Core Viewpoint - The risk of stagflation in the U.S. economy is re-emerging, with inflation expected to rise and economic growth to slow down in the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation Drivers - Tariff impacts are not fully realized yet, as U.S. companies imported heavily in Q1 to avoid high tariffs, leading to high inventories. Once these inventories are depleted, companies will have to resume imports, likely passing tariff costs onto consumers [2]. - Immigration policies have tightened, leading to labor shortages in key sectors such as construction, agriculture, and elder care, which may push up wage levels and contribute to inflationary pressures [2]. - Moderate fiscal policy expansion is anticipated to contribute 0.4 to 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth over the next 12 months, increasing inflation risks [2]. Group 2: Economic Growth Projections - U.S. GDP growth is projected to be below trend levels, with estimates of 1.3% for this year and 1.2% for next year [3]. Group 3: Long-term Fiscal Concerns - The rapid passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which makes the temporary personal income tax cuts from 2017 permanent, is expected to increase the budget deficit by over $3 trillion over the next decade. This is unusual given the already low unemployment rate [5]. - The U.S. budget deficit is projected to remain above 6% of GDP in the coming years, with government debt reaching about 100% of GDP, and interest payments consuming 3% to 4% of GDP, which is unsustainable [5]. - Changes in the buyer structure of U.S. debt, with reduced purchases from foreign central banks and increased sensitivity from private investors, may lead to greater volatility in bond yields [5]. Group 4: Global Economic Outlook - Other regions are expected to experience slower growth but easing inflation, providing more room for central banks to cut rates. Asian exports are anticipated to decline further in the second half of the year, while Germany's fiscal and infrastructure spending may take time to support economic growth [6]. Group 5: Currency and Monetary Policy - The Nomura team holds a "soft dollar" stance due to stagflation pressures in the U.S., despite current interest rate differentials favoring the U.S. The dollar is considered significantly overvalued, and the persistent trade deficit may limit its performance [7]. - Concerns about the potential appointment of a "shadow Fed chair" by Trump could add uncertainty to monetary policy, as this individual might influence market expectations and complicate the current Fed chair's policy-making [8].

【环球时报综合报道】编者的话：7月20日是日本参议院选举的投票日。除了物价上涨、同美国关税谈判问题之外，外国人问题也首次进入日本的 竞选议程，成为选举中的焦点议题之一。在日本人口老龄化、劳动力不足的背景下，该国不得不重视外国人带来的经济社会效益。但与此同时， 日本部分媒体和民众关于"外国人威胁公共安全""外国人不合理占用福利"等的抱怨声渐强，部分右翼政党也试图通过迎合这种不满情绪来吸引选 民。对此，有日媒批评称，日本政府长期对移民政策采取回避、放任态度是外国人问题根源所在。也有日媒发出警告称，让外国人充当经济社会 问题"替罪羊"的做法，有可能会在整个社会范围内传播排外思想，不利于包容性社会的构建。 一些针对外国人的指控 " 并没有事实依据 " 随着日本加速引进外国劳工和人才，在日外国人数量连续3年创新高。截至去年年底，在日外国人口约为376.9万，同比增长10.5%，其中永居者约 为91.8万，在各移民类别中数量最多。从移民来源国看，中国占比最高（23.2%），越南（16.8%）和韩国（10.9%）紧随其后。此外，外国游客的 数字更是庞大。去年，日本共迎来超过3300万名外国游客，超过了疫情前水平，旅游也成为 ...

Core Insights - Jamie Dimon, Chairman of JPMorgan Chase, indicated that tariffs, immigration policies, and deficits are contributing to inflation in the United States [1] Group 1 - Tariffs are identified as a factor leading to inflation [1] - Immigration policies are also highlighted as a contributing element to inflation [1] - The issue of deficits is mentioned as a significant driver of inflation in the U.S. economy [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that U.S. immigration policies and budget deficits are contributing to inflationary pressures [1] Group 2 - The CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, highlights the impact of immigration policies on the economy [1] - The discussion includes how budget deficits are influencing inflation rates [1]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.29%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.22%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 0.20% [1] - European indices also show positive movement, with Germany's DAX up by 1.18%, UK's FTSE 100 up by 0.24%, France's CAC 40 up by 1.24%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 1.09% [1] - WTI crude oil is up by 0.20%, priced at $68.47 per barrel, while Brent crude oil is up by 0.16%, priced at $70.26 per barrel [1] Corporate Insights - Bank of America has raised its S&P 500 year-end target from 5600 to 6300, with a 12-month target of 6600, citing strong corporate resilience despite economic challenges [2] - Goldman Sachs suggests the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates in September, three months earlier than previously expected, due to moderate inflation and a cooling job market [2] - The Mannheim used car value index has seen a significant increase, with a 1.6% month-over-month rise and a 6.3% year-over-year increase, attributed to tariffs affecting new car sales [3] - Apple is undergoing a major management change as COO Jeff Williams retires, with Sabih Khan set to take over amid challenges such as tariff costs and slowing iPhone growth [6] - Google is focusing its AI investments on infrastructure, with a commitment of approximately $75 billion for data center development [7] - Starbucks' China business is attracting bids with a valuation of up to $10 billion, with several private equity firms interested in acquiring stakes [8] - WPP has issued a profit warning, lowering its 2025 revenue forecast by 3% to 5% due to client losses, including a significant contract with Mars worth $1.7 billion [9] - Merck is nearing a $10 billion acquisition of Verona Pharmaceuticals, focusing on respiratory drug development [10]

在内政方面，斯塔默政府的首要任务是稳定经济和改善公共服务。数据显示，英国年通胀率自2023年高 点回落，截至2025年第一季度的数据已接近英国央行设定的目标。英国政府强调其财政纪律政策及央行 的协调配合是物价趋稳的重要原因。 移民政策方面，工党政府终止了前任政府的"卢旺达计划"，但保留了加强边境执法、遏制非法移民的总 体方向。工党被视为左翼政党，传统上对移民问题采取相对宽松立场。而斯塔默在移民等议题上的表态 却有意向右翼立场靠拢，以争取受英国改革党影响的选民。与此同时，工党政府还要稳住左翼选民基本 盘，不得不频繁使用"平衡术"。反对党批评称，政府对移民问题"表态多于行动"，难以满足公众预期。 在对外关系方面，斯塔默政府强调"务实合作"，试图改善与欧盟关系。今年5月，斯塔默与欧盟委员会 主席冯德莱恩、欧洲理事会主席科斯塔等欧盟领导人举行会议。这是"脱欧"以来，英国与欧盟举行的首 次正式峰会。以此为新的起点，英欧关系将进入一个务实的校准期，双方将尝试在现实利益的博弈与历 史遗留的纷争中找到新的契合点。 与美国的"特殊关系"保持总体稳定，斯塔默多次强调"美国一直是英国可靠的盟友"。然而，在中东局 势、美英贸易谈判等 ...

1. 将和泽连斯基通话——知情人士透露，预计美国总统特朗普和乌克兰总统泽连斯基将在周五的电话会 议中讨论美国突然停止向基辅运送一些关键武器的问题。 2. 对普京失望——特朗普：对与俄罗斯总统普京的通话感到失望。不认为普京打算停止行动。 3. 频频转发赞扬就业市场的言论——美国非农数据大超预期，失业率意外下跌，特朗普在其社交媒体上 接连转发赞扬今日美国经济数据表现的视频，其中一条视频称，今天的数据是个好消息，比预期的要好 得多。 4. 将发出关税信函——特朗普表示，他将于周五开始致函贸易伙伴，设定单边关税税率，各国必须从8 月1日开始支付关税税率。他补充说："关税范围高至60%或70%，低至10%和20%。" 6. 将签署"大而美"法案——美国"大而美"法案在两名共和党议员反水的情况下获众议院通过，特朗普将 于周六清晨签署该法案。 7. 对外国游客涨价——特朗普签署行政令，指示美国内政部研究提高外国游客进入美国国家公园的票 价，确保美国居民在游览国家公园时具有优先权利。 8. 安抚农场主——特朗普表示，愿意允许为美国农场工作的移民工人留在美国，只要雇主农场主愿意为 其"担保"。特朗普此番表态是在美移民政策日益收 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that President Trump is willing to allow immigrants, who are employed and guaranteed by American farmers, to remain in the country [1]

如果美国失业率升至 4.6%？20250701 摘要 美国失业率在 3.6%至 4.0%区间波动，逼近可能触发"萨默规则"的阈 值，该规则一旦触发，预示经济衰退风险，可能引发类似 2024 年三季 度的市场反应，如美股下跌、大宗商品回落和美联储降息预期。 美国劳动力市场已降温至疫情前水平，职位空缺与失业人数比值显著下 降，表明企业招聘意愿减弱，就业需求侧走弱明显，纯粹失业人数和新 进入劳动力市场未就业人数均在增加。 移民政策对就业市场产生双重影响：初期大量移民填补劳动力缺口，但 随后加剧了与本土工人的竞争，导致移民失业率上升。政府收紧移民政 策虽短期内稳定失业率，但长期可能导致经济降温。 领先指标显示就业需求侧持续走弱，非农就业数据等关键指标表现疲软， 预示今年下半年就业市场可能加速降温，需密切关注相关数据的变化。 特朗普政府时期，移民拘留人数创历史新高，但拘留设施已超负荷运转， 限制了驱逐移民对就业市场的抑制效果，且减少移民不利于长期经济增 长。 关税对美国经济和就业市场构成显著冲击，本次加征关税范围更广、力 度更大，叠加美国经济转冷的背景，可能导致经济冲击和失业率上升。 市场普遍预期今年年底美国失业率将升 ...

当地时间7月1日，美国总统特朗普前往佛罗里达州出席新建移民拘留设施"鳄鱼恶魔岛"的启用仪式。 这座新建的移民拘留设施位于美国佛罗里达州迈阿密以西约80公里处，有5000个床位。这里"被鳄鱼包围"，被白宫称为"鳄鱼恶魔岛"。 "鳄鱼恶魔岛"于7月1日开始运营，是特朗普政府通过扩大拘留容量来加大驱逐非法移民力度的措施之一。 白宫新闻秘书莱维特6月30日说，"鳄鱼恶魔岛"的优势在于选址荒僻、危险动物环绕。莱维特说，拘留中心"被鳄鱼包围"，这是"一种震慑"，让被拘留者不 敢逃跑。 打击非法移民和施行严厉的移民政策是特朗普政府的核心内容。有报道称，在总统第一个任期内，特朗普曾提出在美国和墨西哥边境修建一条满是鳄鱼的护 城河。但特朗普2019年否认自己有这一想法。 今年5月4日，特朗普在社交媒体平台发文称，他指示美国监狱管理局、司法部、联邦调查局和国土安全部，重新开放经过大幅扩建和重建的"恶魔岛"，以关 押美国"最残忍、最暴力的罪犯"。 （文章来源：央视新闻） △"恶魔岛"，又名阿尔卡特拉斯岛 "鳄鱼恶魔岛"得名于美国西海岸加利福尼亚州旧金山的著名地点——"恶魔岛"。"恶魔岛"又名阿尔卡特拉斯岛，曾是一座监狱，从1934 ...