集装箱产业风险管理
Search documents
集装箱产业风险管理日报-20250916
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 06:24
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Today, the container shipping index (European line) futures opened with a significant upward movement and then continued to fluctuate upwards. Except for EC2510, all other contracts saw varying degrees of price increases. The short - term price of the futures is likely to continue a volatile trend, and intraday short - term operations are recommended for unilateral trading. The partial contract price correction today is due to a short - term rebound from last week's low and the emotional bullishness caused by Hamas suspending negotiations with Israel [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 EC Risk Management Strategy Advice - For position management, if one has existing positions but the shipping capacity is full or the booked cargo volume is poor, and is worried about a decline in freight rates (long spot exposure), to prevent losses, one can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) to lock in profits at an entry range of 1250 - 1350 [2]. - For cost management, if shipping companies increase blank sailings or the peak season is approaching, and one wants to book cabins according to orders (short spot exposure), to prevent an increase in transportation costs due to rising freight rates, one can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at an entry range of 1000 - 1100 to determine the booking cost in advance [2]. 3.2 Core Contradiction - The container shipping index (European line) futures showed an upward trend today. In the EC2510 contract, long positions decreased by 7 to 26383, short positions increased by 406 to 27849, and trading volume decreased by 8913 to 21070 (bilateral). The price correction of some contracts is due to a short - term rebound from last week's low and the emotional impact of Hamas suspending negotiations with Israel. The SCFIS European line's decline has slightly converged, and the futures price is likely to continue a volatile trend. Unilateral operations are best done intraday [3]. 3.3 Bullish Interpretation - On the 14th local time, Hamas senior official Tahir Nunu stated that Hamas has suspended negotiations with Israel regarding a cease - fire in the Gaza Strip and the exchange of detainees [4]. 3.4 Futures Basis and Price - The futures underlying SCFIS European line continues to decline. The basis of EC2510 on September 16 was 277.14 points, with a daily decrease of 5.50 points and a weekly decrease of 6.32 points. For example, the closing price of EC2510 was 1163.1 points, with a daily increase of 0.48% and a weekly decrease of 9.35% [5]. 3.5 Spot Freight Quotes - According to the "European Line Freight Rate Note" on September 22, the total quote for 20GP of Maersk's ships departing from Shanghai to Rotterdam was $997, and for 40GP was $1669, both remaining the same as the previous period [8]. 3.6 Global Freight Rate Index - The SCFIS European line index was 1440.24 points, a decrease of 126.22 points (- 8.06%) from the previous value; the SCFIS US - West line index was 1349.84 points, an increase of 369.36 points (37.67%) [9]. 3.7 Global Major Port Waiting Times - On September 15, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 1.652 days, an increase of 0.173 days from the previous day; the waiting time at Shanghai Port was 1.632 days, an increase of 0.014 days [14]. 3.8 Ship Speed and Waiting Ships in Suez Canal - On September 15, the average speed of 8000 + container ships was 15.666 knots, a decrease of 0.14 knots from the previous day; the number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor was 10, a decrease of 1 from the previous day [23].
集装箱产业风险管理日报-20250912
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 13:24
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The container shipping index (European line) futures continued to fluctuate downward. As of the close, all contract prices declined to varying degrees. The EC2510 contract saw a reduction in long positions by 948 lots to 26,451 lots and a reduction in short positions by 1,167 lots to 27,579 lots, with trading volume decreasing by 5,185 lots to 30,843 lots (bilateral). The mainstream shipping companies continued to lower freight rates during the current off - season, and the short - term futures prices are likely to maintain a relatively downward trend. It is recommended to adopt a quick - in - quick - out strategy, while also being cautious of potential rebounds after the futures prices reach short - term lows [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - For position management, if one has already obtained positions but the shipping capacity is full or the booked cargo volume is poor, and there are concerns about freight rate drops, with a long spot exposure, to prevent losses, one can short the container shipping index futures based on the company's positions to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a selling range of 1300 - 1400 [2]. - For cost management, if shipping companies increase the frequency of blank sailings or the peak season is approaching, and one hopes to book cabins according to order situations, with a short spot exposure, to prevent freight rate increases and rising transportation costs, one can buy the container shipping index futures at present to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a buying range of 1000 - 1100 [2]. Core Contradictions - The container shipping index (European line) futures continued to decline. The reduction in long and short positions in the EC2510 contract and the decrease in trading volume, along with the continuous reduction of freight rate quotes by shipping companies, indicate that short - term futures prices are likely to remain in a downward trend. A quick - in - quick - out trading strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to potential rebounds [3]. Bullish Interpretations - MSC, Maersk, and HMM have successively announced their Golden Week blank sailing plans [4]. Bearish Interpretations - ONE followed up by lowering the European line quotes for late September in the online cabin - booking quotes of shipping companies. - The attack on Qatar by Israel has led to a tense situation in the region, which may have an impact on the container shipping market [5]. EC Basis and Price Information - The basis of EC contracts shows different degrees of daily and weekly changes. For example, the basis of EC2510 was 408.86 points, with a daily increase of 46.20 points and a weekly increase of 157.70 points [5]. - The closing prices of EC contracts also declined to varying degrees. For example, the closing price of EC2510 was 1157.6 points, with a daily decline of 5.02% and a weekly decline of 7.45% [6]. Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes - On September 22, Maersk's 20GP total quote for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route increased by $5 to $997, and the 40GP total quote increased by $10 to $1669 compared to the previous period. - In mid - to - late September, ONE's 20GP total quote for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route decreased by $190 to $1354, and the 40GP total quote decreased by $300 to $1643 compared to the previous period [8]. Global Freight Rate Indexes - SCFIS European route dropped by 11.68% to 1566.46 points; SCFIS US - West route dropped by 3.30% to 980.48 points. - SCFI European route decreased by 12.24% to $1154 per TEU; SCFI US - West route increased by 8.27% to $2370 per FEU [9]. Global Port Waiting Times - The waiting times at ports such as Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Yantian increased on September 11 compared to the previous day, while the waiting times at ports such as Jakarta, Long Beach, and Savannah decreased [16]. Ship Speed and Waiting Ship Numbers in Suez Canal - The average speeds of 8000 + and 3000 + container ships increased slightly on September 11 compared to the previous day, while the average speed of 1000 + container ships decreased slightly. The number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage increased from 8 to 21 [25].
集装箱产业风险管理日报-20250911
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 12:14
Report Overview - The report is the Container Industry Risk Management Daily Report dated September 11, 2025, released by Nanhua Research Institute [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The container shipping index (European line) futures opened significantly lower and declined today. The short - term futures prices are likely to maintain a relative downward trend, but a rebound after reaching short - term lows should be guarded against. It is recommended to adopt a quick - in - and - quick - out strategy [3] Summary by Relevant Content EC Risk Management Strategy - For position management, if the position has been taken but the shipping capacity is full or the booked cargo volume is poor, and there are concerns about freight rate drops, one can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1300 - 1400 to lock in profits [2] - For cost management, if the shipping companies increase the number of blank sailings or the peak season is approaching, and one wants to book cabins according to orders, one can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1000 - 1100 to determine the booking cost in advance [2] Core Contradiction - As of the close, all contract prices of the container shipping index (European line) futures declined. For the EC2510 contract, long positions increased by 2011 lots to 27563 lots, short positions increased by 943 lots to 28905 lots, and trading volume increased by 19234 lots to 36335 lots (bilateral) [3] - Maersk's new weekly opening quotation was lower than the previous value, and the price of 20 - foot containers fell below $1000. CMA CGM and Evergreen also followed to lower the European line quotations, dragging down the futures price valuation [3] 利多解读 (Positive Interpretation) - In July 2025, China's automobile exports continued to show a trend of increasing volume and price. The number of automobile exports was 694,000, a year - on - year increase of 25.6% and a month - on - month increase of 12.1%. The total import and export volume of automobile commodities was $24.98 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7% and a month - on - month increase of 6.4%. The export amount was $20.48 billion, a year - on - year increase of 13.6% and a month - on - month increase of 6% [4] EC Basis and Price Changes - The basis and price of each EC contract showed different degrees of daily and weekly changes on September 11, 2025. For example, the basis of EC2510 was 362.66 points, with a daily increase of 63.60 points and a weekly decrease of 110.24 points. The closing price of EC2510 was 1203.8 points, with a daily decrease of 5.02% and a weekly decrease of 7.45% [6][7] Spot Freight Quotations - Maersk's 20 - foot and 40 - foot container quotations for Shanghai - Rotterdam routes in mid - to - late September showed fluctuations. Some quotations increased slightly, while others decreased significantly. For example, on September 25, the opening quotation of 20 - foot containers decreased by $90 compared to the previous week [9] - CMA CGM and Evergreen also lowered their quotations for Shanghai - Rotterdam routes in mid - to - late September [9] Global Freight Index - The SCFIS European route index was 1566.46 points, a decrease of 11.68% compared to the previous value; the SCFIS US West route index was 980.48 points, a decrease of 3.30% [10] - The SCFI European route was $1315 per TEU, a decrease of 11.21%; the SCFI US West route was $2189 per FEU, an increase of 13.83% [10] Global Port Waiting Time - The waiting times of major global ports on September 10, 2025, showed different changes compared to September 9, 2025. For example, the waiting time at Shanghai Port increased by 0.251 days to 1.506 days, while the waiting time at Singapore Port decreased by 0.233 days to 0.690 days [17] Ship Speed and Waiting Ships - The speeds of container ships of different sizes on September 10, 2025, showed slight increases compared to September 9, 2025. For example, the speed of 8000 + container ships increased by 0.081 knots to 15.798 knots [25] - The number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor decreased by 3 to 8 on September 10, 2025, compared to September 9, 2025 [25]
集装箱产业风险管理日报-20250910
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-10 10:47
Report Information - Report Title: Container Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 10, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Fu Xiaoyan [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The intraday trend of the container shipping index (European line) futures was in line with expectations, with the main contract being undervalued but lacking driving forces, resulting in a stalemate [3]. - For hedgers, the strategy suggested yesterday can be attempted. When the futures price does not drop significantly (>30%), the "selling options + buying futures" combination has a high probability of maintaining profitability [3]. - Operationally, it is recommended to enter and exit quickly [3]. Summary by Directory EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - For position management, if one has already obtained positions but the shipping capacity is full or the booked cargo volume is poor, and there are concerns about falling freight rates, to prevent losses, one can short container shipping index futures based on the company's positions to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a suggested selling entry range of 1350 - 1450 [2]. - For cost management, if shipping companies increase blank sailings or the market peak season is approaching, and one hopes to book shipping spaces according to order situations, to prevent rising freight rates from increasing transportation costs, one can buy container shipping index futures at present to determine the booking cost in advance. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a suggested buying entry range of 1150 - 1250 [2]. Core Contradictions - In the morning session of the container shipping index (European line) futures, there was obvious early buying by bulls, but they were defeated by the weak spot market expectations. The market was in a stalemate between bulls and bears and ended in consolidation [3]. - As of the close, all contracts had varying degrees of position increases, with the EC2512 contract having the largest increase in positions. Except for the two rebounding forward contracts, it had the smallest decline [3]. - From the changes in the positions of the top 20 institutional holders on the exchange, in the EC2510 contract, bulls reduced their positions by 293 to 25,913, bears increased their positions by 288 to 28,509, and the trading volume decreased by 7,636 to 17,281 (bilateral) [3]. Bullish Interpretations - In July 2025, China's automobile exports continued to show a trend of increasing volume and price. The number of automobile exports reached 694,000, a year-on-year increase of 25.6% and a month-on-month increase of 12.1%. The total import and export volume of automobile products was $24.98 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7% and a month-on-month increase of 6.4%. Among them, the export amount was $20.48 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.6% and a month-on-month increase of 6% [4]. - MSC, Maersk, and HMM have successively announced their suspension plans for the Golden Week [4]. Bearish Interpretations - The net profit of the global container shipping industry declined significantly in the second quarter of this year. According to a report by a shipping finance analyst, the shipping industry achieved a net income of $4.4 billion in the second quarter, a sharp drop of 56% from the first quarter's $9.9 billion and a significant decline of 63.7% compared to the same period in 2024 [5]. - According to the daily "Freight Rate Note" data, in mid - to late September, the average online booking quote for 20GP containers by shipping companies continued to decline, while the average quote for 40GP containers remained stable [5]. EC Basis Daily Changes - On September 10, 2025, the basis of EC2510 was 299.06 points, with a daily increase of 1.30 points and a weekly decrease of 151.54 points [7]. - The basis of EC2512 was -107.54 points, with a daily increase of 8.90 points and a weekly decrease of 179.94 points [7]. - The basis of EC2602 was 42.46 points, with a daily increase of 3.40 points and a weekly decrease of 197.14 points [7]. - The basis of EC2604 was 320.46 points, with a daily increase of 10.70 points and a weekly decrease of 198.04 points [7]. - The basis of EC2606 was 122.56 points, with a daily decrease of 9.40 points and a weekly decrease of 209.94 points [7]. - The basis of EC2608 was -33.54 points, with a daily increase of 8 points and a weekly decrease of 197.64 points [7]. EC Price and Spreads - On September 10, 2025, the closing price of EC2510 was 1267.4 points, with a daily decrease of 0.10% and a weekly decrease of 4.20% [7]. - The closing price of EC2512 was 1674.0 points, with a daily decrease of 0.53% and a weekly decrease of 1.60% [7]. - The closing price of EC2602 was 1524.0 points, with a daily decrease of 0.22% and a weekly decrease of 0.65% [7]. - The closing price of EC2604 was 1246.0 points, with a daily decrease of 0.28% and a weekly decrease of 0.73% [7]. - The closing price of EC2606 was 1443.9 points, with a daily increase of 0.66% and a weekly increase of 0.19% [7]. - The closing price of EC2608 was 1600.0 points, with a daily decrease of 0.39% and a weekly decrease of 0.59% [7]. Container Shipping Spot Quotes - On September 18, for Maersk's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP containers was $1050, a decrease of $52 compared to the September 17 schedule, and the total quote for 40GP containers was $1760, a decrease of $88 compared to the September 17 schedule [9]. - On September 18, for Hapag - Lloyd's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the quote for 20GP containers was $1035, an increase of $100 compared to the September 17 schedule, and the quote for 40GP containers was $1535, a decrease of $200 compared to the September 17 schedule [9]. - On September 25, for ONE's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the quote for 20GP containers was $1244, a decrease of $300 compared to the September 22 schedule, and the quote for 40GP containers was $1943, unchanged from the September 22 schedule [9]. Shipping Index Changes - The SCFIS European route index was 1566.46 points, a decrease of 207.14 points or 11.68% compared to the previous value [10]. - The SCFIS US - West route index was 980.48 points, a decrease of 33.42 points or 3.30% compared to the previous value [10]. - The SCFI European route was $1315/TEU, a decrease of $166 or 11.21% compared to the previous value [10]. - The SCFI US - West route was $2189/FEU, an increase of $266 or 13.83% compared to the previous value [10]. - The XSI European line was $2324/FEU, a decrease of $32 or 1.36% compared to the previous value [10]. - The XSI US - West line was $2248/FEU, an increase of $54 or 2.5% compared to the previous value [10]. - The FBX composite freight rate index was $2080/FEU, an increase of $44 or 2.16% compared to the previous value [10]. Global Major Port Waiting Times - On September 9, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 0.830 days, a decrease of 0.393 days compared to September 8 and 1.434 days compared to the same period last year [17]. - The waiting time at Shanghai Port was 1.697 days, an increase of 0.374 days compared to September 8 and 1.183 days compared to the same period last year [17]. - The waiting time at Yantian Port was 0.807 days, a decrease of 0.134 days compared to September 8 [17]. - The waiting time at Singapore Port was 0.569 days, a decrease of 0.193 days compared to September 8 and 0.453 days compared to the same period last year [17]. - The waiting time at Jakarta Port was 1.422 days, an increase of 0.329 days compared to September 8 and 1.454 days compared to the same period last year [17]. - The waiting time at Long Beach Port was 1.849 days, an increase of 0.247 days compared to September 8 and 1.925 days compared to the same period last year [17]. - The waiting time at Savannah Port was 1.953 days, an increase of 0.980 days compared to September 8 and 1.403 days compared to the same period last year [17]. Ship Speeds and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Ports - On September 9, 2025, the speed of container ships with a capacity of over 8000 TEU was 15.852 knots, a decrease of 0.017 knots compared to September 8 and 15.904 knots compared to the same period last year [26]. - The speed of container ships with a capacity of over 3000 TEU was 14.789 knots, a decrease of 0.084 knots compared to September 8 and 15.205 knots compared to the same period last year [26]. - The speed of container ships with a capacity of over 1000 TEU was 13.29 knots, an increase of 0.062 knots compared to September 8 and 13.525 knots compared to the same period last year [26]. - The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorages was 20, a decrease of 2 compared to September 8 and an increase of 8 compared to the same period last year [26].