2025 年十一假期期货市场品种解读 2025 年 10 月 8 日 | | 研究员： | 赵丹琪（执业编号：F3039881 | 投资咨询资格编号：Z0014940） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 邮件：zhaodq1@cjfco.com.cn | 公司地址：http://www.cjfco.com.cn | 微信公众号：ChangjiangFutures | | | 板块 | 品种 | 9 月 30 日下午 3:00 价格 | 10 月 7 日下午 3:00 价格 | 涨跌幅 | | | 纳斯达克 | 22,660.01 | 22,941.67 | 1.24% | | | 标准普尔 | 6,688.46 | 6,740.28 | 0.77% | | 宏观 | 道琼斯工业 | 46,397.89 | 46,694.97 | 0.64% | | | 恒生指数 | 26,855.56 | 26957.77 | 0.38% | | | 美元指数 | 97.80 | 98.1175 | 0.33% | | 贵金属 | COMEX 白银 | 46.97 | 48.33 ...

Group 1 - ICE raw sugar futures increased by 1.88% and ICE white sugar futures rose by 1.27% [1] - ICE Arabica coffee futures fell by 2.38%, while coffee "C" futures decreased by 1.71% [1] - Robusta coffee futures declined by 0.88% [1] Group 2 - New York cocoa futures rose by 1.47%, reaching $6281 per ton, after previously dropping to $6022, approaching the bottom of $5668 expected on November 11, 2024 [1] - London cocoa futures increased by 0.53%, with a cumulative rise of 4.05% since trading ended on September 25 [1] - ICE cotton futures decreased by 0.17% [1]

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index decreased by 0.77%, closing at 29.5688 points [1] - CBOT corn futures fell by 0.58% [1] - CBOT wheat futures dropped by 0.84% [1] - CBOT soybean futures declined by 0.57%, settling at $10.44 per bushel [1] - Soymeal futures decreased by 0.28% [1] - Soy oil futures experienced a significant drop of 2.63% [1] - ICE raw sugar futures fell by 2.45% [1] - ICE Arabica coffee futures decreased slightly by 0.06% [1] - Coffee "C" futures saw a notable decline of 7.56% [1] - New York cocoa futures dropped by 0.26%, closing at $7352 per ton [1] - ICE cotton futures fell by 0.74% [1]

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index decreased by 0.77%, closing at 29.5688 points [1] - CBOT corn futures fell by 0.58% [1] - CBOT wheat futures dropped by 0.84% [1] - CBOT soybean futures declined by 0.57%, settling at $10.44 per bushel [1] - Soymeal futures decreased by 0.28% [1] - Soy oil futures experienced a significant drop of 2.63% [1] Group 2 - ICE raw sugar futures fell by 2.45% [1] - ICE Arabica coffee futures decreased by 0.06% [1] - Coffee "C" futures saw a substantial decline of 7.56% [1] - New York cocoa futures dropped by 0.26%, closing at $7352 per ton [1] - ICE cotton futures fell by 0.74% [1]

Group 1 - ICE raw sugar futures decreased by 0.75% while ICE white sugar futures increased by 0.02% [1] - ICE Arabica coffee futures fell by 2.39%, and coffee "C" futures dropped by 2.14% [1] - Robusta coffee futures declined by 1.20% [1] - New York cocoa futures decreased by 3.66%, settling at $7364 per ton [1] - London cocoa futures fell by 2.13% [1] - ICE cotton futures rose by 1.24% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week (20250901 - 0905), the white sugar futures showed a weak trend, with continuous inflow of market funds and an increase in positions. The domestic white sugar price continued to be weak, and the weak operation of the external ICE raw sugar provided weak support for the white sugar futures price. The price of the main contract (SR601) of white sugar futures showed a unilateral downward trend along the 5 - day moving average [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: This week (20250901 - 0905), the main contract (SR601) of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's white sugar futures showed a unilateral downward trend. The opening price was 5600 yuan/ton, the highest price was 5624 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 5509 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5523 yuan/ton, a decrease of 77 yuan/ton or 1.38% from last week. The trading volume was 928,164 lots, the position was 374,355 lots, and the weekly increase in positions was 16,584 lots [3]. - **Option Market**: This week, the total trading volume of the white sugar option variety was 316,073 lots, and the variety's position was 228,635 lots, a net increase of 35,289 lots compared to the previous period [5]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Quotation**: As of this Friday, the spot quotation of white sugar in Nanning warehouses was 5,880 yuan/ton. The white sugar spot price showed a volatile and weak trend throughout the week, breaking through the previous low [9]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of this Friday, the total number of registered warehouse receipts for white sugar futures was 12,476, compared with 13,916 last Friday, a decrease of 1,440 this week [10]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: According to Wind data, this week, the opening price of the main contract of ICE raw sugar futures was 16.34 cents/pound, the highest price was 16.52 cents/pound, the lowest price was 15.51 cents/pound, and the closing price was 15.58 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.79 cents/pound or 4.83% from last week. The position was 324,300 lots, and the position decreased by 24,880 lots this week. The price of the main contract of ICE raw sugar futures is approaching the previous low, and the future price of ICE raw sugar may face a certain directional choice, which may bring some disturbing effects on the domestic white sugar futures price [13]. - **Basis Data**: As of this Friday, the white sugar basis was 453 yuan/ton, compared with 406 yuan/ton last Friday. The basis increased by 47 yuan/ton this week, showing a strengthening trend overall [15]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Currently, the spot price of white sugar in Nanning warehouses in China continues to operate in a volatile and weak manner, and the price of ICE white sugar futures is weak, approaching the previous low. On the futures market, the price of the main contract (SR601) of white sugar futures showed a weak operation this week. Technically, the 5 - day and 20 - day moving averages formed a death cross. In the short term, in the context of the weak trend of domestic and foreign white sugar prices, the price of the main contract (SR601) of white sugar futures may continue to show a volatile and weak trend [18].

Core Insights - ICE raw sugar futures fell by 1.57% while ICE white sugar futures decreased by 1.96% [1] - ICE coffee "C" futures rose by 5.43%, and Robusta coffee futures increased by 8.71% [1] - Cocoa futures in New York increased by 1.22%, reaching $8277 per ton, while London cocoa futures rose by 0.73% [1] - ICE cotton futures saw a rise of 1.02% [1] Sugar Market - ICE raw sugar futures dropped by 1.57% [1] - ICE white sugar futures experienced a decline of 1.96% [1] Coffee Market - ICE coffee "C" futures increased by 5.43% [1] - Robusta coffee futures surged by 8.71% [1] - Brazil's main Arabica coffee bean region reported zero rainfall for the week, below the historical average of 1.4 mm [1] Cocoa Market - New York cocoa futures rose by 1.22%, with a current price of $8277 per ton [1] - The price has been in a downward trend since peaking at $10677 on May 20 [1] - London cocoa futures increased by 0.73% [1] Cotton Market - ICE cotton futures rose by 1.02% [1]

Group 1 - ICE raw sugar futures fell by 0.78% [1] - ICE white sugar futures decreased by 1.14% [1] - ICE Arabica coffee futures dropped by 1.26% [1] - Coffee "C" futures also declined by 1.26% [1] - Robusta coffee futures increased by 1.55% [1] - New York cocoa futures fell by 0.16%, settling at $8207 per ton [1] - London cocoa futures rose by 0.94% [1] - ICE cotton futures decreased by 0.25% [1]

Group 1 - ICE raw sugar futures increased by 0.86% [1] - ICE white sugar futures rose by 0.70% [1] - ICE Arabica coffee futures gained 0.87% [1] - Coffee "C" futures saw a rise of 1.13% [1] - Robusta coffee futures surged by 3.59% [1] - New York cocoa futures increased by 2.95%, reaching $8575 per ton [1] - London cocoa futures rose by 1.51% [1] - ICE cotton futures saw a slight increase of 0.10% [1]

Group 1 - ICE raw sugar futures fell by 1.57%, while ICE white sugar futures decreased by 1.96% [1] - ICE coffee "C" futures rose by 5.43%, and Robusta coffee futures increased by 8.71% [2] - Brazil's largest Arabica coffee bean region reported zero rainfall for the week, below the historical average of 1.4 mm [2] Group 2 - New York cocoa futures increased by 1.22%, reaching $8277 per ton, continuing a downward trend since peaking at $10677 on May 20 [2] - London cocoa futures rose by 0.73% [2] - ICE cotton futures gained 1.02% [2]