Core Viewpoint - Lenovo Group reported a strong performance in Q1 of the 2025/26 fiscal year, with revenue reaching 136.2 billion RMB, a 22% year-on-year increase, marking a historical high for the first fiscal quarter [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue for the first quarter increased by 22% year-on-year to 136.2 billion RMB, achieving a historical high for the first fiscal quarter [1] - Net profit under non-Hong Kong Financial Reporting Standards grew by 22% to 2.816 billion RMB, while profit under Hong Kong Financial Reporting Standards doubled to 3.66 billion RMB, indicating significant enhancement in profitability [1] - All main business segments experienced double-digit growth, with non-PC business revenue accounting for 47% of total revenue [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Chinese economy showed resilience, with GDP growth of 5.2% in Q2 2025 and 5.3% in the first half of the year, leading to a recovery in the PC market after 11 quarters of contraction, with a 10% year-on-year increase in shipments [2] - The AI industry in China is entering a critical application phase, with a complete industrial system being formed, driving rapid growth in AI applications and narrowing the gap with the US [2] Group 3: Business Segments - The Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) saw over 17% revenue growth in China, with AI PCs achieving a 27% penetration rate in the notebook market, and smartphone business growing by 87% [3] - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) led global performance with over 70% revenue growth in China, and server revenue increased by over 80% [3] - The Solutions and Services Group (SSG) also reported over 20% growth in both revenue and profit in China [3] Group 4: Strategic Positioning - Lenovo employs a "China + N" strategy, leveraging China as a base while expanding into Southeast Asia, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Mexico, and Europe, maintaining 80% of production capacity in China [3] - The company benefits from a robust supply chain ecosystem, high production efficiency, and a skilled workforce in China, which is considered a vital global resource [3] - Lenovo's global manufacturing and R&D presence, with 80% of production and 70% of R&D personnel based in China, supports its ability to respond quickly to market demands and enhance customer satisfaction [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][10] Core Views - The company's mixed AI strategy is driving significant performance growth and diversification [1] - The projected earnings per share for fiscal years 25/26, 26/27, and 27/28 are $0.13, $0.15, and $0.18 respectively, with an upward revision in revenue forecasts [2][10] - The target price is set at HKD 15.97 based on a comparable company PE valuation of 15.44 times for 2025 [2][10] Financial Performance Summary - For FY23A, the company reported revenue of 56,895 million, with a year-on-year decline of 8%. Revenue is expected to grow to 69,108 million in FY24A, reflecting a 21% increase [4] - Operating profit for FY23A was 2,037 million, down 24% year-on-year, but is projected to rise to 2,195 million in FY24A, an 8% increase [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for FY23A was 1,041 million, a decrease of 35%, with a forecasted increase to 1,415 million in FY24A, a 36% growth [4] - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 16.3% for FY26E and FY27E, while net margin is projected to improve from 1.8% in FY23A to 2.5% in FY27E [4] - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to increase from 18.6% in FY23 to 26.7% in FY27 [4] Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company has solidified its global leadership in the smart devices sector, with a 24% market share in personal computers, reflecting a 1 percentage point increase [9] - The infrastructure solutions business has shown strong growth, with a 63% year-on-year increase in revenue, reaching 145 billion [9] - The AI server business is also experiencing rapid growth, with a 68% increase in revenue from liquid cooling solutions [9]

Core Viewpoint - Lenovo Group reported a seemingly contradictory financial performance for Q4 of the fiscal year 2024/2025, with revenue increasing by 23% year-on-year to $17 billion, a record high, while net profit plummeted by 64% to $0.9 billion, raising market concerns. However, this profit fluctuation is attributed to "technical adjustments" under accounting standards, not reflecting the company's actual operational quality [1]. Financial Performance Analysis - The significant variable causing the net profit fluctuation is the issuance of three-year warrants in January 2025, which must be measured at fair value according to Hong Kong accounting standards, impacting the current profit and loss statement negatively by $1.18 billion [2]. - The impact of this fair value change is characterized by two aspects: it is a non-cash adjustment that does not affect actual cash flow, and its volatility is uncontrollable, influenced by stock prices, interest rates, and volatility, unrelated to actual business operations [3]. Example of Accounting Treatment - An illustrative example is provided where a hypothetical company issues warrants, leading to a situation where an increase in stock price results in a corresponding increase in the fair value of the warrants, thus creating a paper loss that does not affect cash flow but reduces reported net profit [4][5][6]. Non-HKFRS Metrics - To mitigate the impact of financial instrument valuation fluctuations, Lenovo emphasized its non-HKFRS net profit, which, after excluding the impact of warrants, increased by 25% year-on-year to $2.78 billion, with an annual growth rate of 36%. This approach aligns with practices in the tech industry, where companies often disclose adjusted metrics to reflect operational realities more accurately [7][8]. Business Performance Resilience - Excluding the aforementioned financial adjustments, Lenovo's core business performance shows strong resilience, with all main business segments achieving double-digit revenue growth in Q4, totaling $17 billion (approximately 123.5 billion RMB), a 23% year-on-year increase [9]. - The Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) reported revenue of 85.93 billion RMB, a 13% increase, with a PC market share of 23.8%. The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) saw a revenue increase of 63% to nearly 30 billion RMB, while the Solutions and Services Group (SSG) achieved over 15.6 billion RMB in revenue, an 18% increase, with a record operating profit margin of 23% [9][10]. Strategic Insights - The collective double-digit growth across three business segments validates the effectiveness of Lenovo's "devices + infrastructure + services" synergy and its hybrid AI strategy. This growth is particularly notable against a backdrop of cautious global IT spending, indicating that Lenovo's investments in AI servers and hybrid cloud solutions are beginning to yield results [10].