Report Overview - The report is the commodity research morning report of Guotai Junan Futures on July 3, 2025, covering multiple agricultural products such as palm oil, soybean meal, and corn [1][2] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - Palm oil: Positive sentiment in US soybean oil drives up international oil prices [2][4] - Soybean oil: Lack of weather speculation on US soybeans results in a lack of driving force [2][4] - Soybean meal: Overnight rise in US soybeans may lead to a rebound in domestic soybean meal [2][9] - Soybean: The rebound in the soybean market may drive up the futures price [2][9] - Corn: Expected to trade in a range [2][12] - Sugar: Likely to be weak [2][15] - Cotton: Futures prices are supported by optimistic market sentiment [2][18] - Eggs: As the peak season approaches, the number of culled chickens is difficult to increase [2][24] - Hogs: Short - term sentiment is strong [2][26] - Peanuts: There is support at the lower level [2][32] Summary by Category Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures prices all rose, with palm oil up 1.25% during the day and 0.47% at night; soybean oil up 0.58% during the day and unchanged at night; rapeseed oil up 1.50% during the day and 0.30% at night. Malaysian palm oil and CBOT soybean oil also showed significant increases [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia's 2024/25 palm oil production is expected to be 48.8 million tons, unchanged from the previous forecast; Malaysia's production is expected to increase slightly. Global palm oil imports in 2024/25 are expected to be 42.1 million tons, 1.2% higher than last month's forecast and 0.7% higher than 2023/24. Crude oil price fluctuations due to the Israel - Iran conflict have affected the vegetable oil market [5][6] - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Tracking**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose 1.97%, and domestic soybean meal and soybean futures may follow the upward trend. The trading volume of domestic soybean meal increased significantly, and the inventory also rose [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 2, CBOT soybeans rose due to active bargain - hunting and a surge in soybean oil. Market rumors about potential progress in China - US trade negotiations also influenced the market, but the rumors could not be confirmed. The ideal weather in the US Midwest continued to put pressure on prices [9][11] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of soybean meal and soybean are both +1, indicating a relatively strong outlook [11] Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: Corn futures prices showed a slight decline during the day and a small increase at night. The trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased. The basis of the main contract was 17 yuan/ton [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn port prices remained stable, while North China prices rose slightly. The prices of substitute grains such as sorghum and barley were also reported [13] - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [14] Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: The original sugar price was 15.5 cents/pound, down 0.2 cents; the mainstream spot price was 6080 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the futures main contract price was 5766 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [15] - **Macro and Industry News**: The New York raw sugar July contract fell sharply before expiration. Brazil's central - southern MIX increased significantly year - on - year. The USDA expects global sugar production to increase by 4.73% in the 25/26 season. Brazil's May exports decreased by 20% year - on - year, while China's May imports were 350,000 tons [15] - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is - 1, indicating a weak outlook [17] Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: Cotton futures prices rose slightly, with the domestic main contract up 0.44% during the day and 0.04% at night. ICE cotton also rose due to overall market optimism. The spot market was mostly quiet, and the basis remained stable [18][19][20] - **Macro and Industry News**: The cotton spot trading was mostly sluggish, and the basis remained stable. The cotton yarn market was weak, with spinning mills facing increased losses and inventory pressure [19] - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [21] Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Egg futures prices declined slightly, with the 2508 contract down 0.32% and the 2510 contract down 0.33%. Spot prices in major producing areas remained stable [24] - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is - 1, indicating a weak outlook [24] Hogs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Hog spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase. Futures prices also rose, with the trading volume and open interest increasing. The basis of the main contract was 790 yuan/ton [28] - **Market Logic**: The market is in the expected trading stage. The expectation of state reserves and the unanimous bullish view for July - August have boosted sentiment. Attention should be paid to the spot performance as the pigs from the large number of piglets sold by group farms in the first quarter will start to be slaughtered in July. The short - term support and resistance levels for the LH2509 contract are 13,000 yuan/ton and 14,500 yuan/ton respectively [30] - **Trend Intensity**: Hog trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [29] Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: Peanut futures prices rose slightly, with the PK510 contract up 0.71% and the PK511 contract up 0.48%. Spot prices in some regions declined slightly [32] - **Spot Market Focus**: Peanut production areas have low inventory and small supply. Most regions' prices are stable, and the trading volume is average [33] - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [34]

Report Overview - Date: July 2, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - Palm oil: Limited improvement in the fundamentals of the producing areas, oscillating at the bottom [2][4] - Soybean oil: Insufficient speculation on US soybean weather, lacking driving force [2][4] - Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans closed flat, Dalian soybean meal may rebound and oscillate [2][12] - Soybean: Stable spot prices, the futures market may oscillate [2][12] - Corn: Oscillating [2][15] - Sugar: Weakening [2][19] - Cotton: Lacking effective driving forces, the futures price remains in an oscillating trend [2][24] - Eggs: The peak season is approaching, and the number of culled hens is difficult to increase [2][29] - Pigs: Anticipating the destocking logic of the social inventory in July [2][31] - Peanuts: Supported at the bottom [2][36] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil futures had a 0.07% increase in the day - session and 0.00% at night, while soybean oil decreased by 0.15% in the day - session and 0.28% at night. Malaysian palm oil production in June 2025 decreased by 0.65% month - on - month. Indonesia's May palm oil exports soared by 53% year - on - year [4][5][8] - **Trend Intensity**: Both palm oil and soybean oil have a trend intensity of 0 [11] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean meal 2509 rose 0.10% in the day - session and fell 0.27% at night. DCE soybean 2509 fell 0.48% in the day - session and 0.07% at night. The US Senate's new tax bill may benefit US soybean growers if passed. Italy plans to increase US soybean imports [12][14] - **Trend Intensity**: Both soybean meal and soybean have a trend intensity of 0 [14] Corn - **Fundamentals**: Corn futures prices were relatively stable, with C2509 rising 0.29% in the day - session and falling 0.13% at night. Northern corn port prices were flat, while North China prices declined [16][17] - **Trend Intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [18] Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The futures主力 price was 5775 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan. High - frequency information showed a sharp drop in New York raw sugar in July, and USDA predicted a 4.73% increase in global production in the 25/26 season [19] - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of - 1 [22] Cotton - **Fundamentals**: Cotton futures prices were oscillating. Spot trading was mainly for rigid demand from textile mills, and the cotton yarn market was sluggish. ICE cotton was pressured by high planting area and good crop conditions but supported by external factors [24][25] - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [27] Eggs - **Fundamentals**: Egg futures prices showed mixed trends. Spot prices in some regions declined slightly. The peak season is approaching, and the number of culled hens is difficult to increase [29] - **Trend Intensity**: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [29] Pigs - **Fundamentals**: Pig futures and spot prices varied. The market is anticipating the destocking in July. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13000 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 14500 yuan/ton [32][34] - **Trend Intensity**: Pigs have a trend intensity of 0 [33] Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: Peanut futures prices rose slightly. Spot prices in most regions were stable, with some showing a weakening trend. The market has bottom support [36][37] - **Trend Intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector shows mixed trends. Palm oil and soybean oil have risen significantly, but their upside may be limited due to increased supply. Cotton has strengthened due to the significant reduction in Sino - US bilateral tariffs, and the sugar has also risen strongly. Meanwhile, some products like apples are in a continuous decline [1][2][3][6][9][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Palm oil and soybean oil have risen sharply, driven by the surge in CBOT soybean oil. However, the supply of domestic palm oil and soybean oil is increasing, which may limit their upside. Cotton has risen strongly, supported by the reduction in Sino - US bilateral tariffs, and the orders of textile enterprises may increase in the future [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil - The palm oil main contract 2509 has risen significantly, driven by the sharp increase in soybean oil. The proposed extension of the US 45Z clean fuel tax credit policy has boosted CBOT soybean oil. But the sharp increase in Malaysian palm oil production and inventory in April may limit its upside. Technically, it has turned stronger. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 8100 and resistance at 8210 [2]. 3.2.2 Soybean Oil - The soybean oil main contract 2509 has risen strongly, driven by the sharp increase in external soybean oil. The proposed extension of the US 45Z clean fuel tax credit policy has boosted CBOT soybean oil. Although the tight supply pattern of domestic soybean oil will gradually ease, the follow - up increase may be limited. Technically, it has turned stronger. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 7812 and resistance at 8000 [3]. 3.2.3 Cotton - The cotton main contract 2509 has risen strongly, basically recovering the previous day's decline. The significant reduction in Sino - US bilateral tariffs has boosted the market sentiment. Although the textile industry is in the off - season, the short - term strategy is to hold a small number of long positions, with support at 13260 and resistance at 13600 [6]. 3.2.4 Sugar - The sugar main contract 2509 has risen strongly, driven by the sharp increase in external raw sugar futures prices. The decline in Brazilian sugar production and the strong domestic sugar sales and production data have provided upward momentum. Technically, it has turned stronger. The strategy is to hold a small number of short - term long positions, with support at 5885 and resistance at 5940 [9]. 3.2.5 Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract 2509 has oscillated and closed up, driven by the strength of US soybeans. However, the large - scale arrival of imported soybeans in China in May and the increase in supply may limit its upside. The strategy is to observe the resistance of the 10 - day moving average. If it is broken, close short positions; otherwise, continue to hold them, with support at 2865 and resistance at 2923 [10][12]. 3.2.6 Soybean No. 1 - The soybean No. 1 main contract 2507 has oscillated and closed up, showing a sideways pattern. The limited supply of domestic soybeans, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the weak downstream demand have affected the price. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 4127 and resistance at 4199 [13]. 3.2.7 Corn - The corn main contract 2507 has rebounded and closed up after two days of adjustment. The Sino - US tariff reduction has a limited impact on corn, and the insufficient supply of corn still supports the price. The strategy is short - term trading, with support at 2338 and resistance at 2363 [15]. 3.2.8 Live Pigs - The live pig main contract 2509 has risen significantly, affected by the slowdown in the slaughter rhythm of the supply side. However, the high inventory of large pigs and the weak demand limit the upside. Technically, it has turned stronger. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 13800 and resistance at 14095 [18]. 3.2.9 Eggs - The egg main contract 2506 has first declined and then risen, with narrow - range oscillations. The slowdown in terminal replenishment and the high egg - laying hen inventory limit the upside. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 2900 and resistance at 2924 [19][21]. 3.2.10 Apples - The apple main contract 2510 has continued to decline. The high price in the producing area, the slowdown in sales, and the increase in substitute consumption have suppressed the price. The strategy is to hold a small number of short positions, with support at 7650 and resistance at 7770 [22].