【美联储理事沃勒：若2月就业数据强劲 可能倾向于暂停加息】智通财经2月23日电，美联储理事沃勒 表示，如果2月就业数据强劲，可能倾向于暂停加息。潜在的通货膨胀率接近2%的目标水平。 ...

Economic Indicators - December inflation numbers remain concerning, with the PC core at 3%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's target [1] - Wages and salaries increased by only 0.2% in December, a notable decline from November's figures [2] GDP and Spending - GDP growth came in at 1.4%, which was significantly lower than anticipated, reflecting a decline in consumption [3] - Business spending increased, primarily driven by investments in software and intellectual property, while inventories and trade contributed minimally [3] Government Shutdown Impact - The government shutdown is estimated to have reduced GDP by one percentage point, as it affected government spending due to unpaid wages [4] - The impact of the shutdown is expected to reverse in the first quarter as back pay is distributed to affected workers [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate a shift in inflation predictions, with the timeline for reaching a 2% inflation rate being extended from 2027 to 2028, and the specific timeline for achieving this target was not mentioned in the latest minutes [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve staff's forecasts for inflation have been adjusted, with predictions indicating a slight increase compared to December's estimates, maintaining a balanced outlook [1] - The impact of tariffs is expected to conclude mid-year, which may lead inflation to revert to its previous downward trend [1] - The critical statement from December's minutes regarding achieving a 2% inflation rate by 2028 has been omitted in the January minutes [1]

2025年4月至7月，莫消费者价格指数录得八次月度下降(通缩)，随后从8月份开始恢复上涨趋势。莫政 府曾预测2025年通胀率为约7%，目前数据仅为预测的一半。据莫国家统计局早前数据，2024年莫累计 通胀率为4.15%，2023年为5.3%。 莫桑比克莫新社1月12日消息，据莫国家统计局数据，2025年莫整体物价上涨了3.23%，主要由食品和 非酒精饮料业，及餐饮酒店业的价格上涨推动。 ...

公布的数据显示，2026年1月消费者物价指数(CPI) 升至262.3，高于2025年1月的252.6，同比通胀率为 3.8%。这比2025年1月记录的23.5%下降了19.7个百分点，比2025 年12月记录的5.4%的通货膨胀率下降 了1.6个百分点。2026年1月食品通胀率同比下降至3.9%，低于2025年12月的4.9%。同期非食品通胀率也 从5.8%降至3.9%，尽管非食品价格环比上涨了0.4%。商品通胀率进一步放缓至3.6%，服务通胀率也降 至4.0%，低于2025年12月的4.5%。然而，服务价格环比上涨了0.3%。 数据显示，本地生产商品的通胀增速放缓幅度更大，降至2.0%，而进口商品的通胀率为4.3%，凸显了 进口带来的持续成本压力。尽管整体通胀呈下降趋势，但区域物价差异依然显著。东北地区的通胀率最 高，达11.2%，而萨凡纳地区的通胀率最低，仅为2.6%。当局认为，造成这种差异的主要原因是各地供 应状况、运输成本和市场准入方面的差异。 据加纳"乐在线"网2月5日报道。根据最新的消费者价格指数（CPI）数据，加纳2026年1月的通货膨胀率 大幅下降至3.8%，这是连续第13个月下降，也是自2 ...

新西兰第四季度失业率升至10年高位，因求职人数增加抵消了就业增长。这份喜忧参半的报告表明，利 率在一段时间内仍需维持低位。受此消息影响，新西兰元小幅回落至0.6045美元，利率期货则出现反 弹，因市场下调了加息的可能性（至少在9月前），目前官方隔夜拆款利率（OCR）为2.25%。 责任编辑：王永生 新西兰统计局的数据显示，第四季失业率小幅攀升至5.4%，创2015年第三季度以来新高，且高于市场 预期的5.3%。该数据也略高于新西兰央行的预测，这一结果令人失望，因近期其他数据曾显示疲软经 济有所改善。私营部门年薪增长率仍维持在2.0%的低位，远低于3.1%的消费者价格通胀率。 新西兰第四季度失业率升至10年高位，因求职人数增加抵消了就业增长。这份喜忧参半的报告表明，利 率在一段时间内仍需维持低位。受此消息影响，新西兰元小幅回落至0.6045美元，利率期货则出现反 弹，因市场下调了加息的可能性（至少在9月前），目前官方隔夜拆款利率（OCR）为2.25%。 新西兰统计局的数据显示，第四季失业率小幅攀升至5.4%，创2015年第三季度以来新高，且高于市场 预期的5.3%。该数据也略高于新西兰央行的预测，这一结果令人失 ...

来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 挪威央行政策声明截图 上证报中国证券网讯 挪威央行1月22日宣布，将基准利率维持在4%的水平不变。该央行继续暗示不急于降低借贷成本，因 为通胀仍然过高，令人不安。自2024年秋季以来，该国不包括能源价格在内的通货膨胀率已接近3%。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 挪威央行政策声明截图 上证报中国证券网讯 挪威央行1月22日宣布，将基准利率维持在4%的水平不变。该央行继续暗示不急于降低借贷成本，因 为通胀仍然过高，令人不安。自2024年秋季以来，该国不包括能源价格在内的通货膨胀率已接近3%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that Germany's inflation rate for the year 2025 is projected to be 2.2%, remaining stable compared to 2024, with a core inflation rate of 2.8% when excluding energy and food prices [2][4] - The data shows that the inflation rates in Germany were significantly higher in 2022 and 2023, reaching 6.9% and 5.9% respectively, primarily due to substantial increases in energy and food prices [2] - The German Federal Statistical Office reported a decrease in energy prices by 2.4% in 2025, while food prices are expected to rise by 2%, and service prices are projected to increase by 3.5% [4] Group 2 - By December 2025, Germany's inflation rate is expected to drop to 1.8%, marking the first time it falls below 2% for that year [4] - In December 2025, energy prices are anticipated to decrease by 1.3% year-on-year, while food prices are expected to rise by 0.8%, and service prices are projected to increase by 3.5% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The inflation rate in Germany is projected to remain stable at 2.2% in 2025, the same as in 2024, indicating a trend of stabilizing consumer prices after previous years of high inflation [1] Group 1: Inflation Trends - In 2025, energy prices in Germany are expected to decrease by 2.4%, while food prices will increase by 2% [1] - Service prices are anticipated to rise significantly, with an annual increase of 3.5%, particularly in areas such as passenger transport, social services, insurance, and inpatient medical care [1] - The core inflation rate, excluding energy and food prices, was recorded at 2.8% in the previous year [1] Group 2: Historical Context - The inflation rates in Germany were notably high in 2022 and 2023, reaching 6.9% and 5.9% respectively, primarily due to substantial increases in energy and food prices [1] - By December 2025, the inflation rate is expected to drop to 1.8%, marking the first time it falls below 2% for that year [1] - In December, energy prices are projected to decline by 1.3% year-on-year, while food prices will see a modest increase of 0.8%, and service prices will continue to rise by 3.5% [1]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that Germany's inflation rate is projected to remain stable at 2.2% in 2025, consistent with 2024 levels, reflecting a trend of stabilizing consumer prices after significant fluctuations in previous years [1] Inflation Trends - In 2025, energy prices in Germany are expected to decrease by 2.4%, while food prices are anticipated to rise by 2%. Service prices are projected to increase significantly, with an annual growth rate of 3.5%, particularly in sectors such as passenger transport, social services, insurance, and hospital care [1] - The core inflation rate, excluding energy and food prices, was recorded at 2.8% in the previous year [1] Historical Context - The inflation rates in Germany were notably high in 2022 and 2023, reaching 6.9% and 5.9% respectively, primarily due to substantial increases in energy and food prices [1]