Core Insights - Global crude oil markets are experiencing an oversupply, particularly evident in the Americas, especially the US [1] - The futures curve for US benchmark West Texas Intermediate indicates weaker demand for immediate barrels, with a contango structure expected for most of 2026 [1] - High export volumes in the US, with October crude exports reaching the highest level since July 2024, further indicate healthy supply [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global marker Brent's futures curve is largely flat post-March, reflecting a lackluster demand for prompt barrels [2] - The Brent-Dubai EFS has turned negative, suggesting Brent is trading at a discount against the Middle Eastern benchmark, indicating weakness in North Sea markets [3] Future Market Expectations - Market analysts anticipate a global oil glut in the coming year, with OPEC revising its outlook from a deficit to a surplus due to increased US production [4] - The International Energy Agency forecasts a record surplus in 2026, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [4] - Analysts predict a slight surplus in the current quarter and into the next, with expectations of continued contango in the forward curve, though not a deep contango [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate within a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] 2. Core View - Since September, global crude oil shipments have increased significantly, leading to a substantial rise in global in - transit crude oil inventory at sea. If a large amount of compliant oil in floating storage cannot be digested, the near - term forward curve of crude oil needs to weaken and turn into a contango structure [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 49 cents to $60.56 per barrel, a decline of 0.8%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for January delivery fell 45 cents to $64.44 per barrel, a decline of 0.69%. The main contract of SC crude oil closed down 0.19% at 464 yuan per barrel [1] - Saudi Aramco's quarterly profit exceeded analysts' expectations. Its Q3 net profit adjusted for one - off items rose 0.8% year - on - year to 104.9 billion riyals (about $28 billion). The company increased production according to OPEC+ policy, stabilizing performance in a low - oil - price environment [1] - BP CEO said that oil demand remains strong, with aviation and petrochemical products driving a 1% increase in oil demand [1] - The US Deputy Energy Secretary said that energy demand is rising rapidly, and the US strategic petroleum reserve is depleted, so the current priority is to replenish the reserve as soon as possible [1] Investment Logic - Since September, global crude oil shipments have increased significantly. Recent Saudi crude oil shipments are close to 7 million barrels per day, Latin American shipments exceed 6 million barrels per day, Russian shipments are close to 4 million barrels per day, and US shipments exceed 4 million barrels per day. In addition, the export of northern Iraqi crude oil through Ceyhan has recovered, and Kuwait's crude oil exports have also increased significantly due to a refinery device failure [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate within a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Russian oil, and macro black - swan events occur [3] - Upside risks: Supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) tightens, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to Middle - East conflicts [3]

Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered has shifted from a bullish to a bearish outlook on oil prices, cutting its 2026 and 2027 price forecasts by $15 per barrel due to significant changes in the forward curve [2] Group 1: Oil Price Outlook - The average price of Brent crude for 2025 has been raised to $68.50 per barrel from $61 per barrel, while the 2026 target has been reduced to $63.50 per barrel from $78 per barrel, and the 2027 price has been cut to $67 per barrel from $83 per barrel [2] - The futures curve is now in contango from early 2026 onwards, indicating expectations of rising prices or high storage costs [2] - Near-term weakness is anticipated due to negative sentiment driven by trade war uncertainties and oversupply fears, but a gradual increase in prices is expected in the long term [2] Group 2: U.S. Oil Production Dynamics - U.S. oil output has reached an all-time high of 13.58 million barrels per day in June, with production increasing by 133,000 barrels per day [1] - Analysts predict that U.S. shale output growth will be depressed by low prices, and if OPEC+ maintains its production levels, this could highlight tightness in the market [2] - Rising production costs in the U.S. shale sector are driven by resource depletion and the need to drill in more complex areas, with marginal costs expected to rise from approximately $70 per barrel to $95 per barrel by the mid-2030s [3] Group 3: Economic Influences - The weakening global economic outlook is likely to lead to economic stimulus measures, including potential rate cuts in the U.S. and a response package from China [1] - Many U.S. oil producers require prices above $65 per barrel to profit from new drilling, a threshold that is increasing due to inflation [3]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of conducting thorough due diligence before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading activities [1] Group 1 - The content includes general news and personal analysis intended for educational and research purposes [1] - It highlights that the information provided does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1] - The article warns that the information may not be accurate or provided in real-time, and prices may be sourced from market makers rather than exchanges [1] Group 2 - The website discusses complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1] - It encourages users to perform their own research and understand the risks involved before investing in any financial instruments [1] - The article mentions that FX Empire does not endorse any third-party services and is not liable for any losses incurred from using the information provided [1]

Group 1: Oil Market Outlook - The entire 2026 WTI futures curve is trading below $60 per barrel, which is below breakeven levels for most new shale wells, raising concerns about a potential contango situation [1][5] - TotalEnergies CEO and Vitol's CEO warn that such low prices could lead to a reduction in U.S. shale output by 200,000 to 300,000 barrels per day next year, tightening supply as demand stabilizes [1] - Backwardation, previously a feature of the market, is now only extending until February 2026, indicating a shift in market dynamics [5] Group 2: Market Movements - US LNG developer Venture Global reached an arbitration settlement with China's Unipec, avoiding litigation over cargo delivery failures [3] - Strathcona Resources has abandoned its hostile takeover bid for MEG Energy, potentially facilitating a merger between MEG and Cenovus [3] - Chevron is nearing an exploration deal with the Greek government for deepwater blocks south of Crete, with surveying set to begin in 2026 [4] Group 3: Price Trends and Sentiment - The current market sentiment is negative, with hedge fund net length in WTI futures and options at 29,410 contracts, which is 15% of the level at the beginning of the year [5] - Resurgent US-China trade tensions and the reimposition of tariffs are negatively impacting oil sentiment, with ICE Brent prices at $62 per barrel seen as temporary before a potential decline [6]

Core Insights - Silver's futures curve has entered deep backwardation, with the front-month contract trading $2.88 higher than later contracts, marking the steepest inversion since 1980 [1][15][24] - This backwardation signals significant changes in the market, indicating potential supply stress, surging demand for physical metal, or a breakdown in the usual price discovery process [2][19][20] Market Dynamics - The current backwardation is driven by strong industrial demand for silver in sectors like solar panels and electric vehicles, coupled with increased investment demand, leading to a double-sided squeeze on supply [9][10][11] - Lease rates for borrowing physical silver have surged dramatically, indicating growing stress in the market, with one-month lease rates spiking to 39% from below 1% earlier in the year [13][14] Implications of Backwardation - Persistent backwardation suggests that the physical market is now leading price discovery, shifting power away from paper markets dominated by speculative trading [26][27] - The current market conditions could lead to a significant revaluation of silver, with potential price targets between $100 and $400 per ounce based on historical patterns and technical analysis [40][42][47] Historical Context - Historical instances of silver entering backwardation have often preceded major price rallies, as seen in January 1980 and early 2011, where physical scarcity led to rapid price increases [32][35][39] - The current situation mirrors past events but is driven by more sustainable factors, including steady industrial demand and tightening mine supply [38][40] Future Outlook - If the backwardation persists, it could lead to a self-reinforcing cycle where rising spot prices and high lease rates force short sellers to cover their positions, further driving prices up [28][29] - The market is likely to seek a new equilibrium that reflects silver's true monetary value, potentially leading to a significant upward price adjustment [47][49]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic oilseed market experienced a mixed performance on August 26, with palm oil futures declining over 1% while peanut futures saw a slight increase of 0.31% [1] Price Movements - As of August 26, the main futures prices are as follows: - Palm oil down 1.14% at 9504.00 CNY/ton - Soybean meal down 0.64% at 3090.00 CNY/ton - Rapeseed meal down 0.39% at 2549.00 CNY/ton - Peanut up 0.31% at 7802.00 CNY/ton [1][2] Warehouse Receipt Data - As of August 25, warehouse receipt data indicates: - Soybean oil futures unchanged at 15760 contracts - Palm oil futures unchanged at 0 contracts - Rapeseed oil futures unchanged at 3987 contracts - Soybean meal futures unchanged at 10925 contracts - Rapeseed meal futures decreased by 187 contracts to 8101 contracts - Soybean futures decreased by 115 contracts to 12082 contracts [3] Basis and Basis Rate - The basis and basis rates for various commodities are as follows: - Rapeseed oil: Basis 116, Basis Rate 1.16% - Rapeseed meal: Basis 61, Basis Rate 2.33% - Palm oil: Basis 24, Basis Rate 0.25% - Soybean: Basis 302, Basis Rate 7.02% - Soybean meal: Basis 10, Basis Rate 0.32% - Soybean oil: Basis 96, Basis Rate 1.12% [4]

Core Insights - The domestic futures market for crude oil saw a significant increase, with the main crude oil futures rising nearly 9% [1] - The main crude oil futures closed at 535.20 yuan per barrel, while fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil also experienced substantial gains [1] Price Movements - As of June 13, the main crude oil futures opened at 492.90 yuan, with a previous close of 495.70 yuan and a last settlement price of 491.10 yuan [2] - Fuel oil opened at 2979.00 yuan, with a previous close of 2997.00 yuan and a last settlement price of 2982.00 yuan [2] - Liquid petroleum gas opened at 4137.00 yuan, with a previous close of 4141.00 yuan and a last settlement price of 4148.00 yuan [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil opened at 3629.00 yuan, with a previous close of 3645.00 yuan and a last settlement price of 3640.00 yuan [2] Inventory Data - As of June 12, the inventory data showed that the medium-sulfur crude oil futures warehouse held 4,029,000 barrels, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [3] - Fuel oil futures warehouse held 24,750 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3] - Liquid petroleum gas futures warehouse saw a decrease of 125 contracts, totaling 9,010 contracts [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil warehouse futures held 0 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Basis Data - The basis data indicated that fuel oil, asphalt, liquid petroleum gas, and low-sulfur fuel oil contracts experienced a 'backwardation' phenomenon, where spot prices exceeded futures prices [3] - For fuel oil, the spot price was 5,287.5 yuan, while the contract price was 2,509 yuan, resulting in a basis of 2,305 yuan and a basis rate of 43.59% [3] - The basis for liquid petroleum gas was 764 yuan, with a basis rate of 15.92% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for crude oil and related products experienced a significant increase on June 12, with crude oil and fuel oil prices rising nearly 3% [1] Group 1: Price Movements - As of June 12, the main crude oil futures rose by 2.99% to 495.60 CNY per barrel [1] - Fuel oil futures increased by 2.85% to 3000.00 CNY per ton [1] - Low sulfur fuel oil futures rose by 2.27% to 3647.00 CNY per ton [1] - Asphalt futures saw a rise of 1.35% to 3523.00 CNY per ton [1] Group 2: Futures Price Data - The opening price for SC crude oil was 486.60 CNY, with a previous close of 478.10 CNY and a last settlement price of 481.20 CNY [2] - Fuel oil opened at 2952.00 CNY, with a previous close of 2912.00 CNY and a last settlement price of 2917.00 CNY [2] - Asphalt opened at 3493.00 CNY, with a previous close of 3461.00 CNY and a last settlement price of 3476.00 CNY [2] - Liquefied petroleum gas opened at 4154.00 CNY, with a previous close of 4130.00 CNY and a last settlement price of 4119.00 CNY [2] - Low sulfur fuel oil opened at 3617.00 CNY, with a previous close of 3563.00 CNY and a last settlement price of 3566.00 CNY [2] Group 3: Warehouse Data - As of June 11, the warehouse data showed that the medium-sulfur crude oil futures warehouse stood at 4,029,000 barrels, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] - Fuel oil futures warehouse was at 24,750 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3] - Asphalt futures warehouse was at 36,350 tons, remaining stable from the previous trading day [3] - Liquefied petroleum gas futures warehouse decreased by 205 contracts to 9,135 contracts [3] - Low sulfur fuel oil warehouse reported 0 tons, down by 1,000 tons from the previous trading day [3] Group 4: Basis Data - The basis data indicated a phenomenon of 'backwardation' for fuel oil, asphalt, liquefied petroleum gas, and low sulfur fuel oil, where spot prices exceeded futures prices [3] - For fuel oil, the spot price was 5275 CNY, with a futures price of 2917 CNY, resulting in a basis of 2358 CNY and a basis rate of 44.70% [3] - For asphalt, the spot price was 3630 CNY, with a futures price of 3476 CNY, leading to a basis of 154 CNY and a basis rate of 4.24% [3] - For liquefied petroleum gas, the spot price was 4797.5 CNY, with a futures price of 4119 CNY, resulting in a basis of 678 CNY and a basis rate of 14.13% [3] - For low sulfur fuel oil, the spot price was 3648 CNY, with a futures price of 3563 CNY, leading to a basis of 85 CNY and a basis rate of 2.32% [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues for fiscal Q3 2025 increased 15% to $3,000,000,000 from $2,600,000,000 in the same year-ago quarter, with an 18% increase when excluding forward sales [7][8] - Gross profit for fiscal Q3 2025 increased 18% to $41,000,000, representing 1.36% of revenue, compared to $34,800,000 or 1.33% of revenue in Q3 of last year [8][9] - Net loss attributable to the company for Q3 2025 totaled $8,500,000 or $0.36 loss per diluted share, compared to net income of $5,000,000 or $0.21 per diluted share in Q3 of last year [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The DTC segment contributed 19% of consolidated revenue in Q3 2025, while JMB's revenue represented 10% compared to 12% in the prior year [7][8] - Gross profit from the DTC segment represented 61% of consolidated gross profit in Q3 2025, up from 52% in Q3 2024 [9][10] - SG&A expenses for fiscal Q3 2025 increased 46% to $33,400,000, primarily due to increased consulting and professional fees [10][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gold sales in Q3 2025 were 432,000 ounces, down 3% from the previous year, while silver sales were 15,700,000 ounces, down 39% [17] - The number of new customers in the DTC segment increased 1489% in Q3 2025, with a total of approximately 4,100,000 customers at the end of the quarter, a 64% increase from the prior year [18][19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company executed three strategic acquisitions during the quarter, enhancing its competitive position and expanding into higher-margin luxury segments [4][5] - The company is optimistic about long-term growth opportunities in Asian markets and aims to scale the LPM brand alongside other portfolio assets [5] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that market conditions showed modest improvement, and they remain confident in the company's long-term growth trajectory [5] - The CEO highlighted that the company is focused on integrating recent acquisitions and driving efficiencies throughout the business [20] Other Important Information - The company amended its credit facility, now having a revolving commitment of $467,000,000, and maintained its regular quarterly cash dividend program [16] - The company reported a tangible net worth of $315,700,000 at the end of the quarter, up from $306,000,000 at the end of the prior fiscal year [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Market activity post-April - Management observed increased activity post-April 2, with a solid month for the company despite some recent slowdown [22][23] Question: Collectible space progress - Management reported good integration of recent acquisitions in the collectible space, with impressive auction demand noted [24][25] Question: Impact of backwardation - Management explained that backwardation negatively impacted results, similar to conditions experienced post-COVID, but noted a return to more normalized market conditions [29][30][33] Question: Earnings power in macroeconomic uncertainty - Management indicated that the company historically performs well in active silver markets and noted the current dominance of gold in precious metals [35][36] Question: Current stance on acquisitions - Management remains open to acquisitions, particularly when market conditions are slow, and sees potential for significant customer base growth through these strategies [46][47] Question: Trends post-Liberation Day - Management reported elevated interest and activity across all business segments throughout April, with a correlation to stock market performance [48][49] Question: Visibility on long-term holders selling inventory - Management discussed the supply-demand dynamics when long-term holders sell back into the market, affecting trading performance [54][55] Question: Financial impact of Las Vegas facility improvements - Management expressed confidence that automation improvements will lead to higher volumes and efficiencies without adding more employees [58][60] Question: Thoughts on stock buybacks - Management stated that stock buybacks are considered alongside other capital deployment strategies, with flexibility to adapt based on market conditions [62][65]