Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall market lacks significant driving factors, and sugar prices are expected to remain low in the short term. Attention should be paid to the import data for October [2]. - The supply pressure of Brazilian sugar is still evident, but as the current crushing season nears its end, exports are expected to decline seasonally. With strong expected production increases in India and Thailand, the rebound of raw sugar prices is weak. The domestic market is less affected by the decline due to import quotas and policies. Guangxi sugar mills are mainly focused on inventory reduction, and the new crushing season is mostly expected to start in mid - to late November, with a possible delay, which provides some sales opportunities for old sugar [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5,475 yuan/ton, and the main contract position is 373,243 lots, an increase of 1,282 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7,663, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 56,451 lots, an increase of 2,007 lots. The total effective warehouse receipt forecast is 1,305, a decrease of 281. The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 3,967 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar is 4,023 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,022 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar is 5,095 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,650 yuan/ton, in Nanning is 5,760 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton, and in Liuzhou is 5,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, and the sown area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 1,116.21 thousand hectares. The cumulative national sugar production is 835.09 million tons, a decrease of 12.86 million tons, and the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 999.98 million tons, an increase of 44.98 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of sugar is - 280,000 tons, and the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 420.5 million tons, an increase of 95.92 million tons. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,560 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar is 1,504 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton. The price difference outside the quota (50% tariff) for Brazilian sugar is 505 yuan/ton, and for Thai sugar is 432 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 53.91 million tons, and the monthly output of soft drinks is 1,591.7 million tons, a decrease of 184.1 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 7.5%, an increase of 0.07%, and that of at - the - money put options is 7.51%, an increase of 0.01%. The 20 - day historical volatility is 7.34%, a decrease of 0.2%, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.82%, a decrease of 0.15% [2]. Industry News - According to data from Brazilian shipping agency Williams, as of the week ending November 5, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 81, down from 86 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded at ports was 3.0598 billion tons, up from 2.9933 billion tons the previous week. Three sugar mills in Yunnan have started crushing, one more than the same period last year. Brazil exported 420.5 million tons of sugar in October, a year - on - year increase of 13%. Since the 2025/26 crushing season (April - March of the following year) until October 2025, Brazil's cumulative sugar exports were 21.9568 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.27% [2].

Report Title - The sugar market is fluctuating weakly, with a game between supply pressure and cost support - Sugar Weekly Report from October 27th to October 31st, 2025 [1] Report Author - Author: Yang Jiangtao [2] - Professional Certificate Number: F03117249 [2] - Transaction Consultation Number: Z0022644 [2] - Contact Information: 0371 - 58620082 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The sugar market is currently in a weakly fluctuating phase. The core contradiction between bulls and bears lies in the game between the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere (Brazil's increased output + China's new sugar - making season) and cost support (production cost line of 5400 yuan). The supply - demand situation remains loose, and the futures price is repeatedly testing support in the range of 5450 - 5500 yuan, lacking short - term breakthrough momentum. It is expected that the main sugar contract will continue to fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton in the next 1 - 2 weeks, and the direction will be determined by the progress of the new sugar - making season and policy signals [4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Review - The closing price of the 11 - sugar continuous contract decreased by 3.61% from 14.97 to 14.43. The closing price of the main Zhengzhou sugar contract increased by 0.68% from 5446 to 5483. Spot prices in Nanning, Liuzhou, Kunming, and Rizhao Lingyunhai all decreased slightly. The basis between Liuzhou sugar and the main contract narrowed by 20.09% from 234 to 187. The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts decreased by 7.47% from 8771 to 8116. The market sentiment shows that the proportion of bearish views on Zhengzhou sugar is 50% [6] 1.2 Domestic Futures and Spot - Not detailed in the provided content 1.3 Raw Sugar Futures - Not detailed in the provided content 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 China's Sugar Production and Sales - Not detailed in the provided content 2.2 Production and Sales of Sugarcane Sugar in Main Chinese Producing Areas - Not detailed in the provided content 2.3 Production and Sales of Beet Sugar in Main Chinese Producing Areas - Not detailed in the provided content 2.4 China's White Sugar Industrial Inventory - Not detailed in the provided content 2.5 China's Sugar Imports and Exports - Not detailed in the provided content 2.6 Main Sugar - Importing Countries of China - Not detailed in the provided content 2.7 China's Sugar Import Cost and Profit - For Brazil, the in - quota processing cost decreased by 5.54% from 4040 to 3816, the in - quota import profit increased by 10.59% from 1851 to 2047, the out - of - quota processing cost decreased by 5.67% from 5154 to 4862, and the out - of - quota import profit increased by 35.82% from 737 to 1001. For Thailand, the in - quota processing cost decreased by 5.43% from 4124 to 3900, the in - quota import profit increased by 11.04% from 1767 to 1962, the out - of - quota processing cost decreased by 5.53% from 5263 to 4972, and the out - quota import profit increased by 41.88% from 628 to 891 [31] 3. International Market Fundamentals 3.1 Available Sugar Quantity in Brazil - Not detailed in the provided content 3.2 Sugarcane Crushing Volume in Brazil - Not detailed in the provided content 3.3 Sugar Production in Brazil - Not detailed in the provided content 3.4 Ethanol Production in Brazil - Not detailed in the provided content 3.5 Sugar Imports and Exports in Brazil - Not detailed in the provided content 3.6 International Raw Sugar Premiums and Freight Costs - Not detailed in the provided content

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week (20250901 - 0905), the white sugar futures showed a weak trend, with continuous inflow of market funds and an increase in positions. The domestic white sugar price continued to be weak, and the weak operation of the external ICE raw sugar provided weak support for the white sugar futures price. The price of the main contract (SR601) of white sugar futures showed a unilateral downward trend along the 5 - day moving average [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: This week (20250901 - 0905), the main contract (SR601) of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's white sugar futures showed a unilateral downward trend. The opening price was 5600 yuan/ton, the highest price was 5624 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 5509 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5523 yuan/ton, a decrease of 77 yuan/ton or 1.38% from last week. The trading volume was 928,164 lots, the position was 374,355 lots, and the weekly increase in positions was 16,584 lots [3]. - **Option Market**: This week, the total trading volume of the white sugar option variety was 316,073 lots, and the variety's position was 228,635 lots, a net increase of 35,289 lots compared to the previous period [5]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Quotation**: As of this Friday, the spot quotation of white sugar in Nanning warehouses was 5,880 yuan/ton. The white sugar spot price showed a volatile and weak trend throughout the week, breaking through the previous low [9]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of this Friday, the total number of registered warehouse receipts for white sugar futures was 12,476, compared with 13,916 last Friday, a decrease of 1,440 this week [10]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: According to Wind data, this week, the opening price of the main contract of ICE raw sugar futures was 16.34 cents/pound, the highest price was 16.52 cents/pound, the lowest price was 15.51 cents/pound, and the closing price was 15.58 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.79 cents/pound or 4.83% from last week. The position was 324,300 lots, and the position decreased by 24,880 lots this week. The price of the main contract of ICE raw sugar futures is approaching the previous low, and the future price of ICE raw sugar may face a certain directional choice, which may bring some disturbing effects on the domestic white sugar futures price [13]. - **Basis Data**: As of this Friday, the white sugar basis was 453 yuan/ton, compared with 406 yuan/ton last Friday. The basis increased by 47 yuan/ton this week, showing a strengthening trend overall [15]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Currently, the spot price of white sugar in Nanning warehouses in China continues to operate in a volatile and weak manner, and the price of ICE white sugar futures is weak, approaching the previous low. On the futures market, the price of the main contract (SR601) of white sugar futures showed a weak operation this week. Technically, the 5 - day and 20 - day moving averages formed a death cross. In the short term, in the context of the weak trend of domestic and foreign white sugar prices, the price of the main contract (SR601) of white sugar futures may continue to show a volatile and weak trend [18].