REMINDER:U.S. PCE & Core PCE today at 8:30 AM ET.As the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, this print will be closely watched.Consensus:- PCE: 2.6%- Core PCE: 2.9% https://t.co/qlBNxjhvJx ...

Economic Outlook & Monetary Policy - The Fed previously adopted a "wait and see" approach regarding tariffs, but now believes their impact is likely to be a one-off event [2] - The market anticipates a potential softening of the labor market, evidenced by labor market revisions [4] - The Fed's policy decisions are influenced by revisions to employment numbers and forecasts of the labor market's future trajectory [8] - The Fed is reducing its balance sheet and is closely monitoring markets for disruptions, with the pace potentially slowing if the economy weakens [12][13] Labor Market Dynamics - A significant portion, approaching half, of the unemployed have been out of work for 15 weeks or more, indicating a core group facing difficulty in finding employment [9] - There are concerns that the job market could deteriorate, particularly when considering unemployment rates for teenagers and those in their early 20s [10] - The impact of technology on the job market is still uncertain, with conflicting reports on its effects on coding and other opportunities [11] Inflation & Interest Rates - The Fed is closer to full employment than its inflation target, leading to a cautious approach of holding rates at a slightly restrictive level [6] - The market anticipates that PCE data will not show a significant flare-up in inflation [7] - The Fed is becoming more forward-leaning on interest rate cuts [9]

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on set. Two of our favorite people, Kevin Gordon of Schwab, Francis Donald with RBC Capital Markets. Thank you for joining us.It's Brian. Nice to see you. So, I'm reading Pal's speech here, Kevin.Higher tariffs have begun to push up prices in some categories of goods. We expect the effects of tariffs to accumulate over coming months with high uncertainty about timing and amounts. I I could read this and actually make the case for a rate hike.Yeah. Yeah, I mean I think he to me the speech was all about balan ...

Let's bring in SoFi's Liz Thomas and RS Asset Management's Carrie Firestone who as you see are here at Post 9 as well. Well, ladies, nice to see you. Nice to see you, too.Liz, what do you think about what you just heard. I think it sounds pretty optimistic and I got to say I too much so. No, not too much.So I I think you have to take a long-term view in order to hop on that optimistic train at this point not only in the year but at this level of valuations at this point where we're waiting for so much data ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year in June, indicating a rise in inflation [1] - The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, also rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, with the year-on-year increase remaining unchanged from May [1] - Consumer spending and personal income both grew by 0.3% month-on-month in June, while the personal savings rate stood at 4.5% [1] Group 2 - The increase in prices for various imported goods, including furniture and appliances, was noted, with furniture prices rising by 1.3% and appliances by 1.9% month-on-month [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, with Chairman Powell indicating that premature rate cuts could fail to address inflation fully [2]

Economic Indicators - Personal income rebounded, increasing by 0.3%, surpassing expectations, a notable improvement from the previous month's decline of 0.4% [1][2] - Personal spending rose by 0.3%, slightly below expectations, but reversing a previous decline [2] - Real spending, adjusted for inflation, increased by 0.1%, aligning with expectations [2] Inflation Analysis (PCE) - Month-over-month PCE increased by 0.3%, slightly warmer than previous months, but not the highest reading of the year [3] - Year-over-year PCE increased by 2.8%, the highest reading of the year, equaling March 2024 levels [4] - Core month-over-month PCE increased by 0.3%, the warmest since February [4] - Year-over-year core PCE increased by 2.8%, also warmer than expected and the warmest since February [5] Employment Data - The Employment Cost Index (ECI) for the second quarter increased by 0.9%, slightly above expectations [5] - Initial jobless claims were reported at 218,000, lower than expected [6] - Continuing claims remained above 1.9 million, specifically 1,946,000 [6] Market Reaction - Despite slightly hotter PCE numbers, the market did not climb aggressively [7] - The 10-year Treasury yield increased by approximately one basis point to 4.34%, but remained down almost three basis points for the session [7]

All right. So, what is what are we seeing in the options market ahead of the August 1 deadline. Are we still start are we still seeing people trying to play it even though we've seen a number of deals get done.>> Yeah, there's definitely opportunities right now in terms of trying to pro buy some downside protection, but largely investors are not particularly bidding up puts ahead of this tariff deadline. It really reflects the fact that investors are not particularly concerned here. as you say uh there's a ...

Economic Indicators - U S Q2 核心 PCE 初值增长 25% 预期为 23% 前值为 35% [1] - 实际 GDP 增长 3% 预期为 24% 前值为 -05% [1]

Market Trends & Economic Factors - This week's events, including the Fed decision, PPE data, and jobs report, could be an inflection point for stocks trading near records [1] - Markets are pricing in potential weakness in the labor market, despite current strength [4] - Tariffs are now six times higher than when Trump took office, representing the highest levels in post-World War history, which could become an issue [3] - Confidence is returning, leading to increased spending, particularly in CapEx [15] Company Performance & Earnings - UPS stock has been a disaster for 3.5-4 years, cut in half, indicating company-specific problems [5] - Coinbase's upcoming report is crucial given its recent run; strong results are needed to justify valuation [6] - Tech earnings, particularly Google's, are in focus; while Google had a good quarter and guidance, CapEx spending is now viewed with caution [7][8] - Meta's spending on talent and CapEx, coupled with Llama 3's performance, raises concerns about profitability [9][10] - Microsoft's Azure is gaining traction in AI sales due to its OpenAI relationship [11] Bond Market & Yields - The bond market is stubborn, with yields starting to tick up, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [6] - There will be a level where the market starts to care about bond yields [7]