Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank warns that the biggest threat to the US dollar may stem from the US government's own fiscal situation, with the fiscal uncertainty index reaching a historical high due to ongoing disputes over tax reform and budget deficits [1][4]. Group 1: Fiscal Situation and Debt Market - The US fiscal uncertainty index has surged to a historical high, primarily driven by continuous debates surrounding tax reform, fiscal deficits, and long-term budget outlooks [4][6]. - Despite a relatively strong economic backdrop, the US fiscal deficit remains exceptionally large and unsustainable, contradicting historical patterns where deficits correlate with high unemployment rates [4][6]. - Investor interest in US Treasuries is waning, as evidenced by the 30-year and 20-year Treasury yields both surpassing 5%, yet the latest 20-year Treasury auction results were disappointing, indicating a quiet withdrawal of foreign capital [3][6]. Group 2: Domestic vs. Foreign Investment - Historically, foreign investors have been the primary buyers of US Treasuries, and if this trend of withdrawal continues, the question of who will step in to purchase these bonds becomes critical [6][7]. - Domestic institutions may be incentivized to buy US Treasuries due to high yields, but their holdings in the Treasury market have significantly decreased compared to decades past, and they are less sensitive to US fiscal deficits than foreign investors [7][9]. - Even if domestic investors increase their Treasury purchases, it may not prevent the dollar from weakening, as they lack sufficient overseas assets to offset the outflow of foreign capital [7][11]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Domestic institutions currently hold a historically high position in the stock market, and any significant shift towards increasing Treasury allocations would likely require them to reduce their stock holdings, potentially leading to a chain reaction in the markets [9][11]. - Overall, while domestic institutions may find opportunities in US Treasuries, the ongoing withdrawal of foreign investors poses a clear downside risk for the US dollar [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Republican Party in the U.S. House of Representatives has released a tax reform bill that includes an increase in the cap for state and local tax deductions (SALT) [1] Group 1 - The tax reform bill aims to adjust the SALT deduction cap, which could have significant implications for taxpayers in high-tax states [1] - The proposed changes are expected to benefit individuals and families who itemize their deductions, particularly in states with higher local taxes [1] - This legislative move reflects ongoing discussions about tax policy and its impact on state economies and federal revenue [1]

Group 1 - The core narrative revolves around the contrasting impacts of tax reform and tariffs on the U.S. economy, with tax cuts expected to stimulate growth while tariffs may hinder consumer purchasing power and economic expansion [1][4][5] - Economists are skeptical about the effectiveness of tariffs in boosting domestic manufacturing and employment, with many predicting that the negative impact of tariffs will outweigh the positive effects of tax reforms [1][6] - The average tariff rate has increased significantly from 2.5% at the beginning of the year to approximately 15%, which is estimated to act as a tax increase equivalent to 1% to 1.5% of GDP [6][7] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary projected a growth rate close to 3% within a year, while independent analyses suggest a much lower impact from tax cuts on GDP growth [5][6] - Consumer confidence has dropped to the second-lowest level on record, and inflation expectations have reached multi-decade highs, indicating potential economic strain [6] - The tax savings from reforms may be offset by rising prices due to tariffs, particularly affecting low-income households [7]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting between House Freedom Caucus Chairman Andy Harris and President Trump highlighted the significant challenges Trump faces in achieving his proposed tax reforms [1] Group 1 - Andy Harris emphasized that there is still a long way to go for Trump to realize his tax reform agenda [1]

美国众议长约翰逊：我们"几乎就要"达成税改协议。 非常相信我们将完成税改立法谈判。 ...

白宫新闻秘书Leavitt：白宫本周末将讨论税改问题。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Republican-led House Budget Committee rejected a multi-trillion dollar bill from the Trump administration that included tax reform and healthcare adjustments, indicating significant internal party divisions and the need for further negotiations to gain support from conservative members [1] Legislative Developments - The bill, valued at several trillion dollars, faced opposition from five conservative hardliners within the Republican Party, alongside all Democratic members [1] - The Republican leadership plans to continue discussions with dissenting party members in the coming days, aiming to revive the legislative process as early as next Monday (May 19) [1] Bill Status - The Republican leadership has stated that the bill is not yet mature, with substantial modifications needed in the tax and healthcare provisions to secure conservative support [1]

Core Viewpoint - The tax reform proposal supported by President Trump failed to pass through a House committee due to disagreements among Republicans regarding costs [1] Group 1: Tax Reform Proposal - The proposal faced opposition from hardline conservatives who demanded further cuts to Medicaid [1]

智通财经5月17日电，特朗普税改案在美国众议院委员会未通过，共和党在成本问题上有分歧。 ...

在共和党人就是否提高百万富翁的税率进行了数周的辩论之后，该提案并未包括对最富有的美国人增税。该法案将永久延续特朗普2017年税法中设定的 37%的个人最高税率。尽管特朗普上周还告诉众议院议长迈克·约翰逊，他希望对收入超过250万美元的个人征收39.6%的税率。 这份提案是共和党控制的众议院向本月内进行全院表决迈出的关键一步，也是特朗普立法议程的核心。然而，由于众议院共和党席位优势微弱，特朗普 需要党内几乎一致的支持才能通过该法案。 SALT上限调整：政治妥协与地区博弈 法案草案将州地方税扣除上限(SALT)从目前的1万美元提高至3万美元，适用于个人和夫妇，但对收入超过20万美元的单身纳税人或40万美元的联合申 报者设限。 SHMET 网讯：共和党公布万亿级税改方案，将SALT扣除限额提至3万美元，取消小费和加班税，剔除富人税增提议，同时寻求提高债务上限4万亿美 元。 美东时间周一，根据媒体报道，众议院税务委员会公布了特朗普税改方案，提出在未来十年减税超过4万亿美元，同时削减开支至少1.5万亿美元。根据 报道，该法案还寻求将国家债务上限提高4万亿美元，低于参议院倾向的5万亿美元水平。这一举措旨在将任何额外债务上 ...