Group 1 - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (composite index) reported at 2088.24 points as of June 13, reflecting a decrease of 152.11 points compared to the previous period [1] - The China Export Container Freight Index reported at 1243.05 points, showing an increase of 7.6% compared to the previous period [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping market is affected by multiple factors including tariff policies, geopolitical situations, and spot freight rates. The market is in a state of multi - empty game with uncertain outcomes for the implementation of liner companies' price increases [3]. - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates in the future [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Index - On May 12, the NCFI (composite index) was 1014.55 points, up 6.53% from the previous period; the SCFIS (European route) was 1265.30 points, down 2.9%; the NCFI (European route) was 750.91 points, down 0.78%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1446.36 points, down 0.6%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1813.08 points, up 23.18% [2]. - On May 16, the SCFI was 1479.39 points, down 134.22 points from the previous period; the CCFI (composite index) was 1104.88 points, down 0.1%; the SCFI European route price was 1154 USD/TEU, down 0.60%; the CCFI (European route) was 1430.35 points, down 1.0%; the SCFI US West route was 3091 USD/FEU, up 31.70%; the CCFI (US West route) was 876.92 points, up 2.2% [2]. Economic Data - In March, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the Caixin China manufacturing PMI was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - In April, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI initial value was 48.7 (expected 47.5), the service PMI initial value was 49.7 (expected 50.5), and the composite PMI initial value was 50.1 (expected 50.3) [2]. - In April, the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI initial value was 50.7 (expected 49.1), the service PMI initial value was 51.4 (expected 52.8), and the composite PMI initial value was 51.2 (expected 52.2) [3]. Market Influencing Factors - Tariffs have been added as a trade negotiation tool, increasing uncertainty in the shipping market. The easing of the Sino - US trade war may lead to a rush of shipments in 90 days, which is beneficial for the digestion of US - bound shipping capacity, but price wars among alliances cannot be avoided [3]. - The Houthi rebels announced a maritime blockade of Haifa, Israel on May 19, which may affect shipping routes and freight rates [5]. - The new US government's tariff policy has brought more negative impacts than expected, causing uncertainty for shipping companies [5]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Due to the volatile external policies, it is difficult to operate. It is recommended to focus on medium - to - long - term contracts if participating [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate pattern, but the window period is short and volatile. Currently, a positive arbitrage structure is recommended [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when prices reach a high level, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then try to go long on the freight rate rebound [4]. Contract Information - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is 16% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is 26% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Multiple liner companies have announced a price increase for early June, leading to a significant rise in the near - month contracts of US - bound shipping rates, which is in line with the daily report's expectations. It is recommended to take profits when the price reaches a high point. Attention should be paid to the capacity allocation of US - bound routes within 90 days and the feedback of terminal demand under the easing of tariff policies [2][4]. 3. Summary by Content a. Shipping Rate Index - On May 12, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1302.62 points, a 5.5% decrease from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1455.31 points, a 10.2% increase from the previous period. - On May 9, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 952.32 points, a 2.37% increase from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 756.79 points, a 0.94% decrease from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1471.92 points, a 0.41% decrease from the previous period. - On May 9, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1345.17 points, a decrease of 4.24 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1161 USD/TEU, a 3.3% decrease from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route price was 2347 USD/FEU, a 3.3% increase from the previous period. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1106.38 points, a 1.3% decrease from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1445.24 points, a 3.5% decrease from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 857.65 points, a 2.4% increase from the previous period [2]. b. PMI Data - In March, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.5%, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous month; the Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 51.2, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, reaching a four - month high. - In April, the preliminary value of the Eurozone's Manufacturing PMI was 48.7 (expected 47.5), the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 49.7 (expected 50.5), and the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.9). The Eurozone's Sentix Investor Confidence Index was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous value - 2.9). - In April, the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 50.7 (expected 49.1, final value in March 50.2), the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 51.4 (expected 52.8, final value in March 54.4), and the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 51.2 (expected 52.2, final value in March 53.5) [2][3]. c. Trade and Policy - Tariffs have become a means of trade negotiation, adding significant uncertainty to future shipping trends. Although the easing of the China - US trade war may lead to a rush of shipments within 90 days, which is beneficial for the digestion of US - bound shipping capacity, price wars among shipping alliances cannot be avoided. - On May 14, China and the US reached multiple positive consensuses in their Geneva economic and trade talks, agreeing to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels. The US promised to cancel 91% of tariffs and suspend 24% of reciprocal tariffs, and China also cancelled 91% of counter - tariffs and suspended 24% of counter - tariffs, with both sides retaining 10% of tariffs. - Starting from June 1, 2025, multiple liner companies announced a new round of freight rate increases for major routes from the Far East to Europe [4]. d. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: Due to the volatile external policies in the short term, it is recommended to focus on medium - and long - term contracts. - Arbitrage strategy: Given the impact of tariffs, attention can be paid to the reverse - spread structure, but the window period is short and the fluctuations are large. - Long - term strategy: Risk - preferring investors can try to go long with a light position when the 2508 contract falls below 1600 points (it has already achieved a profit margin of over 400 points) and the 2510 contract falls below 1200 points (it has already achieved a profit margin of over 300 points), and it is recommended to take profits when the price reaches a high point [4]. e. Contract Information - On May 15, the closing price of the main contract 2506 was 1787.3, with a gain of 8.72%, a trading volume of 108,800 lots, and an open interest of 38,600 lots, an increase of 61 lots from the previous day. - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is 16%, and for the 2508 contract, it is 19%. - The company's margin requirements are 26% for contracts 2506 - 2604 and 29% for the 2508 contract. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [4].

2.市场具有不确定性、过往策略观点的吻合并不保证当前策略观点的正确。公司及其他研究员可能发表与本策略观点不同甚至相反的意见。报告所载资料、意见及推测仪 映研究人员于发出本报告当日的判断,可随时更改目无需另行通告。 3.在法律范围内，公司或关联机构可能会就涉及的品种进行交易，或可能为其他公司交易提供服务。 4.本报告版权仅为浙江新世纪期货有限公司所有。未经事先书面许可，任何财的和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制、刊登、转载和月用，否则由此造成的一切不良后果及法 律责任由私自翻版、复制、刊登、转载和引用者承担。 圳 | | 2025年5月15日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 船司发布涨价函，美线出现抢运潮，部分合约再次涨停，符合日报预期，建议冲高止盈 | | | | | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | 5月12日 | | 5月9日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1302.62点，较上期下跌5.5% | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）952.32点，较上期上涨2.37% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美 ...