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国金期货白糖期货周报-20250910
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-09-10 07:14
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week (20250901 - 0905), the white sugar futures showed a weak trend, with continuous inflow of market funds and an increase in positions. The domestic white sugar price continued to be weak, and the weak operation of the external ICE raw sugar provided weak support for the white sugar futures price. The price of the main contract (SR601) of white sugar futures showed a unilateral downward trend along the 5 - day moving average [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: This week (20250901 - 0905), the main contract (SR601) of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's white sugar futures showed a unilateral downward trend. The opening price was 5600 yuan/ton, the highest price was 5624 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 5509 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5523 yuan/ton, a decrease of 77 yuan/ton or 1.38% from last week. The trading volume was 928,164 lots, the position was 374,355 lots, and the weekly increase in positions was 16,584 lots [3]. - **Option Market**: This week, the total trading volume of the white sugar option variety was 316,073 lots, and the variety's position was 228,635 lots, a net increase of 35,289 lots compared to the previous period [5]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Quotation**: As of this Friday, the spot quotation of white sugar in Nanning warehouses was 5,880 yuan/ton. The white sugar spot price showed a volatile and weak trend throughout the week, breaking through the previous low [9]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of this Friday, the total number of registered warehouse receipts for white sugar futures was 12,476, compared with 13,916 last Friday, a decrease of 1,440 this week [10]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: According to Wind data, this week, the opening price of the main contract of ICE raw sugar futures was 16.34 cents/pound, the highest price was 16.52 cents/pound, the lowest price was 15.51 cents/pound, and the closing price was 15.58 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.79 cents/pound or 4.83% from last week. The position was 324,300 lots, and the position decreased by 24,880 lots this week. The price of the main contract of ICE raw sugar futures is approaching the previous low, and the future price of ICE raw sugar may face a certain directional choice, which may bring some disturbing effects on the domestic white sugar futures price [13]. - **Basis Data**: As of this Friday, the white sugar basis was 453 yuan/ton, compared with 406 yuan/ton last Friday. The basis increased by 47 yuan/ton this week, showing a strengthening trend overall [15]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Currently, the spot price of white sugar in Nanning warehouses in China continues to operate in a volatile and weak manner, and the price of ICE white sugar futures is weak, approaching the previous low. On the futures market, the price of the main contract (SR601) of white sugar futures showed a weak operation this week. Technically, the 5 - day and 20 - day moving averages formed a death cross. In the short term, in the context of the weak trend of domestic and foreign white sugar prices, the price of the main contract (SR601) of white sugar futures may continue to show a volatile and weak trend [18].
白糖日报-20250908
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-08 02:53
Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: September 8, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, New York raw sugar futures weakened significantly, with the主力 October contract down 2.06% to 15.70 cents per pound. The ICE white sugar futures主力 December contract in London fell 1.2% to $462.30 per ton. Favorable weather in Brazil for sugarcane harvesting and increased sugar production in Brazil, along with the weakening of oil prices, have negatively impacted sugar prices [7]. - The主力 contract of Zhengzhou sugar oscillated at a low level yesterday. The 01 contract closed at 5,523 yuan per ton, down 17 yuan or 0.31%, with an increase of 5,022 contracts in positions. Domestic spot sugar prices in production areas declined. Today, Zhengzhou sugar 01 continued to decline but showed low - level oscillation. The price is close to the cost lower limit of sugar mills in Guangxi and the previous low in June, providing some support. After the market, speculative funds continued to increase short positions, contributing to the decline [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Conditions**: SR601 closed at 5,523 yuan per ton, down 17 yuan or 0.31%, with an increase of 5,022 contracts in positions; SR605 closed at 5,509 yuan per ton, down 9 yuan or 0.16%, with an increase of 1,351 contracts in positions. For US sugar, the 10 - month contract closed at 15.70 cents per pound, down 0.33 cents or 2.06%, with a decrease of 8,899 contracts in positions, and the 03 - month contract closed at 16.34 cents per pound, down 0.31 cents or 1.86%, with an increase of 10,478 contracts in positions [7]. 2. Industry News - In the 25/26 sugar - making season, the estimated sugar production in Inner Mongolia may be adjusted downward due to continuous heavy rainfall in August but is still expected to be over 700,000 tons, higher than the 663,500 tons in the 24/25 season. The start - up time of the first sugar mill in Inner Mongolia is expected to be around September 12. The start - up time of the first sugar mill in Xinjiang in the 25/26 season may be postponed to around National Day, and the estimated sugar production in Xinjiang remains around the record - high level of 800,000 tons [11]. - Brazil exported 3.744 million tons of sugar in August, a year - on - year decrease of 4.47%. From April to August in the 2025/26 crushing season, Brazil's cumulative sugar exports were 14.506 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.84% [11]. - The chairman of the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories in India (NFCSF) stated that the export parity price of white sugar should be $500 per ton, and that of raw sugar should be over $19 per ton [11]. - According to data from Brazilian shipping agency Williams, as of the week ending September 3, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 87, up from 72 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded at ports was 3.207 million tons, up from 2.7221 million tons the previous week [11]. 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including spot price trends, 2509 contract basis, SR9 - 1 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and position of the top 20 seats of the主力 contract of Zhengzhou sugar, with data sources from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [12][14][16][19]
白糖日报-20250828
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 01:28
Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report - Date: August 28, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - New York raw sugar futures remained volatile, with the main October contract up 0.12% to 16.42 cents per pound, and the London ICE white sugar futures' main October contract up 0.3% to $488.10 per ton. The relatively calm fundamentals of raw sugar and improved weather in Brazil leading to increased sugar production pressured sugar prices [7]. - Zhengzhou sugar's main contract weakened. The 01 contract closed at 5,620 yuan per ton, down 38 yuan or 0.67%, with a reduction of 2,979 positions. Domestic spot prices in production areas declined. The pressure from imported sugar is increasing, suppressing domestic sugar prices. After - market, a large number of speculative long - positions were cut, which may lead to further decline [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - **Futures Market Conditions**: SR509 closed at 5,631 yuan per ton, down 65 yuan or 1.14%, with a position of 9,042 contracts, a decrease of 2,316 contracts; SR601 closed at 5,620 yuan per ton, down 38 yuan or 0.67%, with a position of 363,151 contracts, a decrease of 2,979 contracts; US sugar 10 closed at 16.42 cents per pound, up 0.02 cents or 0.12%, with a position of 360,587 contracts, a decrease of 5,802 contracts; US sugar 03 closed at 17.14 cents per pound, up 0.05 cents or 0.29%, with a position of 261,997 contracts, an increase of 1,326 contracts [7]. - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou sugar's main contract weakened. Domestic spot prices in production areas declined, with Nanning sugar quoted at 5,980 yuan and Kunming sugar at 5,800 yuan. The pressure from imported sugar is increasing, and the large - scale cutting of speculative long - positions may lead to further decline [8]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - **Brazilian Sugar Production Forecast**: Conab lowered Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production forecast to 44.5 million tons, a 3.1% reduction from the April forecast. The central - southern region's sugar production is now estimated at 40.6 million tons, a 2.8% decrease from the April forecast. However, Brazil's sugar production is still expected to increase by 0.8% compared to the previous season [9]. - **ICE Futures + Options Positions**: As of the week ending August 19, the total position of ICE raw sugar futures + options was 1,038,222 contracts, a decrease of 2,291 contracts from the previous week. Speculative long - positions were 179,365 contracts, a decrease of 11,403 contracts; speculative short - positions were 310,352 contracts, an increase of 4,227 contracts; speculative net short - positions were 130,987 contracts, an increase of 15,630 contracts [9]. - **Guangxi Sugar Inventory**: As of August 20, the inventory of Guangxi's third - party sugar warehouses was about 770,000 tons, an increase of about 310,000 tons compared to the same period last year, slightly lower than the five - year average. In August, the inventory decreased by about 140,000 tons compared to July, and the destocking speed slowed down significantly [9]. - **Brazilian Port Shipping**: As of the week ending August 20, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 70, down from 76 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 2.9169 million tons, a decrease of 401,000 tons or 12.08% from the previous week. Among them, the quantity of high - grade raw sugar (VHP) was 2.7282 million tons [9]. - **Chinese Syrup and Premixed Powder Imports**: In July, China imported 45,400 tons of syrup and white sugar premixed powder under tariff number 1702.90, a decrease of 182,800 tons or 80.12% year - on - year. The average landed price was 3,373.30 yuan per ton, a decrease of 292.96 yuan per ton month - on - month and 294.70 yuan per ton year - on - year, at a relatively low level in the past six years [9]. 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) - **Data Charts**: The report provides multiple data charts, including spot price trends, contract basis, spreads, import profits, warehouse receipts, exchange rates, and the trading and position data of the top 20 seats of Zhengzhou sugar's main contract, with data sources from Wind and Zhengshang, and analyzed by the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [12][14][19][25]
白糖日报-20250515
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 05:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday, New York raw sugar futures rose, with the main July contract up 2.71% to 18.18 cents per pound. The main August contract of London ICE white sugar futures rose 3% to $509.80 per ton. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of April was lower than expected, with a year - on - year decrease of over 50% due to excessive rainfall affecting production. Also, the continuous rebound of crude oil prices under the stimulus of a warming macro - environment led to the strengthening of raw sugar prices [7]. - Yesterday, the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar rebounded. The 09 contract closed at 5,906 yuan per ton, up 38 yuan or 0.65%, with a reduction of 10,042 positions. The spot prices in domestic producing areas increased slightly. Today's rise of Zhengzhou sugar mainly followed the overseas market, with a relatively small increase. Sugar mills also raised their quotes slightly, but overall, market participants' enthusiasm was not high [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Quotes**: SR509 closed at 5,906 yuan per ton, up 38 yuan or 0.65%, with a position reduction of 10,042 lots; SR601 closed at 5,759 yuan per ton, up 29 yuan or 0.51%, with an increase of 305 lots; US sugar 07 closed at 18.18 cents per pound, up 0.48 cents or 2.71%, with a position reduction of 3,453 lots; US sugar 10 closed at 18.36 cents per pound, up 0.49 cents or 2.74%, with an increase of 1,567 lots [7]. - **Domestic Spot Market**: The spot price in the domestic sugar - producing area increased. The price of Kunming sugar was 5,975 yuan, and that of Nanning sugar was 6,170 yuan [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **Global Sugar Demand**: According to StoneX's research data, global sugar demand has been growing at a rate of 1.1% per sugar - making season in the past 15 years. It is expected that in the 2024/25 season (from October to September of the following year), global sugar demand will reach 178 million tons (in white sugar equivalent) or 193.6 million tons (in raw sugar equivalent) [9]. - **Yunnan Sugar Mill Shutdown**: As of the latest date, 43 sugar mills in Yunnan have shut down, 4 fewer than the same period last year, with a shutdown production capacity of 153,400 tons per day, a decrease of 16,800 tons per day compared to the same period last year. There are still 9 sugar mills operating [9]. - **Brazilian Sugar Exports**: In April, Brazil exported 1,555,777.09 tons of sugar, with an average daily export volume of 77,788.85 tons, a 9% decrease compared to the average daily export volume in April last year [9]. - **Guangxi Sugar Sales**: As of the end of April, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi reached 4.1353 million tons, an increase of 554,300 tons compared to the same period last year; the sales - to - production ratio was 63.96%, a 6.03 - percentage - point increase compared to the same period last year. In April, the monthly sugar production was 4,200 tons, a decrease of 72,300 tons compared to the same period last year; the monthly sugar sales were 657,300 tons, a decrease of 8,800 tons compared to the same period last year; the industrial inventory was 2.3297 million tons, a decrease of 270,700 tons compared to the same period last year [9]. - **Yunnan Sugar Sales**: As of April 30, 2025, the cumulative sugar sales in Yunnan reached 1.3168 million tons (compared to 941,100 tons in the same period last year). The monthly sugar sales in April were 280,400 tons (compared to 189,500 tons in the same period last year), the sales - to - production ratio was 55.71% (compared to 46.53% in the same period last year), the industrial inventory was 1.047 million tons (compared to 1.0816 million tons in the same period last year), and the alcohol sales were 28,200 tons (compared to 26,400 tons in the same period last year) [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Futures Market Transaction Data**: On May 14, 2025, the total trading volume of the top 20 futures companies was 282,713 lots, an increase of 69,642 lots; the total long - position volume was 225,730 lots, a decrease of 2,477 lots; the total short - position volume was 216,826 lots, a decrease of 9,029 lots. Among them, CITIC Futures had the highest trading volume, long - position volume, and Cofco Futures had the highest short - position volume [20].