Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Long - term, the Politburo meeting in July indicated that the "moderately loose" monetary policy orientation remains unchanged, and high tariff uncertainty and potential export - related risks suggest the bull - market foundation for bonds is intact. Short - term, the joint statement on tariff exemption extension reduces uncertainty, cools risk - aversion sentiment, and with the strength of commodities and the stock market, the bond market, especially long - term bonds, is under pressure. Given the supportive factors for the August capital market, short - term 2 - year and 5 - year bond varieties may be more resilient, and a strategy of going long on short - term and short on long - term bonds is recommended. Also, attention should be paid to the marginal changes in July economic data this week [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - **Market Performance**: The stock - bond seesaw continued. Bank - to - bank funds were loose but had limited impact, and treasury bond futures closed down across the board. Interest rates of major on - the - run bonds in the inter - bank market declined, with the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 yield rising 0.75bp to 1.725% by 16:30 [8][9]. - **Funding Market**: The central bank conducted consecutive net withdrawals, but inter - bank funds remained loose. There were 1607 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank carried out 1146 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 461 billion yuan. The inter - bank funds sentiment index eased, short - term fund rates fluctuated slightly, and medium - and long - term funds were stable [10]. - **Conclusion**: Long - term, the bull - market foundation for bonds remains. Short - term, long - term bonds are under pressure. Short - term bonds may be more resilient, and a strategy of going long on short - term and short on long - term bonds is recommended. Attention should be paid to July economic data [11][12]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - **Sino - US Relations**: On August 12, China and the US issued a joint statement. The US promised to continue adjusting tariff measures on Chinese goods, and both sides continued to suspend the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs for 90 days [13]. - **Domestic Policies**: Multiple policies were introduced, including a personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy policy, a service industry business loan subsidy policy, an expansion of the use scope of housing provident funds in Suzhou [13][14]. - **International Relations**: US and Russian leaders are scheduled to meet on August 15. Different parties have expressed their attitudes and demands regarding the Russia - Ukraine peace process, and there are many differences among them [15]. 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Information on trading data, spreads, and trends of treasury bond futures was provided, including cross - maturity spreads, cross - variety spreads, and the trends of main contracts [6][16][21]. - **Money Market**: Information on the money market was presented, including the term structure and trends of SHIBOR, and the weighted interest rates of inter - bank pledged repurchase [25][30][35]. - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves was provided [37].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Current fundamentals and policies offer little guidance. The stable capital market lacks the impetus for further breakthroughs, and the rising market risk appetite suppresses the bond market. It's advisable to trade bonds based on stock market performance and beware of additional selling pressure from bond fund and wealth management redemptions [11]. - Long - term: Considering the pressure of tariffs and weak domestic demand, the expectation of monetary easing may rise again in October as external demand risks become more apparent in the third quarter, tariff negotiation results are clarified, and the Fed cuts interest rates. However, if the anti - involution measures effectively boost domestic demand and inflation, the bond market trend may reverse. Continued attention should be paid to the implementation of supply - side reform policies and the strength of demand recovery [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - **Market Conditions**: The stock - bond seesaw continues. The strong performance of commodity futures and the announcement on inflation - related policies may boost inflation expectations, leading to a wider decline in Treasury bond futures in the late session [8]. - **Interest Rate Bonds**: Yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities have risen, mostly by 3 - 4bp. As of 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond 250011 reached 1.735%, up 2.9bp [9]. - **Funding Market**: The capital market is stable with rising prices. There were 450.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due today, and the central bank conducted 331 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 119.5 billion yuan. Short - term capital interest rates have risen significantly, while medium - and long - term funds remain stable and loose [10]. 3.2 Industry News - An economic and trade meeting between China and the US will be held in Sweden from July 27th to 30th [13]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will take measures to improve the coordinated development mechanism of state - owned and private enterprises [13]. - Hainan Free Trade Port will start the full - island customs closure operation on December 18th, with an increase in the proportion of "zero - tariff" goods [13]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will take measures to address issues in the pig industry [13]. - From January to June, 16,500 old urban residential areas were newly renovated, and 25,000 are planned for the whole year [14]. - Bank deposit interest rates continue to decline [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Includes data on trading, spreads, and trends of Treasury bond futures [6][15][16]. - **Money Market**: Information on SHIBOR and inter - bank repurchase rates [29][33]. - **Derivatives Market**: Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap curves [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The winning factor for trading in July may be the profit - taking rhythm [1][3][14] - The bond market performance in the second half of the year is expected to be stronger than that in the first half, and many institutions expect the yield to break through downward in the third quarter. However, "front - running" and "consensus expectations" are the main obstacles to the market, and the main logic for the bond market in the third quarter is the repair of institutional liability costs and income performance, which requires time [3][14] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Liquidity and Short - term Interest Rates - Season - end liquidity remains loose, with a significant "accumulation" effect on the last working day. The cross - season progress this quarter is significantly slow. Although the "accumulation" effect may intensify capital market fluctuations, it is unlikely to change the looser capital market condition at the beginning of July. Short - term coupon - bearing products fluctuate with market sentiment, and the front - running effect of inter - bank certificates of deposit weakened in the last week, with slightly higher interest rates [1][9] - Whether the central bank has restarted Treasury bond purchases in June will be revealed soon. What matters more is whether short - term purchases form an incremental amount. If the 1 - year Treasury bond does not show a rapid downward trend, the emotional stimulus of the central bank's restart of Treasury bond purchases on long - term bonds is limited [2][14] 2. Long - term Interest Rates - Long - term interest rates returned to a "low - volatility" state after front - running. In late June, long - term interest rates lacked the power for a breakthrough decline due to limited trading space, reduced seasonal liquidity factors, and the suppression of the bond market by the stock - bond seesaw effect. The 10 - year minus 1 - year term spread returned to 30BP [2][11] - For long - term interest rates to break through previous lows, it depends on the "steep illusion" of the Treasury yield curve. However, this kind of trading market based on the "steep illusion" has an unstable foundation [13] 3. Trading Time Windows - The first and last weeks of July are two time windows when trading sentiment may be high. If the capital market fluctuations caused by the cross - season "accumulation" on the last day of June are not too severe, the marginal loosening of liquidity in the first week of July will be strengthened. If institutions expect limited incremental policies, they may enter a "front - running" trading state in the week before the Politburo meeting at the end of July. However, external uncertainties and the recovery of risk appetite may cause market fluctuations [3][14]