本周四，美国参议院第七次未能通过拨款法案，导致上周开始的政府停摆仍在持续。 当地时间周五，据媒体援引白宫一名官员表示，美国劳工部下属的劳工统计局（BLS）将"立即恢 复"对9月份消费者价格指数（CPI）数据的工作。根据BLS，该报告将于10月24日美国东部时间上午8点 30分发布，这比原定时间10月15日推迟了9天。 美国劳工部原本根据关门应急计划暂停了CPI报告的相关工作。CPI报告追踪一篮子广泛商品和服 务的价格随时间变化情况。但美国社会保障局需要第三季度的CPI数据，用于在11月1日之前计算并公 布年度生活成本调整（COLA）。通常情况下，BLS发布9月份CPI后不久，社会保障局就会公布COLA 调整。 由于美国联邦政府因资金中断而关门，劳工统计局的其他数据发布，包括非农就业报告，也未能按 原计划公布。 SHMET 网讯： 美国劳工部在联邦政府持续关门的情况下，召回部分工作人员编制一份关键的消费者通胀报告。 最新的9月CPI发布时间，也赶在了美联储10月28日至29日的FOMC政策会议前发布。投资者普遍预 期，美联储官员将再次降息，但一些决策者对此仍持谨慎态度，原因是通胀率依然明显高于目标水平。 ...

Group 1 - Investors are betting that the Bank of Japan will soon choose to raise interest rates, leading to a significant increase in bond yields, with the 10-year Japanese government bond yield reaching its highest level in 17 years [1] - On the same day, the 10-year bond yield rose by 1.5 basis points to 1.654%, while the 2-year and 30-year yields also saw increases [1] - The 10-year bond yield briefly hit 1.669%, marking a new 52-week high and the highest level since July 2008, as investors reacted to the recent Bank of Japan meeting [3] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan indicated that the economy is moderately recovering, despite some signs of weakness, and noted a mild growth in the global economy [3] - Consumer inflation in Japan rose in August compared to the previous year, with the consumer price index excluding fresh food increasing by 2.7%, although this was a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [3] - Food prices in Japan continue to surge, with an 8% year-on-year increase, and the average price of rice has approached historical highs [3] Group 3 - The Japanese Ministry of Finance announced plans to issue a 2-year bond worth 2.7 trillion yen on September 30 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market is facing a critical test with upcoming consumer inflation data, which could significantly impact equity prices, particularly the S&P 500 [1][5]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Investors have largely ignored negative news from the US job market, but upcoming inflation data may challenge this optimism [1][3]. - If inflation figures exceed expectations, the S&P 500 could decline by as much as 8%, potentially falling to a range of 6,000-6,200 in a downside scenario [2][7]. - Current market conditions reflect a "Goldilocks scenario," where investors anticipate favorable economic conditions that would allow for Federal Reserve rate cuts without triggering a recession [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Expectations - The market is preparing for the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, with expectations of a 0.3% monthly increase and a 2.9% year-over-year rise, slightly lower than July's 3.1% [5]. - Producer prices for August showed a 0.1% decrease, but JPMorgan economists predict an overall rise in inflation in the coming months, which historically poses challenges for equities [6]. - Rising inflation is typically a negative environment for equities, with historical data showing the S&P 500's average increase of 2% during rising inflation compared to a 12% increase during periods of cooling inflation [6].

Group 1 - The August consumer price index (CPI) is expected to show a month-over-month increase of 0.3%, leading to an annual inflation rate of 2.9% [1][2] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to proceed with interest rate cuts during its policy meeting on September 16-17, despite the inflation data [1] - Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, is projected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, consistent with July's figures [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida indicates that consumer inflation has exceeded expectations, with rising food prices spreading beyond rice, leading to increased inflationary pressures [1] Group 1: Inflation Trends - Consumer inflation in Japan is surpassing previous forecasts, indicating a shift in economic conditions [1] - The rise in food prices is no longer limited to rice, suggesting a broader impact on the overall food market [1] - The expansion of inflationary pressures may influence monetary policy decisions moving forward [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in consumer inflation in Japan is primarily driven by cost-push factors, particularly the increase in rice and food prices [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's policy board member, Junko Koeda, highlighted that the inflation is not demand-driven but rather influenced by rising costs [1] - Specific commodities, such as rice and food items, have seen significant price increases contributing to the overall inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea officials anticipate that consumer inflation will remain within a fluctuation range of around 2% [1] Group 1 - The expectation of consumer inflation stability suggests a controlled economic environment, which may influence monetary policy decisions [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the consumer inflation data for April and May in Japan exceeded expectations, indicating potential economic shifts [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan's committee member, Naoki Tamura, highlighted the unexpected rise in consumer inflation, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [1] - This inflation trend could impact consumer spending and overall economic growth in Japan [1] - The data suggests that inflationary pressures are becoming more pronounced, which could lead to adjustments in the Bank of Japan's approach to interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the transmission of tariffs to consumer inflation remains uncertain [1] Group 1 - Tariffs may have an ambiguous impact on consumer prices, complicating the inflation outlook [1] - The relationship between tariffs and inflation is not straightforward, indicating potential challenges for policymakers [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's consumer inflation is expected to rise further in May as the effects of government measures to curb inflation diminish [1] Group 1: Inflation Trends - In April, consumer inflation excluding volatile fresh food rose by 3.5% year-on-year, up from 3.2% in March [1] - The economist Takeshi Minami noted that while imported inflation is gradually decreasing, food prices may remain high due to global abnormal weather patterns and ongoing rice supply shortages [1] Group 2: Future Projections - If the excessive weakness of the yen is corrected and rice prices begin to decline, consumer prices may fall below the Bank of Japan's 2% target by early 2026 [1]