Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The short - term view of rebar 2510 is weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is also weak oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern has weakened, and steel prices are under pressure [2]. - In the current situation of stable supply, weak demand and inventory increase, the fundamentals of rebar continue to weaken. During the off - season, steel prices are still prone to pressure. However, due to the significant increase in costs and the relatively small real - world contradictions under low inventory, the downside space is limited. The short - term trend will continue the weak oscillation pattern, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Variety View Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term, medium - term and intraday views are weak oscillation, oscillation, and weak oscillation respectively. The reference is to focus on the MA5 line pressure, with the core logic of a weakened supply - demand pattern and steel prices under pressure [2]. Market Driving Logic - Over the weekend, steel spot prices were stable with a slight increase, and the transaction was average. The supply - demand pattern of rebar continued to weaken seasonally, with a significant increase in inventory. The weekly output of rebar decreased slightly month - on - month, but there is still room for an increase in production. Meanwhile, rebar demand has weakened significantly, and downstream industries have not improved. The weak demand characteristics during the off - season remain. Currently, the fundamentals of rebar continue to weaken, but the increase in costs and low inventory limit the downside space, and the short - term trend is a weak oscillation [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2) Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of rebar continues to weaken. With stable production of construction steel mills, the weekly output of rebar decreased slightly, but the supply pressure is still likely to increase due to good profit per ton. Meanwhile, the demand for rebar has weakened significantly, with both weekly apparent demand and high - frequency daily transactions at low levels in recent years. The off - season fundamentals continue to deteriorate, inventory has increased substantially, and steel prices are under pressure. Although the recent cost increase limits the downward space, steel prices are expected to show a weakening trend in oscillation, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Data Supply - The weekly output of rebar was 220.45 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.73 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 percentage points. Compared with the same period last year, the output increased by 54.08 tons, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 0.61 percentage points [1]. Demand - The weekly apparent demand for rebar was 189.94 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20.85 tons. The weekly average of Steel Union's building materials transactions was 10.16, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18. Both are at low levels in recent years, and the off - season demand is weak, continuing to put pressure on steel prices [1][2]. Inventory - The total inventory of rebar was 587.19 tons, a week - on - week increase of 30.51 tons. The in - plant inventory was 172.26 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.06 tons, and the social inventory was 414.93 tons, a week - on - week increase of 26.45 tons. Compared with the same period last year, the total inventory decreased by 103.37 tons, the in - plant inventory decreased by 9.25 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 94.12 tons [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of rebar 2510 is weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is also weak oscillation. Investors should pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is the weak operation of the fundamentals, which causes the steel price to fall under pressure [2]. - The rebar market shows a situation of stable supply, weak demand and increasing inventory. Although the steel price is under pressure due to the weakening fundamentals and market sentiment, the rising cost and low inventory limit the downside space, and the subsequent trend will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Variety View Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term is weak oscillation, the medium - term is oscillation, and the intraday is weak oscillation. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, with the fundamental weakness causing the steel price to fall under pressure [2]. Market Driving Logic - Market sentiment has weakened, leading to a collective decline in ferrous metals. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has significantly weakened, with a large increase in inventory. The weekly output of rebar has slightly decreased, but there is still room for an increase in production. Meanwhile, the demand for rebar has weakened again, and the downstream industry has not improved. In the current situation of stable supply, weak demand and increasing inventory, the rebar fundamentals continue to weaken. Although the steel price is under pressure, the rising cost and low inventory limit the downside space, and the subsequent trend will be oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [3].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No report industry investment rating is provided in the content [1][2][3] Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable, and steel prices are expected to continue the oscillatory trend. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on rebar 2510 are oscillatory, oscillatory, and weakly oscillatory respectively. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA20 line [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, and steel prices continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA20 line [2] Market Driving Logic - The implementation of the production - restriction expectation is less than expected, and the raw materials have strengthened again, driving up steel prices. However, in the situation of both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved substantially. The production of construction steel mills has resumed, and the weekly output of rebar has increased significantly. Although the demand for rebar has improved, the improvement in off - season demand is of questionable sustainability. Steel prices are still prone to pressure, and the upward driving force needs to be tracked. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [3]

Report Summary Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable, and steel prices are expected to continue the oscillatory trend. Pay attention to the support at the MA20 line and the production and sales data released by Steel Union today [2][3]. Summary by Related Content Variety View Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are oscillatory, oscillatory, and weakly oscillatory respectively. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, causing steel prices to oscillate. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly running. The production of construction steel mills is weakening, with weekly production decreasing month - on - month. However, the profit per ton of the variety is good, so the sustainability of supply contraction is not strong. Meanwhile, the demand for rebar has weakened again, with high - frequency indicators showing a month - on - month decrease and being at a low level in the same period in recent years. The off - season demand is weak, continuing to put pressure on steel prices. In a low - inventory situation, the real - world contradictions of rebar are not significant. The strong performance of coking coal and coke drives steel prices to stabilize oscillatory. But with the supply - demand being weak, the fundamental situation is weakly stable, and the upward driving force is also not strong [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of rebar 2510 is weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is also weak oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is the weak supply - demand pattern and the weak oscillation of steel prices [2]. - Under the situation of increasing supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have no substantial improvement, industrial contradictions accumulate, and steel prices are under pressure. However, due to the low inventory, the real - world contradictions are not significant. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Steel Union today [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term is weak oscillation, the medium - term is oscillation, and the intraday is weak oscillation. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the weak supply - demand pattern and the weak oscillation of steel prices. There are also explanations for the time - cycle and the calculation of price changes [2]. Market Driving Logic - Policy expectations have been fulfilled, market sentiment has weakened. The supply of rebar has increased as expected, and there is room for further increase due to good profit per ton. The demand has improved, mainly due to the increase in speculative demand, but the improvement in downstream industries is not strong. Overall, the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and steel prices are under pressure but will continue to oscillate at a high level [3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 7 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 产业逻辑回归，钢价承压运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局弱稳运行，螺纹周产量有所回升，且品种吨钢利润良好，后续仍有增量空间， 供应料将回升。与此同时，螺纹需求迎来改善，高频需求指标环比回升，多为投机需求放量所致， 持续性不强，而下游并无实质性变化，淡季需求弱势未变，继续承压钢价 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of rebar 2510 is a rise, the medium - term view is oscillating on the strong side, and the intraday view is oscillating on the weak side. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that strong raw materials boost the price of steel, causing it to oscillate higher [2]. - The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. Although the steel price is prone to pressure in the off - season, positive expectations are fermenting, and the strong raw materials provide cost support. The market sentiment is warm, supporting the steel price to continue the oscillating upward trend. Attention should be paid to policy changes [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term trend is a rise, the medium - term is oscillating on the strong side, and the intraday is oscillating on the weak side. The reference is to focus on the MA5 line support, with the core logic of strong raw materials boosting steel prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - The strong performance of coking coal and coke boosts market sentiment, and the steel price continues the strong upward trend. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar has not improved. The rebar output has decreased month - on - month, and the supply continues to shrink. But due to good profit per ton and the return of production from some varieties, the output will rise again, with limited positive effects. The rebar demand continues to be weakly stable. The weekly apparent demand has decreased month - on - month, and although high - frequency transactions have increased due to speculative demand, both are at the low levels in the same period in recent years, showing obvious off - season characteristics [3]. - Currently, the rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. The steel price is prone to pressure in the off - season, but positive expectations are fermenting, and the strong raw materials provide cost support. The market sentiment is warm, supporting the steel price to continue the oscillating upward trend. Attention should be paid to policy changes [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate. For rebar 2510, it is expected to fluctuate in the short - and medium - term, and show a weakly fluctuating trend intraday. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA60 line [2][3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", and the intraday view is "weakly fluctuating". The reference opinion is to pay attention to the support at the MA60 line, with the core logic being the weakly stable supply - demand pattern and the continuation of steel price fluctuations [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar continues to operate weakly and stably. Construction steel mills are continuously increasing production, and rebar output is rising, increasing supply pressure. Meanwhile, rebar demand remains seasonally weak, with a slight week - on - week increase in weekly performance, but high - frequency trading remains sluggish, both at the same - period low. The downstream industry has not improved, and the weak demand pattern remains unchanged. With supply rising and demand remaining weak, the fundamentals are weak, and steel prices in the off - season are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factors are the low inventory level, small real - world contradictions, and the strong trend of raw materials. Under the game of long and short factors, steel prices maintain a fluctuating trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 6 月 30 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 原料表现偏强，钢价低位回升 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 周末钢材现货小幅提振，成交表现一般，相应的螺纹钢供需格局延续季节性弱势，建筑钢厂提 产，产量有所增加，供应重回年内相对高位。同时，螺纹需求季节性走弱，高频需求指标偏弱运 行，弱势需求将抑制钢价。总之，市场情绪回暖叠加原料端偏强，钢材期价震荡走高，但螺纹钢供 应在回升，而需求表 ...