The Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. ( AMD ) CEO doubled down on the idea that we are not in an AI bubble, butJames Foord is an economist by trade and has been analyzing global markets for the past decade. He leads the investing group The Pragmatic Investor where the focus is on building robust and truly diversified portfolios that will continually preserve and increase wealth. The Pragmatic Investor covers global macro, international equities, commodities, tech and cryptocurrencies and is designed to guide inv ...

The Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. ( AMD ) CEO doubled down on the idea that we are not in an AI bubble, butJames Foord is an economist by trade and has been analyzing global markets for the past decade. He leads the investing group The Pragmatic Investor where the focus is on building robust and truly diversified portfolios that will continually preserve and increase wealth. The Pragmatic Investor covers global macro, international equities, commodities, tech and cryptocurrencies and is designed to guide inv ...

Core Insights - The industry is in the early stages of an unprecedented AI Supercycle, contrary to speculation about an AI bubble [2][7][18] - There is a significant supply constraint across the AI supply chain, with demand for chips, memory, and datacenter construction outpacing available resources [3][8][14] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand for AI-related components is insatiable, leading companies like Micron Technology to pivot entirely to AI chips [4][9] - Major players like Intel and AWS are experiencing surges in demand, with AWS's Trainium chips sold out [4][7] - The manufacturing capacity is severely constrained, with TSMC ramping up production but still unable to meet the overwhelming demand from companies like NVIDIA and Apple [8][9] Market Trends - Custom chips are expected to capture 25% to 30% of the AI accelerator market over the next five years, which is projected to exceed $1 trillion annually [16] - NVIDIA has reported $500 billion in order visibility, indicating strong demand that is not solely reliant on OpenAI [18] Energy Constraints - Energy supply is a critical constraint for AI development, necessitating advancements in nuclear and modular reactor technologies to meet future demands [14][15] Competitive Landscape - The competition between GPUs and custom chips (XPUs) is not a zero-sum game; both can coexist and thrive due to the vast demand [6][10][12] - Companies like Broadcom and Marvell are positioned to benefit from the custom chip movement, alongside the growing need for networking infrastructure [16]

Market Valuation & Sentiment - Relief rallies are possible, but current valuations are not particularly attractive after some froth has been taken off [1] - Doubts about AI's impact on the broader economy and questions about depreciation may lead to continued market volatility [2] - NVIDIA's report is a capstone event and a macro indicator, potentially causing market swings of up to 7% [6] NVIDIA's Performance & AI Supercycle - NVIDIA is trading at approximately 30 times future earnings, which is not considered highly elevated by some [3] - The AI supercycle is believed to be real and will profoundly impact the economy, but a full range of outcomes must be considered when pricing AI stocks [4][5][10] - The key question for 2026 and 2027 is whether the conviction remains to build out the massive infrastructure needed for AI [9][10] AI Adoption & Impact - Only 10% of surveyed companies are currently using generative AI for revenue or new product generation [11] - AI adoption is accelerating faster than previous technology cycles like the internet [12] - Commentary around AI is still generic, lacking specifics on how it's transforming businesses [12] - Real-world AI applications and their impact on earnings, beyond hyperscalers, are key indicators to watch [13]

Group 1: Magnum Ice Cream Co (MICC) Demerger and Listing - Magnum Ice Cream Co (MICC) is preparing for a triple listing on the London Stock Exchange, New York Stock Exchange, and Euronext Amsterdam, following its demerger from Unilever, expected in mid-November 2025 [1][2] - The demerger process is projected to incur costs of €800 million, with approximately 55% of these costs already incurred [1] - Unilever will retain a minority stake of less than 20% in Magnum for up to five years, which will be sold to cover separation costs and maintain capital flexibility [2] - Magnum reported €7.9 billion in revenue and €1.3 billion in adjusted EBITDA for 2024, holding an approximate 21% global retail market share [2] - The company has established a stable dividend policy, targeting a payout ratio of 40-60% of adjusted net income, with the first dividend expected in the first half of 2027 [2] Group 2: Corporate Earnings - Amgen (AMGN) reported a 12.4% year-on-year increase in sales to $9.56 billion, driven by strong performance from new inflammation drugs and cholesterol therapy Repatha [7] - Following its strong performance, Amgen raised its full-year profit and revenue guidance, with adjusted EPS now expected between $20.60 and $21.40 and revenue between $35.8 billion and $36.6 billion [7] - Super Micro Computer (SMCI) issued a weak profit forecast for the current quarter, adjusting its first-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue estimate to approximately $5 billion, down from $6-$7 billion [8] - Despite the short-term setback, Super Micro maintained its full-year revenue forecast of at least $33 billion, citing strong AI demand and a $12 billion backlog of new orders [8] - AMD (AMD) beat its Q3 expectations with revenues of $9.25 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.20, but its Q4 outlook did not meet investor expectations [8] Group 3: Canada's Financial Sector Reforms - Canada's government is targeting competition within its financial sector by tackling fees, simplifying the process for consumers to switch banks, and reducing regulatory burdens for smaller lenders [9] - The initiative includes prohibiting investment and registered account transfer fees, which currently cost Canadians an average of $150 per account [9] - The government plans to increase the amount of immediately available deposited cheque funds to $150 from $100 [9] Group 4: Economic Indicators - New Zealand's unemployment rate for Q3 rose to 5.3%, with no employment growth quarter-over-quarter and a year-over-year decline of -0.6% [11] - In the United States, API crude oil inventories surged by 6.5 million barrels, significantly exceeding forecasts that anticipated a draw of 2.4 million barrels [12]

Events & Media - The Rollup 与 Bloomberg 合作推出节目 [1] - The Rollup TV 发布 AI Supercycle EP 5，内容涉及 Kalshi & Talus, Aori, Ostium, Bloomberg 等公司 [1] People - Robbie Rollup 和 JSeyff 参与节目 [1]

RT The Rollup (@therollupco)Gm. Today's Rollup TV line-up is in:11:30p ET AI Supercycle EP 5 @starpause - @PublicAIData12:15p ET @0x_ultra - @Kalshi & @ben_frigon - @Talus_Labs12:45p ET @joshuagunnn - @aori_io1:30p ET @kaledora - @ostiumlabs2:00p ET @JSeyff - @BloombergTune in below. ...

Core Insights - Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (CDNS) is valued at $96.3 billion and is a global provider of software services, offering various platforms for functional verification and chip verification [1] Financial Performance - Analysts expect CDNS to report a profit of $1.42 per share for Q3, reflecting a 13.6% increase from $1.25 per share in the same quarter last year [2] - For the full fiscal year 2025, CDNS is projected to report an EPS of $5.47, a 21.6% increase from $4.50 in 2024, with further growth expected in fiscal 2026 to $6.39 per share, a 16.8% year-over-year increase [3] Stock Performance - CDNS stock has increased by 31.4% over the past 52 weeks, outperforming the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund's 27.7% gains and the S&P 500 Index's 17.9% returns during the same period [4] - Following the release of strong Q2 results, CDNS stock surged 9.7% in a single trading session [5] Revenue and Profitability - In the last quarter, Cadence's revenue grew by 20.2% year-over-year to $1.3 billion, exceeding expectations by 1.3% [6] - Non-GAAP net income rose by 28.3% year-over-year to $449.9 million, while operating cash flows increased significantly by 111.3% year-over-year to $864.6 million [6] Analyst Ratings - The consensus opinion on CDNS stock is optimistic, with a "Strong Buy" rating from 16 out of 22 analysts, and a mean price target of $375.75 indicating an 8.8% upside potential from current levels [7]

AI Vision & Strategy - NEAR CEO discussed their vision for AI and why it's still early in one of the biggest market opportunities [1] - NEAR is collaborating with major Web2 players in the AI space [1] Industry Focus - The discussion highlights the AI Supercycle and its potential impact [1] - The content is relevant for individuals interested in the AI field [1]

AI & Blockchain Convergence - The episode "AI Supercycle EP 1" features @ilblackdragon of @NEARProtocol, focusing on bringing decentralization, privacy, and user-ownership to the AI market [1] - The Rollup TV presents the episode, indicating a focus on the intersection of AI and blockchain technologies [1] Key Themes - The episode emphasizes a "new day one," suggesting a fresh perspective on the AI market with a focus on decentralization [1]