证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·煤炭开采 煤炭开采行业跟踪周报 港口库存增加，煤价震荡运行 2025 年 05 月 11 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 行业近况 本周（5 月 5 日至 5 月 9 日）港口动力煤现货价环比下跌，报收 630 元 /吨。 供给端，本周环渤海四港区日均调入量 204.23 万吨，环比上周增加 2.21 万吨，增幅 1.10%。矿山产地煤矿正常供应，港口供给略有回升。 需求端，本周环渤海四港区日均调出量174.40万吨，环比上周减少28.60 万吨，减幅 14.09%；日均锚地船舶共 43 艘，环比上周减少 39 艘，降 幅 47.49%。库存端，环渤海四港区库存端 3305.10 万吨，环比上周增加 99.07 万吨，增幅 3.19%。港口本周日均调出量环比下降，受近期水电 补位较好影响。库存端略有增加，同比仍处高位，叠加下游需求偏弱影 响，煤价震荡运行。 我们分析认为：煤炭价格目前主要受库存高位影响、需求刚需为主以及 汛期水电稳增影响导致上涨动能有限，但伴随五一节后逐步进入迎峰 度夏旺季期，煤价或有进一步上行可能。 估值与建议： 仍旧关注 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Add" [1] Core Viewpoints - The current coal prices are primarily influenced by high inventory levels, demand being mainly driven by necessity, and limited upward momentum due to the impact of the flood season on hydropower generation. However, following the May Day holiday, the market is expected to enter a peak summer demand period, which may lead to further price increases [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the incremental insurance funds and the positive growth in premium income, which is increasingly concentrated among leading insurance companies. The ongoing scarcity of fixed-income assets, combined with high dividend assets, suggests a shift towards equity allocation, with a preference for resource stocks [2][38] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - From April 21 to April 25, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3295.06 points, up 0.56% from the previous week. The coal sector index closed at 2548.73 points, down 0.63% [10] - The average daily coal inventory at the four ports in the Bohai Rim decreased to 31.099 million tons, down 2.66% from the previous week [33] 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average daily coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim was 1.8863 million tons, an increase of 7.11% week-on-week. The average daily outflow was 2.0124 million tons, up 35.99% week-on-week [29][33] - The report notes a decrease in the number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim, with an average of 83 vessels, down 4.58% from the previous week [33] 3. Price Trends - The port price for 5500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 655 yuan/ton as of April 24 [17] - The price index for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim remained stable at 678 yuan/ton as of April 23 [19] 4. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on elastic coal stocks, particularly those with low valuations, such as Guanghui Energy and Haohua Energy [2][38]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·煤炭开采 煤炭开采行业跟踪周报 港口库存回落，煤价震荡运行 2025 年 04 月 27 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 行业近况 本周（4 月 21 日至 4 月 25 日）港口动力煤现货价环比下跌，报收 655 元/吨。 供给端，本周环渤海四港区日均调入量188.63万吨，环比上周增加12.51 万吨，增幅 7.11%。矿山产地煤矿正常供应，港口供给略有回升。 需求端，本周环渤海四港区日均调出量201.24万吨，环比上周增加53.26 万吨，增幅 35.99%；日均锚地船舶共 83 艘，环比上周减少 4 艘，降幅 4.58%。库存端，环渤海四港区库存端 3109.9 万吨，环比上周减少 84.9 万吨，降幅 2.66%。港口本周日均调出量环比上涨，受五一节前补库影 响为主。库存端略有下降，同比仍处高位，叠加下游需求淡季影响，煤 价震荡运行。 我们分析认为：煤炭价格目前主要受库存高位影响、需求刚需为主以及 汛期水电稳增影响导致上涨动能有限，但伴随五一节后将逐步进入迎 峰度夏旺季期，煤价或有进一步上行可能。 估值与建议： 仍旧关注保险资金增 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The current coal prices are primarily influenced by the seasonal decline in demand and the stable increase in hydropower during the flood season, limiting upward momentum [1] - Short-term demand remains reliant on long-term contracts and essential purchases by power plants, while non-electric enterprises show weak demand due to warmer weather and high inventory levels, making significant price increases unlikely in the short term [1][2] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - During the week of April 14 to April 18, the spot price of thermal coal at ports decreased by 27 yuan/ton, closing at 663 yuan/ton [1] - The average daily inflow of coal to the four ports in the Bohai Rim was 1.7611 million tons, a decrease of 75,300 tons week-on-week, down 4.10% [1] - The average daily outflow from the same ports was 1.4799 million tons, a decrease of 371,000 tons week-on-week, down 20.04% [1] - The inventory at the Bohai Rim ports increased to 31.948 million tons, up 2.07 million tons week-on-week, an increase of 6.93% [1] Price Trends - The price of thermal coal at the production site showed a slight decline, with the price for 5500 kcal thermal coal in Datong at 555 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton [18] - The price for 6000 kcal thermal block coal in Yanzhou decreased by 90 yuan/ton, closing at 800 yuan/ton [18] - The Bohai Rim thermal coal price index remained stable at 678 yuan/ton [21] Market Dynamics - The report highlights a continued focus on the influx of insurance capital, with premium income maintaining positive growth concentrated towards leading insurance companies [2][37] - The report recommends focusing on elastic stocks in thermal coal, particularly those with low valuations such as Guanghui Energy and Haohua Energy [2][37] Shipping and Logistics - Domestic shipping costs increased by 2.45 yuan/ton, closing at 37.45 yuan/ton, a rise of 6.95% [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The current coal prices are primarily affected by weaker-than-expected demand and high inventory levels, limiting upward momentum. Short-term demand is expected to rely on long-term contracts and essential purchases from power plants, while non-electric enterprises show weak demand as temperatures warm in March. Therefore, significant increases in coal prices are unlikely in the short term [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the incremental insurance funds and suggests a preference for resource stocks due to ongoing fixed-income asset shortages and high dividend asset levels [2] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - During the week from February 24 to February 28, the spot price of thermal coal at ports decreased to 690 CNY/ton, reflecting a downward trend [1] - Daily average coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim region was 1.7946 million tons, a slight increase of 0.0043 million tons (0.24%) from the previous week. Meanwhile, daily average coal outflow increased to 1.8576 million tons, up by 0.2671 million tons (16.80%) [1][24] - The inventory level at the ports was 29.275 million tons, down by 0.41 million tons (1.37%) from the previous week, indicating a marginal reduction in inventory despite still being at a high absolute level [1][29] Price Trends - As of February 28, the price of thermal coal at major production areas showed a mixed trend, with Dazhou South District 5500 kcal thermal coal price decreasing by 18 CNY/ton to 552 CNY/ton, while Inner Mongolia's 4000 kcal thermal coal price remained stable at 380 CNY/ton [13] - The Bohai Rim thermal coal price index fell by 2 CNY/ton to 694 CNY/ton, while the Qinhuangdao port price for 5500 kcal thermal coal decreased by 29 CNY/ton to 690 CNY/ton [15] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on elastic stocks in the thermal coal sector, particularly those with low valuations such as Guanghui Energy and Haohua Energy [2][32]