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宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250731
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 01:05
宝城期货螺纹钢早报(2025 年 7 月 31 日) ◼ 品种观点参考 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 供需格局弱势,钢价弱势震荡 | 说明: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘价为终点价格, 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 政策预期兑现,市场情绪趋弱,而螺纹钢供需格局弱势运行,建筑钢厂有所提产,螺纹供应如 期回升,且品种吨钢利润良好,后续存有增量空间,压力逐步增加。与此同时,螺纹需求迎来改 善,多因投机需求放量所致,但下游行业并未好转,需求改善力度不强。总之,供需双增局面下螺 纹钢基本面并 ...
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250729
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 01:45
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报(2025 年 7 月 29 日) ◼ 品种观点参考 (仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议) 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 产业逻辑回归,钢价承压运行 | 说明: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘价为终点价格, 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局弱稳运行,螺纹周产量有所回升,且品种吨钢利润良好,后续仍有增量空间, 供应料将回升。与此同时,螺纹需求迎来改善,高频需求指标环比回升,多为投机需求放量所致, 持续性不强,而下游并无实质性变化,淡季需求弱势未变,继续承压钢价 ...
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250723
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 01:47
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of rebar 2510 is a rise, the medium - term view is oscillating on the strong side, and the intraday view is oscillating on the weak side. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that strong raw materials boost the price of steel, causing it to oscillate higher [2]. - The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. Although the steel price is prone to pressure in the off - season, positive expectations are fermenting, and the strong raw materials provide cost support. The market sentiment is warm, supporting the steel price to continue the oscillating upward trend. Attention should be paid to policy changes [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term trend is a rise, the medium - term is oscillating on the strong side, and the intraday is oscillating on the weak side. The reference is to focus on the MA5 line support, with the core logic of strong raw materials boosting steel prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - The strong performance of coking coal and coke boosts market sentiment, and the steel price continues the strong upward trend. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar has not improved. The rebar output has decreased month - on - month, and the supply continues to shrink. But due to good profit per ton and the return of production from some varieties, the output will rise again, with limited positive effects. The rebar demand continues to be weakly stable. The weekly apparent demand has decreased month - on - month, and although high - frequency transactions have increased due to speculative demand, both are at the low levels in the same period in recent years, showing obvious off - season characteristics [3]. - Currently, the rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. The steel price is prone to pressure in the off - season, but positive expectations are fermenting, and the strong raw materials provide cost support. The market sentiment is warm, supporting the steel price to continue the oscillating upward trend. Attention should be paid to policy changes [3].
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250709
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 01:31
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报(2025 年 7 月 9 日) ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA60 一线支撑 | 供需格局弱稳,钢价延续震荡 | 说明: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘价为终点价格, 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局延续弱稳运行,建筑钢厂持续提产,螺纹产量延续回升,供应压力不断增加。 与此同时,螺纹需求延续季节性弱势,周度表现环比微增,而高频成交依旧低迷,且两者均是同期 低位,而下游行业未见好转,弱势需求格局未变。目前来看,螺纹供应回升,而需求延续弱势,基 本面表现偏弱,淡 ...
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250630
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 01:39
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报(2025 年 6 月 30 日) ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 原料表现偏强,钢价低位回升 | 说明: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘价为终点价格, 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 周末钢材现货小幅提振,成交表现一般,相应的螺纹钢供需格局延续季节性弱势,建筑钢厂提 产,产量有所增加,供应重回年内相对高位。同时,螺纹需求季节性走弱,高频需求指标偏弱运 行,弱势需求将抑制钢价。总之,市场情绪回暖叠加原料端偏强,钢材期价震荡走高,但螺纹钢供 应在回升,而需求表 ...
宝城期货螺纹钢周度数据-20250627
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 12:28
本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 周度产量 217.84 5.66 225.51 -7.67 244.76 -26.92 高炉产能利用率(%) 90.83 0.04 90.69 0.14 89.13 1.70 表观需求量 219.91 0.72 248.68 -28.77 235.80 -15.89 钢联建材成交周均值 9.72 -0.02 10.17 -0.45 11.83 -2.11 总库存 549.00 -2.07 581.05 -32.05 784.62 -235.62 厂内库存 185.60 3.28 186.46 -0.86 206.38 -20.78 社会库存 363.40 -5.35 394.59 -31.19 578.24 -214.84 螺纹钢周度数据(20250627) 供给 需求 库存 150 200 250 300 350 400 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 螺纹钢周产量 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 70 75 80 85 90 95 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 1 ...
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250625
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 02:16
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘价为终点价格, 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 宝城期货螺纹钢早报(2025 年 6 月 25 日) ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 基本面季节性弱势,钢价承压运 行 | 说明: 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局弱势运行,建筑钢厂提产,螺纹钢产量再度回升,相对利好则是增幅不大,关 注持续性。不过,螺纹需求表现依然疲弱,周度表需环比微降,而高频成交延续低迷,淡季需求特 征明显。总之,螺纹钢供应小幅回升,而需求延续季节性弱势,供需格局并未好转,淡季钢价承压 运行,相对 ...
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250623
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 01:25
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2510 are shock, shock, and shock - biased upward respectively. It is recommended to focus on the support at the MA5 line, with the core logic being that the real - world contradictions are limited and steel prices are stabilizing in a shock pattern [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2510 are shock, shock, and shock - biased upward respectively. The reference suggestion is to focus on the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the real - world contradictions are limited and steel prices are stabilizing in a shock pattern. The calculation of price changes and criteria for different trends are also explained [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Over the weekend, steel spot prices remained stable. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has seasonally weakened. Construction steel mills have increased production, with the weekly output of rebar slightly increasing but still at a relatively low level, and the supply change is not significant. Meanwhile, rebar demand has seasonally weakened, with weekly apparent demand weakly stable and high - frequency transactions being sluggish. The weak demand is pressuring steel prices. In general, rebar supply is rising while demand continues its seasonal weakness, the fundamentals have not improved, and steel prices are still under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the low inventory and limited real - world contradictions. The short - term trend will maintain a low - level shock pattern, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [3].
宝城期货螺纹钢周度数据-20250620
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 01:56
本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 周度产量 212.18 4.61 225.51 -13.33 230.53 -18.35 高炉产能利用率(%) 90.79 0.21 90.69 0.10 89.76 1.03 表观需求量 219.19 -0.78 248.68 -29.49 235.77 -16.58 钢联建材成交周均值 9.74 -0.22 10.17 -0.43 11.19 -1.45 总库存 551.07 -7.01 581.05 -29.98 775.66 -224.59 厂内库存 182.32 -0.57 186.46 -4.14 202.57 -20.25 社会库存 368.75 -6.44 394.59 -25.84 573.09 -204.34 螺纹钢周度数据(20250620) 供给 需求 库存 150 200 250 300 350 400 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 螺纹钢周产量 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 70 75 80 85 90 95 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 1 ...
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250620
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 01:55
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报(2025 年 6 月 20 日) ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 基本面未改善,钢价低位震荡 | 说明: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘价为终点价格, 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局延续季节性弱势,建筑钢厂有所提产,螺纹钢周产量环比微增,依旧处于相对 低位,关注后续持续性。与此同时,螺纹需求延续季节性走弱,周度表需弱稳运行,而高频成交表 现低迷,弱势需求仍将抑制钢价。目前来看,螺纹钢供应回升,而需求延续季节性弱势,基本面未 见好转,钢价仍将 ...