Core Viewpoint - The dollar is expected to consolidate after a significant depreciation, but concerns over tariffs could make it vulnerable again [1] Group 1: Dollar Vulnerability - Analysts from Erste Group highlight that the dollar remains weak and could face new pressures if tariff concerns resurface [1] - The potential for a trade war escalation could lead to a loss of investor confidence in U.S. assets, further impacting the dollar [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - Weak U.S. economic growth data is cited as a contributing factor to the dollar's fragility [1] - Criticism from Trump towards the Federal Reserve Chairman adds to the uncertainty surrounding the dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Czech National Bank expresses uncertainty regarding the impact of escalating trade wars on inflation [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Monetary Policy** - The Czech National Bank is closely monitoring the effects of trade tensions on economic indicators, particularly inflation [1] - **Economic Outlook** - There is a prevailing uncertainty about how trade conflicts may influence inflation rates in the Czech Republic [1]

Group 1 - The core event in the international gold market is the spot gold price surpassing $3,400 per ounce for the first time, reaching a high of $3,407.73, with a daily increase of 2.25% [1] - The rise in gold prices is driven by four main factors: the dollar credit crisis, escalating trade tensions, central bank gold accumulation, and technical market movements [2][3][4][5] Group 2 - The dollar credit crisis is highlighted by the dollar index dropping to a three-year low of 98.00, raising concerns about the dollar's status as a reserve currency, which in turn boosts gold's appeal as an alternative asset [2] - The escalation of the trade war, with tariffs on China increasing to 245%, has led to fears of supply chain disruptions, prompting a surge in safe-haven investments in gold, with a cumulative price increase of over $700 since 2025 and a year-to-date increase of 26.78% [3] - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with China's reserves reaching 73.7 million ounces and a 3% year-on-year increase in global central bank gold purchases, totaling 1,238 tons, marking the highest level since 2016 [4] - Technical factors include a breakout above the $3,200 resistance level, with speculative long positions increasing by 42,000 contracts in a single day and over $5 billion flowing into global gold ETFs in the first quarter [5] Group 3 - Despite the bullish trend in gold, market sentiment is polarized, with signs of leverage risks emerging as younger investors use credit cards and personal loans to speculate on gold, potentially inflating localized bubbles [7] - Short-term outlook suggests that gold prices may challenge $3,500 due to a weak dollar and geopolitical risks, but overbought signals indicate potential profit-taking risks, with $3,245 as a key support level [9] - Long-term projections indicate that ongoing stagflation risks, U.S. election policy dynamics, and central bank gold purchasing trends will continue to support gold prices, with Goldman Sachs predicting prices could reach $4,000 by 2026, and possibly exceed $4,500 in extreme scenarios [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent decline in gold prices, which fell by 2.53% this week, reflects a significant shift in the global market dynamics, challenging the traditional role of gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2] - On April 4, gold futures for June delivery dropped by 2.76%, closing at $3035.40 per ounce, indicating a severe impact on investor sentiment [1] - The decline in gold prices is linked to a broader market reaction to the U.S. government's tariff policies, which led to a $5 trillion loss in global stock markets over two days, forcing investors to liquidate gold to cover margin calls [1] Group 2 - The current situation is described as a "collapse of trust" in the global trade system, with the U.S. imposing tariffs on over 100 trade partners, prompting unusual joint responses from allies like the EU and Japan [2] - Investors are reassessing their strategies, questioning whether to invest in gold amid escalating trade wars or to hold dollars in response to global economic disorder [2] - The article suggests that the recent volatility in gold prices is a warning sign of the failure of traditional safe-haven logic, highlighting the need for investors to rethink their asset allocation strategies in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape [2]