Core Viewpoint - The "Yarlung Tsangpo River Hydropower" concept has gained renewed attention, significantly impacting the stock performance of related companies like Shen Shui Gui Yuan, which has seen a stock price increase of over 90% since July 21 [2][4]. Company Overview - Shen Shui Gui Yuan is a state-owned enterprise under the Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, specializing in providing surveying, design, planning consulting, and project management services for water engineering [4]. - The company holds various qualifications, including Class A in water conservancy engineering design and comprehensive Class A in engineering surveying, as well as Class B in hydropower engineering design [4]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, Shen Shui Gui Yuan reported total revenue of 855 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.14%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 52.83 million yuan, a substantial increase of 278.10% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 48.10 million yuan, up 206.42% [4]. - In the first quarter of this year, the company experienced a decline in performance, with total revenue of 96.52 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.40%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 29.46 million yuan, down 125.25% year-on-year [4]. Project Involvement - The groundbreaking ceremony for the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project took place on July 19, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan. The project will construct five cascade power stations with an expected installed capacity of 60 to 81 million kilowatts and an annual power generation of 300 billion kilowatt-hours, equivalent to "recreating three Three Gorges" [4]. - Shen Shui Gui Yuan has relevant experience in water surveying and design, particularly in the Tibet region, where it has previously completed the Dangdui Hydropower Station, a key water conservancy project in Tibet [4][5]. - The company has indicated that it is closely monitoring developments related to the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project but has not yet participated in its construction. However, it possesses the qualifications to undertake hydropower station projects [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the significant stock price surge of Shenzhen Water Planning Institute (深水规院), driven by the renewed interest in the "Yarlung Tsangpo River Hydropower" concept, with the stock hitting a 20% limit up and achieving a cumulative increase of over 90% since July 21 [2][5][6] - As of the close on July 29, the company's stock price was reported at 30.67 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 6.842 billion yuan and a trading volume of 1.052 billion yuan [2][3] - The company specializes in providing surveying, design, planning consulting, and project management services for water engineering, holding various qualifications in the water conservancy and hydropower sectors [2][5] Group 2 - In terms of financial performance, the company reported total operating revenue of 855 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.14%, while net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 278.10% to 52.83 million yuan [5] - However, the first quarter of the current year showed a decline in performance, with total operating revenue of 96.52 million yuan, down 11.40% year-on-year, and a net loss of 29.46 million yuan, a decrease of 125.25% compared to the same period last year [5] - The company has experience in water surveying and design, particularly in relation to the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, which has a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan and aims to construct five hydropower stations with a total installed capacity of 60 to 81 million kilowatts [5][6]

雅下水电概念板块短线拉升，山河智能（002097）、西宁特钢（600117）此前涨停，西藏天路 （600326）、华新水泥（600801）、中设股份（002883）、基康技术、苏博特（603916）等跟涨。 ...

Group 1 - The stock price of Tibet Tourism reached 21.19 CNY per share, with a 10% increase, resulting in a total market value of 4.8 billion CNY, marking an 8-year high [1] - The surge in Tibet Tourism's stock price is linked to the commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project, which has led to a wave of涨停 (limit-up) in related stocks, despite Tibet Tourism not being directly involved in any engineering business [1][2] - From July 21 to July 28, the stock experienced a net inflow of main funds, with significant contributions from large orders, indicating strong buying interest [1] Group 2 - Tibet Tourism issued four risk warning announcements regarding its stock price, indicating potential market overheating and irrational speculation due to the recent price surge [2] - The company anticipates a net profit of approximately 2 million CNY for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from losses, although the core business remains under pressure [2] - The sale of 80% of its stake in Jiangxi Xinyi Tourism Development Co., Ltd. for 8.304 million CNY was completed during the reporting period, contributing to the expected profit [2] Group 3 - The Yarlung Zangbo hydropower project is expected to create numerous job opportunities, potentially increasing tourist traffic and local consumption in Tibet [3] - The tourism business is the core revenue driver for Tibet Tourism, with 2024 revenue from tourism attractions projected at 163 million CNY, accounting for 76.5% of total revenue [3] - The company is actively addressing transportation issues caused by major project launches in the Linzhi area, which may impact access to tourist sites [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent data indicates a decline in A-share trading volume and significant net outflows from major sectors, particularly in the Belt and Road Initiative, state-owned enterprise reform, and hydropower concepts [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.44% over the past three days [1] - A-share trading volume decreased by 2.23% compared to the previous three days [1] Group 2: Major Sector Outflows - The sectors with the largest net outflows include: - Belt and Road Initiative: net outflow of 25.299 billion yuan, with a decline of 0.85% [1] - State-owned Enterprise Reform: net outflow of 24.869 billion yuan, with a decline of 0.09% [1] - Hydropower Concept: net outflow of 19.880 billion yuan, with a decline of 1.19% [1] - Other notable sectors with significant outflows include: - Water Conservancy: net outflow of 16.960 billion yuan, with a decline of 1.30% [1] - Western Development: net outflow of 14.848 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.27% [1] - Wind Power: net outflow of 14.624 billion yuan, with a decline of 0.44% [1] Group 3: Individual Stock Performance - The largest individual stock declines within the major outflow sectors include: - South Mining Group: down 21.08% [1] - GuoJi Heavy Industry: down 16.38% [1] - Huahua Co.: down 19.73% [1]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Broad-based Index Rotation Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy is based on the marginal changes in the "heat" (attention) of broad-based indices. By identifying the index with the highest weekly heat change rate, the strategy rotates into that index. If the "Other" group (stocks not included in the four main indices) has the highest heat change rate, the strategy remains in cash[7][13]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the weekly heat change rate for the components of four major indices (CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000) and the "Other" group. 2. Smooth the weekly heat change rate using a 2-week moving average (MA2). 3. At the end of each week, invest in the index with the highest MA2 heat change rate. If the "Other" group has the highest rate, remain in cash[13][16]. - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy demonstrates a clear logic of leveraging market sentiment shifts to generate returns[13]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Broad-based Index Rotation Strategy - **Annualized Return**: 8.74% since 2017[16] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 23.5%[16] - **2025 YTD Return**: 20.9%[16] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Total Heat Indicator - **Factor Construction Idea**: The total heat indicator aggregates the attention metrics (e.g., browsing, watchlist additions, and clicks) of individual stocks. It is normalized as a percentage of the total market and scaled by 10,000. This indicator serves as a proxy for market sentiment[7]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Aggregate the browsing, watchlist, and click counts for each stock. 2. Normalize the aggregated value as a percentage of the total market. 3. Multiply the normalized value by 10,000 to obtain the total heat indicator, with a range of [0, 10,000][7]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures market sentiment and can be used to identify mispricing due to overreaction or underreaction[7]. 2. Factor Name: Weekly Heat Change Rate (MA2) - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the weekly change in the total heat indicator, smoothed using a 2-week moving average. It reflects short-term sentiment dynamics[13][20]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the weekly change rate of the total heat indicator for each stock. 2. Smooth the weekly change rate using a 2-week moving average (MA2)[13][20]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is useful for identifying short-term sentiment-driven opportunities in broad-based indices, industries, and concepts[13][20]. 3. Factor Name: Concept Heat Ranking - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor ranks concepts based on their weekly heat change rates. It identifies the top and bottom concepts for constructing portfolios[28][31]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Rank concepts by their weekly heat change rates. 2. Select the top 5 concepts with the highest heat change rates. 3. Construct two portfolios: - **TOP Portfolio**: Select the top 10 stocks with the highest total heat within each of the top 5 concepts. - **BOTTOM Portfolio**: Select the bottom 10 stocks with the lowest total heat within each of the top 5 concepts[31]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor captures the behavioral tendencies of investors, leveraging the rapid price adjustments in high-attention stocks[28][31]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Total Heat Indicator - **No specific backtesting results provided** 2. Weekly Heat Change Rate (MA2) - **No specific backtesting results provided** 3. Concept Heat Ranking - **BOTTOM Portfolio Annualized Return**: 15.71%[33] - **BOTTOM Portfolio Maximum Drawdown**: 28.89%[33] - **2025 YTD Return for BOTTOM Portfolio**: 29.2%[33]

Core Viewpoint - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has significantly boosted the stock price of Shenzhen State-owned enterprise Shen Shui Gui Yuan, leading to a cumulative increase of 60% over three consecutive trading days [2][3]. Group 1: Project Overview - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, inaugurated on July 19, has a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, aiming to construct five tiered power stations with an expected installed capacity of 60 to 81 million kilowatts and an annual power generation of 300 billion kilowatt-hours, equivalent to "recreating three Three Gorges" [3]. - The hydropower concept stocks surged collectively, with the Tonghuashun Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower concept index rising by 12.52% on the opening day following the announcement [3]. Group 2: Company Performance - Shen Shui Gui Yuan reported a total operating revenue of 855 million yuan for the year 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 52.83 million yuan, which represents a substantial increase of 278.10% [4]. - However, in the first quarter of this year, the company experienced a decline in performance, with operating revenue of 96.52 million yuan, down 11.40% year-on-year, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 29.46 million yuan, a decrease of 125.25% [4]. Group 3: Market Activity - During the stock price surge of Shen Shui Gui Yuan, institutional and speculative trading activities were prominent, with a net buying of 16.60 million yuan recorded on July 23, including 8.38 million yuan from institutions and 9.91 million yuan from notable speculative traders [6]. - The company confirmed that there were no undisclosed matters that could significantly impact its stock price, ensuring transparency in its trading activities [6].

Market Overview - On July 25, the market experienced fluctuations with 2,700 stocks declining, over 2,500 stocks rising, 49 stocks hitting the daily limit up, and 15 stocks hitting the daily limit down [1]. Stock Performance - Notable stocks with significant performance included: - Xizang Tianlu (600326) with a 5-day limit up, closing at 15.43, a rise of 9.98%, and a turnover rate of 45.81%, with a transaction volume of 93.37 billion [2][9]. - Sannong Machinery (001226) achieved a 3-day limit up, closing at 42.99, with a rise of 10.01% and a turnover rate of 0.68% [2]. - Rainbow Group (003023) also saw a 3-day limit up, closing at 27.41, with a rise of 9.99% and a turnover rate of 24.76% [2]. Sector Focus - Market hotspots included lithography machines, multi-modal AI, Hainan Free Trade Zone, and Yaxia hydropower concepts, with significant declines in the latter [3]. - High-performing stocks in the Yaxia hydropower concept included Xining Special Steel and Xizang Tianlu, both achieving 5 consecutive limit ups [3]. Trading Dynamics - The top three net buying stocks on the daily leaderboard were Xizang Tianlu (5.42 billion), InSai Group (1.54 billion), and Astone (1.51 billion) [5]. - The top three net selling stocks were Anglikang (2.86 billion), Caesar Travel (2.68 billion), and Zhonghua Rock Soil (2.14 billion) [6]. Institutional Activity - Institutional net buying was significant in stocks like Weiman Sealing (28.48 million), Yiming Pharmaceutical (27.39 million), and Zhonghua Rock Soil (24.99 million) [7]. - Conversely, institutional net selling was prominent in Anglikang (3.03 billion), Huaxin Cement (1.77 billion), and Boyun New Materials (1.43 billion) [8]. Company Announcements - Xizang Tianlu announced abnormal stock fluctuations due to a cumulative price deviation exceeding 20% over two trading days [12]. - InSai Group is advancing a project to acquire 80% of the Zhizhe brand, a well-known public relations service provider, with projected revenue growth of 38.52% for 2024 [17]. Notable Trends - The market showed a trend of high turnover rates in stocks like Xizang Tianlu and InSai Group, indicating strong investor interest and activity [2][15]. - The overall market sentiment reflected a mix of bullish and bearish trends, with certain sectors like AI and hydropower gaining traction while others faced declines [3][4].

Market Performance - The Yaxia Hydropower concept declined by 3.68%, ranking among the top declines in the concept sector, with Deepwater Institute hitting a 20% limit down [1] - Major stocks in the Yaxia Hydropower concept that experienced significant declines include China Electric Power Construction (-3.09%), Tibet Tianlu (-9.98%), and China Energy Construction (-9.63%) [2][3] - Conversely, stocks that saw gains include Xining Special Steel (+10.14%), Shanghai Mechanical Electrical (+10.02%), and Tibet Tianlu (+9.98%) [1][3] Capital Flow - The Yaxia Hydropower concept saw a net outflow of 10.409 billion yuan, with 55 stocks experiencing net outflows, and 16 stocks seeing outflows exceeding 1 billion yuan [1] - The largest net outflow was from China Electric Power Construction, totaling 2.377 billion yuan, followed by Tibet Tianlu and Hainan Huatie with outflows of 2.112 billion yuan and 805 million yuan, respectively [1] - Stocks with notable net inflows included Shanghai Mechanical Electrical (153 million yuan), Wenke Co. (55.775 million yuan), and Yuyue Medical (26.588 million yuan) [1][3]

Group 1 - The horse racing concept sector declined by 2.40%, ranking among the top declines in concept sectors, with *ST Zhengping hitting the limit down, and companies like Luoniushan, Hainan Rubber, and Zhujiang Piano also experiencing significant declines [1] - Among the horse racing concept stocks, only two saw price increases, with Zhongmu Co. rising by 0.25% and Xinhua Dou by 0.15% [1] - The horse racing concept sector experienced a net outflow of 138 million yuan from main funds today, with Luoniushan leading the outflow at 94.32 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The top gainers in concept sectors included Sora concept (2.98%), lithography machines (2.79%), and multimodal AI (2.30%), while the Hainan Free Trade Zone and horse racing concept were among the largest decliners [2] - The main fund outflow rankings for the horse racing concept included Luoniushan (-5.54%), *ST Zhengping (-4.88%), and Hainan Rubber (-5.45%) [2] - The trading turnover rate for Luoniushan was 10.64%, while *ST Zhengping had a turnover rate of 4.64% [2]