巴西Poder360网站8月18日消息，巴西央行在最新发布的《焦点公报》（Focus）中，将2025年巴通 胀率预期从5.05%下调至4.95%，将2026年通胀率预期从4.41%下调至4.4%。报告显示，市场对2025年巴 GDP增长预测维持在2.21%，对2026年GDP增长预测维持在1.87%。根据报告，市场预测2025年巴基准 利率维持在15%，2026年维持在12.5%。与上周公布的数据相比，2025年底汇率预测保持不变，为1美元 兑5.6雷亚尔，2026年底汇率预测则维持在1美元兑5.7雷亚尔。 （原标题：巴西央行预测2025年巴通胀率为4.95%） ...

Core Viewpoint - Uzbekistan's government is implementing measures to ensure that annual increases in wages, pensions, and allowances exceed the inflation rate, aiming to enhance residents' real income and social security levels [1] Group 1: Economic Measures - The "Uzbekistan 2026-2028 Fiscal Strategy" outlines a series of measures to raise wages, pensions, and allowances above the inflation rate each year [1] - The Ministry of Economy and Finance plans to tighten social tax benefits to supplement the pension fund [1] Group 2: Taxation and Budget Allocations - Service industry taxpayers will continue to pay a reduced social tax rate of 1% until 2028, applicable only to salaries exceeding 3 million soums (approximately 235 USD) and for individuals under 30 years of age [1] - It is projected that the national budget will allocate over 20 trillion soums (15.8 billion USD) to the pension fund by 2025, increasing to 26 trillion soums (20.5 billion USD) by 2028 [1]

巴西地理统计局称，7月通胀的主要推手是居民电价。电价此前已在5月和6月连续成为通胀"主因"。不 过，7月当月仍实行红色一级电价旗帜机制，每消费100千瓦时电量需额外支付4.46雷亚尔。 7月全国居民消费价格指数（INPC）环比上涨0.21%，年内累计上涨3.30%，过去12个月累计上涨 5.13%。 今年前七个月，居民电价累计上涨10.18%，为2018年以来同期最高，当年同期涨幅为13.78%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经圣保罗8月12日电（记者杨家和）巴西地理统计局（IBGE）12日公布的数据显示，7月巴西全 国广义消费者物价指数（IPCA）环比上涨0.26%，高于6月的0.24%。这一官方通胀指标在截至7月的12 个月内累计上涨5.23%，较上个月的5.35%回落0.12个百分点。 食品和饮料价格7月整体下降0.27%，服装和通信价格分别下降0.54%和0.09%。其中，家庭食品价格环 比下降0.69%，跌幅最大的包括马铃薯、洋葱和大米分别下降20.27%、13.26%和2.89%。外出就餐价格 上涨0.87%。 ...

Core Insights - Croatia's consumer price index for July shows an inflation rate of 4.1% year-on-year, marking the third consecutive month of accelerating annual price increases [1] - Croatia's inflation rate is the highest in the Eurozone at 4.5%, compared to the Eurozone average annual inflation rate of 2% for July [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jordan's economy has shown a growth rate of 2.7% in both the last quarter of the previous year and the first quarter of this year, with expectations to maintain this growth rate throughout the year [1] Economic Performance - Inflation rate in Jordan for the first half of the year is recorded at 2% [1] - Tourism revenue has reached $3.7 billion [1] - Foreign exchange reserves stand at $22 billion, sufficient to cover 8.4 months of import needs [1] - Bank deposits in May amounted to 477 billion Jordanian Dinars [1] Economic Vision Progress - The Central Bank of Jordan has completed 90 out of 94 initiatives outlined in the 2023-2025 economic vision, with the remaining initiatives progressing smoothly [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's FOMC has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% to support maximum employment and a 2% inflation rate, while closely monitoring economic indicators and risks [4][6]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has slowed in the first half of the year, although the unemployment rate remains low and the labor market is stable [4][6]. - Inflation is still at a relatively high level, and the uncertainty regarding the economic outlook remains elevated [4][6]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Decisions - The FOMC will continue to reduce its holdings of Treasury securities, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities as part of its monetary policy strategy [4][6]. - The committee is prepared to adjust its monetary policy stance if risks emerge that could hinder the achievement of its goals [4][6]. Group 3: Committee Members - The voting members in favor of the monetary policy decision include FOMC Chair Powell, Vice Chair Williams, and several other regional Federal Reserve presidents and governors [5][7].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is not expected to lower interest rates in the upcoming meeting, but the market is closely watching for signs of potential rate cuts starting in September [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Current Stance - Analysts believe that clarity regarding interest rate decisions has not yet arrived, allowing Fed Chair Jerome Powell to maintain a wait-and-see approach [5]. - The Fed has signaled the possibility of needing to cut rates, but officials are waiting to assess the impact of President Trump's tariffs on the economy [4][5]. - The current economic conditions are not significantly different from a few months ago, despite a slowdown in growth [5]. Group 2: Employment and Inflation - Employers continued to add jobs in June, despite the economic slowdown [6]. - Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, with tariffs increasing the risk of sustained high inflation [7]. - The Fed's benchmark interest rate is currently between 4.25% and 4.5%, with officials outlining the possibility of two rate cuts by the end of the year [7]. Group 3: Market Expectations - The market perceives that the Fed's patience may soon wane, with a 62% probability of a rate cut in September according to CME Group's FedWatch tool [8]. - The Fed will have access to July and August employment reports to evaluate whether the job market is slowing down [9]. Group 4: Diverging Opinions within the Fed - Some economists believe that waiting until September for a rate cut may be too late, with the possibility that the Fed may not cut rates at all this year [10]. - Analysts expect Powell to reiterate that any decisions will depend on data [11]. - There is a growing divide among Fed officials, with some expressing concerns about inflation and the need for patience [15][17]. Group 5: Reasons for Rate Cuts - Two Fed officials have shown a tendency towards rate cuts, citing signs of economic slowdown despite a seemingly normal economy [13]. - Lowering borrowing costs for businesses and consumers could provide support before further economic deterioration [14]. - Concerns about inflation driven by tariffs are present, but some officials believe these effects may take time to fully manifest [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's unprecedented visit to the Federal Reserve, highlighting the tension between the government and the central bank regarding budget overruns and the request for interest rate cuts [2][3][8]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Budget Issues - The Federal Reserve is facing a lawsuit over its renovation budget, which was reported to be $1.9 billion but has already exceeded $2.5 billion [3][5]. - The renovations include luxurious furnishings and materials, raising concerns about government spending amid strict budget controls [5][6]. Group 2: Political Pressure and Interest Rates - President Trump, under pressure from his party and public dissatisfaction, is pushing for interest rate cuts to stabilize the economy and improve his approval ratings [8][19]. - The President's previous tax increases on various countries have led to rising costs for American consumers, contributing to public discontent [9][14][15]. Group 3: Independence of the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve operates independently from the government, and its chairman has stated that interest rate decisions are based solely on inflation rates, not political pressure [19].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that for deposits exceeding 200,000, traditional fixed-term deposits may not be the most profitable option due to declining interest rates and rising inflation [1][3] - It highlights that the interest rates for fixed-term deposits are generally low, making it difficult for depositors to achieve high returns [1][3] - The article suggests that large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) offer higher interest rates, with many banks currently offering rates close to 3%, compared to around 2% for fixed-term deposits [5] Group 2 - The potential annual earnings from a large-denomination CD at a 3% interest rate can reach approximately 6,000, while fixed-term deposits yield only about 4,000, resulting in a difference of 2,000 annually [5] - The article recommends diversifying investments to balance safety, liquidity, and returns, mentioning options like bonds, government bond reverse repos, and mutual fund systematic investment plans [5][7] - It stresses the importance of finding a balance between safety and returns in financial management, encouraging individuals to explore various investment options beyond fixed-term deposits [7]

Group 1 - Brazilian economists predict the inflation rate for 2025 to be 5.20%, a slight decrease from the previous estimate of 5.24% [1] - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 is maintained at 2.21%, while the 2026 GDP growth rate is slightly increased to 1.87% from the previous estimate of 1.85% [1] - The expected SELIC rate at the end of 2025 is projected to be 15%, unchanged from prior expectations, and the 2026 SELIC rate is forecasted to be 12.50%, also consistent with previous predictions [1]