Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the fiscal and monetary policies in China for the year 2026, focusing on the implications for the economy and financial markets. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Fiscal Policy Outlook for 2026** - Fiscal policy is expected to remain proactive, with a projected growth rate of approximately 1.9% in broad fiscal expenditure, despite a slight decline due to high base effects. Actual physical broad fiscal expenditure is anticipated to increase by over 1 trillion [1][4][3] 2. **Deficit and GDP Growth** - The narrow deficit rate is projected to remain around 4%, with nominal GDP growth needing to reach 4.9% to maintain this rate. The actual nominal GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2025 was about 4.1%, indicating potential discrepancies [3][4] 3. **Monetary Policy Goals** - The monetary policy for 2026 will focus on stabilizing growth, promoting inflation, and preventing risks. Expected actions include 1-2 interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [8][9][11] 4. **Banking Sector Challenges** - The net interest margin for banks has been under pressure, recorded at approximately 1.42% as of Q3 2025. Future stability in this margin is crucial for effective monetary policy transmission [15][17] 5. **Government Debt Management** - The management of local government debt is critical, with a focus on stabilizing the macro tax burden to ensure repayment capabilities. The macro tax burden is expected to slightly decline to 12.7% in 2026 [6][7] 6. **Investment Strategies** - Local government industrial guidance funds are shifting investment strategies from tax reductions to equity support, promoting a transition from land finance to equity finance [5][6] 7. **Yield Curve and Credit Premium** - A steep yield curve and positive credit premium are necessary to stabilize market expectations and enhance economic growth confidence. The 10-year government bond yield is expected to range between 1.7% and 2.0% in 2026 [2][19] 8. **Inflation and Economic Risks** - Key macroeconomic risks include inflation, liquidity flow, and regulatory policy changes. The CPI is projected to grow by 0.5% in 2025, with PPI showing a range of -0.5% to 1.0% [20] Other Important Insights 1. **Unified Market Construction** - The establishment of a unified market is essential for addressing issues related to chaotic local investment and overcapacity, which have been exacerbated by declining macro tax burdens [6] 2. **Liquidity Management** - The central bank has implemented various liquidity management tools, including open market operations, to ensure stable liquidity supply [10][11] 3. **Interest Rate Corridor Adjustments** - Changes in the interest rate corridor mechanism have been noted, with a focus on enhancing the central bank's policy rate influence [12][13] 4. **Loan and Bond Yield Relationship** - The average after-tax return on loans is currently aligned with the 10-year government bond yield, indicating limited room for further rate cuts without disrupting this balance [14] 5. **Future of Monetary Policy** - The monetary policy stance is expected to remain supportive, with potential adjustments to the 7-day reverse repurchase rate to facilitate further interest rate cuts [11][18] This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the fiscal and monetary policy outlook for 2026, highlighting the anticipated challenges and strategies within the Chinese economy.

Group 1 - The potential nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve Chair raises concerns about a possible interest rate cut, which could negatively impact the US dollar [1][2] - Market reactions to Hassett's nomination rumors have been muted, possibly due to his status as a popular candidate and recent declines in Treasury yields [1][3] - The probability of Hassett's nomination has increased by 18 percentage points to 53%, while other candidates like Christopher Waller and Kevin Walsh have lower probabilities [1][2] Group 2 - The market currently downplays risks to the independence of the Federal Reserve, despite concerns about the government's desire to lower rising national debt financing costs [3][4] - Analysts believe that the future path of interest rates will primarily depend on new economic data rather than the preferences of a potentially dovish Federal Reserve Chair [3][4] - Even if Hassett is seen as less independent compared to other candidates, his traditional economic background may prevent extreme policy shifts [3][4]

2025年11月27日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.370 | 102.416 | 105.735 | 105.745 | 107.850 | 107.910 | 114.29 | 114.5 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.422 | 102.470 | 105.980 | 105.960 | 108.220 | 108.275 | 115.16 | 115.31 | | | 涨跌 | -0.052 | -0.054 | -0.245 | -0.215 | -0.370 | -0.365 | -0.870 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond has decreased by 5 basis points to 4.45% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple Federal Reserve officials advocate for significant interest rate cuts to support the U.S. economy, arguing that current monetary policy is hindering economic growth and that there is no inflation issue to address [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - Federal Reserve Governor Milan links the deterioration of the U.S. job market to the current tight monetary policy, emphasizing the need for substantial rate cuts to prevent rising unemployment [2]. - Milan believes that the Federal Reserve should quickly lower rates to neutral levels, stating that recent economic data supports a dovish stance [2][3]. - San Francisco Fed President Daly also supports a rate cut in December, citing a greater risk of job market deterioration compared to inflation rising [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Data and Market Reactions - The U.S. September core PPI increased by 2.6% year-on-year, slightly below expectations, while retail sales rose by 0.2% month-on-month, also below forecasts [1]. - Market expectations for a December rate cut have increased, with an 84.7% probability of a 25 basis point cut according to CME FedWatch [1][5]. - Major U.S. stock indices experienced a V-shaped rebound, with the Dow Jones up 1.43% and the S&P 500 up 0.91% [1]. Group 3: Future Projections and Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will implement a rate cut in December and anticipates two additional cuts of 25 basis points each in 2026 [6]. - Analysts suggest that the potential for a "preventive rate cut" exists due to delayed economic data releases from the government shutdown, indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy [6]. - Concerns about rising inflation in the coming year are noted, leading to a cautious stance on U.S. Treasury investments [6].

每经AI快讯，11月26日，澳大利亚3年期国债收益率上升10个基点。 ...

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.422 | 102.470 | 105.980 | 105.960 | 108.220 | 108.275 | 115.16 | 115.31 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.418 | 102.472 | 105.995 | 105.980 | 108.335 | 108.330 | 115.58 | 115.63 | | | 涨跌 | 0.004 | -0.002 | -0.015 | -0.020 | -0.115 | -0.055 | -0.420 | ...

Group 1 - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond decreased by 3.07 basis points, settling at 3.9941% [1] - The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond fell by 4.44 basis points, reaching 3.4525% [1]

每经AI快讯，11月25日，日本30年期国债收益率上涨1.5个基点至3.335%；日本20年期国债收益率上涨 2.5个基点至2.820%。 ...

不断飙升的收益率会造成什么后果呢？ 1.日本要为债务支付更高的利息。23年，日本还在实行负利率时，当年为国债付了8.5万亿日元利息（占 该年财政收入的11%），除以约1200万亿债务余额，平均借款利息0.7%。 而目前，基准利率已来到0.5%，再加上投资者要求更高的风险补偿，今年借款利息可能要较23年翻一 倍，来到1. 日本国债正在被疯狂抛售。 当前十年期国债收益率已经飙升到1.78%，08年金融危机以来最高，20年期2.79%，新世纪以来最高， 30年期3.3%，历史最高。 债券价格与利率成反比，因此抛售导致的价格下跌，会造成收益率上升。笼统理解，收益率是对风险的 补偿，风险越高，投资者要求的回报就越高。 ...