兰和保加利亚日内相继发布9月通胀数据。数据显示，通胀表现呈现 显著分化：瑞典通胀率进一步回落至0.9%，明显低于其中央银行2%的目标；波兰通胀率连续第二个月 稳定在2.9%，维持2024年6月以来最低水平；而保加利亚通胀率则升至5.6%，创2023年10月以来新高。 瑞典统计局确认，该国9月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨0.9%，较8月1.1%的六个月高点继续回落， 亦低于瑞典央行设定的2%通胀目标。多个主要消费类别价格涨幅明显放缓：食品和非酒精饮料价格同 比上涨3.3%（前值4.7%），服装鞋类上涨1.7%（前值3.2%），酒精饮料和烟草上涨1.3%（前值 1.5%），杂项商品和服务上涨3.5%（前值3.8%）。 波兰中央统计局数据显示，该国9月CPI同比上涨2.9%，与8月持平，符合初步预估，并维持自2024年6 月以来的最低水平。食品和非酒精饮料价格涨幅放缓至4.2%（前值4.9%），教育类价格涨幅显著回落 至6.8%（前值8.6%）。娱乐文化类通胀降至2.5%（前值2.9%），住房和公用事业类降至4.1%（前值 4.2%），餐厅酒店类降至5.4%（前值5.7%），通 ...