5月13日盘后，京东集团-SW(09618)发布2025年第一季度业绩，期内收入人民币3011亿元，同比增长 15.8%;归属于本公司普通股股东的净利润为108.9亿元，同比增长52.73%;基本每股收益3.76元。表现略 超高盛预期。高盛预计京东零售第一季度收入增长势头将延续上一季度，集团净利润为 105 亿元人民币 （利润率 3.6%）。 鉴于本周中国互联网巨头集中发布财报，高盛于5月12日发布业绩前瞻报告，来看看详细内容： 高盛预计腾讯第一季度广告收入(即营销服务收入，高盛预计增长 18%)有望超预期;京东零售第一季度 利润可能超预期(高盛预计同比增长 28%);阿里巴巴 3 月季度财报表现稳健，淘宝 - 天猫客户管理收入 (CMR)持续增长，云业务加速发展，符合市场预期(与市场普遍预期一致)。 受季度内商品 / 服务消费趋势延续(今年至今商品服务消费表现良好)、AI 云业务加速发展以及腾讯游戏 业务稳健增长的推动，高盛预计大型股整体财报结果健康，第二季度展望积极(高盛预计 3 月季度：腾 讯集团同比增长 10%/ 阿里巴巴 CMR 收入同比增长 9%，调整后集团息税前利润(EBIT)分别同比增长 16 ...

8 May 2025 | 7:03AM HKT China Musings Self-help is underway, but tariff drags are likely on the way 1. China equity (MSCI China) has almost fully recovered its post-Liberation Day drawdown of 13% in the past 1 month, and has returned 12% ytd. Despite the unprecedented trade frictions with the US, China financial assets have been resilient so far, with the Rmb appreciating against the USD by 1.7% in the past month, and Chinese government bonds re-testing all-time highs in recent days. Commonly cited reasons ...

Core Viewpoint - Viking Therapeutics has experienced a significant decline in stock price in 2025, down 35% year to date, despite a strong performance in 2024 due to promising clinical progress [1][2][3] Group 1: Company Performance - The company's leading candidate, VK2735, an investigational GLP-1 weight loss therapy, showed excellent phase 2 results and is expected to advance to phase 3 studies soon [5] - Viking's market cap is approximately $3 billion, and it is considered one of the more promising bets in the weight loss therapy sector, despite competition from larger companies like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk [8][6] - The company is also developing VK2809 for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), which has also passed phase 2 studies, and VK0214 for X-linked adrenoleukodystrophy, which has completed phase 1 studies [9][10] Group 2: Financial Position - Viking Therapeutics ended the first quarter with $852 million in cash and equivalents, down from $903 million at the end of 2024, indicating a solid financial position to support ongoing studies [11] - The company is expected to access additional funding easily due to its clinical progress, which should mitigate any immediate funding concerns [11] Group 3: Market Context - The weight loss market is experiencing rapid growth, with sales of existing therapies increasing significantly, and analysts predict continued growth in this sector at least until the early 2030s [7] - Despite the influx of investigational weight loss therapies, most have shown modest results, making Viking's promising data stand out in the competitive landscape [8]

Investment Rating - The report raises the 2025 Southbound flow forecast from US$75 billion to US$110 billion, indicating a positive investment outlook for Southbound flows [4][39][41]. Core Insights - Southbound investors have shown strong net buying activity, with US$78 billion in net purchases year-to-date, representing 75% of the expected full-year inflows for 2024 [1][9]. - The performance of the Hong Kong market is increasingly correlated with Southbound flows, suggesting that these investors are gaining pricing power [2][11]. - The report identifies key drivers for Southbound inflows, including attractive H-share profiles, increased domestic institutional investment, and hedging demand against potential RMB depreciation [10][41]. Summary by Sections Southbound Flows and Market Impact - Southbound investors currently hold US$577 billion of HK-listed stocks, accounting for 13% of the market cap of eligible stocks, up from 10% a year ago [2][11]. - The turnover contribution from Southbound investors has increased from 17% in 2024 to 21% year-to-date [2][11]. - The report notes that the Southbound flows have become a significant influence on the Hong Kong market, with a notable increase in ownership and turnover [11][12]. Investor Composition - Both onshore retail and institutional investors are participating in Southbound trading, with institutional investors estimated to account for at least half of the Southbound ownership [3][25]. - Domestic mutual funds have raised their equity allocation to historical highs, contributing to the Southbound inflows [28][39]. Forecast and Drivers - The report forecasts that Southbound flows could reach US$110 billion in 2025, driven by factors such as the attractiveness of H-shares, increased dual-primary listings, and potential dividend tax exemptions for Southbound investors [4][39][43]. - The report highlights that the home-coming of US-listed Chinese companies could further boost Southbound buying, with Alibaba's dual-primary listing serving as a precedent [41][50]. Investment Opportunities - A refreshed Southbound Favorite Portfolio includes 50 companies identified for their scarcity value, valuation discounts, and high sensitivity to Southbound flows, expected to outperform if inflows remain strong [5][49]. - The report also screens for 33 ADRs eligible for HK dual-primary listing, which may benefit from Southbound buying post-inclusion [5][50].

智通财经APP获悉，在美国和中国关税谈判之际，ADR退市风险再度浮现。4月13日，摩根士丹利分析 师Laura Wang称，摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)中国ADR成分股中，超80%的公司在香港双重上市，这确 保了即使在退市情况下也能顺利交易。从 6 -12 个月的时间跨度来看，估值和流动性方面的下行风险更 易控制，对于符合南下资金投资条件的股票来说尤其如此。 大摩想要确切了解强制 ADR 退市情景对中国股市的影响程度。目前，约有 120 家中国 ADR 公司在美 国市场交易。其中只有 23 家公司规模和活跃度足以被纳入整个 MSCI 中国指数，按公司数量计算占指 数成分股的 4%(图表 1)，按总指数权重计算则占 25%(图表 2)。可选消费 / 电子商务是占比最高的行业 (图表 5)。 MSCI 中国指数的 ADR 成分股中，大多数(按市值计算为 80%，按公司数量计算为 83%)已在香港双重 上市，并且在香港市场和美国市场每日都有活跃交易(图表 3、图表 4)。 双重上市确保 ADR 退市时仍可继续交易 大摩认为，双重上市通常可确保 ADR 公司即使从美国市场退市，仍能在香港进行交易。ADR 股东可以 ...

BofA Securities analyst Sara Senatore initiated coverage on the shares of CAVA Group Inc CAVA with a Buy rating and announced a price forecast of $112.00. Restaurants that maintain strong returns on investment over time can sustain high valuations and benefit investors, said the analyst. Similar to top-performing peers Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc and Texas Roadhouse Inc, CAVA has built a successful model that balances customer value with strong financial growth. Amid concerns over consumer spending, CAVA's s ...