- The report introduces the **Cinda-VIX volatility index**, which reflects investors' expectations of future volatility in the options market. The index is structured to capture volatility across different time horizons, providing insights into market sentiment and risk expectations[62][61][64] - The methodology for constructing the Cinda-VIX index is based on overseas practices and adjusted to fit the characteristics of China's options market. The calculation is detailed in the research series "Exploring Market Sentiment Embedded in the Options Market"[62][61] - As of October 24, 2025, the 30-day Cinda-VIX values for major indices are: 19.23 for SSE 50, 19.32 for CSI 300, 27.76 for CSI 500, and 24.15 for CSI 1000[62][63][64] - The report also introduces the **Cinda-SKEW index**, which measures the skewness of implied volatility across different strike prices of options. This index helps investors understand market expectations regarding the distribution of future returns and potential tail risks[66][67][61] - The SKEW index is particularly useful for identifying market concerns about extreme negative events, often referred to as "black swan" risks. A SKEW value above 100 indicates heightened investor concern about significant downside risks[67][66] - As of October 24, 2025, the SKEW values for major indices are: 101.75 for SSE 50, 103.69 for CSI 300, 102.25 for CSI 500, and 102.63 for CSI 1000[67][68][66]

The SIBO volatility index down today, ending at its lowest in nearly two weeks, but problems may still lurk under the surface. Manny Shu is the head of derivatives market intelligence for SIBO Global Markets. Manny, it's always great to see you. >> Great to be here.>> Um, we've been remarking about sort of that, you know, on the surface everything looks calm on the, you know, index level, but then individual stocks seem to have crazy moves and you actually note that the volatility in individual stocks is mu ...

Market Performance & Earnings - Dow Jones outperformed S&P 500 and NASDAQ over the last week and month, partly due to 3M and Coca-Cola earnings [1] - The market is experiencing record earnings and profit margins with continued strong guidance [2] - The market anticipates a good size fourth quarter rally [3] Bull Market Analysis - Since 1950, the average bull market lasts about eight years, and the current bull market is in its fourth year [4] - The shortest bull market lasted 5 years, suggesting the current bull market may continue despite feeling old [5] - High volatility (VIX around 29) with a strong S&P 500 is similar to December 1998 and October 2020, which were good times to consider long equities [5] - A 10-point drop in the VIX in two days historically signals an "all clear" [6] Potential Risks & Concerns - There are cracks in the market, including regional banks and housing [7] - Lending concerns could be a potential speed bump [8] - High yield bonds weakened and regional banks have been lagging [11] Market Indicators - S&P 500's advanced decline line hit an all-time high, which historically peaks and goes lower, indicating potential underlying cracks [9] - Credit spreads are not showing massive stress [10]

Core Insights - The article discusses the investment position of the analyst in SPX, indicating a beneficial short position through various financial instruments [1]. Group 1 - The analyst expresses personal opinions regarding SPX and clarifies that no compensation is received for the article, aside from Seeking Alpha [1]. - There is no business relationship with any company mentioned in the article, emphasizing the independence of the analysis [1]. Group 2 - The article highlights that past performance does not guarantee future results, indicating a cautious approach to investment recommendations [2]. - It notes that the views expressed may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole, suggesting a diversity of opinions among analysts [2].

South Korean investors are embracing leveraged VIX bets after years of piling into Big Tech and crypto https://t.co/MGpodVtlHy ...

- The report introduces the **Cinda-VIX volatility index**, which reflects investors' expectations of future volatility in the options market. The index is based on methodologies from international practices and adjusted for the characteristics of China's options market. It includes a term structure to capture volatility expectations across different time horizons. As of October 17, 2025, the 30-day Cinda-VIX values for major indices are: 22.97 for SSE 50, 24.07 for CSI 300, 35.47 for CSI 500, and 30.70 for CSI 1000[61][62][63] - The report also discusses the **Cinda-SKEW index**, which measures the skewness of implied volatility across different strike prices of options. This index helps investors understand market expectations regarding the distribution of future returns and potential tail risks. Higher SKEW values indicate increased concerns about significant market downturns. As of October 17, 2025, the SKEW values for major indices are: 103.13 for SSE 50, 102.83 for CSI 300, 99.44 for CSI 500, and 99.76 for CSI 1000[68][72][74] - The report evaluates **four futures hedging strategies** based on CSI 500, CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices. These strategies include "continuous monthly hedging," "continuous quarterly hedging," and "minimum discount hedging." The strategies are tested over the period from July 22, 2022, to October 17, 2025. Key metrics such as annualized return, volatility, maximum drawdown, net value, annual turnover, and year-to-date returns are analyzed for each strategy. For example, the minimum discount strategy for CSI 500 futures achieved an annualized return of -1.54%, a volatility of 4.60%, and a maximum drawdown of -7.97%[44][47][46] - The **annualized basis adjustment model** is introduced to account for the impact of dividend expectations on futures basis. The formula used is: $ Annualized\ Basis = (Actual\ Basis + (Expected\ Dividend\ Points))/Index\ Price \times 360/Days\ to\ Maturity $ This adjustment ensures that the basis reflects the dividend impact during the contract's lifetime[19][20][21] - The report provides **dividend point forecasts** for the next year for major indices: CSI 500 (81.96), CSI 300 (83.80), SSE 50 (68.34), and CSI 1000 (62.81). Additionally, the dividend points for specific contracts are estimated, such as 2.16 for IC2511, 3.95 for IF2511, 4.91 for IH2511, and 1.19 for IM2511[9][11][15][17] - The **performance of the hedging strategies** for each index is detailed. For example, the minimum discount strategy for CSI 300 futures achieved an annualized return of 1.23%, a volatility of 3.07%, and a maximum drawdown of -4.06%. For SSE 50 futures, the minimum discount strategy achieved an annualized return of 1.73%, a volatility of 3.05%, and a maximum drawdown of -3.91%. For CSI 1000 futures, the minimum discount strategy achieved an annualized return of -4.17%, a volatility of 5.55%, and a maximum drawdown of -11.11%[52][56][58]

Market Sentiment - The Fear and Greed Index indicates Extreme Fear, yet the SPY is only 2% from all-time highs, suggesting a disconnect in market sentiment [1] - The Put/Call Ratio remains low, indicating that any increase in hedging may reflect panic rather than a true sentiment collapse, with the VIX above 20 signaling institutional protection [2] Regional Banks - Zions Bancorporation (ZION) has reignited concerns about bank stability by revealing new unrealized bond losses, negatively impacting other regional banks like CFG and KEY [3] - The banking sector remains fragile, with large banks better positioned but still vulnerable to investor concerns regarding financial stability [5] Earnings Season - Upcoming earnings reports from major companies such as Netflix (NFLX), Tesla (TSLA), Intel (INTC), and IBM (IBM) are expected to be significant market catalysts [6] - Analysts anticipate modest EPS growth from NFLX, mixed margins from TSLA due to pricing pressures, and continued AI momentum from INTC and IBM [6] - The results from these earnings could determine whether the current market pullback is a consolidation phase or a breakout setup as the year ends [8]

[Music] Hello and welcome to Asking for a Trend. I'm Josh Lipton and for the next half hour, we are breaking down the trends of today that'll move stocks tomorrow. There's a lot to keep track of, so we're focusing on what you need to know to get ahead of the curve here.Some of the trends we're going to be diving into. It was a rough ride on Wall Street today. Stocks taking a tumble as investors cautiously watch earnings, the trade war, and traders began buying up bonds and selling stocks.the end of the sess ...

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party content intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are advised to perform their own research and consider their financial situation before making decisions [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - It encourages users to understand how these instruments work and the associated risks before investing [1].

Core Insights - The S&P 500 experienced significant volatility, dropping 1.3% on Tuesday after a 1.6% increase on Monday, following a 2.7% decline on Friday, indicating a turbulent market environment [1] Market Performance - The S&P 500's recent performance reflects a broader trend of instability, with notable fluctuations over the past week [1] - The market is currently at an inflection point, as indicated by the spike in the VIX, suggesting increased uncertainty among investors [1]