[Table_Reportdate] 2026年03月04日 标配 业 月 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 联系人 董经纬 djwei@longone.com.cn 联系人 方逸洋 fyy@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -40% -22% -5% 13% 31% 48% 66% 25-02 25-05 25-08 25-11 申万行业指数:电子(0727) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.英伟达业绩继续超预期，关注GTC 大会新品发布——电子行业周报 2026/2/23-2026/3/1 2.四大CSP厂商资本开支超预期，需 求传导推动功率半导体价格上涨— —电子行业周报2026/2/2-2026/2/8 3.算力需求驱动芯片涨价，头部CSP 资本开支印证AI主线——半导体行 业1月份月报 [Table_NewTitle 半导体行业涨价蔓延未止，关注 ] AI驱动 下细分赛道结构性机会 ——半导体行业2月份月报 与增长。（2）贵金属等原材料价格上升、下 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's data business is expected to continue high growth, with projected revenue exceeding 40 billion in 2025, nearly doubling from previous figures. AI servers will account for over 70% of this revenue, and the switch business is anticipated to achieve over 2.5 billion in revenue, reflecting significant year-on-year growth. The company has established itself as a core supplier for three major clients and is experiencing doubled growth in the industry client market. The early layout in supernode products is expected to yield scale advantages by 2026, with self-owned production capacity ensuring resource availability for clients [4] - The company is leveraging its platform advantages to create a diversified layout across consumer-grade, industrial-grade, embodied intelligence, and data collection sectors. Robotics is a core emerging business under the company's 3+N+3 strategy, with significant differentiation barriers established through AI computing hardware and ODM full-stack R&D capabilities. The company has made acquisitions to enter the home cleaning robot market and anticipates mass production of various robotic products by 2026 [5] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 170.9 billion in 2025, 205.2 billion in 2026, and 240.1 billion in 2027. Corresponding net profits are expected to be 4 billion, 5.3 billion, and 7 billion respectively. The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on these projections [6] - The financial outlook indicates a revenue growth rate of 55.53% in 2025, followed by 20.05% in 2026 and 17.05% in 2027. The net profit growth rates are projected at 37.94% for 2025, 31.31% for 2026, and 32.77% for 2027 [9][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see significant growth in its data business, with projected revenue exceeding 40 billion in 2025, nearly doubling from previous figures. AI servers are anticipated to account for over 70% of this revenue, with switch revenue also expected to see substantial growth, surpassing 2.5 billion. The company has established itself as a core supplier for three major clients and is experiencing rapid growth in the industry client market [4] - The company is leveraging its platform advantages to create a diversified business model that includes consumer-grade, industrial-grade, embodied intelligence, and data collection. The robotics segment is a key focus, with plans for mass production of various robotic products, including household cleaning robots and humanoid robots, expected to launch in 2026 [5] - Revenue projections for the company are set at 170.9 billion, 205.2 billion, and 240.1 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to be 4 billion, 5.3 billion, and 7 billion for the same years. The "Buy" rating is maintained based on these forecasts [6] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected at 109.9 billion, with a growth rate of 28.76%. For 2025, revenue is expected to reach 170.9 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 55.53%. The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 4 billion, with a growth rate of 37.94% [9][12] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 2.88 in 2024 to 3.97 in 2025, and further to 5.22 in 2026, indicating a strong upward trend in profitability [9][12] - The company’s asset-liability ratio is currently at 70%, expected to decrease to 66.2% by 2025, indicating improved financial stability [12]

AI 算力龙头启航，成长确定性凸显 工业富联(601138) 工业富联（601138.SH）首次覆盖报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 杨林(分析师) | 021-23183969 | yanglin2@gtht.com | S0880525040027 | | 舒迪(分析师) | 021-38676666 | shudi@gtht.com | S0880521070002 | | 余伟民(分析师) | 010-50949926 | yuweimin@gtht.com | S0880525040028 | | 吕浦源(分析师) | 021-23183822 | lvpuyuan@gtht.com | S0880525050002 | 本报告导读： 公司作为全球 AI 算力基础设施核心供应商，凭借精密制造基因与全产业链布局，在 AI 服务器、高速交换机与端侧 AI 领域形成协同，随着全球 AI 资本开支浪潮及 GB200/300 等新平台放量，公司成长动能有望持续强化。 投资要点： | [Table_Fina ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced significant declines, with the Dow Jones dropping 521 points (1.05%) to close at 48,977.92 points, and the Nasdaq falling 0.92% to 22,668.21 points, marking the largest monthly declines since March 2025 [1] - February saw the Nasdaq index plummet 3.38% and the S&P 500 decrease by 0.87%, both recording their largest single-month declines in a year [1] Nvidia's Market Impact - Nvidia's stock fell 4.16% to $177.19, resulting in a market cap loss of $187.1 billion in one day, and a staggering $446.4 billion over two trading days, equivalent to the total market cap of a major bank [3] - Despite Nvidia reporting a record Q4 revenue of $68.1 billion (up 73% YoY) and a net profit of $43 billion (up 94% YoY), the stock price plummeted, indicating a disconnect between strong earnings and market performance [3] Investor Sentiment and Concerns - Analysts noted that the sell-off reflects profit-taking after positive earnings, alongside skepticism about the sustainability of massive capital expenditures by cloud service providers in the AI sector [4] - Concerns arose regarding whether the substantial investments in AI by tech giants would yield returns, particularly as Nvidia's growth may face limits if customer demand slows [4] CoreWeave's Financial Struggles - CoreWeave, a cloud AI computing rental giant, saw its stock drop over 22% after reporting a Q4 net loss that expanded from $51 million to $452 million YoY, alongside a capital expenditure plan of $30-35 billion for 2026, significantly higher than the previous year's $10.3 billion [4] OpenAI's Funding and Market Reaction - OpenAI announced a new funding round of $110 billion, raising its pre-money valuation to $730 billion, with major investments from Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank [5] - Despite this funding, market sentiment remained negative, highlighting the harsh reality of the "burning cash" competition among AI giants [5] Financial Sector Impact - The KBW Bank Index fell 4.85%, marking its largest single-day drop since April of the previous year, with major banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley experiencing significant declines [5] - The financial sector's downturn was exacerbated by fears stemming from the collapse of a UK mortgage company, raising concerns about systemic risks in the private credit market [7] Broader Market Trends - The market displayed a stark divide, with tech giants generally declining while some AI-related stocks surged, such as Dell Technologies, which rose 21.93% due to expected doubling of AI server revenue [8] - The overall sentiment shifted towards safe-haven assets like gold and silver, with gold prices nearing $5,280 per ounce and silver rising 6.15% [10] Employment Concerns in AI - The announcement of significant layoffs by Block, a fintech company, due to AI-driven productivity improvements raised alarms about AI's potential impact on employment across sectors, including finance [7] Conclusion - The market turmoil initiated by Nvidia's stock decline reflects a broader reassessment of the AI investment landscape, with implications for both technology and financial sectors as investors grapple with the sustainability of growth in a rapidly changing environment [12]

证券研究报告 | 2026年2月29日 AI周报： AI快速发展，AI HALO资产价值彰显 行业研究 · 行业专题 计算机&通信 投资评级：优于大市（维持评级） 证券分析师：熊莉 021-61761067 xiongli1@guosen.com.cn S0980519030002 证券分析师：艾宪 0755-22941051 aixian@guosen.com.cn S0980524090001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 AI HALO：AI领域的重资产、低淘汰率 图1：美国基建股指数价格波动（25年1月-26年2月） 资料来源：Wind，国信证券经济研究所整理 n AI HALO：AI领域的重资产、低淘汰率。 Ø 定义：HALO = Heavy Assets（重资产）+ Low Obsolescence（低淘汰率）。其中，重资产是指其商业模式建立在庞大的实物资本基础之上，具有很高 复制壁垒（例如成本、监管、建设时间、工程复杂性、网络整合难度等）的资产；低淘汰率是指资产的经济相关性能够穿越技术周期而持久存在（即 商业模式、资产是刚需，不会因AI革命而被取代）。 Ø 代表资产：HALO代表 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年2月29日 AI周报： AI快速发展，AI HALO资产价值彰显 行业研究 · 行业专题 计算机&通信 投资评级：优于大市（维持评级） 证券分析师：熊莉 021-61761067 xiongli1@guosen.com.cn S0980519030002 证券分析师：艾宪 0755-22941051 aixian@guosen.com.cn S0980524090001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 AI HALO：AI领域的重资产、低淘汰率 图1：美国基建股指数价格波动（25年1月-26年2月） 资料来源：Wind，国信证券经济研究所整理 资料来源：Wind，国信证券经济研究所整理 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 图2：美国SaaS指数价格波动（25年1月-26年2月） n AI HALO：AI领域的重资产、低淘汰率。 Ø 定义：HALO = Heavy Assets（重资产）+ Low Obsolescence（低淘汰率）。其中，重资产是指其商业模式建立在庞大的实物资本基础之上，具有很高 复制壁垒（例如成本、监管、建设时间、工程复杂性、网络整合难度 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dell Technologies' stock surged significantly on February 27, 2026, driven by strong Q4 and full-year fiscal 2026 earnings and robust guidance for fiscal 2027, with notable growth in AI server business exceeding market expectations [1] Financial Performance - Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue reached $33.4 billion, a 39% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations of $31.7 billion [2] - Non-GAAP earnings per share were $3.89, up 45% year-over-year, exceeding forecasts [2] - Full-year revenue for fiscal 2026 was $113.5 billion, a 19% increase, setting a new record [2] - AI-optimized server revenue in Q4 was $9 billion, a staggering 342% year-over-year growth, becoming the core growth driver [2] - The company anticipates AI server revenue to double to approximately $50 billion in fiscal 2027, reflecting a 103% year-over-year increase [2] - As of the beginning of fiscal 2027, AI-related backlog orders reached $43 billion, a historical high [2] - The company announced an increase of $10 billion in stock repurchase authorization and a 20% increase in cash dividends, enhancing shareholder returns [2] Stock Performance - Following the earnings release, Dell's stock rose over 10% in pre-market trading on February 27, closing with a 21.93% increase, with a trading volume of approximately $4.83 billion, significantly above recent averages [3] - This performance contrasts with the broader market, as the Dow Jones index fell by 1.05%, indicating positive market sentiment towards Dell's AI growth prospects [3] Industry Environment - Analysts indicate that demand for AI data centers remains strong, with Dell being a key partner to chip manufacturers like NVIDIA, providing technological advantages and visibility in orders that support short-term growth [4] - However, it is noted that tight supply of storage chips may pose challenges to traditional PC business [4]

Core Insights - Dell's stock surged 19% following the release of its earnings report, which exceeded expectations across key metrics, receiving positive feedback from Wall Street analysts [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Dell reported record AI server orders of $34.1 billion and AI server shipments of $9.5 billion, with a record AI backlog of $43 billion at the end of the quarter [2]. - The fourth-quarter revenue grew by 39% year-over-year, surpassing the company's guidance, while earnings per share increased by 45% due to improved profit margins [2]. - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) saw significant growth of 73% year-over-year, with quarterly revenue reaching a record $19.6 billion, marking eight consecutive quarters of double-digit growth [3]. Group 2: Future Guidance - For fiscal year 2027, Dell's AI server revenue guidance is projected to double to approximately $50 billion, significantly exceeding market consensus expectations of around $36 billion [2]. - The company anticipates revenue growth of over 25% for fiscal year 2027, with AI revenue expected to double, while core server/storage is projected to grow in the low single digits [2]. - Analysts estimate earnings per share for fiscal year 2027 at $10.97, which is below the management's guidance of $12.90, raising questions about the sustainability of profit margin expansion amid significant price increases [3].

Core Viewpoint - Dell Technologies (DELL.US) experienced a significant stock increase of over 16%, reaching a year-high of $142.17, driven by strong demand for AI servers and a financial outlook that exceeded Wall Street expectations [1] Financial Performance - In the fourth quarter, Dell reported a record total revenue of $33.4 billion, a year-over-year increase of 39%, surpassing market expectations of $31.73 billion [1] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $3.89, exceeding the anticipated $3.53 [1] Future Outlook - For fiscal year 2027, Dell provided an optimistic revenue forecast of $138 billion to $142 billion, significantly higher than analyst predictions of $125.54 billion [1] - Adjusted EPS for fiscal year 2027 is projected to be $12.90, also above the expected $11.59 [1] Shareholder Returns - The company announced a 20% increase in cash dividends and authorized an additional $10 billion stock buyback program [1] AI Server Revenue - Dell anticipates AI server revenue to reach approximately $50 billion in the current fiscal year ending January 2027, representing a year-over-year growth of 103% [1] - The COO, Jeff Clarke, highlighted that the opportunities presented by AI are reshaping the company, with a record backlog of $43 billion in orders, demonstrating the effectiveness of their engineering leadership and differentiated AI solutions [1]