Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Current fundamentals and policies offer little guidance. The stable capital market lacks the impetus for further breakthroughs, and the rising market risk appetite suppresses the bond market. It's advisable to trade bonds based on stock market performance and beware of additional selling pressure from bond fund and wealth management redemptions [11]. - Long - term: Considering the pressure of tariffs and weak domestic demand, the expectation of monetary easing may rise again in October as external demand risks become more apparent in the third quarter, tariff negotiation results are clarified, and the Fed cuts interest rates. However, if the anti - involution measures effectively boost domestic demand and inflation, the bond market trend may reverse. Continued attention should be paid to the implementation of supply - side reform policies and the strength of demand recovery [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - **Market Conditions**: The stock - bond seesaw continues. The strong performance of commodity futures and the announcement on inflation - related policies may boost inflation expectations, leading to a wider decline in Treasury bond futures in the late session [8]. - **Interest Rate Bonds**: Yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities have risen, mostly by 3 - 4bp. As of 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond 250011 reached 1.735%, up 2.9bp [9]. - **Funding Market**: The capital market is stable with rising prices. There were 450.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due today, and the central bank conducted 331 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 119.5 billion yuan. Short - term capital interest rates have risen significantly, while medium - and long - term funds remain stable and loose [10]. 3.2 Industry News - An economic and trade meeting between China and the US will be held in Sweden from July 27th to 30th [13]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will take measures to improve the coordinated development mechanism of state - owned and private enterprises [13]. - Hainan Free Trade Port will start the full - island customs closure operation on December 18th, with an increase in the proportion of "zero - tariff" goods [13]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will take measures to address issues in the pig industry [13]. - From January to June, 16,500 old urban residential areas were newly renovated, and 25,000 are planned for the whole year [14]. - Bank deposit interest rates continue to decline [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Includes data on trading, spreads, and trends of Treasury bond futures [6][15][16]. - **Money Market**: Information on SHIBOR and inter - bank repurchase rates [29][33]. - **Derivatives Market**: Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap curves [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The winning factor for trading in July may be the profit - taking rhythm [1][3][14] - The bond market performance in the second half of the year is expected to be stronger than that in the first half, and many institutions expect the yield to break through downward in the third quarter. However, "front - running" and "consensus expectations" are the main obstacles to the market, and the main logic for the bond market in the third quarter is the repair of institutional liability costs and income performance, which requires time [3][14] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Liquidity and Short - term Interest Rates - Season - end liquidity remains loose, with a significant "accumulation" effect on the last working day. The cross - season progress this quarter is significantly slow. Although the "accumulation" effect may intensify capital market fluctuations, it is unlikely to change the looser capital market condition at the beginning of July. Short - term coupon - bearing products fluctuate with market sentiment, and the front - running effect of inter - bank certificates of deposit weakened in the last week, with slightly higher interest rates [1][9] - Whether the central bank has restarted Treasury bond purchases in June will be revealed soon. What matters more is whether short - term purchases form an incremental amount. If the 1 - year Treasury bond does not show a rapid downward trend, the emotional stimulus of the central bank's restart of Treasury bond purchases on long - term bonds is limited [2][14] 2. Long - term Interest Rates - Long - term interest rates returned to a "low - volatility" state after front - running. In late June, long - term interest rates lacked the power for a breakthrough decline due to limited trading space, reduced seasonal liquidity factors, and the suppression of the bond market by the stock - bond seesaw effect. The 10 - year minus 1 - year term spread returned to 30BP [2][11] - For long - term interest rates to break through previous lows, it depends on the "steep illusion" of the Treasury yield curve. However, this kind of trading market based on the "steep illusion" has an unstable foundation [13] 3. Trading Time Windows - The first and last weeks of July are two time windows when trading sentiment may be high. If the capital market fluctuations caused by the cross - season "accumulation" on the last day of June are not too severe, the marginal loosening of liquidity in the first week of July will be strengthened. If institutions expect limited incremental policies, they may enter a "front - running" trading state in the week before the Politburo meeting at the end of July. However, external uncertainties and the recovery of risk appetite may cause market fluctuations [3][14]