Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market is mainly in a state of shock, with different trends for each variety. The demand side is generally weak, but there are certain differences in supply and inventory for each product, which affects their price trends. The market is also affected by factors such as policies, cost, and international trade [2][3][4] Summary by Variety Steel - The steel market is mainly in a state of shock. The demand for rebar remains stable, production increases, and inventory removal slows down. The demand for hot - rolled coils declines, production remains high, and inventory accumulates slightly. The overall domestic demand is weak, but the lower support of the disk is strengthened, and the upside space is restricted [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore market is expected to be in a state of shock. The global supply is at a high level, and domestic port inventory begins to rise. The terminal demand in the off - season has toughness, and steel mills have no strong willingness to cut production. The market sentiment has improved, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is limited [3] Coke - The coke price has rebounded significantly, but it is likely to be a short - term market. The coking industry has a price increase expectation, production profit is meager, and production has declined. The overall inventory has decreased, and the purchasing willingness of traders is low [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price has also rebounded significantly, probably a short - term market. Policy may strengthen the control of over - production, and the production of coking coal mines has declined. The spot auction market has improved slightly, and the terminal inventory continues to decline [6] Silicomanganese - The price of silicomanganese follows the steel trend. The inventory has decreased due to previous production cuts, but the weekly production has begun to increase. The manganese ore inventory is expected to increase in the medium - long term, and the short - term inventory is low, with an upward price trend [7] Ferrosilicon - The price of ferrosilicon follows the steel trend. The iron water production remains high, the export demand has little marginal impact, and the overall demand is acceptable. The supply has decreased, and the inventory has decreased. The short - term trend is bullish [8]

Report Information - Report Title: "Steel and Ore Weekly Report 2025 - 06 - 23: Off - season Market Continues, Black Narrow - range Fluctuation" [1] - Research Team: Zhengxin Futures Industrial Research Center, Black Industry Group [2] - Researchers: Xie Chen, Yang Hui [3] Core Views Steel - Price: Spot prices rose slightly, while the futures market fluctuated at a low level [7] - Supply: Blast furnace production stopped falling and rebounded, while electric furnace production continued to decline [7] - Inventory: The de - stocking speed of building materials slowed down, while that of plates accelerated [7] - Demand: Building materials demand declined month - on - month, and there was great downward pressure on the domestic demand for plates [7] - Profit: Blast furnace profits remained high, while electric furnace profits continued to narrow [7] - Basis: The basis narrowed slightly, and all reverse arbitrage positions were closed at a profit [7] - Summary: In May, the macro data was weak, and the market was worried about the drag on consumption data after the slowdown of national subsidies. The overall supply increased month - on - month. The market still showed off - season characteristics. It is expected that the price will return to the off - season fluctuating and falling trend. Maintain the mid - term short - selling idea [7] Iron Ore - Price: Ore prices fluctuated, and the futures market rebounded at a low level [7] - Supply: Shipments from Australia and Brazil declined, and arrivals also weakened [7] - Demand: Blast furnace production increased, and demand improved month - on - month [7] - Inventory: Port inventories decreased slightly, while downstream inventories increased slightly [7] - Shipping: Shipping costs both declined [7] - Spread: The futures spread narrowed, and the spread declined slightly [7] - Summary: Last week, the supply - demand situation improved slightly month - on - month. Considering the drag of off - season finished products, the probability of further iron ore price increases is low. Maintain the long - term bearish view [7] Summary by Directory Steel Weekly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - Shanghai rebar spot prices and hot - rolled coil spot prices showed certain trends. Last week, rebar futures fluctuated sideways, with the main contract rising 0.77% to close at 2992. Spot prices rose slightly, with rebar in East China reported at 3090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan week - on - week [10][13] 1.2 Supply - Blast furnace production: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.82%, an increase of 0.41 percentage points week - on - week. The blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.79%, an increase of 0.21 percentage points week - on - week. The daily average hot metal output was 242.18 tons, an increase of 0.57 tons week - on - week [16] - Electric furnace production: The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 54.54%, a decrease of 2.19 percentage points week - on - week. The average operating rate was 70.93%, a decrease of 3.08 percentage points week - on - week [24] - Product output: Rebar production increased by 4.6 tons to 212.2 tons week - on - week, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.8 tons to 325.5 tons week - on - week [27] 1.3 Demand - Building materials: According to the survey data of Centennial Building, as of June 17, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.05%, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 percentage points. The overall terminal demand was gradually declining [30] - Plates: From June 1 - 15, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 706,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 20% and a month - on - month decrease of 9%. The manufacturing demand was expected to weaken [33] 1.4 Profit - Long - process: The profitability rate of steel mills was 59.31%, an increase of 0.87 percentage points week - on - week. Long - process steel mills benefited from the four - round coke price cut and still had high profits [38] - Electric furnace: As of the 20th, the average profit of sample electric arc furnace steel mills was - 132 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was - 29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton day - on - day [38] 1.5 Inventory - Building materials: The total inventory of five major steel products was 1,338.89 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15.67 tons. Rebar inventory was still being de - stocked, but the speed slowed down [41] - Plates: The hot - rolled coil inventory - to - sales ratio decreased by 0.4 days to 7.2 days. Both factory and social inventories changed from previous accumulation to de - stocking [44] 1.6 Basis - The basis of rebar 01 contract narrowed significantly. It was recommended to close reverse arbitrage positions at around 80 last week, and all positions have been closed at a profit [47] 1.7 Inter - delivery - The 10 - 1 spread was 7, an increase of 6 week - on - week. The contango situation was completely reversed. The near - term contract faces off - season pressure, and the far - term contract also faces risks [50] 1.8 Inter - product - The current futures spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 124, an increase of 11 week - on - week. The spot spread was 140, an increase of 50 week - on - week. There is no obvious driving force for the spread to continue narrowing [53] Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - Last week, iron ore prices fluctuated, with the main contract closing flat at 703. Spot prices rose synchronously, with PB fines at Qingdao Port rising 1 yuan to 710 yuan/ton [58] 2.2 Supply - Shipments: Global iron ore shipments decreased month - on - month. The weekly average shipments from Australia were 2043.6 tons, and those from Brazil were 759.2 tons [61][64] - Arrivals: The arrivals at 47 ports decreased month - on - month. The current value was 2517.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 156 tons [67] 2.3 Demand - Rigid demand: The daily average hot metal output of 247 sample steel mills increased. The current output was 242.18 tons/day, an increase of 0.57 tons/day week - on - week [70] - Speculative demand: The average daily port trading volume last week was 95.9 tons, an increase of 5.9 tons week - on - week. Downstream steel mills resumed production, and there was still overall restocking demand [73] 2.4 Inventory - Port inventory: The iron ore inventory at 47 ports decreased month - on - month. The current total inventory was 14433.56 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 70 tons [76] - Downstream inventory: On June 19, the total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills was 2719.47 tons, an increase of 56.73 tons from the previous period [79] 2.5 Shipping - The freight from Western Australia to China was 9.1 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.77 US dollars week - on - week. The freight from Brazil to China was 22.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.08 US dollars/ton week - on - week [82] 2.6 Spread - The 9 - 1 spread was 29, a narrowing of 1.5 week - on - week. The 09 contract was at a discount of 28, a narrowing of 6 last week [85] - The coke - to - ore ratio was 1.99, and the rebar - to - ore ratio was 4.26. The two ratios changed little, and the spread trading fluidity was not high [88]