Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States increased by 2.9% year-on-year in August, matching the forecast and up from the previous value of 2.7% [1]

Core Insights - Bloomberg Economic Research anticipates a significant rise in the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August, driven primarily by non-essential service expenditures such as airfare and hotel stays rather than tariffs [1] - The increase in these expenditures is ironically a result of the Trump administration's efforts to lower tariffs through various ceasefire agreements and trade deals, which in turn has led to a more accommodative financial environment [1] - The upcoming CPI report, in conjunction with the August Producer Price Index (PPI), suggests that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, favored by the Federal Reserve, may see a slight year-over-year increase to 3.0% [1] Market Expectations - The market widely expects the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to announce a rate cut during its meeting on September 16-17 [1] - However, if inflation data comes in strong, the risk increases that this may be the only rate cut for the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese exporters appear to have strong bargaining power in trade with the U.S., bearing only 9% of the cost burden from tariffs imposed by President Trump earlier this year, contrary to U.S. officials' claims of a victorious stance in the global tariff situation [1][3]. Group 1: Cost Distribution Analysis - U.S. importers are caught in the middle of the supply chain, unable to fully pass on costs to the end market or exporters, leading them to compress profit margins as a response [3]. - A regression analysis comparing shipping volumes, tariff rates, and changes in U.S. import prices indicates that from April to July, the average price of goods imported from China decreased by 2.4%, while actual tariffs increased by 27 percentage points [3][6]. - The estimated cost burden on Chinese exporters is significantly lower than the global average of 40%, with U.S. importers expected to bear half of the costs and U.S. consumers covering the remaining 8% to 10% [5]. Group 2: Comparative Tariff Burden - ASEAN, Japan, and the EU are expected to bear a much larger share of tariff costs, with ASEAN and Japan estimated to shoulder 20% and 37% respectively [6]. - The 9% tariff rate on Chinese goods is considerably lower than the 66% rate reported by some U.S. retail giants to their Chinese suppliers, indicating that Chinese firms have managed to limit their share of the tariff burden [6]. Group 3: Future Implications - The tariff costs are projected to gradually impact U.S. consumer inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with estimates suggesting a potential CPI increase of about 1 percentage point and a core CPI increase of approximately 1.1 percentage points if actual tax rates remain between 16% and 17% [6]. - The main factors influencing future cost distribution will be whether exporters can further reduce prices and whether importers can continue to absorb cost pressures [6].

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate opened at 0.8000 and is currently showing a slight increase, with market expectations focused on the upcoming Swiss CPI data for August, which is anticipated to remain stable at an annual rate of 0.2% [1] Exchange Rate Movement - The USD/CHF rate is currently at 0.8012, reflecting a 0.15% increase from the previous close [1] - The highest price recorded today is 0.8016, while the lowest is 0.7999 [1] Economic Indicators - The Swiss CPI data set to be released on Thursday is crucial for the CHF's performance, as higher-than-expected inflation could reduce the likelihood of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) lowering interest rates into negative territory later this year [1] - The SNB had previously cut the policy rate to zero in June, with the CPI for May showing a year-on-year rate of -0.1% [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - The next SNB interest rate decision is scheduled for September 25, followed by another on December 11, with the CPI data expected to provide significant insights into market expectations regarding SNB's monetary policy [1] Technical Analysis - The USD/CHF is experiencing narrow fluctuations around 0.8015, facing clear resistance from a recent downward trend line, indicating a bearish outlook in the short term [1] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is notably below the midline, suggesting strong bearish momentum [1] - Resistance is identified near the recent high of 0.8100, while initial support is at the psychological level of 0.8000; a break below this support could lead to further declines towards the recent low of 0.7910 [1]

Core Viewpoint - India's GDP growth of 7.8% for the April to June quarter is seen as potentially overstated due to statistical factors, particularly a low deflator impacting the real economic growth assessment [1][4][5] Economic Growth Data - The reported GDP growth of 7.8% significantly exceeds economists' median forecast of 6.7% [1] - Analysts from Goldman Sachs, HSBC, and Nomura have raised their full-year growth forecasts for India despite concerns over data accuracy [2][6] Deflator and Inflation Adjustment - The GDP deflator used in India is closely tied to the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the primary inflation target for the Reserve Bank of India [3] - A negative WPI since May has led to an unusually low GDP deflator, artificially inflating the reported economic growth rate [4] Forecast Adjustments - Nomura has revised its growth forecast for the fiscal year from 6% to 6.6%, while Goldman Sachs increased its estimate from 6.1% to 6.7% [6][7] - Despite these upward adjustments, analysts caution that the GDP data does not signal strong underlying demand [7] External Economic Pressures - The U.S. has announced a 50% tariff on Indian goods, effective August 27, which is expected to impact economic performance in subsequent months [7][8] - Goldman Sachs estimates that these tariffs could reduce India's annual GDP by 0.9 percentage points, translating to an additional drag of about 20 basis points on actual growth for the remainder of the year [8][9]

Group 1 - India's economy showed a strong growth of 7.8% year-on-year for the April to June quarter, surpassing economists' median forecast of 6.7% [1] - Analysts from Goldman Sachs, HSBC, and Nomura expressed concerns that a lower deflator may have inflated the growth figures, not accurately reflecting the true economic fundamentals [1][2] - Despite the concerns, market sentiment was boosted, with the Nifty benchmark index rising by 0.8% on the day following the data release [1] Group 2 - The GDP deflator used in India is closely related to the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), which has turned negative since May, leading to an artificially low deflator and potentially overstating GDP growth [2] - Goldman Sachs economist Santanu Sengupta suggested that using a corrected deflator could lower GDP data by 50 basis points, while HSBC's Pranjul Bhandari estimated the exaggeration could be as high as one percentage point [2] Group 3 - Several institutions have raised their annual growth forecasts for India, with Nomura increasing its estimate from 6% to 6.6% and Goldman Sachs from 6.1% to 6.7% [3] - Analysts caution that these upward revisions do not indicate a positive outlook on the economic fundamentals, as the growth is influenced by a low deflator and preemptive shipments to the U.S. due to tariff concerns [3] - The external challenge of a 50% tariff on Indian goods imposed by the U.S. is expected to impact economic data in the following months, with Goldman Sachs estimating a potential reduction of 0.9 percentage points in annual GDP [3]

Overview - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the U.S. surged by 0.9% month-on-month in August 2025, marking the largest single-month increase since June 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, significantly exceeding market expectations. This indicates a potential resurgence of inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy, prompting a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory [1]. Key Drivers of PPI Surge - **Service Costs Surge**: Wholesale and retail sectors saw profit margins increase by 2% month-on-month in July, with machinery and equipment wholesale producers leading the PPI increase. Additionally, portfolio management costs surged by 5.8% to 6% due to asset price volatility, which is closely tied to financial market performance. Other service prices, such as air passenger services and cable/internet services, also rose significantly, contributing to higher service costs [1]. - **Tariff Policy Impact**: The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are gradually taking effect, leading companies to pass on higher import costs to consumers. Despite a softening demand in the first half of the year, businesses are adjusting pricing strategies to offset cost pressures. Supply chain disruptions caused by tariff policies have further increased production costs [4][7]. - **Energy Price Volatility**: While prices for oil, coal, and other fuels decreased by 2% month-on-month, overall energy price fluctuations still impacted the PPI, particularly with diesel fuel-driven intermediate demand processing costs rising by 0.8% [4]. Impact of PPI Surge on Inflation - **Leading Indicator Role**: The PPI typically reflects price movement trends ahead of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The sharp increase in July's PPI suggests that businesses may begin passing costs onto consumers, indicating potential upward pressure on future CPI [5]. - **Core PCE Forecast Adjustment**: Institutions like Goldman Sachs and UBS have adjusted their forecasts for the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, predicting a year-on-year increase approaching 3.5% in the second half of 2025, although short-term forecasts have only slightly adjusted to 2.9%-3.0% [5]. Market Reactions and Investment Strategies - **Federal Reserve Policy Adjustments**: Following the PPI data release, market expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September were largely eliminated, with a 93% probability still favoring a 25 basis point cut. However, uncertainty regarding future rate cuts has increased [11]. - **Market Sentiment**: The dollar index rose due to heightened inflation expectations, while prices for safe-haven assets like gold slightly declined, indicating a suppression of market risk appetite. The stock market experienced volatility, with major indices dropping after the PPI data release [11]. - **Investment Strategy Adjustments**: Analysts recommend that investors focus on the sustainability of high-volatility service items, such as portfolio management fees, rather than broad inflation pressures. Additionally, attention should be paid to the transmission effects of tariffs on commodity prices, especially in the latter half of the year and into the first half of the next year [11]. Conclusion and Future Outlook - The unexpected surge in the PPI in August 2025 highlights significant inflationary pressures driven by service cost increases, tariff impacts, and energy price volatility. This data suggests that inflation may rise again, despite relatively moderate CPI data. The market's expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have shifted, with a 25 basis point cut in September still likely [14]. - The future trajectory of inflation and Federal Reserve policy will be critical focal points for the market. If businesses continue to pass on tariff costs to consumers, core PCE may rise further, challenging the Federal Reserve's inflation targets. The Fed faces the challenge of balancing inflation control with avoiding an economic hard landing, potentially leading to a more tempered rate cut pace than the market anticipates [15].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the UK's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased from 3.6% in June to 3.8% in July, indicating rising inflation pressures [1] - The core CPI, excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, also saw a slight increase from 3.7% in June to 3.8% in July [1] - The CPI for services rose from 4.7% to 5.0%, reflecting broader inflationary trends in the service sector [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the rising CPI will put pressure on the Bank of England's monetary policy, making it difficult to further cut interest rates if inflation continues to rise [1] - The Bank of England recently lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4%, marking the fifth rate cut in a year [1] - The Bank of England forecasts that the inflation rate will peak at 4% in September before gradually returning to the target level of 2% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariffs on inflation and consumer prices in the U.S., highlighting that the expected transmission of tariff costs to consumer prices has not been as severe as anticipated, with companies absorbing costs to maintain profit margins [2][4][6]. Group 1: Inflation and Tariffs - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a slight increase, but remains below expectations, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly rose [2]. - Some industries severely affected by tariffs have seen price surges, yet July data indicates a relief in price pressures for certain goods, while service sectors are experiencing increased price pressures [2]. - JPMorgan's report suggests that companies are absorbing tariff costs at the expense of profit margins, with current profit margins at historical highs allowing for cost absorption without damaging capital or operational budgets [2][4]. Group 2: Tariff Rates and Consumer Impact - Barclays reports that the actual weighted average tariff rate in May was only 9%, lower than the previously estimated 12%, indicating that the impact of tariffs may be less than expected [2][4]. - The article notes that over half of U.S. imported goods benefited from tax exemptions, which has shifted demand away from high-tariff countries [3]. - Citi Research has not found significant evidence of widespread price pressure from tariffs, attributing recent service price increases to one-time factors [5]. Group 3: Future Projections and Economic Implications - Despite potential future tariff increases, Citi's chief economist predicts that consumers will not face significant price hikes due to weakening demand, which limits companies' ability to pass on costs [6]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts that consumers will bear a larger share of tariff costs, with the proportion expected to rise from 22% to 67% if current trade policies continue [6]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the extent of tariff impacts on inflation for the Federal Reserve, as persistent inflation above the 2% target complicates monetary policy decisions [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that France's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 1.0% in July, consistent with June's growth rate, while the month-on-month increase was 0.2%, lower than June's 0.4% [1] - The year-on-year increase in CPI was primarily driven by a slight rise in service prices and food prices, which increased by 2.5% and 1.6% respectively, while energy prices saw a significant decline of 7.2% [1] - The year-on-year price of industrial manufactured goods decreased by 0.2%, maintaining the same decline rate as in June [1] Group 2 - Month-on-month, service prices continued to rise in July, particularly in transportation services and accommodation, which saw increases of 10.2% and 11.7% respectively [1] - Energy prices increased by 0.9% month-on-month, with petroleum product prices rising by 1.5% [1] - Due to summer promotions, the month-on-month price of industrial manufactured goods fell by 2.4% [1]