Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September indicates that consumer inflation rose slightly less than expected, leading traders to increase bets on the Federal Reserve implementing two more 25 basis point rate cuts within this year [1] Group 1 - The September CPI report shows a lower-than-expected increase in consumer inflation [1] - Traders are now more confident in the likelihood of two additional rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Labor is resuming work on the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which was delayed due to the federal government shutdown [1] - The CPI report is scheduled to be released on October 24, 2023, which is a 9-day delay from the original date of October 15 [1] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) had previously suspended CPI reporting as part of the government shutdown emergency plan [1] Group 2 - The release of the September CPI data is critical for the Social Security Administration to calculate and announce the annual Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) by November 1 [1] - The ongoing government shutdown has also affected the publication of other labor statistics, including the non-farm payroll report [1] - The timing of the CPI release coincides with the Federal Reserve's upcoming FOMC policy meeting on October 28-29, where interest rate decisions are anticipated [2]

Group 1 - Investors are betting that the Bank of Japan will soon choose to raise interest rates, leading to a significant increase in bond yields, with the 10-year Japanese government bond yield reaching its highest level in 17 years [1] - On the same day, the 10-year bond yield rose by 1.5 basis points to 1.654%, while the 2-year and 30-year yields also saw increases [1] - The 10-year bond yield briefly hit 1.669%, marking a new 52-week high and the highest level since July 2008, as investors reacted to the recent Bank of Japan meeting [3] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan indicated that the economy is moderately recovering, despite some signs of weakness, and noted a mild growth in the global economy [3] - Consumer inflation in Japan rose in August compared to the previous year, with the consumer price index excluding fresh food increasing by 2.7%, although this was a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [3] - Food prices in Japan continue to surge, with an 8% year-on-year increase, and the average price of rice has approached historical highs [3] Group 3 - The Japanese Ministry of Finance announced plans to issue a 2-year bond worth 2.7 trillion yen on September 30 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market is facing a critical test with upcoming consumer inflation data, which could significantly impact equity prices, particularly the S&P 500 [1][5]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Investors have largely ignored negative news from the US job market, but upcoming inflation data may challenge this optimism [1][3]. - If inflation figures exceed expectations, the S&P 500 could decline by as much as 8%, potentially falling to a range of 6,000-6,200 in a downside scenario [2][7]. - Current market conditions reflect a "Goldilocks scenario," where investors anticipate favorable economic conditions that would allow for Federal Reserve rate cuts without triggering a recession [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Expectations - The market is preparing for the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, with expectations of a 0.3% monthly increase and a 2.9% year-over-year rise, slightly lower than July's 3.1% [5]. - Producer prices for August showed a 0.1% decrease, but JPMorgan economists predict an overall rise in inflation in the coming months, which historically poses challenges for equities [6]. - Rising inflation is typically a negative environment for equities, with historical data showing the S&P 500's average increase of 2% during rising inflation compared to a 12% increase during periods of cooling inflation [6].

Group 1 - The August consumer price index (CPI) is expected to show a month-over-month increase of 0.3%, leading to an annual inflation rate of 2.9% [1][2] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to proceed with interest rate cuts during its policy meeting on September 16-17, despite the inflation data [1] - Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, is projected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, consistent with July's figures [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida indicates that consumer inflation has exceeded expectations, with rising food prices spreading beyond rice, leading to increased inflationary pressures [1] Group 1: Inflation Trends - Consumer inflation in Japan is surpassing previous forecasts, indicating a shift in economic conditions [1] - The rise in food prices is no longer limited to rice, suggesting a broader impact on the overall food market [1] - The expansion of inflationary pressures may influence monetary policy decisions moving forward [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in consumer inflation in Japan is primarily driven by cost-push factors, particularly the increase in rice and food prices [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's policy board member, Junko Koeda, highlighted that the inflation is not demand-driven but rather influenced by rising costs [1] - Specific commodities, such as rice and food items, have seen significant price increases contributing to the overall inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea officials anticipate that consumer inflation will remain within a fluctuation range of around 2% [1] Group 1 - The expectation of consumer inflation stability suggests a controlled economic environment, which may influence monetary policy decisions [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the consumer inflation data for April and May in Japan exceeded expectations, indicating potential economic shifts [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan's committee member, Naoki Tamura, highlighted the unexpected rise in consumer inflation, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [1] - This inflation trend could impact consumer spending and overall economic growth in Japan [1] - The data suggests that inflationary pressures are becoming more pronounced, which could lead to adjustments in the Bank of Japan's approach to interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the transmission of tariffs to consumer inflation remains uncertain [1] Group 1 - Tariffs may have an ambiguous impact on consumer prices, complicating the inflation outlook [1] - The relationship between tariffs and inflation is not straightforward, indicating potential challenges for policymakers [1]