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SKEW已达到历史高点,需警惕尾部风险
Xinda Securities· 2025-08-02 09:42
SKEW 已达到历史高点,需警惕尾部风险 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 8 月 2 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [Table_FirstAuthor] 于明明 金融工程与金融产品首席分析师 执业编号:S1500521070001 联系电话:+86 18616021459 邮 箱:yumingming@cindasc.com 证券研究报告 金工研究 [T金工ableReportType] 点评报告 于明明 金融工程与金融产品 首席分析师 执业编号:S1500521070001 联系电话:+86 18616021459 邮 箱:yumingming@cindasc.com 崔诗笛 金融工程与金融产品 金融工程分析师 执业编号:S1500523080001 联系电话:+86 18516560686 邮 箱:cuishidi@cindasc.com 孙石 金融工程与金融产品 金融工程分析师 执业编号:S1500523080010 联系电话:+86 18817366228 邮 箱:sunshi@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 ...
VIX已先行释放回暖情绪,15%的贴水还能维持多久?
Xinda Securities· 2025-06-07 08:11
Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: IC Hedging Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy is based on the analysis of basis convergence factors and optimization strategies as discussed in the Cinda Derivatives Research Report Series III[45] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: July 22, 2022, to June 6, 2025[46] - **Spot End**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index[46] - **Futures End**: Use 70% of the funds for the spot end and short the same nominal principal amount of CSI 500 index futures contracts, occupying the remaining 30% of the funds[46] - **Rebalancing Rules**: Continuously hold the quarterly/monthly contracts until the remaining days to maturity are less than 2 days, then close the position at the closing price of the day and short the next quarterly/monthly contract at the closing price of the day[46] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy performed well with positive weekly returns due to the expansion of the basis discount[49] Model Name: IF Hedging Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: Similar to the IC Hedging Strategy, based on basis convergence factors and optimization strategies[45] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: July 22, 2022, to June 6, 2025[50] - **Spot End**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index[50] - **Futures End**: Use 70% of the funds for the spot end and short the same nominal principal amount of CSI 300 index futures contracts, occupying the remaining 30% of the funds[50] - **Rebalancing Rules**: Continuously hold the quarterly/monthly contracts until the remaining days to maturity are less than 2 days, then close the position at the closing price of the day and short the next quarterly/monthly contract at the closing price of the day[50] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy performed well with positive weekly returns due to the expansion of the basis discount[54] Model Name: IH Hedging Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: Similar to the IC Hedging Strategy, based on basis convergence factors and optimization strategies[45] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: July 22, 2022, to June 6, 2025[55] - **Spot End**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index[55] - **Futures End**: Use 70% of the funds for the spot end and short the same nominal principal amount of SSE 50 index futures contracts, occupying the remaining 30% of the funds[55] - **Rebalancing Rules**: Continuously hold the quarterly/monthly contracts until the remaining days to maturity are less than 2 days, then close the position at the closing price of the day and short the next quarterly/monthly contract at the closing price of the day[55] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy performed well with positive weekly returns due to the expansion of the basis discount[58] Model Name: IM Hedging Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: Similar to the IC Hedging Strategy, based on basis convergence factors and optimization strategies[45] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: July 22, 2022, to June 6, 2025[59] - **Spot End**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index[59] - **Futures End**: Use 70% of the funds for the spot end and short the same nominal principal amount of CSI 1000 index futures contracts, occupying the remaining 30% of the funds[59] - **Rebalancing Rules**: Continuously hold the quarterly/monthly contracts until the remaining days to maturity are less than 2 days, then close the position at the closing price of the day and short the next quarterly/monthly contract at the closing price of the day[59] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy performed well with positive weekly returns due to the expansion of the basis discount[60] Model Backtesting Results - **IC Hedging Strategy**: - Annualized Return: -2.65% (monthly continuous), -1.77% (quarterly continuous), -0.74% (minimum discount strategy)[49] - Volatility: 3.91% (monthly continuous), 4.81% (quarterly continuous), 4.73% (minimum discount strategy)[49] - Maximum Drawdown: -7.51% (monthly continuous), -8.34% (quarterly continuous), -7.97% (minimum discount strategy)[49] - Net Value: 0.9264 (monthly continuous), 0.9504 (quarterly continuous), 0.9792 (minimum discount strategy)[49] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly continuous), 4 (quarterly continuous), 17.55 (minimum discount strategy)[49] - 2025 YTD Return: -2.82% (monthly continuous), -0.36% (quarterly continuous), 0.04% (minimum discount strategy)[49] - **IF Hedging Strategy**: - Annualized Return: 0.63% (monthly continuous), 0.92% (quarterly continuous), 1.46% (minimum discount strategy)[54] - Volatility: 3.05% (monthly continuous), 3.40% (quarterly continuous), 3.19% (minimum discount strategy)[54] - Maximum Drawdown: -3.95% (monthly continuous), -4.03% (quarterly continuous), -4.06% (minimum discount strategy)[54] - Net Value: 1.0181 (monthly continuous), 1.0264 (quarterly continuous), 1.0421 (minimum discount strategy)[54] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly continuous), 4 (quarterly continuous), 15.10 (minimum discount strategy)[54] - 2025 YTD Return: -0.53% (monthly continuous), 0.65% (quarterly continuous), 0.85% (minimum discount strategy)[54] - **IH Hedging Strategy**: - Annualized Return: 1.17% (monthly continuous), 2.11% (quarterly continuous), 1.83% (minimum discount strategy)[58] - Volatility: 3.17% (monthly continuous), 3.59% (quarterly continuous), 3.18% (minimum discount strategy)[58] - Maximum Drawdown: -4.22% (monthly continuous), -3.75% (quarterly continuous), -3.91% (minimum discount strategy)[58] - Net Value: 1.0337 (monthly continuous), 1.0613 (quarterly continuous), 1.0529 (minimum discount strategy)[58] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly continuous), 4 (quarterly continuous), 16.15 (minimum discount strategy)[58] - 2025 YTD Return: 0.29% (monthly continuous), 1.19% (quarterly continuous), 1.17% (minimum discount strategy)[58] - **IM Hedging Strategy**: - Annualized Return: -5.86% (monthly continuous), -4.16% (quarterly continuous), -3.46% (minimum discount strategy)[60] - Volatility: 4.75% (monthly continuous), 5.80% (quarterly continuous), 5.61% (minimum discount strategy)[60] - Maximum Drawdown: -14.00% (monthly continuous), -12.63% (quarterly continuous), -11.11% (minimum discount strategy)[60] - Net Value: 0.8528 (monthly continuous), 0.8839 (quarterly continuous), 0.9006 (minimum discount strategy)[60] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly continuous), 4 (quarterly continuous), 16.02 (minimum discount strategy)[60] - 2025 YTD Return: -7.89% (monthly continuous), -2.89% (quarterly continuous), -1.81% (minimum discount strategy)[60] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Cinda-VIX - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects the market's expectation of future volatility of the underlying asset, with a term structure to reflect expectations over different periods[63] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Algorithm Basis**: Based on the methodology discussed in the Cinda Derivatives Research Report Series IV[63] - **Current Values**: As of June 6, 2025, the 30-day VIX values for SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are 17.19, 16.45, 22.33, and 22.89, respectively[63] Factor Name: Cinda-SKEW - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the skewness of implied volatility (IV) of options with different strike prices, indicating market expectations of extreme events[68] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Algorithm Basis**: Captures the skewness in IV to reflect market expectations of future returns distribution[68] - **Current Values**: As of June 6, 2025, the SKEW values for SSE
VIX低位调整,SKEW急涨预警极端风险
Xinda Securities· 2025-05-24 10:08
Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Continuous Hedging Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy is based on the convergence of basis factors in stock index futures and optimizes hedging through continuous adjustments[47] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: From July 22, 2022, to May 23, 2025[48] - **Spot Side**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index[48] - **Futures Side**: Use 70% of the funds for the spot side and short the futures side with the same nominal principal, occupying the remaining 30% of the funds. After each rebalancing, recalculate the quantities of the spot and futures sides based on the product's net value[48] - **Rebalancing Rules**: Continuously hold quarterly/monthly contracts until the remaining time to maturity is less than 2 days. Close the position at the closing price on that day and simultaneously short the next quarterly/monthly contract at the closing price[48] - **Assumptions**: Equal allocation of principal between the spot and futures sides, excluding transaction fees, impact costs, and the indivisibility of futures contracts[48] 2. Model Name: Minimum Discount Hedging Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy selects futures contracts with the smallest annualized basis discount for hedging, aiming to optimize returns[49] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: From July 22, 2022, to May 23, 2025[49] - **Spot Side**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index[49] - **Futures Side**: Use 70% of the funds for the spot side and short the futures side with the same nominal principal, occupying the remaining 30% of the funds. After each rebalancing, recalculate the quantities of the spot and futures sides based on the product's net value[49] - **Rebalancing Rules**: Calculate the annualized basis for all tradable futures contracts on the day of rebalancing and select the contract with the smallest discount for opening a position. Hold the same contract for 8 trading days or until the remaining time to maturity is less than 2 days before selecting a new contract. Even if the result is to hold the original contract, it must still be held for 8 trading days[49] - **Assumptions**: Equal allocation of principal between the spot and futures sides, excluding transaction fees, impact costs, and the indivisibility of futures contracts[49] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Continuous Hedging Strategy - **IC (CSI 500 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: -2.50% (monthly), -1.64% (quarterly)[51] - Volatility: 3.93% (monthly), 4.83% (quarterly)[51] - Maximum Drawdown: -7.51% (monthly), -8.34% (quarterly)[51] - Net Value: 0.9312 (monthly), 0.9545 (quarterly)[51] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly)[51] - 2025 YTD Return: -2.34% (monthly), 0.05% (quarterly)[51] - **IF (CSI 300 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: 0.72% (monthly), 0.99% (quarterly)[56] - Volatility: 3.07% (monthly), 3.41% (quarterly)[56] - Maximum Drawdown: -3.95% (monthly), -4.03% (quarterly)[56] - Net Value: 1.0204 (monthly), 1.0281 (quarterly)[56] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly)[56] - 2025 YTD Return: -0.30% (monthly), 0.83% (quarterly)[56] - **IH (SSE 50 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: 1.18% (monthly), 2.14% (quarterly)[60] - Volatility: 3.18% (monthly), 3.61% (quarterly)[60] - Maximum Drawdown: -4.22% (monthly), -3.75% (quarterly)[60] - Net Value: 1.0336 (monthly), 1.0612 (quarterly)[60] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly)[60] - 2025 YTD Return: 0.28% (monthly), 1.18% (quarterly)[60] - **IM (CSI 1000 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: -5.76% (monthly), -4.12% (quarterly)[62] - Volatility: 4.76% (monthly), 5.81% (quarterly)[62] - Maximum Drawdown: -14.00% (monthly), -12.63% (quarterly)[62] - Net Value: 0.8595 (monthly), 0.8909 (quarterly)[62] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly)[62] - 2025 YTD Return: -7.32% (monthly), -2.55% (quarterly)[62] 2. Minimum Discount Hedging Strategy - **IC (CSI 500 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: -0.61%[51] - Volatility: 4.75%[51] - Maximum Drawdown: -7.97%[51] - Net Value: 0.9829[51] - Annual Turnover: 17.78[51] - 2025 YTD Return: 0.42%[51] - **IF (CSI 300 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: 1.56%[56] - Volatility: 3.20%[56] - Maximum Drawdown: -4.06%[56] - Net Value: 1.0445[56] - Annual Turnover: 14.94[56] - 2025 YTD Return: 1.09%[56] - **IH (SSE 50 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: 1.85%[60] - Volatility: 3.19%[60] - Maximum Drawdown: -3.91%[60] - Net Value: 1.0528[60] - Annual Turnover: 16.36[60] - 2025 YTD Return: 1.16%[60] - **IM (CSI 1000 Futures)**: - Annualized Return: -3.45%[62] - Volatility: 5.62%[62] - Maximum Drawdown: -11.11%[62] - Net Value: 0.9068[62] - Annual Turnover: 16.12[62] - 2025 YTD Return: -1.64%[62] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Cinda-VIX - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects investors' expectations of future volatility in the options market, with a term structure to capture different time horizons[65] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Based on methodologies from international markets, adjusted for China's options market[65] - Captures implied volatility from options prices to reflect market sentiment[65] - **Factor Values**: - 30-day VIX values as of May 23, 2025: - SSE 50: 18.91 - CSI 300: 17.52 - CSI 500: 24.78 - CSI 1000: 26.65[65][66][67] 2. Factor Name: Cinda-SKEW - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the skewness of implied volatility across different strike prices, capturing market expectations of extreme risks[72] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Analyzes the slope of implied volatility curves to assess market sentiment on tail risks[72] - Higher SKEW values indicate increased concerns about extreme downside risks[73] - **Factor Values**: - SKEW values as of May 23, 2025: - SSE 50: 107.30 - CSI 300: 108.20 - CSI 500: 101.41 - CSI 1000: 110.79[73][74][79]