Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite persistent inflation, consumer demand in the U.S. remains resilient, as evidenced by a significant increase in consumer spending in July [4][6] - The PCE price index for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, aligning with expectations and previous values, while the month-on-month change remained flat at 0.2% [4] - The core PCE price index rose by 2.9% year-on-year in July, marking the highest level since February, and matched expectations [6] Group 2 - The recent performance of gold prices has been strong, with a notable increase to $3437 per ounce, prompting plans for profit-taking in the North American trading session [6] - The upcoming week is anticipated to present a volatility window, with expectations of a range-bound market, indicating potential resistance levels at $3450 and $3500 [6]

PCE in line with expectationsCoins immediately bouncezerohedge (@zerohedge):PCE 0.2% MoM, Exp. 0.2%PCE 2.6% YoY, Exp. 2.6%PCE Core 0.3% MoM, Exp. 0.3%PCE Core 2.9% YoY, Exp. 2.9% ...

I take it PCE was favorable based on the price notifications I just received ...

REMINDER:U.S. PCE & Core PCE today at 8:30 AM ET.As the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, this print will be closely watched.Consensus:- PCE: 2.6%- Core PCE: 2.9% https://t.co/qlBNxjhvJx ...

Economic Outlook & Monetary Policy - The Fed previously adopted a "wait and see" approach regarding tariffs, but now believes their impact is likely to be a one-off event [2] - The market anticipates a potential softening of the labor market, evidenced by labor market revisions [4] - The Fed's policy decisions are influenced by revisions to employment numbers and forecasts of the labor market's future trajectory [8] - The Fed is reducing its balance sheet and is closely monitoring markets for disruptions, with the pace potentially slowing if the economy weakens [12][13] Labor Market Dynamics - A significant portion, approaching half, of the unemployed have been out of work for 15 weeks or more, indicating a core group facing difficulty in finding employment [9] - There are concerns that the job market could deteriorate, particularly when considering unemployment rates for teenagers and those in their early 20s [10] - The impact of technology on the job market is still uncertain, with conflicting reports on its effects on coding and other opportunities [11] Inflation & Interest Rates - The Fed is closer to full employment than its inflation target, leading to a cautious approach of holding rates at a slightly restrictive level [6] - The market anticipates that PCE data will not show a significant flare-up in inflation [7] - The Fed is becoming more forward-leaning on interest rate cuts [9]

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party content intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are advised to perform their own research and consider their financial situation before making decisions [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - It encourages users to understand how these instruments work and the associated risks before investing [1].

Market Reaction & Rate Cut Probability - Market exuberance is noted, particularly in riskier, speculative market segments, following Powell's speech [4] - Market assigned approximately 80% probability of a rate cut in September prior to the speech, which increased to 85-86% during the conversation [4][5] - Market reactions should be considered, but the market is not always right [2][3] Inflation & Tariffs - Tariffs have begun to increase prices in some goods categories, with accumulating effects expected over the coming months [1] - Tariff inflation is likened to the "tariff Titanic" hitting the "inflation iceberg," suggesting significant impact [5] - Core inflation is projected to exceed 3% by year-end, influenced by both tariffs and service-side inflation [6] - The Federal Reserve acknowledges tariff inflation is coming through, as reflected in PPI (Producer Price Index) [11][12] Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - Powell's speech emphasized balance, assessing both upside risks for inflation and downside risks for the labor market [2] - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma balancing concerns about the labor market with rising inflation [7] - The Federal Reserve might not need to be as concerned about the labor market as expressed in the speech, given supply-side factors [7][8] - The Federal Reserve can choose to view inflation data differently and utilize various measures to justify a rate cut [12][13] Labor Market - The unemployment rate is at 42%, consistent with the rate a year prior [8]

Let's bring in SoFi's Liz Thomas and RS Asset Management's Carrie Firestone who as you see are here at Post 9 as well. Well, ladies, nice to see you. Nice to see you, too.Liz, what do you think about what you just heard. I think it sounds pretty optimistic and I got to say I too much so. No, not too much.So I I think you have to take a long-term view in order to hop on that optimistic train at this point not only in the year but at this level of valuations at this point where we're waiting for so much data ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year in June, indicating a rise in inflation [1] - The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, also rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, with the year-on-year increase remaining unchanged from May [1] - Consumer spending and personal income both grew by 0.3% month-on-month in June, while the personal savings rate stood at 4.5% [1] Group 2 - The increase in prices for various imported goods, including furniture and appliances, was noted, with furniture prices rising by 1.3% and appliances by 1.9% month-on-month [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, with Chairman Powell indicating that premature rate cuts could fail to address inflation fully [2]

Economic Indicators - Personal income rebounded, increasing by 0.3%, surpassing expectations, a notable improvement from the previous month's decline of 0.4% [1][2] - Personal spending rose by 0.3%, slightly below expectations, but reversing a previous decline [2] - Real spending, adjusted for inflation, increased by 0.1%, aligning with expectations [2] Inflation Analysis (PCE) - Month-over-month PCE increased by 0.3%, slightly warmer than previous months, but not the highest reading of the year [3] - Year-over-year PCE increased by 2.8%, the highest reading of the year, equaling March 2024 levels [4] - Core month-over-month PCE increased by 0.3%, the warmest since February [4] - Year-over-year core PCE increased by 2.8%, also warmer than expected and the warmest since February [5] Employment Data - The Employment Cost Index (ECI) for the second quarter increased by 0.9%, slightly above expectations [5] - Initial jobless claims were reported at 218,000, lower than expected [6] - Continuing claims remained above 1.9 million, specifically 1,946,000 [6] Market Reaction - Despite slightly hotter PCE numbers, the market did not climb aggressively [7] - The 10-year Treasury yield increased by approximately one basis point to 4.34%, but remained down almost three basis points for the session [7]