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波动率数据日报-20250822
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 06:43
Group 1: Implied Volatility Index and Its Calculation - The implied volatility index of financial options reflects the 30 - day implied volatility (IV) trend as of the previous trading day. The implied volatility index of commodity options is obtained by weighting the IV of the two strike - prices above and below the at - the - money option of the front - month contract, reflecting the IV change trend of the front - month contract [2] - The difference between the IV index and historical volatility (HV) indicates the relative level of IV to HV. A larger difference means higher IV relative to HV, and a smaller difference means lower IV relative to HV [2] Group 2: Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility Difference Graph - The document presents graphs showing the IV, HV, and IV - HV differences for various financial and commodity options, including 300 - stock index, 50ETF, 1000 - stock index, 500ETF, and many commodity options such as soybeans, corn, sugar, cotton, etc [3] Group 3: Implied Volatility Quantile and Volatility Spread Quantile Ranking - Implied volatility quantiles represent the current level of a variety's IV in history. A high quantile means the current IV is high, and a low quantile means the current IV is low. The volatility spread is calculated as the IV index minus the historical volatility [4] - The implied volatility quantile rankings are provided for different options, such as 50ETF with a quantile of 0.79, 300 - stock index with 0.80, iron ore with 0.37, PVC with 0.46, etc [5][7]
波动率数据日报-20250820
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 13:37
Key Points of the Report Core Concepts - The implied volatility index of financial options reflects the 30 - day implied volatility trend as of the previous trading day. The implied volatility index of commodity options is obtained by weighting the implied volatilities of the two - point - up and - down options at the at - the - money strike price of the main contract month, reflecting the implied volatility change trend of the main contract [2]. - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility shows the relative level of implied volatility to historical volatility. A larger difference means the implied volatility is relatively higher, and a smaller difference means it is relatively lower [2]. - The implied volatility quantile represents the current implied volatility level of a variety in history. A high quantile means the current implied volatility is high, and a low quantile means it is low. The volatility spread is the implied volatility index minus the historical volatility [4]. Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility Data - The report presents the implied volatility (IV), historical volatility (HV), and their differences (IV - HV) of various options, including 300 Index, 50ETF, 1000 Index, 500ETF, and many commodity options such as soybean meal, corn, sugar, cotton, etc. [3] Implied Volatility Quantile and Volatility Spread Quantile Ranking - The report shows the ranking of implied volatility quantiles and historical volatility quantiles of different varieties, such as 300 Index, PVC, PTA, corn, etc. [4][5]
农产品期权策略早报-20250819
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 01:31
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector shows different trends: oilseeds and oils are in a strong - side oscillation, oils and by - products maintain an oscillatory trend, soft commodities like sugar have a slight oscillation, cotton's bullish rise has declined, and grains such as corn and starch are in a weak and narrow - range consolidation [2]. - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various agricultural product futures are presented, including soybeans, soybean meal, palm oil, etc. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2511) is 4,056 with no change, and its trading volume is 8.83 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of different agricultural product options are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 option is 0.32, with a change of - 0.14 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different agricultural product options are given, which are determined by the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4500, and the support level is 4100 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of different agricultural product options are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 11.985%, and the weighted implied volatility is 14.43% with a change of - 1.72% [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1 and No.2**: The fundamentals of soybeans are affected by factors such as USDA's adjustment of planting area and yield, and Trump's call for China to buy soybeans. The option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The fundamentals of soybean meal are related to the monthly purchase volume. The option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The fundamentals of oils are affected by USDA's reports and India's inventory replenishment. The option strategies include constructing a bullish call spread strategy, a long - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Peanuts**: The fundamentals of peanuts are related to the spot price, import volume, and oil mill operation rate. The option strategies include constructing a bearish put spread strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.2 By - product Options - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is relatively loose, and the demand is stimulated by low prices. The option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [11]. - **Eggs**: The inventory of laying hens is expected to increase. The option strategies include constructing a bearish put spread strategy and a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [12]. - **Apples**: The cold - storage inventory of apples is at a low level. The option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy [12]. - **Red Dates**: The inventory of red dates is decreasing, and the market is improving. The option strategies include constructing a bullish call spread strategy, a long - biased wide - straddle option combination strategy, and a covered call strategy for spot [13]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: The fundamentals of sugar are affected by Brazil's sugar production data. The option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Cotton**: The fundamentals of cotton are related to the operating rates of spinning and weaving mills and global production. The option strategies include constructing a long - biased call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [14]. 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn and Starch**: The fundamentals of corn are affected by USDA's planting area and yield adjustment. The option strategies include constructing a bearish put spread strategy and a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [14]. 3.6 Option Charts - Charts of various agricultural product options are provided, including price trend charts, volume and open interest charts, implied volatility charts, etc., to visually display the market conditions of different agricultural product options [15][34][53].
商品期权周报-20250817
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-17 12:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past week, the trading volume of commodity options increased slightly, mainly due to the increment brought by the rising volatility of the agricultural products sector. Meanwhile, the trading volume of the non - ferrous and new energy sectors decreased along with the decline of implied volatility. The implied volatility of non - ferrous sector options is at a relatively low level recently, and buying options for price reversal trading can be considered [5]. - The options of contracts such as soybean meal, corn, starch, iron ore, liquefied gas, polypropylene, PVC, plastic, palm oil, soybean No.1, soybean No.2, soybean oil, styrene, ethylene glycol, eggs, live pigs, and log 509 are about to expire. Attention should be paid to the end - of - month risks when changing contracts [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Overview - The trading volume of commodity options increased slightly last week, mainly due to the increment from the agricultural products sector. The trading volume of non - ferrous and new energy sectors decreased, and their implied volatility also declined. The implied volatility of non - ferrous sector options is at a recent low [5]. - The options of certain contracts are about to expire, and attention should be paid to the end - of - month risks [5]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Overview - The trading volume of the overall market this week was 8,808,344.8, with a week - on - week increase of 0.17%. The open interest was 8,996,228, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.27%. Among them, the trading volume of the agricultural products sector increased by 2.45%, that of the energy and chemical sector increased by 0.17%, that of the black sector increased by 0.4%, and that of the precious metals sector increased by 1.26%. The trading volume of the non - ferrous and new energy sectors decreased by 1.82%. The open interest of the agricultural products sector decreased by 0.1%, that of the energy and chemical sector decreased by 0.55%, that of the black sector decreased by 0.19%, and that of the non - ferrous and new energy sectors increased by 0.41% [6]. 3.2.2 - 3.2.55 Various Option Market Data - For each type of option (such as corn, soybean meal, etc.), detailed data on trading volume, open interest, volume PCR, open interest PCR, at - the - money volatility, HV - 10 days, HV - 20 days, and Skew are provided, including data for this week, last week, and their changes [12 - 44]. 3.3 Chart Analysis No relevant content provided.
农产品期权策略早报-20250813
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 01:51
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The agricultural products options market shows different trends. Oilseeds and oils are in a strong and volatile state, while other categories such as agricultural by - products, soft commodities, and grains have various forms of volatile or weak market conditions. - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview of Underlying Futures - Different agricultural product options have different price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, rapeseed meal (RM2511) had a significant price increase of 6.13% with a price of 2,736, while eggs (JD2510) decreased by 0.47% to 3,197.00 [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of different options vary, which can be used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and whether there is a turning point in the underlying market. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean meal (M2511) is 0.76, and the open interest PCR is 0.59 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the maximum open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of different option underlyings are obtained. For example, the pressure level of soybean (A2511) is 4,300, and the support level is 4,050 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different options shows different trends and relationships with historical volatility. For example, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal (RM2511) has a relatively large increase, with the weighted implied volatility increasing by 4.45% to 31.65% [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybeans (A2511)**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [7]. - **Soybean Meal (M2511)**: Similar to soybeans, with specific option contracts recommended [9]. - **Palm Oil (P2510)**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a long - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [10]. - **Peanuts (PK2510)**: Directional strategy: Construct a bearish spread combination strategy of put options; Volatility strategy: None; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold a long spot position + buy put options + sell out - of - the - money call options [11]. 3.5.2 Agricultural By - products Options - **Pigs (LH2511)**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - covered strategy: Hold a long spot position + sell out - of - the - money call options [11]. - **Eggs (JD2510)**: Directional strategy: Construct a bearish spread combination strategy of put options; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: None [12]. - **Apples (AP2510)**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: None [12]. - **Jujubes (CJ2601)**: Directional strategy: Construct a bullish spread combination strategy of call options; Volatility strategy: Construct a long - biased wide - straddle option combination strategy; Spot covered - hedging strategy: Hold a long spot position + sell out - of - the - money call options [13]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodities Options - **Sugar (SR2511)**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [13]. - **Cotton (CF2511)**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a long - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot covered strategy: Hold a long spot position + buy put options + sell out - of - the - money call options [14]. 3.5.4 Grains Options - **Corn (C2511)**: Directional strategy: Construct a bearish spread combination strategy of put options; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: None [14].
波动率数据日报-20250811
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 06:44
Group 1: Implied Volatility Index and Historical Volatility - The financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility (IV) trend as of the previous trading day. The commodity option implied volatility index is obtained by weighting the IV of the two - strike options around the at - the - money option of the front - month contract, reflecting the IV change trend of the front - month contract [3] - The difference between the IV index and historical volatility (HV) indicates the relative level of IV to HV. A larger difference means higher IV relative to HV, and a smaller difference means lower IV relative to HV [3] Group 2: Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility Graphs - The document presents graphs showing the IV, HV, and IV - HV differences for various financial and commodity options, including 300 - stock index, 50ETF, 1000 - stock index, 500ETF, and many commodity options such as silver, soybean meal, corn, etc [4] Group 3: Implied Volatility Quantile and Volatility Spread Quantile Ranking - Implied volatility quantile represents the current level of a variety's IV in history. A high quantile means the current IV is high, and a low quantile means the current IV is low. Volatility spread is the difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility [5] - The document provides the implied volatility quantile rankings for different options, such as PVC with a quantile of 0.92, PTA with 0.39, etc [6]
商品期权周报-20250804
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 05:39
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading enthusiasm in the commodity options market has declined, with implied volatility falling along with trading volume. The actual volatility of most varieties remains at a relatively high level, and the decline rate of implied volatility is gradually slowing down. Additionally, the fluctuations in futures prices and the spread of hot - spot varieties have increased commodity arbitrage opportunities [5]. - The near - month options contracts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will expire on Thursday. The trading volume and open - interest ratios of the call options of the double - silicon varieties continue to increase, and the skew is also rising in a high - level oscillation. It is advisable to consider buying a bull spread portfolio for short - term speculation [5]. - The skew center of the black sector options has declined, and the implied volatility is at a high level, but the premium space compared with the actual volatility is limited. One can consider selling out - of - the - money call options and buying out - of - the - money put options for a skew regression arbitrage strategy, while paying attention to appropriate Delta - neutral hedging. The arbitrage space for rebar options is relatively large [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - The trading volume of the overall market decreased by 0.45%, while the open interest increased by 0.21%. Among different sectors, the trading volume of agricultural products increased by 0.68%, energy and chemical decreased by 0.19%, black decreased by 0.14%, precious metals decreased by 2.76%, and non - ferrous and new energy decreased by 0.98%. The open interest of agricultural products increased by 0.09%, energy and chemical increased by 0.29%, black increased by 0.21%, precious metals increased by 0.48%, and non - ferrous and new energy increased by 0.25% [6]. 3.2 Commodity - Specific Option Data - **Corn Options**: The trading volume and open interest of call and put options showed different changes. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew also decreased [18][19]. - **Soybean Meal Options**: The trading volume decreased, while the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew also decreased [20]. - **Rapeseed Meal Options**: The trading volume and open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew also decreased [22]. - **Palm Oil Options**: The trading volume and open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased significantly [23]. - **Soybean Oil Options**: The trading volume and open interest showed mixed changes. The implied volatility of at - the - money options increased slightly, and the skew decreased [24]. - **Rapeseed Oil Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased [25]. - **Peanut Options**: The trading volume and open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased slightly, and the skew increased [26]. - **Yellow Soybean No. 1 Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew increased significantly [27]. - **Yellow Soybean No. 2 Options**: The trading volume and open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew increased [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [29]. - **Styrene Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [30]. - **Sugar Options**: The trading volume and open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased significantly [31]. - **Cotton Options**: The trading volume and open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [32]. - **PTA Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [33]. - **PX Options**: The trading volume and open interest showed significant changes. The implied volatility of at - the - money options had some fluctuations, and the skew had some changes [34]. - **Caustic Soda Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [35]. - **Rubber Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased slightly. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [36]. - **BR Rubber Options**: The trading volume decreased significantly, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased [37]. - **Polyethylene Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased [38]. - **Polypropylene Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased [39]. - **Methanol Options**: The trading volume decreased significantly, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [40]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas Options**: The trading volume decreased slightly, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased [41]. - **PVC Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [42]. - **Crude Oil Options**: The trading volume and open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options increased slightly, and the skew decreased [43]. - **Iron Ore Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased significantly [44].
农产品期权策略早报-20250731
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 01:47
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the agricultural products options industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural products options market shows different trends across various sectors. Oilseeds and oils are in a relatively strong and volatile state, while other sectors such as by - products, soft commodities, and grains have their own specific trends like range - bound trading or short - term weakness [2]. - The recommended strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Various agricultural product futures show different price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the price of soybean No.1 (A2509) dropped by 0.63% to 4,126, with a trading volume of 11.89 million lots and a decrease of 1.99 million lots compared to the previous period, and an open interest of 12.87 million lots with a decrease of 0.47 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - **Volume and Open Interest PCR**: Different option varieties have different volume and open interest PCR values and their changes, which can be used to analyze the strength and turning points of the underlying asset market. For example, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.38, a decrease of 0.16, and the open interest PCR is 0.39, a decrease of 0.01 [4]. - **Pressure and Support Levels**: From the perspective of the maximum open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of the underlying assets are analyzed. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4,300 and the support level is 4,100 [5]. - **Implied Volatility**: Each option variety has different implied volatility values, changes, and differences compared to historical volatility, which can be used to measure the market's expectation of future price fluctuations. For example, the weighted implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 12.36%, a decrease of 0.72% [6]. 3.3 Strategies and Recommendations - **Oilseeds and Oils Options** - **Soybean No.1 and No.2**: The USDA July report adjusted the supply - demand balance of soybeans. The market of soybean No.1 shows a pattern of small - range consolidation with pressure above. Recommended strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The purchase volume of soybean meal shows a certain pattern. The market of soybean meal shows a pattern of weak consolidation with support below followed by a rebound and then a decline. Recommended strategies are similar to those of soybean No.1 [9]. - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The palm oil market is affected by export and production factors, showing a pattern of long - position high - level consolidation. Recommended strategies include constructing a long - biased short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, showing a pattern of weak consolidation under bearish pressure. Recommended strategies include constructing a bearish spread strategy of put options and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **By - product Options** - **Pigs**: The pig market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, showing a pattern of small - range consolidation under bearish pressure. Recommended strategies include constructing a short - biased short call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [11]. - **Eggs**: The egg market is affected by factors such as weather and supply and demand, showing a pattern of weak consolidation with pressure above. Recommended strategies include constructing a bearish spread strategy of put options and a short - biased short call + put option combination strategy [12]. - **Apples**: The apple market is affected by factors such as production and inventory, showing a pattern of gradual rebound with pressure above. Recommended strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy [12]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube market shows a pattern of rebound and then decline with pressure above. Recommended strategies include constructing a short - biased wide - straddle option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Soft Commodity Options** - **Sugar**: The sugar market shows a pattern of rebound after a decline with support below. Recommended strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Cotton**: The cotton market shows a short - term weak pattern. Recommended strategies include constructing a long - biased short call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [14]. - **Grain Options** - **Corn and Starch**: The corn market shows a pattern of weak decline with pressure above. Recommended strategies include constructing a bearish spread strategy of put options and a short - biased short call + put option combination strategy [14].
农产品期权策略早报-20250723
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 00:53
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector includes beans, oils, agricultural by - products, soft commodities, grains, and others. Oilseeds and oils show a relatively strong and volatile trend, while oils, agricultural by - products maintain a volatile market. Soft commodity sugar rebounds and fluctuates upward, cotton shows a bullish trend, and grains such as corn and starch are weakly and narrowly consolidated. It is recommended to construct option combination strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product options have various price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the latest price of soybean A2509 is 4,241, with a rise of 28 and a rise rate of 0.66%, trading volume of 14.61 million lots (a decrease of 3.65 million lots), and open interest of 18.11 million lots (an increase of 0.81 million lots) [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Quantity and Position PCR - The quantity and position PCR of different option varieties vary, which can be used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean A is 0.23 (a decrease of 0.11), and the position PCR is 0.48 (an increase of 0.02) [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the maximum open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of different option varieties are determined. For example, the pressure level of soybean A is 4,500, and the support level is 4,100 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different option varieties also shows differences. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean A is 10.525, the weighted implied volatility is 11.72 (an increase of 0.33), and the difference between implied and historical volatility is - 0.40 [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean A and B**: The USDA July report adjusted the supply - demand data of US soybeans. Soybean A showed a rebound after a decline in June and July. The implied volatility of soybean A options is at a relatively high level, the position PCR is below 0.70, and the pressure and support levels are 4,500 and 4,100 respectively. It is recommended to construct a neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The purchase volume of soybean meal from March to September is different. Soybean meal showed a rebound after a decline in June and July. The implied volatility of soybean meal options is slightly above the historical average, the position PCR is around 0.80, and the pressure and support levels are 3,450 and 2,900 respectively. Similar to soybean A, it is recommended to construct a neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8][9]. - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The export and production data of Malaysian palm oil in June are different. Palm oil showed a bullish trend. The implied volatility of palm oil options is decreasing to below the historical average, the position PCR is around 1.00, and the pressure and support levels are 10,000 and 8,000 respectively. It is recommended to construct a bullish call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Peanuts**: The price of peanuts in Henan and the northeast shows different trends. Peanuts showed a weak consolidation trend. The implied volatility of peanut options is at a relatively low level, the position PCR is below 0.80, and the pressure and support levels are 9,000 and 7,200 respectively. It is recommended to construct a bearish spread strategy for direction and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.2 Agricultural By - products Options - **Pigs**: The domestic pig price showed a decline last week. Pigs showed a weak trend after a rebound. The implied volatility of pig options is above the historical average, the position PCR is below 0.50, and the pressure and support levels are 18,000 and 13,800 respectively. It is recommended to construct a bearish call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a covered call strategy for spot [11]. - **Eggs**: The domestic egg price rebounded last week. Eggs showed a weak bearish trend. The implied volatility of egg options is at a relatively high level, the position PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 3,500 and 2,800 respectively. It is recommended to construct a bearish spread strategy for direction and a bearish call + put option combination strategy for volatility [12]. - **Apples**: The inventory of apples in cold storage is at a low level. Apples showed a weak rebound trend. The implied volatility of apple options is below the historical average, the position PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 8,900 and 7,000 respectively. It is recommended to construct a neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility [12]. - **Red Dates**: The inventory of red dates decreased slightly. Red dates showed a rebound and then a decline. The implied volatility of red date options is decreasing and is above the average, the position PCR is below 0.50, and the pressure and support levels are 14,000 and 8,600 respectively. It is recommended to construct a bearish strangle option combination strategy for volatility and a covered call strategy for spot [13]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodities Options - **Sugar**: The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased. Sugar showed a rebound after a decline. The implied volatility of sugar options is at a relatively low level, the position PCR is around 0.80, and the pressure and support levels are 6,100 and 5,700 respectively. It is recommended to construct a neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Cotton**: The开机 rate of spinning and weaving factories decreased, and the commercial inventory of cotton decreased. Cotton showed a rebound trend. The implied volatility of cotton options is decreasing and is at a low level, the position PCR is below 1.00, and the pressure and support levels are 14,000 and 13,000 respectively. It is recommended to construct a bullish spread strategy for direction, a bullish call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a covered call strategy for spot [14]. 3.5.4 Grains Options - **Corn and Starch**: The spot price of corn showed a weak trend, and the futures market was also weak. Corn showed a bearish trend. The implied volatility of corn options is at a relatively low level, the position PCR is around 0.80, and the pressure and support levels are 2,400 and 2,240 respectively. It is recommended to construct a bearish spread strategy for direction and a bearish call + put option combination strategy for volatility [14].
瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20250717
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 13:04
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Recent domestic sugar prices fluctuate with raw sugar, but due to rising domestic demand, they perform better than the international market. Later, both supply and demand will be strong, leading to increased price volatility. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to the arrival of imported sugar and summer consumption [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5828 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the position of the main contract is 321,770 lots, up 8,938 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 21,857, down 432. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -14,462 lots [2]. - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,476 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4,606 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,687 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5,855 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,905 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning is 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou is 6,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. - The cumulative national sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, up 54,900 tons; the cumulative sales volume is 8.1138 million tons, up 869,200 tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 3.0483 million tons, down 814,300 tons; the national sales rate is 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points [2]. - The monthly import volume of sugar is 350,000 tons, up 220,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil are 3.359 million tons, up 1.1024 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar within the quota and the current price of Liuzhou sugar is 1,486 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 1,356 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) and the current price of Liuzhou sugar is 275 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 107 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 3%, down 0.9 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 7.2%, down 0.27 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is also 7.2%, down 0.27 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.51%, down 0.1 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.29%, down 0.23 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In June, China's refined sugar production was 337,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.6%. From January to June, the cumulative production was 9.404 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.7% [2]. - Internationally, with the monsoon season coming, the supply outlook of major Asian sugar - producing countries is good, and the expectation of loose supply suppresses raw sugar prices. However, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased in the second half of June, providing some support and limiting short - term decline [2]. - From the second half of June, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 42.706 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.86%. The sugar production in the central - southern region was 2.845 million tons, a 12.98% decrease compared to the average of the past three years [2]. - According to Brazilian foreign trade data, Brazil exported 1.36992641 million tons of sugar in the first two weeks of July, with an average daily export volume of 152,214.05 tons, a 7.44% decrease compared to the average daily export volume in July last year [2].