（来源：格隆汇APP） 来源：格隆汇 | 贝隆行业研究 数据支持 | 勾股大数据（www.gogudata.com） 如果投资者继续用"全球最大的个人电脑制造商"来看待联想集团，他们很可能会错过AI狂潮中这个举足 轻重的玩家。全球投资者、尤其是中国内地的投资者们习惯用一种根深蒂固的旧模型来对联想集团进行 整体估值，即基于PC业务的业绩表现，而传统PC硬件属于具有强周期性的相对低毛利业务。 联想集团寻求矫正投资者们的旧观念，但最大的敌人却是自己。毕竟，它霸占全球PC市场市占率第一 的位置已经很多年了。在这个竞争极其激烈的红海市场中，其市占率本就已经高到不可思议，但却总能 继续创出新高。在最新的一个财季中，这个数字已经攀升至25.5%。 显然，这很大程度上让公众投资者忽视了联想集团非PC业务的业绩表现，即便这些业务所创造的营收 在数年之前就已占到公司总营收的近一半。当然，非PC业务营收比例的提高并不足以解释联想集团为 何在过去连续多个财季实现了营收与利润的高增长，尤其是毛利率的持续提升帮助其净利增速有两个财 季甚至超过了100%。 性感的故事早已发生，AI技术浪潮给这家企业带来了历史性机遇。联想集团是最早几家真正 ...

Core Insights - Lenovo Group is transitioning from being perceived solely as the world's largest PC manufacturer to a significant player in the AI sector, with its AI business now accounting for 30% of total revenue [2][27] - The company aims to reshape investor perceptions by highlighting its non-PC business growth, which has contributed to substantial revenue and profit increases, including a net profit growth rate exceeding 100% in some quarters [1][27] - Lenovo's hybrid AI strategy positions it as a leading provider of edge AI solutions, integrating AI capabilities across consumer and enterprise segments [4][12] Group 1: Business Transformation - Lenovo is fundamentally transforming from a PC-centric company to an AI-focused enterprise, with AI-related services becoming a major revenue driver [21][27] - The company’s revenue sources are shifting from hardware sales to AI infrastructure and service solutions, indicating a move towards a recurring revenue model [21][27] - The three main business segments—Intelligent Devices Group (IDG), Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG), and Solutions and Services Group (SSG)—are evolving in their roles, with SSG becoming a key driver of high-margin growth [21][22] Group 2: Financial Performance - Non-PC business revenue has steadily increased, reaching nearly 47% of total revenue, reflecting a clear shift towards AI-related infrastructure and services [22][23] - The ISG and SSG segments are experiencing significant growth, with ISG revenue increasing by 24% and SSG achieving a profit margin of over 22% [23][24] - AI-driven revenue growth is evident, with AI PC sales increasing by 197% and AI server revenue more than doubling, showcasing strong demand for AI capabilities [24][25][26] Group 3: Strategic Positioning - Lenovo's hybrid AI strategy allows it to serve as a critical integrator in the AI value chain, bridging the gap between hardware and AI services [7][19] - The company is positioned to control the "terminal entry" in the AI ecosystem, which is crucial for user interaction and data flow [18][19] - By embedding AI capabilities into its devices, Lenovo aims to create a personalized AI experience for users, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [11][12]

作者 | 贝隆行业研究 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 如果投资者继续用 "全球最大的个人电脑制造商"来看待联想集团，他们很可能会错过AI狂潮中这个举足轻重的玩家。全球投资者、尤其是中国 内地的投资者们习惯用一种根深蒂固的旧模型来对联想集团进行整体估值，即基于PC业务的业绩表现，而传统PC硬件属于具有强周期性的相 对低毛利业务。 联想集团寻求矫正投资者们的旧观念，但最大的敌人却是自己。毕竟，它霸占全球 PC市场市占率第一的位置已经很多年了。在这个竞争极其 激烈的红海市场中，其市占率本就已经高到 不可思议 ，但却总能继续创出新高。在最新的一个 财季 中，这个数字已经攀升至 25.5%。 显然，这很大程度上让公众投资者忽视了联想集团 非 PC业务 的业绩表现，即便这些业务所创造的营收在数年之前就已占到公司总营收的近一 半。当然，非 PC业务营收比例的提高并不足以解释联想集团为何在过去连续多个财季实现了营收与利润的高增长，尤其是毛利率的持续提升 帮助其净利增速有两个财季甚至超过了100%。 性感的故事早已发生， AI技术浪潮给这家企业带来了历史性机遇。联想集团是最早几家真正抓住AI技 ...

Group 1 - Lenovo Group and Beijing Bank signed a strategic cooperation agreement to enhance collaboration in artificial intelligence and promote its benefits across various industries and individuals [1][3] - Beijing Bank will provide comprehensive financial support to Lenovo, including technology finance, merger finance, supply chain finance, cross-border finance, and personal finance [3] - Lenovo's hybrid AI strategy aims to make AI more accessible, with a focus on developing diverse AI-native terminal products and customized enterprise intelligent solutions to improve efficiency and innovation [3] Group 2 - The partnership will involve joint development of enterprise-level products and services tailored to mutual customer needs, as well as long-term ecological cooperation with individual customers [3]

Group 1 - The State Council issued an opinion on the implementation of "Artificial Intelligence+" action, aiming for deep integration of AI with six key areas by 2027, with over 70% application penetration of new intelligent terminals and intelligent agents [2] - By 2030, AI is expected to fully empower high-quality development, with over 90% application penetration of new intelligent terminals and intelligent agents, making the intelligent economy a significant growth driver for China's economy [2] - Lenovo Group launched a super intelligent agent aimed at individuals, enterprises, and cities, shifting the human-machine relationship from "humans adapting to machines" to "machines serving humans" [2][3] Group 2 - In the personal intelligence sector, Lenovo introduced the Tianxi personal super intelligent agent, embedded in various AI terminals, creating a cross-platform and interconnected AI experience [3] - Since its launch in May 2025, Tianxi has been integrated into Lenovo's AI PCs, smartphones, and tablets, significantly boosting sales, with over 1 million units sold in the previous fiscal year [5] - In the enterprise intelligence domain, Lenovo's Lexiang super intelligent agent enhances organizational intelligence by autonomously completing tasks across various business functions, improving operational efficiency [6] Group 3 - The Lexiang intelligent agent has reduced content production costs by 25% and shortened product configuration time from 12 minutes to 2 minutes, with a goal of replacing 30% of tier-four business processes with intelligent agents this year [6] - In the urban super intelligent agent sector, Lenovo's architecture promotes collaborative governance and operation in smart cities, with strategic partnerships established in various cities [8] - Lenovo has also launched infrastructure support actions, including heterogeneous computing platforms and liquid cooling solutions, to provide computational support for AI development [8]

Core Viewpoint - Lenovo Group achieved significant growth in its China operations for the first quarter of the 2025/26 fiscal year, with both revenue and profit seeing substantial increases, driven by a strong focus on AI strategies and a shift towards non-PC business segments [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Lenovo's China operations reported a 36% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 43% increase in profit for the first fiscal quarter [1]. - Non-PC business revenue surpassed 54% of total revenue, marking a historic milestone for the company [1]. - The Intelligent Device Group (IDG) maintained a high market share in PCs, achieving record highs during the same period [1]. - The Intelligent Infrastructure Group (ISG) saw a 72% year-on-year revenue growth, with server revenue increasing by 81% [1]. - The Solutions and Services Group (SSG) also reported over 20% year-on-year growth in both revenue and profit [1]. Group 2: AI Strategy and Innovations - Lenovo is heavily investing in personal intelligence through the Tianxi personal super-intelligent system, which enhances the IDG business [2]. - The Tianxi system was officially launched in May and has been integrated into Lenovo's personal cloud, facilitating a new generation of human-computer interaction [2]. - Lenovo's AI PCs sold over 1 million units in the previous fiscal year, with sales in the current quarter nearing last year's total, accounting for over one-third of total notebook sales in China [2]. - In enterprise intelligence, Lenovo is innovating in AI infrastructure and solutions, introducing liquid cooling technologies and the Lenovo Wanquan AI all-in-one machine, which achieves a throughput of over 12,000 tokens per second [2]. Group 3: Market Expansion and Services - Lenovo is expanding its offerings for government and enterprise clients with solutions like xCloud smart cloud, ESG, and full-cycle AI services [3]. - For small and medium-sized enterprises, Lenovo is leveraging the Baiying intelligent system to enhance IT operations, AI office tasks, and AI marketing, aiming for cost reduction and efficiency improvements [3].

Core Viewpoint - Lenovo Group reported strong financial results for Q2 2025, with revenue of $18.83 billion, a 22% increase year-over-year, and a net profit of $5.38 billion, up 112% from the previous year [2][3]. Financial Performance - Revenue for Q2 2025 reached $18.83 billion, compared to $15.447 billion in the same period last year, marking a 22% growth [2]. - Operating profit was $785 million, up 59% from $494 million year-over-year [2]. - Net profit for the period was $538 million, a significant increase from $253 million in the previous year, reflecting a 112% growth [2]. - Non-Hong Kong Financial Reporting Standards indicated a profit attributable to equity holders of $389 million, also a 22% increase [2]. Business Strategy and Market Position - The company emphasized maintaining competitiveness and market share despite challenges from tariffs and political-economic factors [5][8]. - Lenovo has established a global manufacturing footprint with over 30 manufacturing bases in more than ten countries, enabling a "global resources, local delivery" model [8]. - The company highlighted China as a key manufacturing hub due to its cost advantages compared to other regions [8]. Growth Drivers - Lenovo's diverse business segments contributed to growth, with non-PC business revenue accounting for 47% of total revenue [4]. - The personal computer segment saw a 20% growth, the fastest in 15 quarters, driven by strong demand for AI PCs, which now represent nearly one-third of all PC sales [6][12]. - AI-driven products, including AI PCs and servers, are significant growth engines, with AI server revenue increasing by over 155% [7]. Future Outlook - The company expects continued high single-digit market growth in the PC sector, driven by factors such as the transition to Windows 11 and the increasing demand for AI PCs [12]. - Lenovo is committed to increasing R&D investments, particularly in AI technologies, to enhance product competitiveness [9]. - The mixed AI strategy aims to integrate public and private AI solutions, enhancing user experience and operational efficiency across various sectors [13][14]. Investor Communication - The company plans to focus on non-Hong Kong Financial Reporting Standards for a clearer reflection of operational performance, especially in light of recent financial instruments affecting reported profits [10]. - Lenovo's strategic execution and supply chain capabilities are positioned to drive growth despite external uncertainties, with a focus on communicating progress to investors [16].

Core Viewpoint - Lenovo Group reported a strong performance in Q1 of the 2025/26 fiscal year, with revenue reaching 136.2 billion RMB, a 22% year-on-year increase, marking a historical high for the first fiscal quarter [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue for the first quarter increased by 22% year-on-year to 136.2 billion RMB, achieving a historical high for the first fiscal quarter [1] - Net profit under non-Hong Kong Financial Reporting Standards grew by 22% to 2.816 billion RMB, while profit under Hong Kong Financial Reporting Standards doubled to 3.66 billion RMB, indicating significant enhancement in profitability [1] - All main business segments experienced double-digit growth, with non-PC business revenue accounting for 47% of total revenue [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Chinese economy showed resilience, with GDP growth of 5.2% in Q2 2025 and 5.3% in the first half of the year, leading to a recovery in the PC market after 11 quarters of contraction, with a 10% year-on-year increase in shipments [2] - The AI industry in China is entering a critical application phase, with a complete industrial system being formed, driving rapid growth in AI applications and narrowing the gap with the US [2] Group 3: Business Segments - The Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) saw over 17% revenue growth in China, with AI PCs achieving a 27% penetration rate in the notebook market, and smartphone business growing by 87% [3] - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) led global performance with over 70% revenue growth in China, and server revenue increased by over 80% [3] - The Solutions and Services Group (SSG) also reported over 20% growth in both revenue and profit in China [3] Group 4: Strategic Positioning - Lenovo employs a "China + N" strategy, leveraging China as a base while expanding into Southeast Asia, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Mexico, and Europe, maintaining 80% of production capacity in China [3] - The company benefits from a robust supply chain ecosystem, high production efficiency, and a skilled workforce in China, which is considered a vital global resource [3] - Lenovo's global manufacturing and R&D presence, with 80% of production and 70% of R&D personnel based in China, supports its ability to respond quickly to market demands and enhance customer satisfaction [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][10] Core Views - The company's mixed AI strategy is driving significant performance growth and diversification [1] - The projected earnings per share for fiscal years 25/26, 26/27, and 27/28 are $0.13, $0.15, and $0.18 respectively, with an upward revision in revenue forecasts [2][10] - The target price is set at HKD 15.97 based on a comparable company PE valuation of 15.44 times for 2025 [2][10] Financial Performance Summary - For FY23A, the company reported revenue of 56,895 million, with a year-on-year decline of 8%. Revenue is expected to grow to 69,108 million in FY24A, reflecting a 21% increase [4] - Operating profit for FY23A was 2,037 million, down 24% year-on-year, but is projected to rise to 2,195 million in FY24A, an 8% increase [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for FY23A was 1,041 million, a decrease of 35%, with a forecasted increase to 1,415 million in FY24A, a 36% growth [4] - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 16.3% for FY26E and FY27E, while net margin is projected to improve from 1.8% in FY23A to 2.5% in FY27E [4] - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to increase from 18.6% in FY23 to 26.7% in FY27 [4] Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company has solidified its global leadership in the smart devices sector, with a 24% market share in personal computers, reflecting a 1 percentage point increase [9] - The infrastructure solutions business has shown strong growth, with a 63% year-on-year increase in revenue, reaching 145 billion [9] - The AI server business is also experiencing rapid growth, with a 68% increase in revenue from liquid cooling solutions [9]

Core Viewpoint - Lenovo Group reported a seemingly contradictory financial performance for Q4 of the fiscal year 2024/2025, with revenue increasing by 23% year-on-year to $17 billion, a record high, while net profit plummeted by 64% to $0.9 billion, raising market concerns. However, this profit fluctuation is attributed to "technical adjustments" under accounting standards, not reflecting the company's actual operational quality [1]. Financial Performance Analysis - The significant variable causing the net profit fluctuation is the issuance of three-year warrants in January 2025, which must be measured at fair value according to Hong Kong accounting standards, impacting the current profit and loss statement negatively by $1.18 billion [2]. - The impact of this fair value change is characterized by two aspects: it is a non-cash adjustment that does not affect actual cash flow, and its volatility is uncontrollable, influenced by stock prices, interest rates, and volatility, unrelated to actual business operations [3]. Example of Accounting Treatment - An illustrative example is provided where a hypothetical company issues warrants, leading to a situation where an increase in stock price results in a corresponding increase in the fair value of the warrants, thus creating a paper loss that does not affect cash flow but reduces reported net profit [4][5][6]. Non-HKFRS Metrics - To mitigate the impact of financial instrument valuation fluctuations, Lenovo emphasized its non-HKFRS net profit, which, after excluding the impact of warrants, increased by 25% year-on-year to $2.78 billion, with an annual growth rate of 36%. This approach aligns with practices in the tech industry, where companies often disclose adjusted metrics to reflect operational realities more accurately [7][8]. Business Performance Resilience - Excluding the aforementioned financial adjustments, Lenovo's core business performance shows strong resilience, with all main business segments achieving double-digit revenue growth in Q4, totaling $17 billion (approximately 123.5 billion RMB), a 23% year-on-year increase [9]. - The Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) reported revenue of 85.93 billion RMB, a 13% increase, with a PC market share of 23.8%. The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) saw a revenue increase of 63% to nearly 30 billion RMB, while the Solutions and Services Group (SSG) achieved over 15.6 billion RMB in revenue, an 18% increase, with a record operating profit margin of 23% [9][10]. Strategic Insights - The collective double-digit growth across three business segments validates the effectiveness of Lenovo's "devices + infrastructure + services" synergy and its hybrid AI strategy. This growth is particularly notable against a backdrop of cautious global IT spending, indicating that Lenovo's investments in AI servers and hybrid cloud solutions are beginning to yield results [10].